Basin-scale water system operations with uncertain future climate conditions: Methodology and case studies

Water Resources Research

Volumn 46, Issue 4, 2010, Pages

  Vicuna, Sebastian ^a   Dracup, John A ^b   Lund, Jay R ^c   Dale, Larry L ^d   Maurer, Edwin P ^a  

^a PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DE CHILE   (Chile)

^b 109 McLaughlin Hall   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

California; Civil engineering department; Santa clara; Santa clara university; Usa

Indexed keywords

CALIFORNIA; CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT; FUTURE CLIMATE; SANTA CLARA; USA; WATER SYSTEM;

EID: 78650940231     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: 19447973     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2009WR007838     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Barnett, T. P., J. C. Adam, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2005), Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature, 438, 303-309, doi:10.1038/nature04141.
2. J. D. Anderson, E. P. Maurer, M. D. Dettinger, E. S. Townsley, A. Harrison, and T. Pruitt (2009), Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change, Water Resour. Res., 45, W04411, doi:10.1029/2008WR006941.
3. California Department of Water Resources (2003), California's Groundwater, Bull. 118, Sacramento, Calif.
4. Cayan, D. R., E. P. Maurer, M. D. Dettinger, M. Tyree, and K. Hayhoe (2008), Climate change scenarios for the California region, Clim. Change, 87, suppl. 1, S21-S42, doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9377-6.
5. Coe, J. J. (1990), Conjunctive use-Advantages, constraints, and examples, J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 116, 427-443, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437 (1990)116:3(427).
6. Dessai, S., and M. Hulme (2007), Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: A case study on water resources management in the east of England, Glob. Environ. Change, 17, 59-72, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.005.
7. Dettinger, M. D. (2005), From climate change spaghetti to climate change distributions for 21st century, San Francisco Estuary Watershed Sci., 3, 1-14.
8. Dettinger, M. D., D. R. Cayan, M. Meyer, and A. E. Jeton (2004), Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American river basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900- 2099, Clim. Change, 62, 283-317, doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013683. 13346.4f.
9. Faber, B. A. (2000), Real-time reservoir optimization using ensemble streamflow forecasts, Ph.D. thesis, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, N. Y.
10. Faber, B. A., and J. R. Stedinger (2001), Reservoir optimization using sampling SDP with ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasts, J. Hydrol., 249, 113-133, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00419-X.
11. Georgakakos, K. P., N. E. Graham, T. M. Carpenter, A. P. Georgakakos, and H. Yao (2005), Integrating climate-hydrology forecasts and multiobjective reservoir management for northern California, Eos Trans. AGU, 86(12), doi:10.1029/2005EO120002.
12. Hayhoe, K., et al. (2004), Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 101, 12, 422- 12, 427, doi:10.1073/pnas.0404500101.
13. Hazen, A. (1914), Storage to be provided in impounding reservoirs for municipal water supply, Trans. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., 77, 1539-1640.
14. Johnson, S. A., J. R. Stedinger, C. A. Shoemaker, Y. Li, and J. A. Tejada- Guibert (1993), Numerical solution of continuous-state dynamic programs using linear and spline interpolation, Oper. Res., 41, 484-500, doi:10.1287/opre.41.3.484.
15. Kelman, J., J. R. Stedinger, L. A. Cooper, E. Hsu, and S. Yuan (1990), Sampling stochastic dynamic programming applied to reservoir operation, Water Resour. Res., 26, 447-454.
16. Klemes, V. (1987), One hundred years of applied storage reservoir theory, Water Resour. Manage., 1, 159-175, doi:10.1007/BF00429941.
17. Klemes, V. (2000), Design implications of climate change, in Common Sense and Other Heresies: Selected Papers on Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, pp. 227-239, Can. Water Resour. Assoc., Cambridge, Ont., Canada.
18. Labadie, J. W. (2004), Optimal operation of multireservoir systems: Stateof- the-art review, J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 130, 93-111, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:2(93).
19. Lee, J.-H., and J. W. Labadie (2007), Stochastic optimization of multireservoir systems via reinforcement learning, Water Resour. Res., 43, W11408, doi:10.1029/2006WR005627.
20. Lee, S. Y., A. F. Hamlet, C. J. Fitzgerald, S. J. Burges, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2006), Optimized flood control in the Columbia River Basin for a global warming scenario, in Operating Reservoirs in Changing Conditions, edited by D. Zimbelman and W. C. Loehlein, pp. 256-271, Am. Soc. of Civ. Eng., Reston, Va.
21. Maurer, E. P. (2007), Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emissions scenarios, Clim. Change, 82, 309-325, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9180-9.
22. Maurer, E. P., and P. B. Duffy (2005), Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32(3), L03704, doi:10.1029/2004GL021462.
23. Medellin-Azuara, J., J. Harou, M. Olivares, J. Lund, R. Howitt, S. Tanaka, M. Jenkins, K. Madani, and T. Zhu (2006), Climate warming and water supply management in California, Rep. CEC-500-2005-195-SF, Calif. Energy Comm., Sacramento, Calif.
24. Medellin-Azuara, J., J. Harou, M. Olivares, K. Madani, J. Lund, R. Howitt, S. Tanaka, M. Jenkins, and T. Zhu (2008), Adaptability and adaptations of California's water supply system to dry climate warming, Clim. Change, 87, suppl. 1, S75-S90, doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9355-z.
25. Milly, P. C. D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R. M. Hirsch, Z. W. Kundzewicz, D. P. Lettenmaier, and R. J. Stouffer (2008), Stationarity is dead: Whither water management, Science, 319, 573-574, doi:10.1126/science.1151915.
26. Pierce, D. W., T. P. Barnett, B. D. Santer, and P. J. Gleckler (2009), Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 106, 8441-8446.
27. Rippl, W. (1883), The capacity of storage reservoirs for water-supply, Minutes Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng., 71, 270-278.
28. Tanaka, S. K., T. Zhu, J. R. Lund, R. E. Howitt, M. W. Jenkins, M. A. Pulido, M. Tauber, R. S. Ritzema, and I. C. Ferreira (2006), Climate warming and water management adaptation for California, Clim. Change, 76, 361-387, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9079-5.
29. Timmermann, A., J. Oberhuber, A. Bacher, M. Esch, M. Latif, and E. Roeckner (1999), Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming, Nature, 398, 694-696, doi:10.1038/19505.
30. Turgeon, A. (2007), Stochastic optimization of multireservoir operation: The optimal reservoir trajectory approach, Water Resour. Res., 43, W05420, doi:10.1029/2005WR004619.
31. Van Rheenen, N. T., A. W. Wood, R. N. Palmer, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2004), Potential implications of PCM climate change scenarios for Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin hydrology and water resources, Clim. Change, 62, 257-281, doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013686. 97342.55.
32. Vedula, S., and D. N. Kumar (1996), An integrated model for optimal reservoir operation for irrigation of multiple crops, Water Resour. Res., 32, 1101-1108, doi:10.1029/95WR03110.
33. Vicuna, S. (2007), Adaptation to climate change impacts on California water resources, Ph.D. thesis, 256 pp., Univ. of Calif., Berkeley.
34. Vicuna, S., and J. A. Dracup (2007), The evolution of climate change impact studies on hydrology and water resources in California, Clim. Change, 82, 327-350, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9207-2.
35. Yakowitz, S. (1982), Dynamic programming applications in water resources, Water Resour. Res., 18, 673-696, doi:10.1029/WR018i004p00673.
36. Yao, H., and A. Georgakakos (2001), Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios: 2. Reservoir management, J. Hydrol., 249, 176-196, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00418-8.
37. Yeh, W. W. G. (1985), Reservoir management and operations models- A state-of-the-art review, Water Resour. Res., 21, 1797-1818, doi:10.1029/WR021i012p01797.