Climate information based streamflow and rainfall forecasts for Huai River basin using hierarchical Bayesian modeling

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 18, Issue 4, 2014, Pages 1539-1548

  Chen, X ^a,f   Hao, Z ^a   Devineni, N ^b,c   Lall, U ^d,e  

^a HOHAI UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b City University of New York   (United States)

^c CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK   (United States)

^d Och Spine at New York Presbyterian Hospitals   (United States)

^e Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering Columbia University ^*  (United States)

^f CHANGJIANG WATER RESOURCES COMMISSION   (China)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; NORMAL DISTRIBUTION; RAIN; RISK MANAGEMENT; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

COEFFICIENT OF EFFICIENCIES; HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN MODELING; MULTI-LEVEL STRUCTURES; MULTI-VARIATE NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS; POSTERIOR DISTRIBUTIONS; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS; REGRESSION COEFFICIENT; WATER RISK MANAGEMENTS;

STREAM FLOW;

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CLIMATE VARIATION; CORRELATION; FORECASTING METHOD; NUMERICAL MODEL; RAINFALL; RISK ASSESSMENT; STREAMFLOW; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CHINA; HUAI RIVER;

EID: 84899639408     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-1539-2014     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Barnston, A. G., Mason, S. J., Goddard, L., Dewitt, D. G., and Zebiak, S. E.: Multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1783-1796, 2003.
2. Brahim-Belhouari, S. and Bermak, A.: Gaussian process for nonstationary time series prediction. Comput. Stat. Data Anal., 47, 705-712, 2004.
3. Candille, G. and Talagrand, O.: Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems for a scalar variable, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2131-2150, doi:10.1256/qj.04.71, 2005. (Pubitemid 41568778)
4. Cheng, Z., Xu, M., Luo, L. S., and Ding, X. J.: Climate characteristics of drought-flood abrupt change events in Huai River basin, J. China Hydrol., 32, 73-79, 2012 (in Chinese).
5. Devineni, N., Lall, U., Pederson, N., and Cook, E.: A Tree Ring based Reconstruction of Delaware River Basin Streamflow using Hierarchical Bayesian Regression, J. Climate, 26, 4357-4374, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00675.1, 2013.
6. Fritts, H. C.: Tree rings and climate, Academic Press, London, 1976.
7. Folland, C. K., Knight, J., Linderholm, H. W., Fereday, D., Ineson, S., and Hurrell, J. W.: The summer North Atlantic Oscillation: past, present, and future, J. Climate, 22, 1082-1103, 2009.
8. Gangopadhyay, S., Clark, M., and Rajagopalan, B.: Statistical downscaling using K-nearest neighbors, Water Resour. Res., 41, W02024, doi:10.1029/ 2004WR003444, 2005. (Pubitemid 40393942)
9. Gelman, A. and Hill, J.: Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/ Hierarchical Models, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, 2007.
10. Geng, Q. Z., Ding, Y. H., and Huang, C. Y.: Influences of the Extra tropical Pacific SST On the Precipitation of the North China Region, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 14, 339-349, 1997.
11. Goddard, L. and Mason, S. J.: Evaluation of the IRI's "net assessment" seasonal climate forecasts: 1997-2001, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1761-1781, 2003.
12. Gu,W., Li, C. Y.,Wang, X., and Zhou,W.: Linkage between mei-yu precipitation and North Atlantic SST on the decadal timescale, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26, 101-108, doi:10.1007/s00376-009-0101-5, 2009a.
13. Gu, W., Li, C. Y., Wang, X., Zhou, W., and Chan, J. C. L.: Interdecadal unstationary relationship between NAO and east China's summer precipitation patterns, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L13702, doi:10.1029/2009GL038843, 2009b.
14. Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M. (Eds.): The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., Vol. 134, 279 pp., AGU, Washington, D. C., doi:10.1029/GM134, 2003.
15. Knight, J. R., Folland, C. K., and Scaife, A. A.: Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026242, 2006. (Pubitemid 44945660)
16. Kwon, H.-H., Brown, C., and Lall, U.: Climate informed flood frequency analysis and prediction in Montana using hierarchical Bayesian modeling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L05404, doi:10.1029/2007GL032220, 2008. (Pubitemid 351676006)
17. Kwon, H.-H., Brown, C., Xu, K., and Lall, U.: Seasonal and annual maximum streamflow forecasting using climate information: Application to the Three Gorges Dam in the Yangtze River basin, China, Hydrol. Sci. J., 54, 582-595, 2009.
18. Lima, C. H. and Lall, U.: Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of multisite daily rainfall occurrence: Rainy season onset, peak, and end, Water Resour. Res., 45, W07422, doi:10.1029/2008WR007485, 2009.
19. Lima, C. H. and Lall, U.: Spatial scaling in a changing climate: A hierarchical bayesian model for non-stationary multi-site annual maximum and monthly streamflow, J. Hydrol., 383, 307-318, 2010.
20. Linderholm, H. W., Ou, T., Jeong, J.-H., Folland, C. K., Gong, D., Liu, H., Liu, Y., and Chen, D.: Interannual teleconnections between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Asian summer monsoon, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D13107, doi:10.1029/2010JD015235, 2011.
21. Lorenz, E. N.: Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction. MIT statistical forecasting project report no.1, contract AF 19, 604-1566, 1956.
22. Lu, R., Dong, B., and Ding, H.: Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Asian summer monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24701, doi:10.1029/2006GL027655, 2006. (Pubitemid 47277806)
23. Mason, I.: A model for assessment of weather forecasts, Aust. Met. Mag., 30, 291-303, 1982.
24. Rasmussen, C. E. and William, C. K. I.: Gaussian processes for machine learning, MIT Press, 2006.
25. Rayner, N. A., Brohan, P., Parker, D. E., Folland, C. K., Kennedy, J. J., Vanicek, M., Ansell, T. J., and Tett, S. F. B.: Improved Analyses of Changes and Uncertainties in Sea Surface Temperature Measured In Situ since the Mid-Nineteenth Century: The HadSST2 Dataset, J. Climate, 19, 446-469, doi:10.1175/JCLI3637.1, 2006.
26. Renard, B., Sun, X., and Lang, M.: Bayesian Methods for Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis, in: Extremes in a Changing Climate, 39-95, Springer Netherlands, 2013.
27. Robertson, A.W., Kirshner, S., and Smyth, P.: Downscaling of daily rainfall occurrence over northeast Brazil using a hidden Markov model, J. Climate, 17, 4407-4424, 2004. (Pubitemid 40047005)
28. Souza Filho, F. A. and Lall U.: Seasonal to interannual ensemble streamflow forecasts for Ceara, Brazil: Applications of a multivariate, semiparametric algorithm,Water Resour. Res., 39, 1307-1319, doi:10.1029/ 2002WR001373, 2003.
29. Spiegelhalter, D., Thomas, A., Best, N., and Gilks, W.: BUGS 0.5: Bayesian inference Using Gibbs Sampling-Manual (version ii), Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, 1996.
30. Westra, S. and Sharma, A.: An Upper Limit to Seasonal Rainfall Predictability?, J. Climate, 23, 3332-3351, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3212.1, 2010.
31. Wilks, D. S.: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, Access Online via Elsevier, 2011.
32. Xu, K., Brown, C., Kwon, H. H., Lall, U., Zhang, J., Hayashi, S., and Chen, Z.: Climate teleconnections to Yangtze river seasonal streamflow at the Three Gorges Dam, China, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 771-780, doi:10.1002/joc.1437, 2007. (Pubitemid 46705965)
33. Yan, D. H., Wu, D., Huang, R., Wang, L. N., and Yang, G. Y.: Drought evolution characteristics and precipitation intensity changes during alternating dry-wet changes in the Huang- Huai-Hai River basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2859-2871, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2859-2013, 2013.
34. Zhang, Y., Arthington, A. H., Bunn, S. E., Mackay, S., Xia, J., and Kennard, M.: Classification of flow regimes for environmental flow assessment in regulated rivers: the Huai River Basin, China, River Res. Applic., 28, 989-1005, doi:10.1002/rra.1483, 2012.