The Power of Social Influence on Estimation Accuracy

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

Volumn 28, Issue 3, 2015, Pages 250-261

  Gürçay, Burcu ^a   Mellers, Barbara A ^a   Baron, Jonathan ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Group decision making; Group judgment; Group versus individual incentives; Wisdom of crowds

Indexed keywords

EID: 84931835004     PISSN: 08943257     EISSN: 10990771     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/bdm.1843     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Adams, J. S. (1963). Toward an understanding of inequity. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 67, 422-436.
2. Adams, J. S. (1965). Inequity in social exchange. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology, 2, (pp. 267-296). San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
3. Asch, S. E. (1951). Effects of group pressure upon the modification and distortion of judgments. In H. Guetzkow (Ed.), Groups, leadership, and men. Pittsburgh, PA: Carnegie Press.
4. Bates, D., Maechler, M., Bolker, B., & Walker, S. (2014). lme4: Linear mixed-effects models using Eigen and S4. R package version 1.1.-7. https://github.com/lme4/lme4/http://lme4.r-forge.r-project.org/ (accessed on April 2013).
5. Beersma, B., Hollenbeck, J. R., Humphrey, S. E., Moon, H., Conlon, D. E., & Ilgen, D. R. (2003) Cooperation, competition, and team performance: Toward a contingency approach. Academy of Management Journal, 46, 572-590.
6. Best, R. J. (1974). An experiment in Delphi estimation in marketing decision making. Journal of Marketing Research, 11, 448-452.
7. Bolger, F., & Wright, G. (2011). Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from social psychological research. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 78, 1500-1513.
8. Bonner, S. E., Hastie, R., Sprinkle, G. B., & Young, S. M. (2000). A review of the effects of financial incentives on performance in laboratory tasks: Implications for management accounting, Journal of Management Accounting Research, 12, 19-64.
9. Branson, L., Steele, N. L., & Sung, C. (2010). When two heads are worse than one: Impact of group style and information type on performance evaluation, Journal of Business and Behavioral Sciences, 22(1), 75-84.
10. Brown, B. B. (1968). Delphi process: A methodology used for the elicitation of opinions of experts: An earlier paper published by RAND (document no: P-3925, 1968).
11. Cooper, R. S. (1991). Information processing in the judge-adviser system of group decision-making. Unpublished master's thesis. University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.
12. Dalkey, N., & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467.
13. De Dreu, C. K. W., Nijstad, B. A., & Van Knippenberg, D. (2008). Motivated information processing in group judgment and decision making. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 12, 22-49.
14. DeMatteo, J. S., Eby, L. T., & Sundstrom, E. (1998). Team-based rewards: Current empirical evidence and directions for future research. Research in Organizational Behavior, 20, 141-183.
15. Deutsch, M. (1949). A theory of cooperation and competition. Human Relations, 2, 129-152.
16. Farr, J. L. (1976). Incentive schedules, productivity, and satisfaction in work groups: A laboratory study. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 17, 159-170.
17. Farrell, S. (2011). Social influence benefits the wisdom of individuals in the crowd. PNAS, 108: E625.
18. Fraidin, S. N. (2004). When is one head better than two? Interdependent information in group decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 93, 102-113.
19. Gamer, M., Lemon, J., Fellows, I., & Singh, P. (2012). Irr: Various coefficients of interrater reliability and agreement. R package version 0.84.
20. Gigone, D., & Hastie, R. (1993). The common knowledge effect: Information sharing and group judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 959-974.
21. Halekoh, U., & Højsgaard, S. (2013). pbkrtest: Parametric bootstrap and Kenward Roger based methods for mixed model comparison. R package version 0.3-8. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=pbkrtest (accessed on May 2014).
22. Haran, U., Ritov, I., & Mellers, B. A. (2013). The role of actively open-minded thinking in information acquisition, accuracy, and calibration. Judgment and Decision Making, 8(3), 188-201.
23. Heneman, R. L., & von Hippel, C. (1995). Balancing group and individual rewards: Rewarding individual contributions to the team. Compensation and Benefits Review, 274, 63-68.
24. Henry, R. (1995). Improving group judgment accuracy: Information sharing and determining the best member. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 62 (8), 190-197.
25. Hertel, G., Kerr, N. L., & Messé, L. A. (2000). Motivation gains in performance groups: Paradigmatic and theoretical developments on the Kohler effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79, 580-601.
26. Janis, I. (1982). Group-think, Boston, MA: Houghton-Mifflin.
27. Kaplan, A., Skogstad, A. L., & Girshick M. (1949). The prediction of social technological events, Rand Corp. P-93.
28. Kerr, N. L., & Tindale, R. S. (2004). Group performance and decision making. Annual Review of Psychology, 55, 623-655.
29. Kozlowski, S. W. J., & Ilgen, D. R. (2006). Enhancing the effectiveness of work groups and teams. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 7, 77-124.
30. Landeta, J. (2006) Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 73, 467-482.
31. Larson, J. R., Jr., Foster-Fishman, P. G., & Keys, C. B. (1994). Discussion of shared and unshared information in decision-making groups. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67, 446-461.
32. Latané, B., Williams, K., & Harkins, S. (1979). Many hands make light the work: The causes and consequences of social loafing. The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 822-832.
33. Laughlin, P. R., & Ellis, A. L. (1986). Demonstrability and social combination processes on mathematical intellective tasks. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 22(2), 177-189.
34. Laughlin, P. R., Hatch, E. C., Silver, J. S., & Boh, L. (2006). Groups perform better than the best individuals on letters-to-numbers problems: Effects of group size. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 90, 644-651.
35. Levine, J. M., & Moreland, R. L. (1990). Progress in small group research. Annual Review of Psychology, 41, 585-634.
36. Lorenz, J., Rauhut, H., Schweitzer, F., & Helbing, D. (2011). How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect, PNAS, 108(22), 9020-9025.
37. McGrath, J. (1984). Groups: Interaction and performance. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
38. Mellers, B. A., Stone, E., Atanasov, P., Rohrbaugh, N., Metz, S. E., Ungar, L., Bishop, M. M., Horowitz, M., Merkle, E., & Tetlock, P. (2014). The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics, manuscript under review. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania.
39. Mellers, B. A., Ungar, L., Baron, J., Ramos, J., Gürçay, B., Fincher, K., Scott, S. E., Moore, D., Atanasov, P., Swift, S., Murray, T. & Tetlock, P. (2014). Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament. Psychological Science, 25(5), 1106-1115.
40. Michaelson, L. K., Watson, W. E., & Black, R. H. (1989). A realistic test of individual versus group decision making. Journal of Applied Psychology, 72, 834-839.
41. Parenté, F. J., & Anderson-Parenté, J. K. (1987). Delphi inquiry systems. In G. Wright and P. Ayton (Eds.), Judgmental forecasting. Chichester: Wiley.
42. Phillips, J. M. (1999). Antecedents of leader utilization of staff input in decision-making teams. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 77(3), 215-242.
43. Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1996). The impact of task characteristics on the performance of structured group forecasting techniques. International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 73-89.
44. Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, 15, 353-375.
45. Rowe, G., Wright, G., & McColl, A. (2005). Judgment change during Delphi-like procedures: The role of majority influence, expertise, and confidence. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72, 377-399.
46. Sackman, H. (1974). Delphi assessment: Expert opinion, forecasting and group process. R-1283-PR.
47. Sherif, M. (1936) The psychology of social norms. New York: Harper.
48. Stasser, G., Taylor, L. A., & Hanna, C. (1989). Information sampling in structured and unstructured discussions of three- and six-person groups. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 67-78.
49. Stasser, G., & Titus, W. (1987). Effects of information load and percentage of shared information on the dissemination of unshared information during group discussion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53, 81-93.
50. Surowiecki, J. (2004). The wisdom of crowds. New York: Doubleday.
51. Tindale, R. S., & Larson, J. R. (1992). Assembly bonus effect or typical group performance? A comment of Michaelsen, Watson, and Black (1989). Journal of Applied Psychology, 77, 102-105.
52. Tindale, R. S., Smith, C. M., Thomas, L. S., Filkins, J., & Sheffey, S. (1996). Shared representations and asymmetric social influence processes in small groups. In E. Witte, J. H. David (Ed.), Understanding group behavior: Consensual action by small groups (1, pp. 81-103), Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
53. Van de Ven, A. H., & Delbecq, A. L. (1974). The effectiveness of nominal, Delphi, and interacting group decision making processes. Academy of Management Journal, 17(4), 605-621.
54. Vollrath, D. A., Sheppard, B. H., Hinsz, V. B., & Davis, J. H. (1989). Memory performance by decision-making groups and individuals, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 43, 289-300.
55. Welbourne, T. M., & Gomez Mejia, L. R. (1995). Gainsharing-A critical-review and a future-research agenda. Journal of Management, 21, 559-609.
56. Wittenbaum, G. M., & Park, E. S. (2001). The collective preference for shared information. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 10, 70-73.
57. Wittenbaum, G. M., & Stasser, G. (1996). Management of information in small groups. In J. L. Nye, A. M. Brower (Eds.), What's social about social cognition (pp. 967-978). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.