The impact of task characteristics on the performance of structured group forecasting techniques

International Journal of Forecasting

Volumn 12, Issue 1, 1996, Pages 73-89

  Rowe, Gene ^a   Wright, George ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SURREY   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Delphi; Expert opinion; Forecast error; Forecast evaluation; Judgmental forecasting; Prediction

Indexed keywords

EID: 0030098406     PISSN: 01692070     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/0169-2070(95)00658-3     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Best, R.J., 1974, An experiment in Delphi estimation in marketing decision making, Journal of Marketing Research, 11, 448-452.
2. Boje, D.M. and J.K. Murnighan, 1982, Group confidence pressures in iterative decisions, Management Science, 28, 1187-1196.
3. Brockhoff, K., 1975, The performance of forecasting groups in computer dialogue and face to face discussions, in: H. Linstone and M. Turoff, eds., The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications (Addison-Wesley, London).
4. Dalkey, N.C., 1969, The Delphi method: An experimental study of group opinion, RM-5888-PR (The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica).
5. Dalkey, N.C., 1975, Towards a theory of group estimation, in: H. Linstone and M. Turoff, eds., The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications (Addison-Wesley, London).
6. Einhorn, H.J., R.M. Hogarth and E. Klempner, 1977. Quality of group judgment, Psychological Bulletin, 84, 158-172.
7. Gladstein, D., 1984, A model of task group effectiveness, Administrative Science Quarterly, 29, 499-517.
8. Hart, S.L., 1985, Toward quality criteria for collective judgments, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 36, 209-228.
9. Hill, K.Q. and J. Fowles, 1987, The methodological worth of the Delphi forecasting technique, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 7, 179-192.
10. Hogarth, R.M., 1978, A note on aggregating opinions, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 21, 40-46.
11. Isenberg, D.J., 1986, Group polarization: A critical review and meta-analysis, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 50, 1141-1151.
12. Koriat, A., S. Lichtenstein and B. Fischhoff, 1980, Reasons for confidence, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, 107-118.
13. Larreché, J.C. and R. Moinpour, 1983, Managerial judgment in marketing: The concept of expertise, Journal of Marketing Research, 20, 110-121.
14. Lichtenstein, S., B. Fischhoff and L.D. Phillips, 1982, Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980, in: D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge).
15. Linstone, H.A., 1978, The Delphi technique, in: R.B. Fowles, ed., Handbook of Futures Research (Greenwood Press, Westport, CT).
16. Martino, J., 1983, Technological Forecasting for Decision-making, 2nd edn. (American Elsevier, New York).
17. Mason, R. and I. Mitroff, 1981, Challenging strategic planning assumptions (Wiley, New York).
18. Milburn, M.A., 1978, Sources of bias in the prediction of future events, Organisational Behavior and Human Performance, 21, 17-26.
19. Parenté, F.J. and J.K. Anderson-Parenté, 1987, Delphi inquiry systems, in: G. Wright and P. Ayton, eds., Judgmental Forecasting (Wiley, Chichester).
20. Parenté, F.J., J.K. Anderson, P. Myers and T. O'Brien, 1984, An examination of factors contributing to delphi accuracy, Journal of Forecasting, 3, 173-182.
21. Rowe, G., 1992, Perspectives on expertise in the aggregation of judgments, in: G. Wright and F. Bolger, eds., Expertise and Decision Support (Plenum, New York).
22. Rowe, G., G. Wright and F. Bolger, 1991, Delphi: A reevaluation of research and theory, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 39, 235-251.
23. Sackman, H., 1975, Delphi Critique (Lexington Books, Lexington, MA).
24. Sniezek, J., 1992, Groups under uncertainty: An examination of confidence in group decision making, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 52, 124-155.
25. Sniezek, J.A. and R.A. Henry, 1989, Accuracy and confidence in group judgment, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 43, 1-28.
26. Steiner, I.D., 1972, Group Process and Productivity (Academic Press, New York).
27. Stewart, T.R., 1987, The Delphi technique and judgmental forecasting, Climatic Change, 11, 97-113.
28. Weinstein, N.D., 1980, Unrealistic optimism about future life events, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 806-820.
29. Wright, G. and P. Ayton, 1987, Task influences on judgemental forecasting, Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 28, 115-127.
30. Wright, G. and P. Ayton, 1989, Judgmental probability forecasts for personal and impersonal events, International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 117-126.
31. Wright, G. and P. Ayton, 1992, Judgmental probability forecasting in the immediate and medium term, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 51, 344-363.
32. Wright, G., G. Rowe, F. Bolger and J. Gammack, 1994, Coherence, calibration, and expertise in judgmental probability forecasting, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 57, 1-25.
33. Zakay, D., 1983, The relationship between the probability assessor and the outcomes of an event as a determiner of subjective probability, Acta Psychologica, 53, 271-280.