Towards a framework to understand purpose in Futures Studies: The role of Vickers' Appreciative System

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 75, Issue 8, 2008, Pages 1109-1127

  Burt, George ^a   van der Heijden, Kees ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF STRATHCLYDE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Appreciative System; Futures Studies; Instrumental judgments; Purpose; Reality judgments; Scenario planning; Value judgments; Vickers

Indexed keywords

AGGLOMERATION; COMPUTER NETWORKS; DECISION THEORY; PROBLEM SOLVING; URBAN PLANNING;

APPRECIATIVE SYSTEM; FUTURES STUDIES; INSTRUMENTAL JUDGMENTS; PURPOSE; REALITY JUDGMENTS; SCENARIO PLANNING; VALUE JUDGMENTS; VICKERS;

DECISION MAKING;

DECISION MAKING; ORGANIZATIONAL FRAMEWORK; PLANNING METHOD;

EID: 51549088601     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2008.03.003     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Gordon T.J., Glenn J.C., and Jakil A. Frontiers of futures research: what's next?. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 72 9 (2005) 1064-1169
2. Postma T.J.B.M., and Liebl F. How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 72 2 (2005) 161-173
3. Chermack T.J. Studying scenario planning: theory, research suggestions and hypothesis. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 72 (2005) 59-73
4. Hodgkinson G.P. Towards a (Pragmatic) science of strategic intervention: the case of scenario planning. AIM Research Working Paper Series, 012-September-2004, 1744-0009 (2004)
5. Chermack T.C., van der Merwe L., and Lynham S.A. Exploring the relationship between scenario planning and perceptions of strategic conversation quality. Futures 38 7 (2006) 767-777
6. McKiernan P. Understanding environmental context in strategic management. Int. Stud. Manage. Organ. 36 2 (Fall, 2006) 7-21
7. Kahn H., and Wiener A.J. The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years (1967), The Macmillan Company, New York
8. Wack P. Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review, Sept-Oct (1985) 73-89
9. Wack P. Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review, Nov-Dec (1985) 139-150
10. Schwartz P. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World (1991), Doubleday, New York
11. Heijden K., Bradfield R., Burt G., Cairns G., and Wright G. The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning with Scenarios (2002), John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, West Sussex
12. van der Heijden K. Scenarios, The Art of Strategic Conversation. second edition (2005), John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester
13. Burt G., Wright G., Bradfield R., Cairns G., and van der Heijden K. Limitations of PEST and its derivatives to understanding the environment: the role of scenario thinking in identifying environmental discontinuities and managing the future. Int. Stud. Manage. Organ. 36 3 (Fall 2006) 50-76
14. von Bertalanffy L. General systems theory. In: von Bertalanffy L., and Rapoport A. (Eds). General Systems: Yearbook of the Society for the Advancement of General Systems Theory vol. 1 (1956), The Society, Ann Arbour, MI 1-10
15. Ashby W.R. An Introduction to Cybernetics (1958), Methuen, London
16. Ackoff R.L. The systems revolution. Long Range Plan. 7 (1974) 2
17. Churchman C.W. The Design of Inquiring Systems (1968), Basic Books, New York
18. Morecroft J.D.W. Executive knowledge, modelling and learning. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 59 1 (1994) 9-27
19. Vennix J.A.M. Group Model Building: Facilitating Team Learning Using System Dynamics (1996), John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester
20. In: Linstone H.A., and Turoff M. (Eds). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications (2002). http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/index.html [available at: http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/index.html]
21. Checkland P. Systems Thinking, Systems Practice (1981), John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester
22. Vickers G. The Art of Judgment: A Study of Policy Making, Centenary Edition (1995), Sage, Thousand Oaks
23. Burt G. Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with the scenario methodology to help identify disruptions and discontinuities. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 74 6 (2007) 731-749
24. Weick K.E. The Social Psychology of Organising (1979), Addison Wesley, Reading, MA
25. Eden C. Strategic management as a social process. J. Manage. Stud. 29 (1992) 799-811
26. Eden C., and van der Heijden K. The theory and praxis of reflective learning in strategy making. In: Eden C., and Spender J.-C. (Eds). Managerial and Organizational Cognition: Theory, Methods and Research (1998), Sage, Thousand Oaks 58-75
27. Spender J.-C. The dynamics of individual and organizational knowledge. In: Eden C., and Spender J.-C. (Eds). Managerial and Organizational Cognition: Theory, Methods and Research (1998), Sage, Thousand Oaks 13-39
28. Michael D. Barriers and bridges to learning in a turbulent human environment. In: Gunderson L., Holling C., and Light S. (Eds). Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions (1995), New York, Columbia 461-485
29. Wack P. The gentle art of re-perceiving. Harvard University working paper (1983)
30. Slaughter R. Probing beneath the surface. Futures 21 5 (1989) 447-465
31. Inayatullah S. Deconstructing and reconstructing the future: predicative, cultural and critical epistemologies. Futures 22 2 (1990) 235-253
32. Inayatullah S. Anticipatory action learning: theory and practice. Futures 38 6 (2006) 656-666
33. Argyris C., and Schon D.A. Organizational Learning (1978), Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA
34. van der Heijden K., Bradfield R., Burt G., Cairns G., and Wright G. The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios (2002), John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester, UK
35. Smircich L., and Stubbart C. Strategic management in an enacted world. Acad. Manage. Rev. 10 4 (1985) 724-736
36. Weick K.E. Sensemaking in Organizations (1995), Sage Publications Ltd, London
37. Russo J.E., and Schoemaker P.J.H. Decision Traps (1989), Doubleday, New York
38. Simon H.A. Rational decision making in business organizations. Am. Econ. Rev. 69 (1979) 493-513
39. Watzlawick P., Weakland J., and Fisch R. Change: Principles of problem Formation and Problem Resolution (1974), W.W. Norton and Company, New York
40. Checkland P. Systems Thinking, Systems Practice (1981), John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester, UK
41. Janis I.L. Groupthink. 2nd ed. (1982), Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston, MA
42. Child J. Organizational structure, environment and performance: the role of strategic choice. Sociology 6 (1972) 1-22
43. Berger P.L., and Luckmann T. The Social Construction of Reality: A Treatise in the Sociology of Knowledge (1966), Anchor Books-Doubleday, New York
44. Morgan G. Imaginization: New Mindsets for Seeing, Organizing and Managing (1997), Berrett-Koehler Publishers Inc., San Francisco
45. Grinyer P.H., and Spender J.-C. Turnaround - Managerial Recipes for Strategic Success (1979), Associated Business Press, London
46. Spender J.-C. Industry Recipes: The Nature and Source of Managerial Judgement (1989), Basil Blackwell, Oxford
47. Eisenhardt K.M. Building theories from case study research. Acad. Manage. Rev. 14 4 (1989) 532-550
48. Argyris C. Intervention Theory and Method: A Behavioral Science View (1970), Addison Wesley, Reading MA
49. Yin R.K. Case Study Research: Design and Methods (1994), Sage Publications Limited, Beverly Hills
50. Normann R. Reframing Business, When the Map Changes the Landscape (2001), John Wiley & Sons, Chicester, West Sussex
51. Winnicott D.W. Playing and Reality. Routledge (1971) London
52. Checkland P., and Poulter J. Learning for Action, A Short Definitive Account of Soft Systems Methodology and its Use for Practitioners, Teachers and Students (2006), Wiley, Chichester
53. G. Vickers, Judgment, Chapter 16 in "The Vickers papers", edited by the Open Systems Group, Harper and Row, London, 1984.