New evaluations of simple models for small area population forecasts

Population, Space and Place

Volumn 21, Issue 4, 2015, Pages 335-353

  Wilson, Tom ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

Author keywords

Averaging; Composite; Credibility; Forecast accuracy; Forecasts; Small area

Indexed keywords

EID: 84928418734     PISSN: 15448444     EISSN: 15448452     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/psp.1847     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics). 2013. Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2012. [online dataset] Catalogue No. 3218.0. ABS: Canberra.
2. Ahlburg DA. 1987. Population forecasts for South Pacific nations using autoregressive models, 1985-2000. Journal of the Australian Population Association 4: 157-167.
3. Ahlburg DA. 1995. Simple versus complex models: evaluation, accuracy and combining. Mathematical Population Studies 5: 281-290.
4. Ahlburg D, Lutz W. 1999. Introduction: the need to rethink approaches to population forecasts. In Frontiers of Population Forecasting, Lutz W, Vaupel J, Ahlburg D (eds). Population Council: New York; 1-14.
5. Armstrong JS. 2001. Combining forecasts. In Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, Armstrong JS (ed.). Springer: New York; 417-439.
6. Assuncao RM, Schmertmann C P, Potter JE, Cavenaghi SM. 2005. Empirical Bayes estimation of demographic schedules for small areas. Demography 423: 537-558.
7. Baker J, Ruan X, Alcantara A, Jones T, Watkins K, McDaniel M, Frey M, Crouse N, Rajbhandari R, Morehouse J, Sanchez J, Inglis M, Baros S, Penman S, Morrison S, Budge T Stallcup W. 2008. Density-dependence in urban housing unit growth: an evaluation of the Pearl-Reed model for predicting housing unit stock at the census tract level. Journal of Social and Economic Measurement 33: 155-163.
8. BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 1996. Metropolitan area and BEA economic area projections of economic activity and population to the year 2005. Survey of Current Business, June: 56-72. http://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/regional/proj/1996/0696rea.pdf
9. Bell M. 1997. Small Area Forecasting for Infrastructure Planning: Towards a Better Practice. Department of Industry, Science and Tourism: Canberra.
10. Bell M, Dean C, Blake M. 2000. Forecasting the pattern of urban growth with PUP: a web-based model interfaced with GIS and 3D animation. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 24: 559-581.
11. Chi G, Voss P. 2011. Small-area population forecasting: borrowing strength across space and time. Population, Space and Place 17: 505-520.
12. Davis HC. 1995. Demographic Projection Techniques for Regions and Smaller Areas. University of British Columbia Press: Vancouver.
13. Foss W. 2002. Small area population forecasting. The Appraisal Journal 70: 163-172.
14. Goodwin P. 2009. New evidence on the value of combining forecasts. Foresight 12: 33-35.
15. Graefe A, Armstrong JS, Jones RJ, Cuzan AG. 2014. Combining forecasts: an application to elections. International Journal of Forecasting 30: 43-54. 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.005
16. Achadoorian L, Gaffin SR, Engelman R. 2011. Projecting a gridded population of the world using ratio methods of trend extrapolation. In Human Population: Its Influences on Biological Diversity, Cincotta RP, Gorenflo LJ (eds). Springer-Verlag: Berlin; 13-25.
17. Hibon M, Evgeniou T. 2005. To combine or not to combine: selecting among forecasts and their combinations. International Journal of Forecasting 12: 15-24.
18. Isserman AM. 1977. The accuracy of population projections for subcounty areas. Journal of the American Institute of Planners 43: 247-259.
19. Kapetanios G, Labhard V, Price S. 2008. Forecast combination and the Bank of England's suite of statistical forecasting models. Economic Modelling 25: 772-792.
20. Norman P. 2013. Population estimates for CAS wards in England & Wales, 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011 [dataset]. School of Geography, University of Leeds.
21. Norman P, Rees P, Boyle P. 2003. Achieving data compatibility over space and time: creating consistent geographical zones. International Journal of Population Geography 9: 365-386.
22. Norman P, Simpson L, Sabater A. 2008. 'Estimating with Confidence' and hindsight: new UK small area population estimates for 1991. Population, Space and Place 14: 449-472.
23. Openshaw S, van der Knapp G. 1983. Small area population forecasting: some experience with British models. Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie 74: 291-304.
24. Rayer S. 2008. Population forecast errors: a primer for planners. Journal of Planning Education and Research 27: 417-430.
25. Rayer S, Smith SK. 2010. Factors affecting the accuracy of subcounty population forecasts. Journal of Planning Education and Research 30: 147-161.
26. Raymer J, Wiśniowski A, Forster JJ, Smith PWF, Jakub B. 2013. Integrated modeling of European migration. Journal of the American Statistical Association. DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2013.789435
27. Rees P. 1990. Manual on subnational population projections. Unpublished manuscript, School of Geography, University of Leeds.
28. Shryock H, Siegel J. 1973. The Methods and Materials of Demography. US Government Printing Office: Washington DC.
29. Smith SK. 1987. Tests of forecast accuracy and bias for county population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association 82: 991-1003.
30. Smith S. 1997. Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models. International Journal of Forecasting 13: 557-565.
31. Smith SK, Morrison PA. 2005. Small area and business demography. In Handbook of Population, Dudley Poston D, Micklin M (eds). Springer Publishers: New York; 761-785.
32. Smith S, Rayer S. 2011. An evaluation of population forecast errors for Florida and its counties, 1980-2010. Special Population Reports Number 9. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida.
33. Smith SK, Rayer S. 2012. Projections of Florida population by county, 2011-2040. Bulletin 162 (Revised), March 2012. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida, Gainesville.
34. Smith S, Shahidullah M. 1995. An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts. Journal of the American Statistical Association 90: 64-71.
35. Smith S, Sincich T. 1988. Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors. Demography 25: 461-474.
36. Smith S, Sincich T. 1992. Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states. International Journal of Forecasting 8: 495-508.
37. Smith S, Tayman J, Swanson D. 2001. State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis. Springer: New York.
38. Statistics New Zealand. 2012. Population estimates and census counts for area units, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011 [dataset]. Statistics New Zealand: Christchurch.
39. Stigler S M. 1997. Regression towards the mean, historically considered. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 6: 103-114.
40. Swanson D A, Schlottmann A, Schmidt B. 2010. Forecasting the population of census tracts by age and sex: an example of the Hamilton-Perry method in action. Population Research and Policy Review 29: 47-63.
41. Tayman J, Swanson D A. 1999. On the validity of MAPE as a measure of population forecasting accuracy. Population Research and Policy Review 18: 299-322.
42. Vidyattama Y, Tanton R. 2010. Projecting small area statistics with Australian Spatial Microsimulation Model (SPATIALMSM). Australasian Journal of Regional Studies 16: 99-126.
43. Walters A, Cai Q. 2008. Investigating the use of Holt-Winters time series model for forecasting population at the State and sub-State levels. Paper prepared for the Population Association of American Annual Meeting, 17-19 April 2008, New Orleans, USA.
44. White HR. 1954. Empirical study of the accuracy of selected methods of projecting state populations. Journal of the American Statistical Association 29: 480-498.
45. Wilson T, Cooper J. 2013. Overview of the new Queensland demographic projection systems. Research note. Queensland Centre for Population Research, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, Brisbane.
46. Wilson T, Rees P. 1999. Linking 1991 population statistics to the 1998 local government geography of Great Britain. Population Trends 97: 37-45.
47. Wilson T, Rees P. 2005. Recent developments in population projection methodology: a review. Population, Space and Place 11: 337-360.
48. Wilson T, Rowe F. 2011. The forecast accuracy of local government area population projections: a case study of Queensland. Australasian Journal of Regional Studies 17: 204-243.