Recent developments in population projection methodology: A review

Population, Space and Place

Volumn 11, Issue 5, 2005, Pages 337-360

  Wilson, Tom ^a,b   Rees, Phil ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^b CHARLES DARWIN UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Methodology; Migration; Population projections; Probabilistic projections; Review; Scenarios

Indexed keywords

DEMOGRAPHIC METHOD; FORECASTING METHOD; METHODOLOGY;

EID: 24944562646     PISSN: 15448444     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/psp.389     Document Type: Review

References (168)

1. Abello A, Kelly S, King A. 2002. Demographic Projections with DYNAMOD-2. NATSEM Technical Paper No. 21. National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra. http:// www.natsem.canberra.edu.au/publication.jsp?titleID=TP21 [accessed 11 June 2005].
2. Abernethy VD. 2001. Comment on Bermingham's summary of the UN's year 2000 'Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining Population and Aging?' Population and Environment 22(4): 365-375. DOI: 10.1023/A:1006741420885
3. Alders M, de Beer J. 2004. Assumptions on fertility in stochastic population forecasts. International Statistical Review 72: 65-79.
4. Alho JM. 1997. Scenarios, uncertainty and conditional forecasts of the world population. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 160: 71-85.
5. Alho JM. 2002a. The population of Finland in 2050 and beyond. Discussion paper no. 826. Research Institute of the Finnish Economy: Helsinki. http://www.etla.fi/files/648_dpl826.pdf [accessed 14 June 2005].
6. Alho J. 2002b. Stochastic forecast of the Lithuanian population 2001-2050. In The Economic Effects of Ageing and Demographic Uncertainty in Lithuania, Alho JM, Jensen SHE, Lassila J, Lazutka R, Morkuiene A, Valkonen T. Research Institute of the Finnish Economy: Helsinki. http://www.etla.fi/lithuania/ [accessed 14 June 2005].
7. Alho JM, Spencer BD. 1997. The practical specification of the expected error of population forecasts. Journal of Official Statistics 13: 203-225. http://www.jos.nu/ [accessed 14 June 2005].
8. Alho JM, Nikander T. 2004. Uncertain Population of Europe-Summary Results from a Stochastic Forecast. Deliverable 12, Work Package 6, EU 5th Framework funded research project Uncertain Population of Europe (UPE), HPSE-CT-2001-00095. http://www.stat.fi/tup/euupe/ rp_reports_and_pub.html [accessed 12 June 2005].
9. Andelin J, Simpson S. 2005. POPGROUP Population Estimation and Forecasting System Reference Manual. Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research: Manchester.
10. Åslund O. 2005. Now and forever? Initial and subsequent location choices of immigrants. Regional Science and Urban Economics 35: 141-165. DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2004.02.001
11. Ballas D, Rossiter D, Thomas B, Clarke G, Dorling D. 2005. Geography Matters: Simulating the Local Impacts of National Social Policies. Joseph Rowntree Foundation: York. http://www.jrf.org.uk/bookshop/eBooks/ 1859352669.pdf [accessed 14 June 2005].
12. Bijak J, Kupiszewska D, Kupiszewski M, Saczuk K. 2005. Impact of international migration on population dynamics and labour force resources in Europe. CEFMR Working Paper 1/2005. Central European Forum for Migration Research: Warsaw. http://www.cefmr.pan.pl/docs/ cefmr_wp_2005-01.pdf [accessed 11 June 2005].
13. Bongaarts J, Bulatao RA. 1999. Completing the demographic transition. Population and Development Review 25: 515-529. DOI: 10.1111/ j.1728-4457.1999.00515.x
14. Booth H, Maindonald J, Smith L. 2002. Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline. Population Studies 56: 325-336. DOI: 10.1080/003247202762664900
15. Booth H. 2004. On the importance of being uncertain: forecasting population futures for Australia. People and Place 12(2): 1-12. http://elecpress.monash.edu.au/pnp/view/issue/ ?volume=12&issue=2 [accessed 14 June 2005].
16. Bouvier LF, Poston DL, Zhai NB. 1997. Population growth impacts of zero net international migration. International Migration Review 31: 294-311.
17. Champion T, Fotheringham. AS, Boyle P, Rees P, Stillwell J. 1998. The Determinants of Migration Flows in England: A Review of Existing Data and Evidence. Report prepared for the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions. http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/publications/ DeterminantsOfMigration/report.pdf [accessed 14 June 2005].
18. Champion T, Fotheringham S, Rees P, Bramley G, et al. 2002. Development of a Migration Model. Office of the Deputy Prime Minister: London. http://www.odpm.gov.uk/stellent/groups/odpm_housing/ documents/page/odpm_house_601865.pdf [accessed 11 June 2005].
19. Champion T, Bramley G, Fotheringham S, Macgill J, Rees P, 2003. A migration modelling system to support government decision-making. In Planning Support Systems in Practice, Geertman S, Stillwell J (eds). Springer: Berlin; 269-290.
20. Coleman DA. 2002. Replacement migration, or why everyone is going to have to live in Korea: a fable for our times from the United Nations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 357: 583-598.
21. Coleman DA, Scherbov S. 2005. Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries - towards a new demographic transition. Paper presented at the Population Association of America Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, March 31-April 2. 2005, Session 98, 1 April. http:// www.apsoc.ox.ac.uk/Oxpop/publications%20files/WP29.pdf [accessed 14 June 2005].
22. Courgeau D. 1995. Migration theories and behavioural models. International Journal of Population Geography 1: 19-27.
23. Cruijsen H, Keilman N. 1984. Prognose van de bevolking van Nederland na 1980. Deel 2: Modelbouw en hypothe-sevorming. Staatsuitgeverij: The Hague.
24. Cushing B, Poot J. 2004. Crossing boundaries and borders: regional science advances in migration modelling. Papers in Regional Science 83: 317-338. DOI: 10.1007/s10110-003-0188-5
25. Dang TT, Antolin P, Oxley H. 2001. Fiscal implications of ageing: projections of age-related spending. OECD Economics Department Working Paper 305. OECD: Paris. http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/ 2001doc.nsf/linkto/eco-wkp(2001)31. Also published in OECD Economic Outlook June 2001: 1. IV. Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/1/22/ 2085481.pdf [accessed 14 June 2005].
26. de Beer J. 1997. The effect of uncertainty of migration on national population forecasts: the case of the Netherlands. Journal of Official Statistics 13: 227-243. http://www.jos.nu/ [accessed 14 June 2005].
27. de Beer J. 2000. Dealing with uncertainty in population forecasting. Demographic Working Paper, Statistics Netherlands. http://www.cbs.nl/en/publications/articles/population-society/ population/dealing-with-uncertainty.pdf [accessed 14 June 2005].
28. de Beer J, Alders M. 1999. Probabilistic population and household forecasts for the Netherlands. Paper prepared for the joint ECE-Eurostat work session on demographic projections, Perugia, Italy, 3-7 May 1999. http://www.unece.org/stats/documents/1999/05/projections/ 45.e.pdf [accessed 14 June 2005].
29. Department of Health. 1997. Planning the Medical Workforce. Medical Workforce Standing Advisory Committee: Third Report. http:// www.dh.gov.uk/assetRoot/04/03/91/27/04039127.pdf [accessed 14 June 2005].
30. Egidi V. 2003. Health status of older people. Genus LIX(1): 169-200.
31. Ekamper P. 1997. Future age-conscious manpower planning in the Netherlands. International Journal of Manpower 18: 232-247.
32. Espenshade TJ. 1994. Can immigration slow US population aging? Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 13: 759-768.
33. Flood J, Maher C, Newton P, Roy J. 1991. The Determinants of Internal Migration in Australia. CSIRO: Melbourne.
34. Fotheringham AS, Rees P, Champion T, Kalogirou S, Tremayne AR. 2004. The development of a migration model for England and Wales I: overview and modelling out-migration. Environment and Planning A 36: 1633-1672. DOI: 10.1068/a36136
35. GAD. 2004. Projections Database. http://www.gad.gov.uk/Population/ index.asp [accessed 11 June 2005].
36. Gans de HA. 1999. Population Forecasting 1895-1945: The Transition to Modernity. Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht.
37. Goldstein J, Lutz W, Scherbov S. 2003. Long-term population decline in Europe: the relative importance of tempo effects and generational length. Population and Development Review 29: 699-707. DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2003.00699.x
38. Goujon A, Lutz W. 2004. Future human capital: Population projections by level of education. In The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century: New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development, Lutz W, Sanderson WC, Scherbov S (eds). Earthscan: London; 121-157.
39. Guest RS, McDonald IM. 2000. Population ageing and projections of government social outlays in Australia. Australian Economic Review 33: 49-64. DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.00135
40. Gullickson A. 2001. Multiregional probabilistic forecasting. Paper presented at the Young Scientists Summer Program Midsummer Workshop, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, July 2001, Vienna, Austria.
41. Gullickson A, Moen J. 2001. The use of stochastic methods in local area population forecasts. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, March 2001, Washington, DC.
42. Haskey J. 2000. Projections of the population by ethnic group: a sufficiently interesting or definitely necessary exercise to undertake? Population Trends 102: 34-40. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/ downloads/theme_Population/PT102book_v3.pdf [accessed 14 June 2005].
43. Haskey J (ed.). 2002. Population Projections by Ethnic Group: A Feasibility Study. Stationery Office: London. http:// www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/SMPS_67_v2.pdf [accessed 11 June 2005].
44. Heering L, Keilman N. 2004. Expert Views on Population Forecasts and their Uncertainty. Report for Project Stochastic Population Projections for the EEA, Eurostat. Available from the first author at Heeringνidi.nl.
45. Hilderink H, van der Gaag N, van Wissen L, Jennissen R, Roman A, Salt J, Clarke J, Pinkerton C. 2003. Analysis and forecasting of international migration by major groups (part III). Eurostat Working Paper 3/2002/E/ no.17, European Commission, Luxembourg. http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu. int/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-CC-03-002/KS-CC-03-002-EN. PDF [accessed 14 June 2005].
46. Hollmann FW, Mulder TJ, Kallan JE. 2000. Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100. Population Division Working Paper No. 38, US Census Bureau, Department of Commerce, Washington, DC. http://www.census.gov/population/www/ documentation/twps0038.pdf [accessed 14 June 2005].
47. Hugo G. 1999. Regional development through immigration? The reality behind the rhetoric. Research Paper 9 1999-2000, Parliament of Australia, Canberra. http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rp/1999-2000/ 2000rp09.htm [accessed 14 June 2005].
48. Immigrant Statistics OPCS. 1979. Population of New Commonwealth and Pakistani ethnic origin: new projections. Population Trends 16: 22-27.
49. Keilman N. 1997. Ex-post errors in official population forecasts in industrialized countries. Journal of Official Statistics 13: 245-277. http://www.jos.nu/ [accessed 14 June 2005].
50. Keilman N. 1999. How accurate are the United Nations world population projections? In Frontiers of Population Forecasting, Lutz W, Vaupel JW, Ahlburg DA (eds). Population Council: New York; 15-41. Reprinted supplement to Population and Development Review 24 (4).
51. Keilman N. 2001. Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95. Population Studies 55: 149-164.
52. Keilman N, Pham DQ. 2000. Predictive intervals for age-specific fertility. European Journal of Population 16: 41-66.
53. Keilman N, Pham DQ. 2004. Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area. Discussion Papers 386. Statistics Norway: Oslo. http:// www.ssb.no/publikasjoner/DP/pdf/dp386.pdf [accessed 12 June 2005].
54. Keilman N, Pham DQ, Hetland A. 2001. Norway's uncertain demographic future. Statistics Norway Social and Economic Studies no. 105. Statistics Norway: Oslo. http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/02/03/ sos105_en/ [accessed 14 June 2005].
55. King D, Hayden J, Jackson R, Holmans A, Anderson D. 2000. Population of households in England to 2021. Population Trends 99: 13-19. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme∝pulation/PT99book.pdf [accessed 14 June 2005].
56. Kippen R, McDonald P. 1998. Achieving population targets for Australia: an analysis of the options. People and Place 6(2): 11-23. http://elecpress.monash.edu.au/pnp/free/pnpv6n2/mcdkipp3.htm [accessed 14 June 2005].
57. Kupiszewski M, Kupizewska D. 2003. Internal migration component in subnational population projections in member states of the European Union. Working Paper 2/2003, Central European Forum for Migration Research, Warsaw. http://www.cefmr.pan.pl/docs/cefmr_wp_2003-02.pdf [accessed 11 June 2005].
58. Ledent J. 1980. Constructing multiregional life tables using place-of-birth-specific migration data. Working Paper WP-80-096, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. http:// www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/pubsrch?WT80096 [accessed 14 June 2005].
59. Lee R. 1993. Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: age patterns, range and ultimate level. International Journal of Forecasting 9: 187-202. DOI: 10.1016/0169-2070(93)90004-7
60. Lee R. 1999. Probabilistic approaches to population forecasting. In Frontiers of Population Forecasting, Lutz W, Vaupel JW, Ahlburg DA (eds). Population Council: New York; 156-190. Reprinted supplement to Population and Development Review 24(4).
61. Lee R. 2000. The Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality, with various extensions and applications. North American Actuarial Journal 4: 80-93.
62. Lee RD, Carter LR. 1992. Modeling and forecasting US mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association 87: 659-671.
63. Lee RD, Tuljapurkar S. 1994. Stochastic population forecasts for the United States: beyond high, medium and low. Journal of the American Statistical Association 89: 1175-1189.
64. Lee R, Tuljapurkar S. 1998. Uncertain demographic futures and social security finances. American Economic Review 88: 237-241.
65. Lee R, Miller T, Edwards RD. 2003. The growth and aging of California's population: demographic and fiscal projections, characteristics and service needs. Special Report, California Policy Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, US. http:// www.ucop.edu/cprc/pubsspser.html#sb910 [accessed 14 June 2005].
66. Leiwen J, O'Neill BC. 2004. Toward a new model for probabilistic household forecasts. International Statistical Review 72: 51-64.
67. Leslie PH. 1945. On the use of matrices in certain population dynamics. Biometrika 33: 183-212.
68. Leslie PH. 1948. Some further notes on the use of matrices in population mathematics. Biometrika 35: 213-245.
69. Lutz W, Sanderson W, Scherbov S. 1996. Probabilistic population projections based on expert opinion. In The Future Population of the World: What Can We Assume Today? (2nd edn), Lutz W (ed.). Earthscan: London; 397-428.
70. Lutz W, Sanderson W, Scherbov S. 1997. Doubling of world population unlikely. Nature 387: 803-805.
71. Lutz W, Scherbov S. 1998. An expert-based framework for probabilistic national population projections: the example of Austria. European Journal of Population 14: 1-17.
72. Lutz W, Scherbov S. 1999. First probabilistic population projections for the European Union. In Compendium of Family Studies in Austria 1999, Lutz W (eds). Austrian Institute for Family Studies: Vienna; 123-139.
73. Lutz W, Goujon A, Doblhammer-Reiter G. 1999. Demographic dimensions in forecasting: Adding education to age and sex. In Frontiers of Population Forecasting, Lutz W, Vaupel J, Ahlburg D (eds). The Population Council: New York; 42-58. Supplement to Population and Development Review 24(4).
74. Lutz W, Goujon A. 2001. The world's changing human capital stock: Multi-state population projections by educational attainment. Population and Development Review 27: 323-339. DOI: 10.1111/ j.1728-4457.2001.00323.x
75. Lutz W, Sanderson W, Scherbov S. 2001a. The end of world population growth. Nature 412(6846): 543-545. DOI: 10.1038/35087589
76. Lutz W, Sherbov S, van Aardt C. 2001b. South Africa's uncertain demographic present and future. Interim Report IR-01-019, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publication/Documents/IR-01-019.pdf. [Accessed 18 June 2005].
77. Lutz W, Scherbov S. 2002. Can immigration compensate for Europe's low fertility? Interim Report IR-02-052, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/ Publications/Documents/IR-02-052.pdf.
78. Lutz W, O'Neill BC, Scherbov S. 2003a. Europe's population at a turning point. Science 299: 1991-1992. DOI: 10.1126/ science.1080316.
79. Lutz W, Scherbov S, Sanderson W. 2003b. The end of population growth in Asia. Journal of Population Research 20: 125-141.
80. Lutz W, Scherbov S. 2004a. Probabilistic population projection for Singapore and Asia. Innovation 5(1) 44-45.
81. Lutz W, Scherbov S. 2004b. Probabilistic population projections for India with explicit consideration of the education-fertility link. International Statistical Review 72: 81-92.
82. Lutz, W, Sanderson WC, Scherbov S (eds). 2004. The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century. Earthscan: London.
83. Mathematical Population Studies 5.3. 1995. Special issue on Population projections: simple versus complex models.
84. McDonald P. 2001. Medium and Long-term Projections of Housing Needs in Australia: Positioning Paper. Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Canberra. http://www.ahuri.edu.au/global/docs/ pp_projections.pdf?CFID=215249&CFTOKEN=38959577
85. Miller T. 2002. California's uncertain population future. Unpublished paper, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, US. Appendix to Lee, Miller and Edwards (2003). http:// www.demog.berkeley.edu/_e1tmiller/papers/p2002.california.forecast.pdf [Accessed 7 June 2004].
86. Murphy M. 2002. Consistency in considerations for population projections by ethnic group, and the possible role of microsimulation models. In Population Projections by Ethnic Group: A Feasibility Study, Haskey J (ed.). Stationery Office: London; 17-26. http:// www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/SMPS_67_v2.pdf [Accessed 14 June 2005].
87. Murphy M, Wang D. 1999. Forecasting British families into the twenty-first century. In Changing Britain: Families and Households in the 1990s, McRae S (ed.). Oxford University Press: Oxford; 100-137.
88. Nair PS. 1985. Estimation of period-specific gross flows from limited data. Demography 22: 133-142.
89. National Research Council (Panel on Population Projections). 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. National Academy Press: Washington, DC.
90. O'Neill BC. 2004. Conditional probabilistic population projections: an application to climate change. International Statistical Review 72: 167-184.
91. O'Neill BC, Scherbov S, Lutz W. 1999. The long-term effect of the timing of fertility decline on population size. Population and Development Review 25: 749-756. DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.1999.00749.x
92. ONS. 2005. Ethnic Projections. Proposed Methodology: Summary Report. Office for National Statistics, Titchfield. Available from Pete Large, Ethnic Projections Project, e-mail Pete.Largens.gsi.gov.uk.
93. OECD. 1996. Ageing in OECD Countries: A Critical Policy Challenge. Social Policy Studies no.20. Organisation for Economic Development and Cooperation: Paris.
94. Plane DA. 1993. Requiem for the fixed-transition-probability migrant. Geographical Analysis 25: 211-223.
95. Population and Environment 22(4), March 2001, 355-409. DOI: 10.1023/A:1006782904046 to DOI: 10.1023/A:1006749722702
96. Rees P. 1994. Key issues in subnational projection models. Working Paper 94/8, School of Geography, University of Leeds.
97. Rees P. 1997. Problems and solutions in forecasting geographical populations. Journal of the Australian Population Association 14: 145-166.
98. Rees P. 2002. New models for projecting UK ethnic group populations at national and subnational scales. In Population Projections by Ethnic Group: A Feasibility Study, Haskey J (ed.). Stationery Office: London: 27-51. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/ theme_population/SMPS_67_v2.pdf [Accessed 14 June 2005].
99. Rees P, Turton I. 1998. Investigation of the effects of input uncertainty on population forecasting. Paper prepared for the GeoComputation 98 Conference, Bristol, UK, 17-19 September 1998. http:// www.geocomputation.org/1998/23/gc_23.htm [accessed 18 June 2005].
100. Rees P, Kupiszewski M, Eyre H, Wilson T, Durham H. 2001. The evaluation of regional population projections for the European Union. Eurostat Working Paper, Population and Social Conditions 3/2001/E/no 9. European Commission: Luxembourg. Catalogue No. KA-AP-01-041-EN-I. http:// epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int/portal/page [Accessed 18 June 2005].
101. Rees P, Fotheringham AS, Champion T. 2003. Modelling migration for policy analysis. In Applied GIS and Spatial Analysis, Stillwell J, Clarke G (eds). John Wiley & Sons: Chichester: 259-296.
102. Renshaw AE, Haberman S. 2003. Lee-Carter mortality forecasting with age-specific enhancement. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 33: 255-272. DOI: 10.1016/S0167-6687(03)00138-0
103. Rogers A. 1966. Matrix methods of population analysis. Journal of the American Institute of Planners 32(1): 40-44.
104. Rogers A. 1975. Introduction to Multiregional Mathematical Demography. John Wiley: New York.
105. Rogers A. 1976. Shrinking large-scale population projection models by aggregation and decomposition. Environment and Planning A 8: 515-541.
106. Rogers A. 1986. Parameterised multistate population dynamics and projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81: 48-61.
107. Rogers A. 1990. Requiem for the net migrant. Geographical Analysis 22: 283-300.
108. Rogers A. 1995. Multiregional Demography: Principles, Methods and Extensions. John Wiley: Chichester.
109. Rogers A, Raquillet R, Castro LJ. 1978. Model migration schedules and their applications. Environment and Planning A 10: 475-502.
110. Rogers A, Willekens F. 1986. Migration and Settlement: A Multiregional Comparative Study. Reidel: Dordrecht.
111. Rogers A, Little J, Raymer J. 1999. Disaggregating the historical sources of regional foreign-born and native-born population growth in the United States: a new method with applications. International Journal of Population Geography 5: 449-475.
112. Sanderson WC, Scherbov S, Lutz W, O'Neill BC. 2004. Applications of probabilistic population forecasting. In The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century, Lutz W, Sanderson WC, Scherbov S (eds). Earthscan: London; 85-119.
113. Schoen R. 1988. Modeling Multigroup Populations. Plenum Press: New York.
114. Shaw C. 2004. Interim 2003-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries. Population Trends 118: 6-16. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/ theme_population/PT118_V1.pdf [Accessed 18 June 2005].
115. Siegel JS. 2002. The demography of the labor force and the workforce of organisations. In Applied Demography: Applications to Business, Government, Law and Public Policy. Academic Press: San Diego; 329-395.
116. Simpson L. 2002. Estimating methodologies and assumptions for projections: current practice for population projections by ethnic group. In Population Projections by Ethnic Group: A Feasibility Study, Haskey J (ed.). Stationery Office: London; 53-72. http:// www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/SMPS_67_v2.pdf [Accessed 18 June 2005].
117. Simpson S (ed.). 1998. Making Local Population Statistics: A Guide for Practitioners. Local Authorities Research and Intelligence Association: Wokingham. Available from LARIA, 9 Cortland Road, Nunthorpe, Middlesbrough, TS7 OJX. E-mail: lariaofficeαol.com.
118. Smeeding T. 2003. Income maintenance in old age: current status and future prospects for rich countries. Genus LIX(1): 51-83.
119. Smith KD, Perez-Johnson I, Wooldridge J. 2000. Uncertainty and forecasting local health professional shortages. Population Research and Policy Review 19: 477-503. DOI: 10.1023/A:1010700930344
120. Smith SK, Sincich T. 1988. Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors. Demography 25: 461-474.
121. Smith SK, Shahidullah M. 1995. An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts. Journal of the American Statistical Association 90: 64-71.
122. Smith SK, Tayman J, Swanson DA. 2001. State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis. Kluwer Academic: New York.
123. Smith SK, Tayman J. 2003. An evaluation of population projections by age. Demography 40: 741-757.
124. Smith SK, Tayman J. 2004. Confidence intervals for population forecasts: a case study of time series models for states. Paper prepared for the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Boston, 1-3 April 2004. http://paa2004.princeton.edu/ download.asp?submissionId=40269 [Accessed 19 June 2005].
125. Statistics Finland. 2004. A Forecast of the Population of Europe 2004-2050. http://www.stat.fi/tup/euupe/ [Accessed 12 June 2005].
126. Stillwell J, Eyre H, Rees PH, Bucher H, Salt J, Clarke J. 1999. Regional International Migration and Inter-Regional Migration. Final Report prepared for the European Commission Directorate General XVI (Regional Policy and Cohesion) and EUROSTAT (Statistical Office of the European Communities) for EDRF Study No. 98/00/27/174.
127. Stone R. 1971. An integrated system of demographic manpower and social statistics and its links with the system of national economic accounts. Sankhya B 33: 1-184.
128. Stoto MA. 1983. The accuracy of population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association 78: 13-20.
129. Sweeney SH, Konty KJ. 2002. Population forecasting with nonstationary multiregional growth matrices. Geographical Analysis 34: 289-312.
130. Taylor J. 2003. Population futures in the Australian desert. Australian Geographer 34: 355-370. DOI: 10.1080/ 0004918032000152438
131. Tayman J, Swanson DA. 1996. On the utility of population forecasts. Demography 33: 523-528.
132. Tayman J, Schafer E, Carter L. 1998. The role of population size in the determination and prediction of population forecast errors: an evaluation using confidence intervals for subcounty areas. Population Research and Policy Review 17: 1-20. DOI: 10.1023/ A:1005766424443
133. Tayman J, Swanson DA. 1999. On the validity of MAPE as a measure of population forecast accuracy. Population Research and Policy Review 18(4): 299-322. DOI: 10.1023/A:1006166418051
134. Tayman J, Swanson DA, Barr CF. 1999. In search of the ideal measure of accuracy for subnational demographic forecasts. Population Research and Policy Review 18(5): 387-409. DOI: 10-1023/A: 1006317430570
135. Tomassini C, Wolf DA. 2000. Shrinking kin networks in Italy due to sustained low fertility. European Journal of Population 16: 353-372.
136. Tuljapurkar S, Li N, Boe C. 2000. A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries. Nature 405(6788): 789-792. DOI: 10.1038/35015561
137. United Nations. 1975. Towards a System of Social and Demographic Statistics. Studies in Methods, Series F, no. 18. Document ST/EAS/ STAT/ser.F18. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistical Office. United Nations: New York.
138. United Nations. 2000. Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? Publication ESA/P/WP.160. Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. United Nations: New York. http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/ migration/migration.htm [Accessed 19 June 2005].
139. United Nations. 2004. World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision. Volume III. Analytical Report. United Nations: New York. Executive summary available via http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/ wpp2002/WPP2002_Vol3.htm [Accessed 19 June 2005].
140. US Census Bureau. 2004. US Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin. http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/ [Accessed 19 June 2005].
141. van der Gaag N, van Imhoff E, van Wissen L. 1997a. Internal Migration in the Countries of the European Union. Report with Full Tables. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute: The Hague.
142. van der Gaag N, van Imhoff E, van Wissen L. 1997b. Long-term Internal Migration Scenarios for the Countries of the European Union. Eurostat Working Paper 5/1997/E/no.5. European Commission: Luxembourg.
143. van der Gaag N, van Wissen L. 1999. Analysis and Forecasting of International Migration by Major Groups (Part II). Eurostat Working Paper 3/1999/E/no.9. European Commission: Luxembourg.
144. van der Gaag N, van Imhoff E, van Wissen L. 2000. Internal migration scenarios and regional population projections for the European Union. International Journal of Population Geography 6: 1-19. DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1220(200001/02)6:1 < 1::AIDIJPG170>3.0.CO;2-3
145. van der Gaag N, van Wissen L. 2001. Determinants of the subnational distribution of immigration. Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie 92: 27-41.
146. van der Gaag N, van Wissen L, Rees P, Stillwell J, Kupiszewski M. 2003a. Study of Past and Future Interregional Migration Trends and Patterns within European Union countries: In Search for a Generally Applicable Explanatory Model. Report to Eurostat, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute: The Hague, Netherlands.
147. van der Gaag N, van Wissen L, Stillwell J, Rees P, Kupiszewski M. 2003b. In search for a general model of interregional migration. Paper prepared for the European Population Conference, 26-30 August 2003, Warsaw, Poland.
148. van Imhoff E. 1990. The exponential multidimensional demographic projection model. Mathematical Population Studies 2(3): 171-182.
149. van Imhoff E, Keilman NW. 1991. LIPRO 2.0: An Application of a Dynamic Demographic Projection Model to Household Structure in The Netherlands. NIDI CBGS Publications no. 23. Swets & Zeitlinger: Amsterdam/Lisse. http://www.nidi.knaw.nl/en/output/nidicbgs/ nidicbgs-publ-23.pdf/nidicbgs-publ-23.pdf [Accessed 14 June 2005].
150. van Imhoff E, Henkens K. 1998. The budgetary dilemmas of an ageing workforce: a scenario study of the public sector in the Netherlands. European Journal of Population 14:39-59. http:// www.nidi.knaw.nl/en/output/1998/ejp-14-01-vanimhoff.pdf/ ejp-14-01-vanimhoff.pdf [Accessed 14 June 2005].
151. van Imhoff E, Post W. 1998. Microsimulation methods for population projection. Population: An English Selection 10: 97-138.
152. van Imhoff E, van Wissen L, Spiess K. 1994. Regional Population Projections in the Countries of the European Economic Area. NIDI/CBGS Publications no. 31, Swets & Zeitlinger: Amsterdam/Lisse.
153. van Imhoff E, van der Gaag N, van Wissen L, Rees P. 1997. The selection of internal migration models for European regions. International Journal of Population Geography 3:137-159. DOI: 10.1002/ (SICI)1099-1220 (199706)3:2<137::AID-IJPG63>3.0.CO;2-R
154. Whelpton PK. 1936. An empirical method for calculating future population. Journal of the American Statistical Association 31: 457-473.
155. Willekens F. 1982. Multidimensional population analysis with incomplete data. In Multidimensional Mathematical Demography, Land KC, Rogers A (eds). Academic Press: New York; 43-111.
156. Willekens FJ. 1990. Demographic forecasting: state-of-the-art and research needs. In Emerging Issues in Demographic Research, Hazeu CA, Frinking CAB (eds). Elsevier Science: Amsterdam; 9-66.
157. Wilmoth JR. 1996. Mortality projection in Japan: a comparison of four methods. In Health and Mortality Among Elderly Populations, Caselli G, Lopez AD (eds). Clarendon Press: Oxford; 266-287.
158. Wilson T. 2004. The application of a probabilistic framework to New Zealand's official national population projections. QCPR Discussion Paper 2004/02, School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia. http:// www.geosp.uq.edu.au/qcpr/Homepage/discussion_papers/ 2004-02_FrameworkNZ.pdf [Accessed 11 June 2005].
159. Wilson T, Bell M. 2004a. Australia's uncertain demographic future. Demographic Research 11, article 8. http:// www.demographic-research.org/ [Accessed 19 June 2005].
160. Wilson T, Bell M. 2004b. Probabilistic regional population forecasts: the example of Queensland, Australia. QCPR Discussion Paper 2004/04, Queensland Centre for Population Research, School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia. http:// www.geosp.uq.edu.au/qcpr/Homepage/discussion_papers/ 2004-04_ProbabilisticRegionPopulationForecast.pdf [Accessed 11 June 2005].
161. Wilson T, Hollis J, Rees P. 2002. Providing a population projection framework. In Development of a Migration Model, Champion T, Fotheringham S, Rees P, Bramley G, et al. Office of the Deputy Prime Minister: London; 239-249. http://www.odpm.gov.uk/stellent/groups/ odpm_housing/documents/page/odpm_house_601865.pdf [Accessed 11 June 2005].
162. Wittenberg R, Pickard L, Comas-Herrera A, Davies B. 2001. Demand for long-term care for older people in England to 2031. Health Statistics Quarterly 12: 5-17. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/ theme_health/HSQ12_v2.pdf [Accessed 19 June 2005].
163. Wolf DA. 2004. Another variation on the Lee-Carter model. Paper prepared for the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Boston, 1-3 April 2004. http://paa2004.princeton.edu/ download.asp?submissionId=41245 [Accessed 19 June 2005].
164. Zaidi A, Rake K. 2001. Dynamic microsimulation models: a review and some lessons for SAGE. SAGE Discussion Paper no. 2. ESRC SAGE Research Group, London School of Economics. http://www.lse.ac.uk/ collections/SAGE/pdf/SAGE_DP2.pdf [Accessed 19 June 2005].
165. Zavodny M. 1999. Determinants of recent immigrants' locational choices. International Migration Review 33: 1014-1030.
166. Zeng Y, Vaupel JW, Wang Z. 1997. A multi-dimensional model for projecting family households - with an illustrative numerical application. Mathematical Population Studies 6: 187-216.
167. Zeng Y, Vaupel JW, Zhenglian W. 1999. Household projection using conventional demographic data. In Frontiers of Population Forecasting, Lutz W, Vaupel JW, Ahlburg DA (eds). Population Council: New York; 59-87. Supplement to Population and Development Review 24(4).
168. Zeng Y, Stallard E, Wang Z. 2005. Estimating time-varying age-sex-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation. Demographic Research 11, article 10. http://www.demographic-research.org/ [Accessed 19 June 2005].