메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 17, Issue 5, 2011, Pages 505-520

Small-area population forecasting: Borrowing strength across space and time

Author keywords

Neighbour characteristics; Neighbour growth; Population forecasting; Small area; Spatio temporal regression

Indexed keywords

CENSUS; DECISION MAKING; DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY; FORECASTING METHOD; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION GROWTH; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 79957968619     PISSN: 15448444     EISSN: 15448452     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/psp.617     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (33)

References (45)
  • 1
    • 0020190331 scopus 로고
    • How accurate are the US Bureau of the Census projections of total live births
    • Ahlburg D. 1982. How accurate are the US Bureau of the Census projections of total live births. Journal of Forecasting 1: 365-374.
    • (1982) Journal of Forecasting , vol.1 , pp. 365-374
    • Ahlburg, D.1
  • 3
    • 0036862865 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Under the hood: issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models
    • Anselin L. 2002. Under the hood: issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models. Agricultural Economics 27: 247-267.
    • (2002) Agricultural Economics , vol.27 , pp. 247-267
    • Anselin, L.1
  • 5
    • 19044394287 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Building a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for Ireland
    • Ballas D, Clarke GP, Wiemers E. 2005. Building a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for Ireland. Population, Space and Place 11: 157-172.
    • (2005) Population, Space and Place , vol.11 , pp. 157-172
    • Ballas, D.1    Clarke, G.P.2    Wiemers, E.3
  • 6
    • 12944316903 scopus 로고
    • The edge of the metropolis: the wave theory analog approach
    • Boyce BN. 1966. The edge of the metropolis: the wave theory analog approach. British Columbia Geographical Series 7: 31-40.
    • (1966) British Columbia Geographical Series , vol.7 , pp. 31-40
    • Boyce, B.N.1
  • 7
    • 69249184454 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can knowledge improve population forecasts at subcounty levels?
    • Chi G. 2009. Can knowledge improve population forecasts at subcounty levels? Demography 46: 405-427.
    • (2009) Demography , vol.46 , pp. 405-427
    • Chi, G.1
  • 8
    • 38049043440 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial regression models for demographic analysis
    • Chi G, Zhu J. 2008. Spatial regression models for demographic analysis. Population Research and Policy Review 27: 17-42.
    • (2008) Population Research and Policy Review , vol.27 , pp. 17-42
    • Chi, G.1    Zhu, J.2
  • 11
    • 0035000914 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamic models in space and time
    • Elhorst JP. 2001. Dynamic models in space and time. Geographical Analysis 33: 119-140.
    • (2001) Geographical Analysis , vol.33 , pp. 119-140
    • Elhorst, J.P.1
  • 12
    • 38849103611 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Putting people into place
    • Entwisle B. 2007. Putting people into place. Demography 44: 687-703.
    • (2007) Demography , vol.44 , pp. 687-703
    • Entwisle, B.1
  • 13
    • 85125949755 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Urban and spatial demography
    • In, Poston DL, Micklin M (eds): Springer: New York
    • Fossett M. 2005. Urban and spatial demography. In Handbook of Population, Poston DL, Micklin M (eds): Springer: New York; 479-524.
    • (2005) Handbook of Population , pp. 479-524
    • Fossett, M.1
  • 15
    • 0004296209 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 4th ed. Prentice Hall: Upper Saddle River, NJ.
    • Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis, 4th ed. Prentice Hall: Upper Saddle River, NJ.
    • (2000) Econometric Analysis
    • Greene, W.H.1
  • 16
    • 0034492785 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The three Georgias: emerging realignments at the dawn of the new millennium
    • Hartshorn TA, Walcott SM. 2000. The three Georgias: emerging realignments at the dawn of the new millennium. Southeastern Geographer 41: 127-150.
    • (2000) Southeastern Geographer , vol.41 , pp. 127-150
    • Hartshorn, T.A.1    Walcott, S.M.2
  • 17
    • 80051971331 scopus 로고
    • The accuracy of population projections for subcounty areas
    • Isserman A. 1977. The accuracy of population projections for subcounty areas. Journal of the American Planning Association 50: 208-221.
    • (1977) Journal of the American Planning Association , vol.50 , pp. 208-221
    • Isserman, A.1
  • 19
    • 24944553192 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How accurate are the United Nations world population projections?
    • In, Ahlburg D (ed.): The Population Council: New York
    • Keilman N. 1999. How accurate are the United Nations world population projections? In Frontiers of Population Forecasting, Ahlburg D (ed.): The Population Council: New York; 15-41.
    • (1999) Frontiers of Population Forecasting , pp. 15-41
    • Keilman, N.1
  • 21
    • 84995448243 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: some isomorphisms
    • In, Land KC, Schneider SH (eds): D. Reidel: Boston
    • Land KC, Schneider SH. 1987. Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: some isomorphisms. In Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences, Land KC, Schneider SH (eds): D. Reidel: Boston; 7-31.
    • (1987) Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences , pp. 7-31
    • Land, K.C.1    Schneider, S.H.2
  • 22
    • 0029544485 scopus 로고
    • Complexity, accuracy, and utility of official population projections
    • Long J. 1995. Complexity, accuracy, and utility of official population projections. Mathematical Population Studies 5: 203-216.
    • (1995) Mathematical Population Studies , vol.5 , pp. 203-216
    • Long, J.1
  • 26
    • 35848971032 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Geographic Information Systems and spatial data processing in demography: a review
    • Reibel M. 2007. Geographic Information Systems and spatial data processing in demography: a review. Population Research and Policy Review 26: 601-618.
    • (2007) Population Research and Policy Review , vol.26 , pp. 601-618
    • Reibel, M.1
  • 28
    • 84945611269 scopus 로고
    • Growth pole spillovers: the dynamics of backwash and spread
    • Richardson H. 1976. Growth pole spillovers: the dynamics of backwash and spread. Regional Studies 10: 1-9.
    • (1976) Regional Studies , vol.10 , pp. 1-9
    • Richardson, H.1
  • 29
    • 0023530374 scopus 로고
    • Tests of forecast accuracy and bias for county population projections
    • Smith SK. 1987. Tests of forecast accuracy and bias for county population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association 82: 991-1003.
    • (1987) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.82 , pp. 991-1003
    • Smith, S.K.1
  • 30
    • 0026948888 scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states
    • Smith SK, Sincich T. 1992. Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states. International Journal of Forecasting 8: 495-508.
    • (1992) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 495-508
    • Smith, S.K.1    Sincich, T.2
  • 33
    • 0029767351 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The accuracy of small-area population forecasts based on a spatial interaction and land-use modeling system
    • Tayman J. 1996. The accuracy of small-area population forecasts based on a spatial interaction and land-use modeling system. Journal of the American Planning Association 62: 85-98.
    • (1996) Journal of the American Planning Association , vol.62 , pp. 85-98
    • Tayman, J.1
  • 34
    • 69249181060 scopus 로고
    • The impact of coefficient drift and measurement error on the accuracy of ratio-correlation population estimates
    • Tayman J, Schafer E. 1985. The impact of coefficient drift and measurement error on the accuracy of ratio-correlation population estimates. Review of Regional Studies 15: 3-10.
    • (1985) Review of Regional Studies , vol.15 , pp. 3-10
    • Tayman, J.1    Schafer, E.2
  • 35
    • 34548220478 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models
    • Tayman J, Smith SK, Lin J. 2007. Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models. Population Research and Policy Review 26: 347-369.
    • (2007) Population Research and Policy Review , vol.26 , pp. 347-369
    • Tayman, J.1    Smith, S.K.2    Lin, J.3
  • 36
    • 0030281020 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the utility of population forecasts
    • Tayman J, Swanson DA. 1996. On the utility of population forecasts. Demography 33: 523-528.
    • (1996) Demography , vol.33 , pp. 523-528
    • Tayman, J.1    Swanson, D.A.2
  • 37
    • 79957948480 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The cascade GIS diffusion model for measuring housing absorption by small area with a case study of St. Lucie County, Florida
    • Thrall GI, Sidman CF, Thrall SE, Fik TJ. 2001. The cascade GIS diffusion model for measuring housing absorption by small area with a case study of St. Lucie County, Florida. The Journal of Real Estate Research 8: 401-420.
    • (2001) The Journal of Real Estate Research , vol.8 , pp. 401-420
    • Thrall, G.I.1    Sidman, C.F.2    Thrall, S.E.3    Fik, T.J.4
  • 38
    • 0000565591 scopus 로고
    • A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region
    • Tobler W. 1970. A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geography 46: 234-240.
    • (1970) Economic Geography , vol.46 , pp. 234-240
    • Tobler, W.1
  • 40
    • 33644889904 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Highways and population change
    • Voss PR, Chi G. 2006. Highways and population change. Rural Sociology 71: 33-58.
    • (2006) Rural Sociology , vol.71 , pp. 33-58
    • Voss, P.R.1    Chi, G.2
  • 41
    • 80051990346 scopus 로고
    • Refinements to Small Area Population Models: Results of a Test Based on 128 Wisconsin Communities. Paper read at the Annual Meeting of Population Association of America, 28-30 March, Boston.
    • Voss PR, Kale BD. 1985. Refinements to Small Area Population Models: Results of a Test Based on 128 Wisconsin Communities. Paper read at the Annual Meeting of Population Association of America, 28-30 March, Boston.
    • (1985)
    • Voss, P.R.1    Kale, B.D.2
  • 42
    • 80051982440 scopus 로고
    • Wisconsin Small-Area Baseline Population Projections. Working report. Applied Population Laboratory, and Demographic Services Center: Madison, WI.
    • Voss PR, Kale BD. 1986. Wisconsin Small-Area Baseline Population Projections. Working report. Applied Population Laboratory, and Demographic Services Center: Madison, WI.
    • (1986)
    • Voss, P.R.1    Kale, B.D.2
  • 43
    • 24944562646 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recent developments in population projection methodology: a review
    • Wilson T, Rees P. 2005. Recent developments in population projection methodology: a review. Population, Space and Place 11: 337-360.
    • (2005) Population, Space and Place , vol.11 , pp. 337-360
    • Wilson, T.1    Rees, P.2
  • 44
    • 80052002682 scopus 로고
    • Wisconsin Department of Administration. Official Population Projections for Wisconsin Municipalities: 1990-2015. Data report. Demographic Services Center, Wisconsin Department of Administration: Madison, WI.
    • Wisconsin Department of Administration. 1993. Official Population Projections for Wisconsin Municipalities: 1990-2015. Data report. Demographic Services Center, Wisconsin Department of Administration: Madison, WI.
    • (1993)
  • 45
    • 80051961224 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wisconsin Department of Administration. Methodology for Developing Minor Civil Division Projections. Available at [accessed April 1, 2010].
    • Wisconsin Department of Administration. 2004. Methodology for Developing Minor Civil Division Projections. Available at [accessed April 1, 2010].
    • (2004)


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.