Predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle

Global Change Biology

Volumn 21, Issue 5, 2015, Pages 1737-1751

  Luo, Yiqi ^a,b   Keenan, Trevor F ^c,d   Smith, Matthew ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

^b TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^d MICROSOFT RESEARCH   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change; Data assimilation; Data model fusion; Disturbance events and regimes; Mathematical model of carbon cycle; Model tractability and traceability; Parameterization; Soil carbon dynamics; Vegetation

Indexed keywords

CARBON CYCLE; CARBON SEQUESTRATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; DATA ASSIMILATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION; SOIL CARBON; TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM; VEGETATION;

CARBON CYCLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; PHOTOSYNTHESIS; PHYSIOLOGY; THEORETICAL MODEL;

CARBON CYCLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PHOTOSYNTHESIS;

EID: 84927962256     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12766     Document Type: Article

References (102)

1. Adair EC, Parton WJ, Del Grosso SJ et al. (2008) Simple three-pool model accurately describes patterns of long-term litter decomposition in diverse climates. Global Change Biology, 14, 2636-2660.
2. Adams B, White A, Lenton TM (2004) An analysis of some diverse approaches to modelling terrestrial net primary productivity. Ecological Modelling, 177, 353-391.
3. Allison SD, Wallenstein MD, Bradford MA (2010) Soil-carbon response to warming dependent on microbial physiology. Nature Geoscience, 3, 336-340.
4. Arora VK, Boer GJ (2005) Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 110, G02008.
5. Austin AT, Vivanco L (2006) Plant litter decomposition in a semi-arid ecosystem controlled by photodegradation. Nature, 442, 555-558.
6. Baldocchi D (2008) Breathing of the terrestrial biosphere: lessons learned from a global network of carbon dioxide flux measurement systems. Australian Journal of Botany, 56, 1-26.
7. Ballantyne AP, Alden CB, Miller JB, Tans PP, White JWC (2012) Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years. Nature, 488, 70-+.
8. Baudena M, Rietkerk M (2012) Complexity and coexistence in a simple spatial model for arid savanna ecosystems. Theoretical Ecology, 6, 131-141.
9. Bolin B, Eriksson E (1958) Changes in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere and sea due to fossil fuel combustion. In: The Atmosphere and the Sea in Motion: Scientific Contributions to the Rossby Memorial Volume (ed. Bolin B), pp. 130-142. Rockefeller Institute Press, New York.
10. Bolker BM, Pacala SW, Parton WJ (1998) Linear analysis of soil decomposition: insights from the century model. Ecological Applications, 8, 425-439.
11. Bowman DM, Balch JK, Artaxo P et al. (2009) Fire in the Earth system. Science, 324, 481-484.
12. Bridgham SD, Richardson CJ (1992) Mechanisms controlling soil respiration (Co2 and Ch4) in southern peatlands. Soil Biology & Biochemistry, 24, 1089-1099.
13. Burke IC, Kaye JP, Bird SP, Hall SA, Mcculley RL, Sommerville GL (2003) Evaluating and Testing Models of Terrestrial Biogeochemistry: The Role of Temperature in Controlling Decomposition, pp. 225-253. Models in ecosystem science. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
14. Cernusak LA, Winter K, Dalling JW et al. (2013) Tropical forest responses to increasing atmospheric CO2: current knowledge and opportunities for future research. Functional Plant Biology, 40, 531-551.
15. Chapin FS, Shaver GR, Giblin AE, Nadelhoffer KJ, Laundre JA (1995) Responses of arctic tundra to experimental and observed changes in climate. Ecology, 76, 694-711.
16. Cox PM, Betts RA, Jones CD, Spall SA, Totterdell IJ (2000) Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model (vol 408, pg 184, 2000). Nature, 408, 750-750.
17. Cox PM, Betts RA, Collins M, Harris PP, Huntingford C, Jones CD (2004) Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 137-156.
18. Cramer W, Bondeau A, Woodward FI et al. (2001) Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Global Change Biology, 7, 357-373.
19. Davidson EA, Samanta S, Caramori SS, Savage K (2012) The Dual Arrhenius and Michaelis-Menten kinetics model for decomposition of soil organic matter at hourly to seasonal time scales. Global Change Biology, 18, 371-384.
20. Denman KL, Brasseur G, Chidthaisong A et al. (2007) Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry. Climate Change, 2007, 541-584.
21. Domingues TF, Meir P, Feldpausch TR et al. (2010) Co-limitation of photosynthetic capacity by nitrogen and phosphorus in West African woodlands. Plant Cell and Environment, 33, 959-980.
22. Emanuel WR, Killough GG, Olson JS (1981) Modelling the circulation of carbon in the world's terrestrial ecosystems. In: Carbon Cycle Modelling (ed. Bolin B), pp. 335-353. JOHN WILEY & SONS, Chichester, New York, Brisbane, Toronto.
23. Farquhar GD, Caemmerer SV, Berry JA (1980) A biochemical-model of photosynthetic Co2 assimilation in leaves of C-3 species. Planta, 149, 78-90.
24. Foley JA, Defries R, Asner GP et al. (2005) Global consequences of land use. Science, 309, 570-574.
25. Fox A, Williams M, Richardson AD et al. (2009) The REFLEX project: comparing different algorithms and implementations for the inversion of a terrestrial ecosystem model against eddy covariance data. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 1597-1615.
26. Franks PJ, Adams MA, Amthor JS et al. (2013) Sensitivity of plants to changing atmospheric CO2 concentration: from the geological past to the next century. New Phytologist, 197, 1077-1094.
27. Friedlingstein P, Cox P, Betts R et al. (2006) Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the (CMIP)-M-4 model intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19, 3337-3353.
28. Frolking S, Palace MW, Clark DB, Chambers JQ, Shugart HH, Hurtt GC (2009) Forest disturbance and recovery: a general review in the context of spaceborne remote sensing of impacts on aboveground biomass and canopy structure. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 114, G00E02.
29. Grace M, Hütt MT (2013) Predictability of spatio-temporal patterns in a lattice of coupled FitzHugh-Nagumo oscillators. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 10, 20121016.
30. Grace J, Mitchard E, Gloor E (2014) Perturbations in the carbon budget of the tropics. Global Change Biology, 20, 3238-3255.
31. Hararuk O, Xia J, Luo Y (2014) Evaluation and improvement of a global land model against soil carbon data using a Bayesian MCMC method. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 119, 403-417.
32. Harmon ME, Silver WL, Fasth B et al. (2009) Long-term patterns of mass loss during the decomposition of leaf and fine root litter: an intersite comparison. Global Change Biology, 15, 1320-1338.
33. Heisenberg W, Maclachlan J (1958) Physics and philosophy: the revolution of modern science. Vol. 19 of World Perspectives. By Werner Heisenberg. Harper & Brothers Publishers, New York.
34. Higgins SI, Scheiter S (2012) Atmospheric CO2 forces abrupt vegetation shifts locally, but not globally. Nature, 488, 209-212.
35. Hirota M, Holmgren M, Van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2011) Global resilience of tropical forest and savanna to critical transitions. Science, 334, 232-235.
36. Houghton RA, House JI, Pongratz J et al. (2012) Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change. Biogeosciences, 9, 5125-5142.
37. Hu FS, Higuera PE, Walsh JE, Chapman WL, Duffy PA, Brubaker LB, Chipman ML (2010) Tundra burning in Alaska: linkages to climatic change and sea ice retreat. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 115, G04002.
38. Jung M, Reichstein M, Ciais P et al. (2010) Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply. Nature, 467, 951-954.
39. Jung M, Reichstein M, Margolis HA et al. (2011) Global patterns of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, latent heat, and sensible heat derived from eddy covariance, satellite, and meteorological observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 116, G00J07.
40. Kao RH, Gibson CM, Gallery RE et al. (2012) NEON terrestrial field observations: designing continental-scale, standardized sampling. Ecosphere, 3, 1-17.
41. Kauwe MG, Medlyn BE, Zaehle S et al. (2013) Forest water use and water use efficiency at elevated CO2: a model-data intercomparison at two contrasting temperate forest FACE sites. Global Change Biology, 19, 1759-1779.
42. Keeling CD, Whorf TP, Wahlen M, Vanderplicht J (1995) Interannual Extremes in the rate of rise of atmospheric carbon-dioxide since 1980. Nature, 375, 666-670.
43. Keenan TF, Baker I, Barr A et al. (2012) Terrestrial biosphere model performance for inter-annual variability of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. Global Change Biology, 18, 1971-1987.
44. Keenan TF, Davidson EA, Munger JW, Richardson AD (2013) Rate my data: quantifying the value of ecological data for the development of models of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Ecological Applications, 23, 273-286.
45. Korner C, Asshoff R, Bignucolo O et al. (2005) Carbon flux and growth in mature deciduous forest trees exposed to elevated CO2. Science, 309, 1360-1362.
46. Kuzyakov Y, Friedel JK, Stahr K (2000) Review of mechanisms and quantification of priming effects. Soil Biology & Biochemistry, 32, 1485-1498.
47. Le Quere C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature Geoscience, 2, 831-836.
48. Lorenz EN (1969) The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus, 21, 289-307.
49. Luo YQ, Weng ES (2011) Dynamic disequilibrium of the terrestrial carbon cycle under global change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 26, 96-104.
50. Luo Y, Wan S, Hui D, Wallace L (2001) Acclimatization of soil respiration to warming in a tall grass prairie. Nature, 413, 622-625.
51. Luo YQ, White LW, Canadell JG et al. (2003) Sustainability of terrestrial carbon sequestration: a case study in Duke Forest with inversion approach. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 17, 1021, doi:10.1029/2002GB001923.
52. Luo YQ, Randerson JT, Abramowitz G et al. (2012) A framework for benchmarking land models. Biogeosciences, 9, 3857-3874.
53. Mack MC, D'antonio CM (1998) Impacts of biological invasions on disturbance regimes. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 13, 195-198.
54. Mack MC, Bret-Harte MS, Hollingsworth TN, Jandt RR, Schuur EAG, Shaver GR, Verbyla DL (2011) Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundra wildfire. Nature, 475, 489-492.
55. Matamala R, Jastrow JD, Miller RM, Garten CT (2008) Temporal changes in C and N stocks of restored prairie: implications for C sequestration strategies. Ecological Applications, 18, 1470-1488.
56. May RM (1976) Simple mathematical-models with very complicated dynamics. Nature, 261, 459-467.
57. Mcguire AD, Sitch S, Clein JS et al. (2001) Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 15, 183-206.
58. Meentemeyer V (1978) Macroclimate and lignin control of litter decomposition rates. Ecology, 59, 465-472.
59. Niu SL, Luo YQ, Fei SF et al. (2012) Thermal optimality of net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and underlying mechanisms. New Phytologist, 194, 775-783.
60. Odum EP (1969) The strategy of ecosystem development. Science, 164, 261-270.
61. Olson JS (1963) Energy storage and the balance of producers and decomposers in ecological systems. Ecology, 44, 322-331.
62. Pickett ST, White PS (1985) The Ecology of Natural Disturbance and Patch Dynamics. Academic press, Orlando, Florida.
63. Raczka BM, Davis KJ, Huntzinger DN et al. (2013) Evaluation of continental carbon cycle simulations with North American flux tower observations. Ecological Monographs, 83, 531-556.
64. Randerson JT, Hoffman FM, Thornton PE et al. (2009) Systematic assessment of terrestrial biogeochemistry in coupled climate-carbon models. Global Change Biology, 15, 2462-2484.
65. Raupach MR, Rayner PJ, Barrett DJ et al. (2005) Model-data synthesis in terrestrial carbon observation: methods, data requirements and data uncertainty specifications. Global Change Biology, 11, 378-397.
66. Reichstein M, Bahn M, Ciais P et al. (2013) Climate extremes and the carbon cycle. Nature, 500, 287-295.
67. Reynolds JF, Acock B (1985) Predicting the response of plants to increasing carbon-dioxide - a critique of plant-growth models. Ecological Modelling, 29, 107-129.
68. Running SW (2008) Ecosystem disturbance, carbon, and climate. Science, 321, 652-653.
69. Running SW, Nemani RR, Heinsch FA, Zhao MS, Reeves M, Hashimoto H (2004) A continuous satellite-derived measure of global terrestrial primary production. BioScience, 54, 547-560.
70. Rustad LE (2008) The response of terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change: towards an integrated approach. Science of the Total Environment, 404, 222-235.
71. Schädel C, Luo Y, Evans RD, Fei S, Schaeffer SM (2013) Separating soil CO2 efflux into C-pool-specific decay rates via inverse analysis of soil incubation data. Oecologia, 171, 721-732.
72. Schaefer K, Schwalm CR, Williams C et al. (2012) A model-data comparison of gross primary productivity: results from the North American Carbon Program site synthesis. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 117, G03010.
73. Scheffer M, Carpenter S, Foley JA, Folke C, Walker B (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature, 413, 591-596.
74. Schlesinger WH, Bernhardt ES (2013) Biogeochemistry: An Analysis of Global Change. Academic press, Waltham, Massachusetts.
75. Schuur EAG, Vogel JG, Crummer KG, Lee H, Sickman JO, Osterkamp TE (2009) The effect of permafrost thaw on old carbon release and net carbon exchange from tundra. Nature, 459, 556-559.
76. Schwalm CR, Williams CA, Schaefer K et al. (2010) A model-data intercomparison of CO2 exchange across North America: results from the North American Carbon Program site synthesis. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 115, G00H05.
77. Smith L (2007) Chaos: A Very Short Introduction. OUP, Oxford.
78. Smith MJ, Purves DW, Vanderwel MC, Lyutsarev V, Emmott S (2013) The climate dependence of the terrestrial carbon cycle, including parameter and structural uncertainties. Biogeosciences, 10, 583-606.
79. Starfield AM, Chapin FS (1996) Model of transient changes in arctic and boreal vegetation in response to climate and land use change. Ecological Applications, 6, 842-864.
80. Staver AC, Levin SA (2012) Integrating theoretical climate and fire effects on savanna and forest systems. American Naturalist, 180, 211-224.
81. Staver AC, Archibald S, Levin SA (2011) The global extent and determinants of savanna and forest as alternative biome states. Science, 334, 230-232.
82. Suding KN, Hobbs RJ (2009) Threshold models in restoration and conservation: a developing framework. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 24, 271-279.
83. Tarnocai C, Canadell JG, Schuur EAG, Kuhry P, Mazhitova G, Zimov S (2009) Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 23, GB2023.
84. Todd-Brown K, Randerson J, Post W, Hoffman F, Tarnocai C, Schuur E, Allison S (2013) Causes of variation in soil carbon simulations from CMIP5 Earth system models and comparison with observations. Biogeosciences, 10, 1717-1736.
85. Vanderwel MC, Coomes DA, Purves DW (2013) Quantifying variation in forest disturbance, and its effects on aboveground biomass dynamics, across the eastern United States. Global Change Biology, 19, 1504-1517.
86. Wang YP, Law RM, Pak B (2010) A global model of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles for the terrestrial biosphere. Biogeosciences, 7, 2261-2282.
87. Wang WL, Ciais P, Nemani RR et al. (2013) Variations in atmospheric CO2 growth rates coupled with tropical temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110, 13061-13066.
88. Wang YP, Chen BC, Wieder WR et al. (2014) Oscillatory behavior of two nonlinear microbial models of soil carbon decomposition. Biogeosciences, 11, 1817-1831.
89. Weintraub MN, Schimel JP (2003) Interactions between carbon and nitrogen mineralization and soil organic matter chemistry in arctic tundra soils. Ecosystems, 6, 129-143.
90. Weng ES, Luo YQ, Wang WL et al. (2012) Ecosystem carbon storage capacity as affected by disturbance regimes: a general theoretical model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 117, G03014.
91. Westerling AL, Turner MG, Smithwick EAH, Romme WH, Ryan MG (2011) Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 13165-13170.
92. Wieder WR, Bonan GB, Allison SD (2013) Global soil carbon projections are improved by modelling microbial processes. Nature Climate Change, 3, 909-912.
93. Williams M, Schwarz PA, Law BE, Irvine J, Kurpius MR (2005) An improved analysis of forest carbon dynamics using data assimilation. Global Change Biology, 11, 89-105.
94. Williams CA, Collatz GJ, Masek J, Goward SN (2012) Carbon consequences of forest disturbance and recovery across the conterminous United States. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 26, GB1005.
95. Xia JY, Luo YQ, Wang YP, Weng ES, Hararuk O (2012) A semi-analytical solution to accelerate spin-up of a coupled carbon and nitrogen land model to steady state. Geoscientific Model Development, 5, 1259-1271.
96. Xia J, Luo Y, Wang YP, Hararuk O (2013) Traceable components of terrestrial carbon storage capacity in biogeochemical models. Global Change Biology, 19, 2104-2116.
97. Yang YH, Luo YQ, Finzi AC (2011) Carbon and nitrogen dynamics during forest stand development: a global synthesis. New Phytologist, 190, 977-989.
98. Yuan WP, Luo YQ, Richardson AD et al. (2009) Latitudinal patterns of magnitude and interannual variability in net ecosystem exchange regulated by biological and environmental variables. Global Change Biology, 15, 2905-2920.
99. Zaehle S, Friend AD, Friedlingstein P, Dentener F, Peylin P, Schulz M (2010) Carbon and nitrogen cycle dynamics in the O-CN land surface model: 2. Role of the nitrogen cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 24, GB1006.
100. Zeng N, Mariotti A, Wetzel P (2005) Terrestrial mechanisms of interannual CO(2) variability. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 19, GB1016.
101. Zhang DQ, Hui DF, Luo YQ, Zhou GY (2008) Rates of litter decomposition in terrestrial ecosystems: global patterns and controlling factors. Journal of Plant Ecology, 1, 85-93.
102. Zhou T, Shi PJ, Hui DF, Luo YQ (2009) Global pattern of temperature sensitivity of soil heterotrophic respiration [Q(10)] and its implications for carbon-climate feedback. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 114, G02016.