Terrestrial biosphere model performance for inter-annual variability of land-atmosphere CO 2 exchange

Global Change Biology

Volumn 18, Issue 6, 2012, Pages 1971-1987

  Keenan, T F ^a   Baker, Ian ^b   Barr, Alan ^c   Ciais, Philippe ^d   Davis, Ken ^e   Dietze, Michael ^f   Dragoni, Danillo ^g   Gough, Christopher M ^h   Grant, Robert ⁱ   Hollinger, David ^j   Hufkens, Koen ^k   Poulter, Ben ^d   Mccaughey, Harry ^l   Raczka, Brett ^e   Ryu, Youngryel ^m   Schaefer, Kevin ⁿ   Tian, Hanqin ^o   Verbeeck, Hans ^p   Zhao, Maosheng ^q   Richardson, Andrew D ^a  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Department of Mechanical Engineering   (United States)

^c ENVIRONMENT CANADA   (Canada)

^d LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

^e PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^f UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA CHAMPAIGN   (United States)

^g INDIANA UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^h VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH UNIVERSITY   (United States)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA   (Canada)

^j USDA FOREST SERVICE   (United States)

^k BOSTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^l QUEEN S UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^m Seoul National University   (South Korea)

ⁿ UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^o AUBURN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^p GHENT UNIVERSITY   (Belgium)

^q UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA   (United States)

more..

Author keywords

Biosphere atmosphere interaction; Carbon fluxes; Carbon sequestration; Interannual variability; Process based models; Remote sensing

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL VARIATION; ATMOSPHERE-BIOSPHERE INTERACTION; CARBON DIOXIDE; CARBON FLUX; CARBON SEQUESTRATION; MODELING; REMOTE SENSING;

NORTH AMERICA;

EID: 84860682871     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02678.x     Document Type: Article

References (80)

1. Arain MA, Yuan F, Andrew Black T (2006) Soil-plant nitrogen cycling modulated carbon exchanges in a western temperate conifer forest in Canada. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 140, 171-192, doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.03.021.
2. Baker IT, Prihodko L, Denning AS, Goulden M, Miller S, da Rocha HR (2008) Seasonal drought stress in the Amazon: reconciling models and observations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, G00B01, doi: 10.1029/2007JG000644.
3. Barr AG, Black TA, Hogg EH, Kljun N, Morgenstern K, Nesic Z (2004) Inter-annual variability in the leaf area index of a boreal aspen-hazelnut forest in relation to net ecosystem production. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 126, 237-255, doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.06.011.
4. 2 flux measurement uncertainty estimates for NACP. EOS Transactions, American Geophysical Union, (Fall Meeting Supplement) 90, Abstract B54A-04.
5. Beer C, Reichstein M, Tomelleri E et al. (2010) Terrestrial gross carbon dioxide uptake: global distribution and covariation with climate. Science, 329, 834-838, doi: 10.1126/science.1184984.
6. Bousquet P, Peylin P, Ciais P, Le Quér C, Friedlingstein P, Tans PP (2000) Regional changes in carbon dioxide fluxes of land and oceans since 1980. Science, 290, 1342-1347.
7. Bradford JB, Birdsey RA, Joyce LA, Ryan MG (2008) Tree age, disturbance history, and carbon stocks and fluxes in subalpine Rocky Mountain forests. Global Change Biology, 14, 2882-2897, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01686.x.
8. Braswell BH, Sacks WJ, Linder E, Schimel DS (2005) Estimating diurnal to annual ecosystem parameters by synthesis of a carbon flux model with eddy covariance net ecosystem exchange observations. Global Change Biology, 11, 335-355, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00897.x
9. Chen B, Black TA, Coops NC, Krishnan P, Jassal R, Brümmer C, Nesic Z (2009) Seasonal controls on interannual variability in carbon dioxide exchange of a near-end-of rotation Douglas-fir stand in the Pacific Northwest, 1997-2006. Global Change Biology, 15, 1962-1981, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01832.x.
10. Ciais P, Reichstein M, Viovy N et al. (2005) Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature, 437, 529-533, doi: 10.1038/nature03972.
11. 2O exchange over a northern mixed forest as observed from a very tall tower. Global Change Biology, 9, 1278-1293, doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00672.x.
12. Desai AR (2010) Climatic and phenological controls on coherent regional interannual variability of carbon dioxide flux in a heterogeneous landscape. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, 1-13, doi: 10.1029/2010JG001423.
13. Dietze M, Rodrigo V, Andrew DR et al. (2011) Characterizing the performance of ecosystem models across time scales: a spectral analysis of the North American Carbon Program site-level synthesis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, G04029, doi: 10.1029/2011JG001661.
14. Dragoni D, Schmid HP, Wayson CA, Potter H, Grimmond CSB, Randolph JC (2011) Evidence of increased net ecosystem productivity associated with a longer vegetated season in a deciduous forest in south-central Indiana, USA. Global Change Biology, 17, 886-897, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02281.x.
15. Dunn AL, Barford CC, Wofsy SC, Goulden ML, Daube BC (2007) A long-term record of carbon exchange in a boreal black spruce forest: means, responses to interannual variability, and decadal trends. Global Change Biology, 13, 577-590, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01221.x.
16. Friedlingstein P, Cox P, Betts R et al. (2006) Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19, 3337-3353.
17. Friend AD (2010) Terrestrial plant production and climate change. Journal of experimental botany, 61, 1293-1309, doi: 10.1093/jxb/erq019.
18. Gough CM, Flower CE, Vogel CS, Dragoni D, Curtis PS (2009) Whole-ecosystem labile carbon production in a north temperate deciduous forest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 1531-1540, doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.04.006.
19. Goulden ML, Wofsy SC, Harden JW et al. (1998) Sensitivity of Boreal Forest Carbon Balance to Soil Thaw. Science, 279, 214-217, doi: 10.1126/science.279.5348.214.
20. 2 and energy exchange in temperate and boreal coniferous forests. Ecological Modelling, 188, 217-252, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.01.060.
21. Griffis T, Black TA, Morgenstern K et al. (2003) Ecophysiological controls on the carbon balances of three southern boreal forests. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 117, 53-71, doi: 10.1016/S0168-1923(03)00023-6.
22. Gu L, Hanson PJ, Post WM et al. (2008) The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: increased cold damage in a warming world. BioScience, 58, 253, doi: 10.1641/B580311.
23. Hanson PJ, Amthor JS, Wullschleger SD et al. (2004) Oak forest carbon and water simulations: model intercomparisons and evaluations against independent data. Ecological Monographs, 74, 443-489, doi: 10.1890/03-4049.
24. Heimann M, Reichstein M (2008) Terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate feedbacks. Nature, 451, 289-292, doi: 10.1038/nature06591.
25. Hu J, Moore DJP, Burns SP, Monson RK (2010) Longer growing seasons lead to less carbon sequestration by a subalpine forest. Global Change Biology, 16, 771-783, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01967.x.
26. Hui D, Luo Y, Katul G (2003) Partitioning interannual variability in net ecosystem exchange between climatic variability and functional change. Tree physiology, 23, 433-442.
27. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor MMB, Miller HLJ, Chen Z), pp. 501-586. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. ISBN-13: 9780521705967.
28. 2 and water fluxes through combined in situ measurements and ecosystem modelling. Biogeosciences, 6, 1423-1444, doi: 10.5194/bg-6-1423-2009.
29. Keenan TF, Carbone MS, Reichstein M, Richardson AD (2011) The model-data fusion pitfall: assuming certainty in an uncertain world. Oecologia, 167, 587-597, doi: 10.1007/s00442-011-2106-x.
30. 2 increase in 2002-2003. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, 1-6, doi: 10.1029/2006GL029019.
31. Krinner G, Viovy N, de Noblet-Ducoudre N et al. (2005) A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 19, GB1015, doi: 10.1029/2003GB002199.
32. Krishnan P, Black TA, Barr AG, Grant NJ, Gaumont-Guay D, Nesic Z (2008) Factors controlling the interannual variability in the carbon balance of a southern boreal black spruce forest. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, 1-16, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008965.
33. Krishnan P, Black TA, Jassal RS, Chen B, Nesic Z (2009) Interannual variability of the carbon balance of three different-aged Douglas-fir stands in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, 1-18, doi: 10.1029/2008JG000912.
34. Liu J, Chen J, Cihlar J, Chen W (1999) Net primary productivity distribution in the BOREAS region from a process model using satellite and surface data. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 27375-27754.
35. Liu S, Bliss N, Sundquist E, Hungtington TG (2003) Modeling carbon dynamics in vegetation and soil under the impact of soil erosion and deposition. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 17, 1074, doi: 10.1029/2002GB002010.
36. Liu S, Bond-Lamberty B, Hicke JA et al. (2011) Simulating the impacts of disturbances on forest carbon cycling in North America: processes, data, models, and challenges. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, 1-22, doi: 10.1029/2010JG001585.
37. Luyssaert S, Janssens IA, Sulkava M et al. (2007) Photosynthesis drives anomalies in net carbon-exchange of pine forests at different latitudes. Global Change Biology, 13, 2110-2127, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01432.x.
38. le Maire G, Delpierre N, Jung M et al. (2010) Detecting the critical periods that underpin interannual fluctuations in the carbon balance of European forests. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, 1-16, doi: 10.1029/2009JG001244
39. Marino GP, Kaiser DP, Gu L, Ricciuto DM (2011) Reconstruction of false spring occurrences over the southeastern United States, 1901-2007: an increasing risk of spring freeze damage? Environmental Research Letters, 6, 024015, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024015.
40. Medvigy D, Wofsy SC, Munger JW, Hollinger DY, Moorcroft PR (2009) Mechanistic scaling of ecosystem function and dynamics in space and time: ecosystem Demography model version 2. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, 1-21, doi: 10.1029/2008JG000812.
41. Pan Y, Birdsey RA, Fang J et al. (2011) A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests. Science, 14, 1-11, doi: 10.1126/science.1201609.
42. Papale D, Valentini R (2003) A new assessment of European forests carbon exchanges by eddy fluxes and artificial neural network spatialization. Global Change Biology, 9, 525-535, doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00609.x.
43. Peichl M, Arain MA (2007) Allometry and partitioning of above- and belowground tree biomass in an age-sequence of white pine forests. Forest Ecology and Management, 253, 68-80, doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2007.07.003.
44. Piao S, Ciais P, Friedlingstein P et al. (2008) Net carbon dioxide losses of northern ecosystems in response to autumn warming. Nature, 451, 49-52, doi: 10.1038/nature06444.
45. Poulter B, Heyder U, Cramer W (2009) Modelling the sensitivity of the seasonal cycle of GPP to dynamic LAI and soil depths in tropical rainforests. Ecosystems, 12, 517-533, doi: 10.1007/s10021-009-9238-4.
46. 2 exchange on rangelands in the western United States. Global Change Biology, 16, 990-1002, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01966.x.
47. Reichstein M, Papale D, Valentini R et al. (2007) Determinants of terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance inferred from European eddy covariance flux sites. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L01402, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027880.
48. Riccuito DM, King AW, Gu L, Post WM (2008) Estimates of terrestrial carbon cycle model parameters by assimilation of FLUXNET data: do parameter variations cause bias in regional flux estimates? EOS Transactions, American Geophysical Union, (Fall Meeting Supplement) 89, Abstract B54A-03.
49. Riccuito DM, Thornton PE, Schaefer K, Cook RB, Davis KJ (2009) How uncertainty in gap-filled meteorological input forcing at eddy covariance sites impacts modeled carbon and energy flux. EOS Transactions, American Geophysical Union, (Fall Meeting Supplement) 90, Abstract B54A-03.
50. 2 flux record. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 147, 199-208, doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.06.004.
51. Richardson AD, Hollinger DY, Aber JD, Ollinger SV, Braswell BH (2007) Environmental variation is directly responsible for short- but not long-term variation in forest-atmosphere carbon exchange. Global Change Biology, 13, 788-803, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01330.x.
52. 2 flux measurement uncertainty inferred from model residuals. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 148, 38-50, doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.09.001.
53. Richardson AD, Hollinger DY, Dail DB, Lee JT, Munger JW, Keefe JO, O'keefe J (2009) Influence of spring phenology on seasonal and annual carbon balance in two contrasting New England forests. Tree physiology, 29, 321-331, doi: 10.1093/treephys/tpn040.
54. Richardson AD, Anderson RS, Arain MA et al. (2012) Terrestrial biosphere models need better representation of vegetation phenology: results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis. Global Change Biology, 18, 566-584, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02562.x.
55. 2 exchange variability in a freshwater marsh. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, 1-10, doi: 10.1029/2008JG000713.
56. Running S, Nemani RR, Heinsch FA, Zhao M, Reeves M, Hashimoto H (2004) A continuous satellite-derived measure of global terrestrial primary production. BioScience, 54, 547-560, doi: 10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054.
57. Rutter N, Essery R, Pomeroy J et al. (2009) Evaluation of forest snow processes models (SnowMIP2). Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D06111, doi: 10.1029/2008JD011063.
58. Ryu Y, Baldocchi DD, Kobayashi H et al. (2011) Integration of MODIS land and atmosphere products with a coupled-process model to estimate gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration from 1 km to global scales. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 25, GB4017, doi: 10.1029/2011GB004053.
59. Schaefer K, Zhang T, Slater AG, Lu L, Etringer A, Baker I (2009) Improving simulated soil temperatures and soil freeze/thaw at high-latitude regions in the simple biosphere/carnegie-ames-stanford approach model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, 1-18, doi: 10.1029/2008JF001125.
60. 2 and energy fluxes over a mixed hardwood forest in the mid-western United States. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 103, 357-374, doi: 10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00140-4.
61. Schmid HP, Su H-B, Vogel CS, Curtis PS (2003) Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide over a mixed hardwood forest in northern lower Michigan. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, 4417, doi: 10.1029/2002JD003011.
62. Schwalm CR, Black TA, Morgenstern K, Humphreys ER (2007) A method for deriving net primary productivity and component respiratory fluxes from tower-based eddy covariance data: a case study using a 17-year data record from a Douglas-fir chronosequence. Global Change Biology, 13, 370-385, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01298.x
63. 2 exchange across North America: results from the North American carbon program site synthesis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, 22, doi: 10.1029/2009JG001229.
64. 2O exchange rates in a maturing southeastern US pine forest. Global Change Biology, 12, 1189-1207, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01158.x.
65. Sitch S, Smith B, Prentice IC et al. (2003) Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology, 9, 161-185, doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x.
66. Thornton PE, Running SW, White M (1997) Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain. Journal of Hydrology, 190, 214-251, doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03128-9.
67. Thornton PE, Running SW, Hunt ER (2005), Biome-BGC: Terrestrial Ecosystem Process Model, Version 4.1.1. Data model. Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A, doi:10.3334/ORNLDAAC/805. Available at: (accessed 9 March 2012).
68. Tian H, Chen G, Liu M et al. (2010) Model estimates of net primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and water use efficiency in the terrestrial ecosystems of the southern United States during 1895-2007. Forest Ecology and Management, 259, 1311-1327, doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.10.009.
69. Urbanski S, Barford C, Wofsy S et al. (2007) Factors controlling CO 2 exchange on timescales from hourly to decadal at Harvard Forest. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, 1-25, doi: 10.1029/2006JG000293.
70. Vetter M, Churkina G, Jung M et al. (2008) Analyzing the causes and spatial pattern of the European 2003 carbon flux anomaly using seven models. Biogeosciences, 5, 561-583, doi: 10.5194/bg-5-561-2008.
71. Wang Y-PP, Trudinger CM, Enting IG (2009) A review of applications of model-data fusion to studies of terrestrial carbon fluxes at different scales. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 1829-1842, doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.07.009.
72. Weng E, Luo Y (2008) Soil hydrological properties regulate grassland ecosystem responses to multifactor global change: a modeling analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, 1-16, doi: 10.1029/2007JG000539.
73. Williamson TB, Price DT, Beverly JL et al. (2008), Assessing potential biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change on forest-based communities: a methodological case study. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre. Information Report NOR-X-415E. Available at: (accessed 9 March 2012).
74. Yang X, Wittig V, Jain AK, Post W (2009) Integration of nitrogen cycle dynamics into the Integrated Science Assessment Model for the study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 23, 1-18, doi: 10.1029/2009GB003474.
75. Yuan W, Luo Y, Richardson AD, et al. (2009) Latitudinal patterns of magnitude and interannual variability in net ecosystem exchange regulated by biological and environmental variables. Global Change Biology, 15, 2905-2920, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01870.x.
76. 2 variability. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 19, GB1061, doi: 10.1029/2004GB002273.
77. 2 and heat fluxes over the Amazonian region. Ecological Modelling, 162, 97-117, doi: 10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00405-2.
78. Zhao M, Running SW (2010) Drought-induced reduction in global terrestrial net primary production from 2000 through 2009. Science, 329, 940-943, doi: 10.1126/science.1192666.
79. Zhao M, Heinsch FA, Nemani RR, Running SW (2005) Improvements of the MODIS terrestrial gross and net primary production global data set. Remote Sensing of Environment, 95, 164-176, doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2004.12.011.
80. Zhao M, Running SW, Nemani RR (2006) Sensitivity of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) terrestrial primary production to the accuracy of meteorological reanalyses. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, 1-13, doi: 10.1029/2004JG000004.