Quantitative environmental risk assessments in the context of marine spatial management: Current approaches and some perspectives

ICES Journal of Marine Science

Volumn 72, Issue 3, 2015, Pages 1022-1042

  Stelzenmuller V ^a   Fock, H O ^a   Gimpel, A ^a   Rambo, H ^a   Diekmann, R ^a   Probst, W N ^a   Callies, U ^c   Bockelmann, F ^c   Neumann, H ^b   Kroncke I ^b  

^a INSTITUT FÜR SEEFISCHEREI   (Germany)

^b INSTITUTE OF MATERIALS RESEARCH   (Germany)

^c SENCKENBERG DEUTSCHES ENTOMOLOGISCHES INSTITUT   (Germany)

Author keywords

Bayesian belief network; Fishing frequency; GIS; Marine spatial planning; Review

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; BENTHOS; BOTTOM TRAWLING; ENVIRONMENTAL DISTURBANCE; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL RISK; MORTALITY; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SPATIAL PLANNING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; NORTH SEA;

EID: 84925607735     PISSN: 10543139     EISSN: 10959289     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsu206     Document Type: Review

References (90)

1. 92/43/EEC, C. D. 1992. Council Directive 92/43/EEC of 21 May 1992 on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora.
2. Aguilera, P. A., Fernández, A., Fernández, R., Rumí, R., and Salmerón, A. 2011. Bayesian networks in environmental modelling. Environmental Modelling and Software, 26: 1376-1388.
3. Alvarez-Romero, J. G., Devlin, M., Teixeira da Silva, E., Petus, C., Ban, N. C., Pressey, R. L., Kool, J., et al. 2013. A novel approach to model exposure of coastal-marine ecosystems to riverine flood plumes based on remote sensing techniques. Journal of Environmental Management, 119: 194-207.
4. Astles, K. L., Holloway, M. G., Steffe, A., Green, M., Ganassin, C., and Gibbs, P. J. 2006. An ecological method for qualitative risk assessment and its use in the management of fisheries in New South Wales, Australia. Fisheries Research, 82: 290-303.
5. Badreddine, A., and Amor, N.B. 2013. A Bayesian approach to construct bow tie diagrams for risk evaluation. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 91: 159-171.
6. Ban, N. C., Alidina, H. M., and Ardron, J. A. 2010. Cumulative impact mapping: advances, relevance and limitations to marine management and conservation, using Canada's Pacific waters as a case study. Marine Policy, 34: 876-886.
7. Bastardie, F., Nielsen, J. R., Andersen, B. S., and Eigaard, O. R. 2013a. Integrating individual trip planning in energy efficiency - Building decision tree models for Danish fisheries. Fisheries Research, 143: 119-130.
8. Bastardie, F., Nielsen, J. R., and Miethe, T. 2013b. DISPLACE: a dynamic, individual-based model for spatial fishing planning and effort displacement - integrating underlying fish population models. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 71: 366-386.
9. Becker, G. A., Dick, S., and Dippner, J. W. 1992. Hydrography of the German bight. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 91: 9-18.
10. Bedford, T., and Cooke, R. 2001. Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
11. Bianchi, C. N., Parravicini, V., Montefalcone, M., Rovere, A., and Morri, C. 2012. The challenge of managing marine biodiversity: a practical toolkit for a cartographic, territorial approach. Diversity, 4: 419-452.
12. BMVBS. 2009. Spatial Plan for the German Exclusive Economic Zone in the North Sea. http://www.bsh.de/en/Marine-uses/Spatial-Planning-in-the-German-EEZ /index.jsp (last accessed 12 November 2014).
13. Brennan, J., Fitzsimmons, C., Gray, T., and Raggatt, L. 2014. EU marine strategy framework directive (MSFD) and marine spatial planning (MSP): Which is the more dominant and practicable contributor to maritime policy in the UK? Marine Policy, 43: 359-366.
14. Brown, C. J., Saunders, M. I., Possingham, H. P., and Richardson, A. J. 2013. Interactions between global and local stressors of ecosystems determine management effectiveness in cumulative impact mapping. Diversity and Distributions, 20: 538-546.
15. Carneiro, G. 2013. Evaluation of marine spatial planning. Marine Policy, 37: 214-229.
16. Chrastansky, A., and Callies, U. 2011. Using a Bayesian network to summarize variability in numerical long-term simulations of a meteorological-marine system: drift climatology of assumed oil spills in the North Sea. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 16: 1-14.
17. Christel, I., Certain, G., Cama, A., Vieites, D. R., and Ferrer, X. 2013. Seabird aggregative patterns: A new tool for offshore wind energy risk assessment. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 66: 84-91.
18. Collie, J. S., Vic Adamowicz, W. L., Beck, M. W., Craig, B., Essington, T. E., Fluharty, D., Rice, J., et al. 2013. Marine spatial planning in practice. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 117: 1-11.
19. Commission, E. 2008. Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 June 2008, establishing a frame-work for community action in the field of marine environmental policy (Marine Strategy Framework Directive). Official Journal of the European Union, L164: 19-40.
20. Commission, E. 2014. Directive 2014/89/ EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 July 2014 establishing a frame-work for maritime spatial planning. In /89/EU, pp. 135-145. Ed. by E. P. a. t. C. o. t. E. Union.
21. Cook, G. S., Fletcher, P. J., and Kelble, C. R. 2013. Towards marine ecosystem based management in South Florida: investigating the connections among ecosystem pressures, states, and services in a complex coastal system. Ecological Indicators, 44: 26-39.
22. Cormier, R., et al. 2013. Marine and Coastal Ecosystem-Based Risk Management Handbook. ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 317. 60 pp.
23. Crain, C. M., Kroeker, K., and Halpern, B. S. 2008. Interactive and cumulative effects of multiple human stressors in marine systems. Ecology Letters, 11: 1304-1315.
24. De Lange, H. J., Sala, S., Vighi, M., and Faber, J. H. 2010. Ecological vulnerability in risk assessment - a review and perspectives. Science of the Total Environment, 408: 3871-3879.
25. Diesing, M., Stephens, D., and Aldridge, J. 2013.Aproposed method for assessing the extent of the seabed significantly affected by demersal fishing in the Greater North Sea. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1085-1096.
26. Douvere, F., and Ehler, C. N. 2010. The importance of monitoring and evaluation in adaptive maritime spatial planning. Journal of Coast Conservation, 15: 305-311.
27. Eastwood, P. D., Mills, C. M., Aldridge, J. N., Houghton, C. A., and Rogers, S. I. 2007.Human activities inUKoffshorewaters: an assessment of direct, physical pressure on the seabed. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 453-463.
28. Elliott, M.2002. The role of the DPSIR approach and conceptual models in marine environmental management: an example for offshore wind power. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 44: iii-vii.
29. Elliott, M., and Quintino, V. 2007. The estuarine quality paradox, environmental homeostasis and the difficulty of detecting anthropogenic stress in naturally stressed areas. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 54: 640-645.
30. Ferdous, R., Khan, F., Sadiq, R., Amyotte, P., and Veitch, B. 2013. Analyzing system safety and risks under uncertainty using a bow-tie diagram: An innovative approach. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 91: 1-18.
31. Fock, H. 2011a. Integrating multiple pressures at different spatial and temporal scales: a concept for relative ecological risk assessment in the European marine environment. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 17: 187-211.
32. Fock, H. O. 2011b. Natura 2000 and the European Common Fisheries Policy. Marine Policy, 35: 181-188.
33. Fock, H. O., Kloppmann, M., and Stelzenmüller, V. 2011. Linking marine fisheries to environmental objectives: a case studyon seafloor integrity under European maritime policies. Environmental Science and Policy, 14: 289-300.
34. Foden, J., Rogers, S. I., and Jones, A. P. 2010. Recovery of UK seabed habitats from benthic fishing and aggregate extraction-Towards a cumulative impact assessment. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 411: 259-270.
35. Foden, J., Rogers, S. I., and Jones, A. P. 2011. Human pressures on UK seabed habitats: a cumulative impact assessment. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 428: 33-47.
36. Foley, M. M., Armsby, M. H., Prahler, E. E., Caldwell, M. R., Erickson, A. L., Kittinger, J. N., Crowder, L. B., et al. 2013. Improving ocean management through the use of ecological principles and integrated ecosystem assessments. BioScience, 63: 619-631.
37. Fouzai, N., Coll, M., Palomera, I., Santojanni, A., Arneri, E., and Christensen, V. 2012. Fishing management scenarios to rebuild exploited resources and ecosystems of the Northern-Central Adriatic (Mediterranean Sea). Journal of Marine Systems, 102-104: 39-51.
38. Furness, R. W., and Tasker, M. L. 2000. Seabird-fishery interactions: Quantifying the sensitivity of seabirds to reductions in sandeel abundance, and identification of key areas for sensitive seabirds in the North Sea. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 202: 253-264.
39. Gimpel, A., Stelzenmüller, V., Cormier, R., Floeter, J., and Temming, A. 2013. A spatially explicit risk approach to support marine spatial planning in the German EEZ. Marine Environmental Research, 86: 56-69.
40. Goldsworthy, S. D., and Page, B. 2007. A risk-assessment approach to evaluating the significance of seal bycatch in two Australian fisheries. Biological Conservation, 139: 269-285.
41. Grech, A., Coles, R., and Marsh, H. 2011. A broad-scale assessment of the risk to coastal seagrasses from cumulative threats. Marine Policy, 35: 560-567.
42. Grêt-Regamey, A., Brunner, S. H., Altwegg, J., and Bebi, P. 2013a. Facing uncertainty in ecosystem services-based resource management. Journal of Environmental Management, 127: S145-S154.
43. Grêt-Regamey, A., Brunner, S. H., Altwegg, J., Christen, M., and Bebi, P. 2013b. Integrating expert knowledge into mapping ecosystem services tradeoffs for sustainable forest management. Ecology and Society, 18: art. no. 34.
44. Grifoll, M., Jordá, G., Borja, Á., and Espino, M. 2010. A new risk assessment method for water quality degradation in harbour domains, using hydrodynamic models. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 60: 69-78.
45. Halpern, B. S., McLeod, K. L., Rosenberg, A. A., and Crowder, L. B. 2008a. Managing for cumulative impacts in ecosystem-based management through ocean zoning. Ocean and Coastal Management, 51: 203-211.
46. Halpern, B. S., Walbridge, S., Selkoe, K. A., Kappel, C. V., Micheli, F., D'Agrosa, C., Bruno, J. F., et al. 2008b. A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems. Science, 319: 948-952.
47. Hiddink, J. G., Jennings, S., and Kaiser, M. J. 2006a. Indicators of the ecological impact of bottom-trawl disturbance on seabed communities. Ecosystems, 9: 1190-1199.
48. Hiddink, J. G., Jennings, S., and Kaiser, M. J. 2007. Assessing and predicting the relative ecological impacts of disturbance on habitats with different sensitivities. Journal of Applied Ecology, 44: 405-413.
49. Hiddink, J. G., Jennings, S., Kaiser, M. J., Queirós, A. M., Duplisea, D. E., and Piet, G. J. 2006b. Cumulative impacts of seabed trawl disturbance on benthic biomass, production, and species richness in different habitats. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 63: 721-736.
50. Hope, B. K. 2006. An examination of ecological risk assessment and management practices. Environment International, 32: 983-995.
51. Irene, P., Paolo, V., Donatella, V., Alberto, M. J., Mauro, F., and Giovanni, Z. 2010. Mapping the environmental risk of a tourist harbor in order to foster environmental security: Objective vs. subjective assessments. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 60: 1051-1058.
52. Johnson, S., Low-Choy, S., and Mengersen, K. 2012. Integrating bayesian networks and geographic information systems: Good practice examples. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 8: 473-479.
53. Kaiser, M. J., Clarke, K. R., Hinz, H., Austen, M. C. V., Somerfield, P. J., and Karakassis, I. 2006. Global analysis of response and recovery of benthic biota to fishing. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 311: 1-14.
54. Katsanevakis, S., Stelzenmüller, V., South, A., Sørensen, T. K., Jones, P. J. S., Kerr, S., Badalamenti, F., et al. 2011. Ecosystem-based marine spatial management: review of concepts, policies, tools, and critical issues. Ocean and Coastal Management, 54: 807-820.
55. Khakzad, N., Khan, F., and Amyotte, P. 2013. Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 91: 46-53.
56. Kjræulff, U. B., and Madsen, A. L. 2013. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis: A Guide to Construction and Analysis. Springer, New York.
57. Korpinen, S., Meidinger, M., and Laamanen, M. 2013. Cumulative impacts on seabed habitats:An indicator for assessments of good environmental status. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 74: 311-319.
58. Lozoya, J.P., Sardá, R., and Jiménez, J. A. 2011.Amethodological framework for multi-hazard risk assessment in beaches. Environmental Science & Policy, 14: 685-696.
59. MacDonald, L. 2000. Evaluating and managing cumulative effects: process and constraints. Environmental Management, 26: 299-315.
60. Marcot, B. G., Steventon, J. D., Sutherland, G. D., and McCann, R. K. 2006. Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation. Canadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche Forestiere, 36: 3063-3074.
61. Martins, C. C. A., Andriolo, A., Engel, M. H., Kinas, P. G., and Saito, C. H. 2013. Identifying priority areas for humpback whale conservation at Eastern Brazilian Coast. Ocean and Coastal Management, 75: 63-71.
62. McCann, R. K., Marcot, B. G., and Ellis, R. 2006. Bayesian belief networks: Applications in ecology and natural resource management. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 36: 3053-3062.
63. Moilanen, A. 2013. Planning impact avoidance and biodiversity offsetting using software for spatial conservation prioritisation. Wildlife Research, 40: 153-162.
64. Neumann, H., and Kröncke, I. 2011. The effect of temperature variability on ecological functioning of epifauna in the German Bight. Marine Ecology, 32: 49-57.
65. Neumann, H., Reiss, H., Ehrich, S., Sell, A., Panten, K., Kloppmann, M., Wilhelms, I., et al. 2013. Benthos and demersal fish habitats in the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. Helgoland Marine Research, 67: 445-459.
66. Olita, A., Cucco, A., Simeone, S., Ribotti, A., Fazioli, L., Sorgente, B., and Sorgente, R. 2012. Oil spill hazard and risk assessment for the shorelines of a Mediterranean coastal archipelago. Ocean & Coastal Management, 57: 44-52.
67. Parravicini, V., Rovere, A., Vassallo, P., Micheli, F., Montefalcone, M., Morri, C., Paoli, C., et al. 2012. Understanding relationships between conflictinghumanuses and coastal ecosystems status: a geospatial modeling approach. Ecological Indicators, 19: 253-263.
68. Pascual, M., Borja, A., Galparsoro, I., Ruiz, J., Mugerza, E., Quincoces, I., Murillas, A., et al. 2013. Total fishing pressure produced by artisanal fisheries, from aMarine Spatial Planning perspective: a case study from the Basque Country (Bay of Biscay). Fisheries Research, 147: 240-252.
69. Pearl, J. 1988. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference. Morgan Kaufmann, Publishers Inc. San Francisco, USA.
70. Pearl, J. 2000. Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference. Cambridge University Press New York, NY, USA.
71. Pesch, R., Pehlke, H., Jerosch, K., Schröder, W., and Schlüter, M. 2008. Using decision trees to predict benthic communities within and near the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 136: 313-325.
72. Pickett, S. T. A., White, P. S. 1985. Patch dynamics: a synthesis. In The Ecology of Natural Disturbance and Patch Dynamics, pp. 371-384. Ed. by S. T. A. P. a. P. S. White. Academic Press, New York.
73. Piet, G. J., Rijnsdorp, A. D., Bergman, M. J. N., Van Santbrink, J. W., Craeymeersch, J., and Buijs, J. 2000. A quantitative evaluation of the impact of beam trawling on benthic fauna in the southern North Sea. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 57: 1332-1339.
74. Qiu, W., and Jones, P. J. S. 2013. The emerging policy landscape for marine spatial planning in Europe. Marine Policy, 39: 182-190.
75. Rachor, E., and Nehmer, P. 2003. Erfassung und Bewertung ökologisch wertvoller Lebensräumein der Nordsee. Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven.
76. Redfern, J.V., McKenna, M. F., Moore, T. J., Calambokidis, J., Deangelis, M. L., Becker, E. A., Barlow, J., et al. 2013. Assessing the risk of ships striking large whales in marine spatial planning. Conservation Biology, 27: 292-302.
77. Rotmans, J., and van Asselt, M. B. 2001. Uncertainty management in integrated assessment modeling: towards a pluralistic approach. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 69: 101-130.
78. Samhouri, J. F., and Levin, P. S. 2012. Linking land- and sea-based activities to risk in coastal ecosystems. Biological Conservation, 145: 118-129.
79. Spiegelhalter, D. J., and Dawid, P. 1993. Bayesian analysis in expert systems. Statistical Science, 8: 219-283.
80. Stelzenmüller, V., Breen, P., Stamford, T., Thomsen, F., Badalamenti, F., Borja, T., Buhl-Mortensen, L., et al. 2013. Monitoring and evaluation of spatially managed areas: a generic framework for implementation of ecosystem based marine management and its application. Marine Policy, 37: 149-164.
81. Stelzenmüller, V., Ellis, J. R., and Rogers, S. I. 2010. Towards a spatially explicit risk assessment for marine management: Assessing the vulnerability of fish to aggregate extraction. Biological Conservation, 143: 230-238.
82. Stelzenmüller, V., Schulze, T., Fock, H. O., and Berkenhagen, J. 2011. Integrated modelling tools to support risk-based decision-making in marine spatial management. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 441: 197-212.
83. Stelzenmüller, V., Vega Fernández, T., Cronin, K., Röckmann, C., Pantazi, M., Vanaverbeke, J., Stamford, T., et al. 2015. Assessing uncertainty associated with the monitoring and evaluation of spatially managed areas. Marine Policy, 51: 151-162.
84. Tyler-Walters, H., Hiscock, K., Lear, D., and Jackson, A. 2001. Identifying species and ecosystem sensitivities. Final report to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. The Marine Biological Association, MarLIN, Plymouth. 84 pp. + Annexes.
85. Vanhatalo, J. P., Tuomi, L. M., Inkala, A. T., Helle, S. I., and Pitkänen, J. H. 2013. Probabilistic ecosystem model for predicting the nutrient concentrations in the gulf of Finland under diverse management actions. Environmental Science and Technology, 47: 334-341.
86. Vugteveen, P., van Katwijk, M. M., Rouwette, E., and Hanssen, L. 2014. How to structure and prioritize information needs in support of monitoring design for Integrated Coastal Management. Journal of Sea Research, 86: 23-33.
87. Waugh, S. M., Filippi, D. P., Kirby, D. S., Abraham, E., and Walker, N. 2012. Ecological risk assessment for seabird interactions in Western and Central Pacific longline fisheries. Marine Policy, 36: 933-946.
88. Weisse, R., von Storch, H., Callies, U., Chrastansky, A., Feser, F., Grabemann, I., Günther, H., et al. 2009. Regional meteorological - marine reanalyses and climate change projections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90: 849-860.
89. Williams, A., Dowdney, J., Smith, A. D. M., Hobday, A. J., and Fuller, M. 2011. Evaluating impacts of fishing on benthic habitats: a risk assessment framework applied to Australian fisheries. Fisheries Research, 112: 154-167.
90. Winiarski, K. J., Miller, D. L., Paton, P. W. C., and McWilliams, S. R. 2014. A spatial conservation prioritization approach for protecting marine birds given proposed offshore wind energy development. Biological Conservation, 169: 79-88.