Integrating expert knowledge into mapping ecosystem services tradeoffs for sustainable forest management

Ecology and Society

Volumn 18, Issue 3, 2013, Pages

  Grêt Regamey, Adrienne ^a   Brunner, Sibyl H ^a   Altwegg, Juerg ^a   Christen, Marc ^b   Bebi, Peter ^b  

^a ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

^b WSL INSTITUTE FOR SNOW AND AVALANCHE RESEARCH SLF   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Bayesian network; Climate change; Ecosystem services; Expert survey; Forest management; Land use change; Mapping; Mountain ecosystem; Trade offs; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM SERVICE; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; EXPERT SYSTEM; FOREST MANAGEMENT; GIS; GLOBAL CHANGE; LAND USE CHANGE; MAPPING; STAKEHOLDER; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT; SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY; TRADE-OFF; TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ALPS; SWITZERLAND;

EID: 84884922411     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17083087     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5751/ES-05800-180334     Document Type: Article

References (97)

1. Amt für Wald Graubünden (AfW GR). 2008. Projektbuch Pauschalansätze. AfW GR, Chur, Switzerland. [online] URL: http://www.gr.ch
2. Ascough II, J. C.H.R. Maier, J. K. Ravalico, and M. W. Strudley. 2008. Future research challenges for incorporation of uncertainty in environmental and ecological decision making. Ecological Modelling 219:383-399. http://dx.doi. org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.07.015
3. Aspinall, R. 1992. An inductive modeling procedure based on Bayes' theorem for analysis of pattern in spatial data. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems 6:105-121. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02693799208901899
4. Bajracharya, B., S. Pradhan, B. Shrestha, and F. Salerno. 2010. An integrated Decision Support Toolbox (DST) for the management of mountain protected areas. Mountain Research and Development 30(2):94-102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1659/ MRD-JOURNAL-D-09-00048.1
5. Barbolini, M., F. Cappabianca, and F. Savi. 2003. A new method for estimation of avalanche distance exceeded probabilities. Survey in Geophysics 24:587-601. http://dx.doi. org/10.1023/B:GEOP.0000006084.45248.22
6. Bart, R., P. Borter, T. Egli, and M. Gächter. 1999. Risikonanalyse bei gravitativen Naturgefahren Fallbeispiele und Daten. Umwelt-Materialien 107(II). Report of the Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, Bern, Switzerland.
7. Bebi, P., A. Grêt-Regamey, J. Rhyner, and W. J. Amann. 2004. Risikobasierte Schutzwaldstrategie. Forum für Wissen 2004:79-86.
8. Bebi, P., D. Kulakowski, and C. Rixen. 2009. Snow avalanche disturbances in forest ecosystems state of research and implications for management. Forest Ecology and Management 257:1883-1892. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. foreco.2009.01.050
9. Bebi, P., S. Kytzia, T. Bieger, W. Frey, and C. Semadeni. 2005. Am Beispiel der Landschaft Davos Simulation und Bewertung von Zukunftsszenarien Alpiner Regionen. Schlussbericht NFP-48, Swiss National Science Foundation, Berne, Switzerland.
10. Beck, C. 2008. Literaturstudie zur monetären Bewertung von Nicht-Holzleistungen des Waldes. Pages 89-196 in T. Moser, Zabel, K. Bernath, P. Baur, A. Roschewitz, C. Beck, and W. Zimmermann. Inwertsetzung von Waldwerten und Waldleistungen. Ergänzungsbeitrag zur Cost Aktion E45, Zurich, Switzerland.
11. Bernasconi, A., U. Schroff, and T. Ayus Pellitero. 2005. Erholung und Walddynamik. Synthesebericht, BUWAL, Berne, Switzerland.
12. Bont, L. 2009. Analyse Tool für die Evaluierung der Holzernte mit Seilkran (Software). Professorship of Forest Engineering, Institute for Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Switzerland.
13. Brändli, U. B., and U. Ulmer. 2001. Recreational function. Pages 254-264 in P. Brassel and H. Lischke, editors. Swiss National Forest inventory: methods and models of the second assessment. WSL Swiss Federal Research Institute, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
14. Brang, P., W. Schönenberger, M. Frehner, R. Schwitter, J. J. Thormann, and B. Wasser. 2006. Management of protection forests in the European Alps: an overview. Forest Snow and Landscape Research 80(1):23-44.
15. Bromley, J. 2005. Guidelines for the use of Bayesian networks as a participatory tool for Water Resource Management. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK.
16. Briner, S., C. Elkin, R. Huber, and A. Grêt-Regamey. 2012. Assessing the impacts of economic and climate changes on land-use in mountain regions: a spatial dynamic modeling approach. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 149:50-63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2011.12.011
17. Bugmann, H., B. Zierl, and S. Schumacher. 2005. Projecting the impacts of climate change on mountain forests and landscapes. Pages 477-487 in U. Huber, H. Bugmann, and M. Reasoner, editors. Global change and mountain regions: an overview of current knowledge. Advances in Global Change Research. Springer-Verlag, Dortrecht, Germany. http://dx. doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-3508-X_48
18. Bühler, D., and R. Minsch. 2004. Der Tourismus im Kanton Graubünden. Wertschöpfungsstudie. Wirtschaftsforum Graubünden, Chur, Switzerland. [online] URL: http://www.wirtschaftsforumgr.ch/fileadmin/user_upload/customers/wirtschaftsforum-gr/Download/Publikationen_Dritte/Publ3_2004-11_WSTourismusGR.pdf
19. Busch, M., A. La Notte, V. Laporte, and M. Erhard. 2012. Potentials of quantitative and qualitative approaches to assessing ecosystem services. Ecological Indicators 21:89-103. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2011.11.010
20. Carpenter, S. R., H. A. Mooney, J. Agard, D. Capistrano, R. S. DeFries, S. Diaz, T. Dietz, A. K. Duraiappah, A. OtengYeboah, H. M. Pereira, C. Perrings, W. V. Reid, J. Sarukhan, R. J. Scholes, and A. Whyte. 2009. Science for managing ecosystem services: beyond the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106(5):1305-1312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0808772106
21. Castella, J. C., T. N. Trung, and S. Boissau. 2005. Participatory simulation of land-use changes in the northern mountains of Vietnam: the combined use of an agent-based model, a roleplaying game, and a geographic information system. Ecology and Society 10(1): 27. [online] URL: http://www. ecologyandsociety.org/vol10/iss1/art27/
22. Celio, E., S. H. Brunner, and A. Grêt-Regamey. 2012. Participatory land use modeling with Bayesian networks: a focus on subjective validation. Pages 1827-1834 in R. Seppelt, A. Voinov, S. Lange, and D. Bankamp, editors. International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Pathways and Visions under Uncertainty, Sixth Biennial Meeting, Leipzig, Germany. International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, Manno, Switzerland. [online] URL:http://www.iemss.org/sites/iemss2012/proceedings.html
23. Chan, K. M. A., M. R. Shaw, D. R. Cameron, E. C. Underwood, and G. D. Daily. 2006. Conservation planning for ecosystem services. PLoS Biology 4(11):e379. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/ journal.pbio.0040379
24. Chen, N., H. Li, and L. Wang. 2009. A GIS-based approach for mapping direct use value of ecosystem services at a county scale: management implications. Ecological Economics 68:2768-2776. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.12.001
25. Chhatre, A., and A. Agrawal. 2009. Trade-offs and synergies between carbon storage and livelihood benefits from forest commons. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106:17667-17670. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0905308106
26. Christen, M., J. Kowalski, and P. Bartelt. 2010. RAMMS: Numerical simulation of dense snow avalanches in threedimensional terrain. Cold Regions Science and Technology 63 (1-2):1-14.
27. Constanza, R., R. d'Arge, R. de Groot, S. Farber, M. Grasso, B. Hannon, K. Limburg, S. Naem, R. V. O'Neill, J. Paruelo, R. G. Raskin, P. Sutton, and M. van den Belt. 1997. The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital. Science 387:253-260.
28. Dale, V. H., L. A. Joyce, S. McNulty, R. P. Neilson, M. P. Ayres, M. D. Flannigan, P. J. Hanson, L. C. Irland, A. E. Lugo, C. J. Peterson, D. Simberloff, F. J. Swanson, B. J. Stocks, and B. M. Wotton. 2001. Climate change and forest disturbances. BioScience 51(9):723-734. http://dx.doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568 (2001)051[0723:CCAFD]2.0.CO;2
29. Deal, R. L., and R. White. 2012. Integrating forest products with ecosystem services: a global perspective. Forest Policy and Economics 17:1-2. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2012.02.014
30. Ding, H., P. A. L. D. Nunes, and S. Teelucksingh. 2010. European forests and carbon sequestration services: an economic assessment of climate change impacts. Ecosystem Services Economics (ESE) Working Paper Series, No. 9, Ecosystem Services Economics Unit, Division of Environmental Policy Implementation, UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya. http://www.unep.org/ecosystemmanagement/Portals/7/ Documents/WP09_European%20Forests_UNEP.pdf
31. Ditt, E. H., S. Mourato, J. Ghazoul, and J. Knight. 2010. Forest conversion and provision of ecosystem services in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. Land Degradation and Development 21:591-603. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ldr.1010
32. EcoSecurities Consulting Ltd. 2009. Assigning carbon price estimates to alternative policy scenarios. EcoSecurities Consulting Ltd., Portland, Oregon, USA. [online] URL: http://www.nwcouncil.org/media/4761/20090130_Scenario_Analy-sis_NWPCC_FINAL.pdf
33. Egoh, B., B. Reyers, M. Rouget, D. M. Richardson, D. C. Le Maitre, and A. S. van Jaarsveld. 2008. Mapping ecosystem services for planning and management. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 127:135-140. http://dx.doi. org/10.1016/j.agee.2008.03.013
34. Ellison, A. M. 1996. An introduction to Bayesian inference for ecological research and environmental decision-making. Ecological Applications 6(4):1036-1046. http://dx.doi. org/10.2307/2269588
35. Environmental System Research Institute (ESRI). 2000. ArcGIS 8.3, ESRI INC. ESRI, Redlands, California, USA. [online] URL: http://www.esri.com
36. Etienne, M., M. Cohen, and C. LePage. 2003. A step-by step approach to build-up land management scenarios based on multiple viewpoints on multi-agent simulations. Journal of Artifical Societies and Simulations 6(2):257-262.
37. Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). 2005. Nachhaltigkeit und Erfolgskontrolle im Schutzwald Wegleitung für Pflegemassnahmen in Wäldern mit Schutzfunktion. BBL, Verkauf Bundespublikationen, Bern, Switzerland.
38. Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). 2008. Aktionsplan Auerhuhn Schweiz Artenförderung Vögel Schweiz. Umwelt-Vollzug Nr. 0804. Bundesamt für Umwelt, Schweizerische Vogelwarte, Schweizer Vogelschutz, Berne, Switzerland.
39. Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). 2011. Switzerland's greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2009. National Inventory Report 2011, including reporting elements under the Kyoto Protocol. Submission of 15th April 2011 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and under the Kyoto Protocol. FOEN, Bern, Switzerland.
40. Foley, J. A., R. DeFries, G. P. Asner, C. Barford, G. Bonan, S. R. Carpenter, F. S. Chapin, M. T. Coe, G. C. Daily, H. K. Gibbs, J. H. Helkowski, T. Holloway, E. A. Howard, C. J. Kucharik, C. Monfreda, J. A. Patz, I. C. Prentice, N. Ramankutty, and P. K. Snyder. 2005. Global consequences of land use. Science 309:570-574. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/ science.1111772
41. Folke C. 2004. Traditional knowledge in social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society 9(3): 7. [online] URL: http:// www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss3/art7/
42. Frey, W. 2002. Tourismus und Bergwald Chancen und Gefahren. WSL Swiss Federal Research Institute, Birmensdorf, Switzerland. [online] URL: http://www.hep. info/nachhaltighandeln/documents/entry/183/Schutzwald-Tourismus. pdf
43. Führer, E. 2000. Forest functions, ecosystem stability and management. Forest Ecology and Management 132:29-38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00377-7
44. Fürst, C., H. Vacik, C. Lorz, F. Makeschin, V. Podrazky, and V. Janecek. 2007. Meeting the challenges of process-oriented forest management. Forest Ecology and Management 248:1-5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2007.02.031
45. Graf, R. F., K. Bollmann, W. Suter, and H. Bugmann. 2005. The importance of spatial scale in habitat models: Capercaillie in the Swiss Alps. Landscape Ecology 20(6):703-717. http:// dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-005-0063-7
46. Grêt-Regamey, A., P. Bebi, I. D. Bishop, and W. A. Schmid. 2008. Linking GIS-based models to value ecosystem services in an Alpine region. Journal of Environmental Management 89:197-208. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2007.05.019
47. Grêt-Regamey, A., S. H. Brunner, J. Altwegg, and P. Bebi. 2013. Facing uncertainty in ecosystem services-based resource management. Journal of Environmental Management 127:S145-S154. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.07.028
48. Grêt-Regamey, A., and D. Straub. 2006. Spatially explicit avalanche risk assessment linking Bayesian networks to a GIS. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 6:911-926. http:// dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-911-2006
49. Hugin Expert. 2005. Hugin API Reference Manual, Version 6.4, September 2005. Hugin Expert, Aalborg, Denmark. [online] URL: http://www.hugin.com
50. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2006. 2006 IPCC guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, volume 4: agriculture, forestry and other land use. Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, H. S. Eggleston, L. Buendia, K. Miwa, T. Ngara, and K. Tanabe, editors. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Hayama, Japan. [online] URL: http://www. ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/vol4.html
51. Jensen, F. V. 2001. Bayesian networks and decision graphs. Springer, New York, New York, USA.
52. Kanton Graubünden. 2012. Waldentwicklungsplan, Kanton Graubünden, Switzerland. Amt für Wald und Naturgefahren, Chur, Switzerland. [online] URL: http://www.gr.ch/DE/ institutionen/verwaltung/bvfd/awn/dienstleistungen/4_5_1_w-aldplanung/Seiten/3_5_0_0_waldplanung.aspx
53. Kanton St. Gallen. 2006. Kreisforstamt IV See Rieden. Jahresbericht 2006. Kanton St. Gallen, Switzerland. [online] URL: http://www.wald.sg.ch/home/waldregion_4_see/archiv/_jcr_content/Par/downloadlist_0/DownloadListPar/download_3.ocFile/Jahresbericht%202006.pdf
54. Kobus, D. A., S. Proctor, and S. Holsteb. 2001. Effects of experience and uncertainty during dynamic decision making. International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics 28:275-290. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8141(01)00022-1
55. Kulakowski, D., P. Bebi, and C. Rixen. 2011. The interacting effects of land use change, climate change and suppression of natural disturbances on landscape forest structure in the Swiss Alps. Oikos 120:216-225. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18726.x
56. Laws, E. 1995. Tourism destination management: issues, analysis, and policies. Routledge, New York, New York, USA.
57. Lee, C. F., H. I. Huang, and H. R. Yeh. 2010. Developing an evaluation model for destination attractiveness: sustainable forest recreation tourism in Taiwan. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 18(6):811-828. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09669581003690478
58. LFI (Swiss National Forest Inventory). 2008. Regional inventory of forest characteristics in Davos. Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
59. Lindner, M., J. Garcia-Gonalo, M. Kolström, T. Green, R. Reguera, M. Maroschek, R. Seidl, M. F. Lexer, S. Netherer, A. Schopf, A. Kremer, S. Delzon, A. Barbati, M. Marchetti, and P. Corona. 2008. Impacts of climate change on European forests and option for adaption. Report to the European Commission Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development, Brussels Belgium. [online] URL: http://ec. europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/external/euro_forests/
60. Lippe, M., T. T. Min, A. Neef, T. Hilger, V. Hoffmann, N. T. Lam, and G. Cadisch. 2011. Building on qualitative datasets and participatory processes to simulate land use change in a mountain watershed of Northwest Vietnam. Environmental Modelling and Software 26:1454-1466. http://dx.doi. org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.07.009
61. Mace, G. M., K. Norris, and A. H. Fitter. 2012. Biodiversity and ecosystem services: a multilayered relationship. Trends in Ecology &Evolution 27:19-26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. tree.2011.08.006
62. MacEachren, A. M., A. Robinson, S. Hopper, S. Gardner, R. Murray, M. Gahegan, and E. Hetzler. 2005. Visualizing geospatial information uncertainty: what we know and what we need to know. Cartography and Geographic Information Science 32(3):139-160. http://dx.doi.org/10.1559/1523040054738936
63. Manfredi, E., B. Flury, G. Viviano, S. Thakuri, S. N. Khanal, P. K. Jha, R. K. Maskey, R. B. Kayastha, K. R. Kafle, S. Bhochhibhoay, N. P. Ghimire, B. B. Shrestha. G. Chaudhary, F. Giannino, F. Carteni, S. Mazzoleni, and F. Salerno. 2010. Solid waste and water quality management models for Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone, Nepal. Mountain Research and Development 30(2):127-142. http://dx.doi. org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-10-00028.1
64. McDonald, D., J. R. Crabtree, G. Wiesinger, T. Dax, N. Stamou, P. Fleury, J. Gutierrez Lazpita, and A. Gibon. 2000. Agricultural abandonment in mountain areas of Europe: environmental consequences and policy responses. Journal of Environmental Management 59:47-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/ jema.1999.0335
65. Merz, H. A., T. Schneider, and H. Bohnenblust. 1995. Bewertung von technischen Risiken Beiträge zur Strukturierung und zum Stand der Kenntnisse. Modelle zur Bewertung von Todesfallrisiken. Vdf Hochschulverlag AG, Zurich, Switzerland.
66. Metzger, M. J., M. D. A. Rounsevell, L. Acosta-Michlik, R. Leemans, and D. Schröter. 2006. The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114:69-85. http://dx.doi. org/10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.025
67. Naidoo, R., and T. H. Ricketts. 2006. Mapping the economic costs and benefits of conservation. PLoS Biology 4(11):e360. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040360
68. Nelson, E., G. Mendoza, J. Regetz, S. Polasky, H. Tallis, D. R. Cameron, K. M. A. Chan, G. C. Daily, J. Goldstein, P. M. Kareiva, E. Lonsdorf, R. Naidoo, T. H. Ricketts, and M. R. Shaw. 2009. Modeling multiple ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, commoditiy production, and tradeoffs at landscape scales. Ecosystem Services 7(1):4-11.
69. OcCC (Beratendes Organ für Fragen der Klimaänderung). 2003. Extreme events and climate change. OcCC, Berne, Switzerland.
70. Olschewski, R., P. Bebi, M. Teich, U. Wissen Hayek, and A. Grêt-Regamey. 2012. Avalanche protection by forests a choice experiment in the Swiss Alps. Forest Policy and Economics 15:108-113. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2011.10.002
71. Ordóñez Galán, C., J. M. Matias, T. Rivas, and F. G. Bastante. 2009. Reforestation planning using Bayesian networks. Environmental Modelling and Software 24:1285-1292. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.05.009
72. Pearl, J. 1988. Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, California, USA.
73. Reece, W., and L. Matthews. 1993. Evidence and uncertainty in subjective prediction: influences on optimistic judgment. Psychological Reports 72:435-439. http://dx.doi.org/10.2466/ pr0.1993.72.2.435
74. Rigling, A., C. Elkin, M. Dobbertin, B. Eilmann, A. Giuggiola, T. Wohlgemuth, and H. Bugmann. 2012. Waldentwicklung in zentral-alpinen Trockentälern unter fortschreitendem Klimawandel die Fallstudie Region Visp. Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Forstwesen 12:481-492. http://dx.doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.3188/ szf.2012.0481
75. Salerno, F., E. Cuccillato, P. Caroli, B. Bajracharya, E. C. Manfredi, G. Viviano, S. Thakuri, B. Flury, M. Basani, F. Giannino, and D. Panzeri. 2010. Experience With a hard and soft participatory modeling framework for social-ecological system management in Mount Everest (Nepal) and K2 (Pakistan) protected areas. Mountain Research and Development 30(2):80-93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1659/MRDJOURNAL-D-10-00014.1
76. Saxena, K. G., K. S. Rao, K. K. Sen, R. K. Maikhuri, and R. L. Semwal. 2001. Integrated natural resource management: approaches and lessons from the Himalaya. Ecology and Society 5(2): 14. [online] URL: http://www.consecol.org/ vol5/iss2/art14/
77. Scarpa R.S.M, Chilton, G.W. Hutchinson, and J. Buongiorno. 2000. Valuing the recreational benefits from the creation of nature reserves in Irish forests. Ecological Economics 33(2):237-250. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(99)00143-3
78. Schneebeli, M., M. Laternser, P. Föhn, and W. Amman. 1998. Wechselwirkungen zwischen Klima, Lawinen und technischen Massnahmen. Final Report of the NFP 31. Vdf Verlag, Zurich, Switzerland.
79. Scholze, M., W. Knorr, N. W. Arnell, and I. C. Prentice. 2006. A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103 (35):13116-13120. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0601816103
80. Schönenberger, W. 2001. Trends in mountain forest management in Switzerland. Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Forstwesen 152:152-156. http://dx.doi.org/10.3188/szf.2001.0152
81. Schröter, D., W. Cramer, R. Leemans, I. C. Prentice, M. B. Araujo, N. W. Arnell, A. Bondeau, H. Bugmann, T. R. Carter, C. A. Gracia, A. C. de la Vega-Leinert, M. Erhard, F. Ewert, M. Glendining, J. I. House, S. Kankaanpää, R. J. T. Klein, S. Lavorel, M. Lindner, M. J. Metzger, J. Meyer, T. D. Mitchell, I. Reginster, M. Rounsevell, S. Sabaté, S. Stich, P. Smith, M. T. Sykes, K. Thonicke, W. Thuiller, G. Tuck, S. Zaehle, and B. Zierl. 2005. Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 310:1333-1337. http://dx. doi.org/10.1126/science.1115233
82. Schweizerischer Forstverein, Arbeitsgruppe Wald und Wildtiere. 2004. Waldreservate und Auerhuhn. Reihe Vernetzung Nr. 2. Schweizerischer Forstverein, Frenkendorf, Switzerland. [online] URL: http://www.forstverein.ch/ fileadmin/Datenordner/arbeitsgruppen/wald_tiere/archiv/ vernetzung__2_2004.pdf
83. Schumacher, S., and H. Bugmann. 2006. The relative importance of climatic effects, wildfires and management for future forest landscape dynamics in the Swiss Alps. Global Change Biology 12:1435-1450. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ j.1365-2486.2006.01188.x
84. Seidl, R., P. Baier, W. Rammer, A. Schopf, and M. J. Lexer. 2007. Modelling tree mortality by bark beetle infestation in Norway spruce forests. Ecological Modelling 206:383-399. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.04.002
85. Stelzenmüller, V., J. Lee, E. Garnacho, and S. I. Rogers. 2010. Assessment of a Bayesian belief network-GIS framework to support marine planning. Marine Pollution Bulletin 60:1743-1754. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2010.06.024
86. Strassopoulou, A., M. Petrou, and J. Kittler. 1998. Application of a Bayesian network in GIS based decision making system. International Journal of Geographic Information Science 12 (1):23-46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/136588198241996
87. Swisstopo. 2004. Vector25. Swisstopo, Wabern, Berne, Switzerland. [online] URL: http://www.swisstopo.ch
88. Tallis, H. T., T. Ricketts, A. D. Guerry, S. A. Wood, R. Sharp, E. Nelson, D. Ennaanay, S. Wolny, N. Olwero, K. Vigerstol, D. Pennington, G. Mendoza, J. Aukema, J. Foster, J. Forrest, D. Cameron, K. Arkema, E. Lonsdorf, C. Kennedy, G. Verutes, C. K. Kim, G. Guannel, M. Papenfus, J. Toft, M. Marsik, and J. Bernhardt. 2011. InVEST 2.2.0 User's Guide. The Natural Capital Project, Stanford, California, USA.
89. TEEB. 2010. The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: ecological and economic foundations. P. Kumar, editor. Earthscan, London, UK.
90. Thürig, E., E. Kaufmann, S. Schmid, and H. Bugmann. 2005. Treibhausgas Inventar: Waldkennzahlen und jährlicher Klimaeinfluss. Federal Office of the Environment (FOEN), Bern, Switzerland.
91. Thürig, E., and S. Schmid. 2008. Jährliche CO2-Flüsse im Wald: Berechnungsmethode für das Treibhausgasinventar. Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Forstwesen 159(2):31-38. http://dx.doi.org/10.3188/szf.2008.0031
92. Tol, R. S. J. 2005. The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of uncertainties. Energy Policy 33:2064-2074. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2004.04.002
93. Turner, W. R., K. Brandon, T. M. Brooks, R. Constanza, G. A. B. da Fonseca, and R. Portela. 2007. Global conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. BioScience 57:868-873. http://dx.doi.org/10.1641/B571009
94. Usbeck, T., T. Wohlgemuth, M. Dobbertin, C. Pfister, A. Bürgi, and M. Rebetez. 2010. Increasing storm damage to forests in Switzerland from 1858 to 2007. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 150:47-55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. agrformet.2009.08.010
95. Villa, F., K. Bagstad, G. Johnson, and B. Voigt. 2011. Scientific instruments for climate change adaptation: estimating and optimizing the efficiency of ecosystem service provision. Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales 11 (1):83-98.
96. Walz, A., C. Lardelli, H. Behrendt, C. Lundstöm, A. GrêtRegamey, S. Kytzia, and P. Bebi. 2007. Participatory scenario analysis for integrated regional modelling. Landscape and Urban Planning 81:114-131. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. landurbplan.2006.11.001
97. Wilhelm, C. 1997. Wirtschaftlichkeit im Lawinenschutz. Methodik und Erhebungen zur Beurteilung von Schutzmassnahmen mittels quantitativer Risikoanalyse und ökonomischer Bewertung. Dissertation. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland.