Measuring the skill of variance-scaled climate reconstructions and a test for the capture of extremes

Holocene

Volumn 25, Issue 4, 2015, Pages 618-626

  McCarroll, Danny ^a   Young, Giles H F ^a   Loader, Neil J ^a  

^a SWANSEA UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

climate change; palaeoclimate; regression; statistical methods; tree rings; Medieval Warm Period

Indexed keywords

EXTREME EVENT; MAGNITUDE; MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD; PALEOCLIMATE; PROXY CLIMATE RECORD; RECONSTRUCTION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

FENNOSCANDIA;

EID: 84924897891     PISSN: 09596836     EISSN: 14770911     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0959683614565956     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Ahmed M,Anchukaitis KJ,Asrat A, et al.Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia.Nature Geoscience. 2013;6:339-346
2. Barbour MM.Stable oxygen isotope composition of plant tissue: A review.Functional Plant Biology. 2007;34:83-94
3. Brázdil R,Dobrovolný P,Luterbacher J, et al.European climate of the past 500 years: New challenges for historical climatology.Climatic Change. 2010;101:7-40
4. Brázdil R,Pfister C,Wanner H, et al.Historical climatology in Europe – The state of the art.Climatic Change. 2005;70:363-430
5. Briffa KR,Melvin TM,Osborn TJ, et al.Reassessing the evidence for tree-growth and inferred temperature change during the Common Era in Yamalia, northwest Siberia.Quaternary Science Reviews. 2013;72:83-107
6. Büntgen U,Frank DC,Grudd H, et al.Long-term summer temperature variations in the Pyrenees.Climate Dynamics. 2008;31:615-631
7. Büntgen U,Frank DC,Nievergelt D, et al.Summer temperature variations in the European Alps, AD 755–2004.Journal of Climate. 2006;19:5606-5623
8. Büntgen U,Trouet V,Frank D, et al.Tree-ring indicators of German summer drought over the last millennium.Quaternary Science Reviews. 2010;29:1005-1016
9. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences. Cook ERKairiukstis LA, ed. Dordrecht; Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers; 1990:394.
10. Cook ER,Seager R,Cane MA, et al.North American drought: Reconstructions, causes, and consequences.Earth-Science Reviews. 2007;81:93-134
11. Danis PA,Masson-Delmotte V,Stievenard M, et al.Reconstruction of past precipitation δ18O using tree-ring cellulose δ18O and δ13C: A calibration study near Lac d’Annecy, France.Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 2006;243:439-448
12. Esper J,Wilson RJS,Frank DC, et al.Climate: Past ranges and future changes.Quaternary Science Reviews. 2005;24:2164-2166
13. Kajander J.Methodological aspects on river cryophenology exemplified by a tricentennial break-up time series from Tornio.Geophysica. 1993;29:73-95
14. Kiss A,Wilson R,Bariska I.An experimental 392-year documentary-based multi-proxy (vine and grain) reconstruction of May-July temperatures for KAszeg, West-Hungary.International Journal of Biometeorology. 2011;55:595-611
15. Klingbjer P,Moberg A.A composite monthly temperature record from Tornedalen in northern Sweden, 1802–2002.International Journal of Climatology. 2003;23:1465-1494
16. Liñán ID,Buentgen U,Gonzalez-Rouco F, et al.Estimating 750 years of temperature variations and uncertainties in the Pyrenees by tree-ring reconstructions and climate simulations.Climate of the Past. 2012;8:919-933
17. Liu JJ,Yang B,Huang K, et al.Annual regional precipitation variations from a 700 year tree-ring record in south Tibet, western China.Climate Research. 2012;53:25-41
18. Loader NJ,Jalkanen R,McCarroll D, et al.Spring temperature variability in northern Fennoscandia AD 1693–2011.Journal of Quaternary Science. 2011;26:566-570
19. McCarroll D,Loader NJ,Jalkanen R, et al.A 1200-year multiproxy record of tree growth and summer temperature at the northern pine forest limit of Europe.Holocene. 2013;23:471-484
20. Magnuson JJ,Robertson DM,Benson BJ, et al.Historical trends in lake and river ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere.Science. 2001;291:254
21. Mann ME,Bradley RS,Hughes MK.Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations.Geophysical Research Letters. 1999;26:759-762
22. Moberg A,Sonechkin DM,Holmgren K, et al.Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data.Nature. 2005;433:613-617
23. Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press; 2007:
24. Neukom R,Luterbacher J,Villalba R, et al.Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries.Climate Dynamics. 2011;37:35-51
25. Opala M,Mendecki MJ.An attempt to dendroclimatic reconstruction of winter temperature based on multispecies tree-ring widths and extreme years chronologies (example of Upper Silesia, Southern Poland).Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2014;115:73-89
26. Poljanšek S,Ceglar A,Levanič T.Long-term summer sunshine/moisture stress reconstruction from tree-ring widths from Bosnia and Herzegovina.Climate of the Past. 2013;9:27-40
27. Popa I,Kern Z.Long-term summer temperature reconstruction inferred from tree-ring records from the Eastern Carpathians.Climate Dynamics. 2009;32:1107-1117
28. Rinne KT,Loader NJ,Switsur VR, et al.400-year May-August precipitation reconstruction for Southern England using oxygen isotopes in tree rings.Quaternary Science Reviews. 2013;60:13-25
29. Sano M,Ramesh R,Sheshshayee MS, et al.Increasing aridity over the past 223 years in the Nepal Himalaya inferred from a tree-ring delta O-18 chronology.Holocene. 2012;22:809-817
30. Saurer M,Borella S,Leuenberger M.δ18O of tree rings of beech (Fagus sylvatica) as a record of δ18O of the growing season precipitation.Tellus Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology. 1997;49:80-92
31. Treydte K,Boda S,Graf Pannatier E, et al.Seasonal transfer of oxygen isotopes from precipitation and soil to the tree ring: Source water versus needle water enrichment.New Phytologist. 2014;202:772-783
32. Trouet V,Panayotov MP,Ivanova A, et al.A pan-European summer teleconnection mode recorded by a new temperature reconstruction from the northeastern Mediterranean (AD1768–2008).Holocene. 2012;22:887-898
33. Von Storch H,Zorita E,Jones JM, et al.Reconstructing past climate from noisy data.Science. 2004;306:679-682
34. Wigley TML,Briffa KR,Jones PD.On the average value of correlated time-series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology.Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology. 1984;23:201-213
35. Yang B,Kang X,Liu J, et al.Annual temperature history in Southwest Tibet during the last 400 years recorded by tree rings.International Journal of Climatology. 2010;30:962-971
36. Young GHF,Bale RJ,Loader NJ, et al.Central England temperature since AD 1850: The potential of stable carbon isotopes in British oak trees to reconstruct past summer temperatures.Journal of Quaternary Science. 2012a;27:606-614
37. Young GHF,McCarroll D,Loader NJ, et al.Changes in atmospheric circulation and the Arctic Oscillation preserved within a millennial length reconstruction of summer cloud cover from northern Fennoscandia.Climate Dynamics. 2012b;39:495-507