Comparison and validation of three versions of a forest wind risk model

Environmental Modelling and Software

Volumn 68, Issue , 2015, Pages 27-41

  Hale, Sophie A ^a   Gardiner, Barry ^a,b   Peace, Andrew ^a   Nicoll, Bruce ^a   Taylor, Philip ^a,c   Pizzirani, Stefania ^a,d  

^a FOREST RESEARCH   (United Kingdom)

^b BORDEAUX SCIENCES AGRO   (France)

^c CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY   (United Kingdom)

^d SCION   (New Zealand)

Author keywords

Decision support system; Forest disturbance; Mechanistic modelling; Risk modelling; Validation; Wind damage

Indexed keywords

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS; ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS; ECOSYSTEMS; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; LOGISTIC REGRESSION; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK MANAGEMENT; STORMS; WIND;

FOREST DISTURBANCES; FOREST ECOSYSTEM; MECHANISTIC MODELING; MECHANISTIC MODELS; RISK MODELLING; STATISTICAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION; VALIDATION; WIND DAMAGE;

FORESTRY;

COMPARATIVE STUDY; CONIFEROUS FOREST; DAMAGE; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; DISTURBANCE; ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT; FOREST ECOSYSTEM; MODEL VALIDATION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; WIND VELOCITY;

FORESTS; MODELS; RISK ASSESSMENT; WIND;

SCOTLAND; UNITED KINGDOM;

CONIFEROPHYTA;

EID: 84923037655     PISSN: 13648152     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.01.016     Document Type: Article

References (93)

1. Albrecht A., Hanewinkel M., Bauhus J., Kohnle U. How does silviculture affect storm damage in forests of south-west Germany? Results from empirical modeling based on long-term observations. Eur. J. For. Res. 2012, 131:229-247.
2. Albrecht A., Kohnle U., Hanewinkel M., Bauhus J. Storm damage of Douglas-fir unexpectedly high compared to Norway spruce. Ann. For. Sci. 2013, 70:195-207.
3. Ancelin P., Courbaud B., Fourcaud T. Development of an individual tree-based mechanical model to predict wind damage within forest stands. For. Ecol. Manag. 2004, 203:101-121.
4. Andersson M., Kellomäki S., Gardiner B., Blennow K. Life-style services and forest yield under wind-damage risk adapted forest management - a simulation study. Reg. Environ. Change 2014, 10.1007/s10113-014-0687-8.
5. Anon Forests for Scotland: the Scottish Forestry Strategy 2000, Forestry Commission, Edinburgh.
6. Anon The Scottish Forestry Strategy 2006, Forestry Commission, Edinburgh.
7. Anon Cowal and Trossachs Forestry Strategy 2009, Forestry Commission, Edinburgh.
8. Bélouard T., Marchadier R., Merzeau D., Meredieu C., Brunet Y., Drouineau S., Paillassa E., Riou-Nivert P. Évaluation des facteurs de résistance au vent des peuplements de pin maritime après la tempête Klaus à l'aide des données de l'inventaire forestie 2012, (Rapport final d'une étude réalisée avec l'appui financier du Conseil Régional d'Aquitaine).
9. Bennett N.D., Croke B.F.W., Guariso G., Guillaume J.H.A., Hamilton S.H., Jakeman A.J., Marsili-Libelli S., Newhama L.T.H., Norton J.P., Perrin C., et al. Characterising performance of environmental models. Environ. Modell. Softw. 2013, 40:1-20.
10. Blackburn G.R.A. The Growth and Mechanical Response of Trees to Wind Loading 1997, PhD Thesis, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
11. Blennow K., Persson J., Wallin A., Vareman N., Persson E. Understanding risk in forest ecosystem services: implications for effective risk management, communication and planning. Forestry 2014, 87:219-228. 10.1093/forestry/cpt032.
12. Boose E.R., Marcheterre F., Foster D.R. Hurricane impacts to tropical and temperate forest landscapes. Ecol. Monogr. 1994, 64:369-400.
13. Byrne K.E. Critical Turning Moments and Drag Equations for British Columbia Conifers 2005, MSc thesis, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
14. Byrne K.E., Mitchell S.J. Testing of WindFIRM/ForestGALES_BC: a hybrid-mechanistic model for predicting windthrow in partially harvested stands. Forestry 2013, 86:185-199. 10.1093/forestry/cps077.
15. Colin F., Vinkler I., Rou-Nivert P., Renaud J.-P., Hervé J.-C., Bock J., Piton B. Facteurs de risques de chablis dans les peuplements forestiers : les leçons tirées des tempêtes de 1999. La forêt face aux tempêtes 2009, 177-228. Editions Quae. Y. Birot, G. Landmann, I. Bonhême (Eds.).
16. Cook N.J. The Designer's Guide to Wind Loading of Building Structures 1985, Butterworths, London, 371 pp.
17. Crockford A., Hui S.-Y. Wind Profiles and Forests: Validation of Wind Resource Assessment Methodologies Including the Effects of Forests 2007, MSc Thesis Project, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark.
18. Cucchi V., Meredieu C., Stokes A., de Coligny F., Suárez J., Gardiner B. Modelling the windthrow risk for simulated forest stands of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.). For. Ecol. Manag. 2005, 213:184-196.
19. Dassot M., Constant T., Fournier M. The use of terrestrial LiDAR technology in forest science: application fields, benefits and challenges. Ann. For. Sci. 2011, 68:959-974. 10.1007/s13595-011-0102-2.
20. Dellwik E., Landberg L., Jensen N.O. WAsP in the Forest. Wind Energy 2006, 9:211-218.
21. Dunham R., Gardiner B., Quine C., Suarez J. ForestGALES - a PC-based Wind Risk Model for British Forests. User Guide 2000, Forestry Commission, Edinburgh.
22. Edwards P.N., Christie J.M. Yield Models for Forest Management 1981, HMSO, London.
23. Fonweban J., Gardiner B., Auty D. Variable-top merchantable volume equations for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.) in Northern Britain. Forestry 2012, 85:237-253.
24. Fonweban J., Gardiner B., Macdonald E., Auty D. Taper functions for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) carr.) in Northern Britain. Forestry 2011, 84:49-60.
25. Forestry Commission Operational Guidance Booklet No.32 'Production Forecasting' (Internal Guidance) 2008, Forestry Commission, Edinburgh.
26. Forestry Commission Operational Guidance Booklet No.9 'Thinning' (Internal Guidance) 2010, Forestry Commission, Edinburgh.
27. Forestry Commission NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview 2012, Forestry Commission, Edinburgh. http://www.forestry.gov.uk/pdf/NFI-Methodology-Paper_NFI-Forecasts-Methodology-Overview.pdf/%24FILE/NFI-Methodology-Paper_NFI-Forecasts-Methodology-Overview.pdf.
28. Gardiner B., Blennow K., Carnus J.-M., Fleischer P., Ingemarson F., Landmann G., Lindner M., Marzano M., Nicoll B., Orazio C., et al. Destructive Storms in European Forests: Past and Forthcoming Impacts 2010, Final Report to EC DG Environment. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/forests/fprotection.htm.
29. Living With Storm Damage to Forests: What Science Can Tell Us 3 2013, European Forest Institute. http://www.efi.int/files/attachments/publications/efi_wsctu_3_final_net.pdf, B. Gardiner, A. Schuck, M.-J. Schelhaas, C. Orazio, K. Blennow, B. Nicoll (Eds.).
30. Gardiner B., Welton P. Mitigation of forest damage. Living WithStorm Damage to Forests: What Science Can Tell Us 3 2013, European Forest Institute. http://www.efi.int/files/attachments/publications/efi_wsctu_3_final_net.pdf, B. Gardiner, A. Schuck, M.-J. Schelhaas, C. Orazio, K. Blennow, B. Nicoll (Eds.).
31. Gardiner B.A., Byrne K., Hale S.E., Kamimura K., Mitchell S., Peltola H., Ruel J.-C. Areview of mechanistic modelling of wind damage risk to forests. Forestry 2008, 81:447-463.
32. Gardiner B.A., Marshall B.J., Achim A., Belcher R.E., Wood C.J. The stability of different silvicultural systems: a wind-tunnel investigation. Forestry 2005, 78:471-484.
33. Gardiner B.A., Peltola H., Kellomaki S. Comparison of two models for predicting the critical wind speeds required to damage coniferous trees. Ecol. Model. 2000, 129:1-23.
34. Gardiner B.A., Quine C.P. Management of forests to reduce the risk of abiotic damage - a review with particular reference to the effects of strong winds. For. Ecol. Manag. 2000, 135:261-277.
35. Gardiner B.A., Stacey G.R., Belcher R.E., Wood C.J. Field and wind tunnel assessments of the implications of respacing and thinning for tree stability. Forestry 1997, 70:233-252.
36. Gardiner B.A., Suarez J., Achim A., Hale S.E., Nicoll B.C. ForestGALES 2 - a PC-based Wind Risk Model for British Forests. User Guide 2004, Forestry Commission, Edinburgh.
37. Hale S.E., Levy P.E., Gardiner B.A. Trade-offs between seedling growth, thinning and stability in Sitka spruce stands and the implications for alternative silvicultural systems: a modelling analysis. For. Ecol. Manag. 2004, 187:105-115.
38. Hale S.E., Gardiner B.A., Wellpott A., Nicoll B.C., Achim A. Wind loading of trees: influence of tree size and competition. Eur. J. For. Res. 2012, 131:203-217. 10.1007/s10342-010-0448-2.
39. Hanewinkel M., Albrecht A., Schmidt M. Influence of stand characteristics and landscape structure on wind damage. Living With Storm Damage to Forests: What Science Can Tell Us 3 2013, European Forest Institute. http://www.efi.int/files/attachments/publications/efi_wsctu_3_final_net.pdf, B. Gardiner, A. Schuck, M.-J. Schelhaas, C. Orazio, K. Blennow, B. Nicoll (Eds.).
40. Hanewinkel M., Hummel S., Albrecht A. Assessing natural hazards in forestry for risk management: a review. Eur. J. For. Res. 2011, 130:329-351. 10.1007/s10342-010-0392-1.
41. Hanewinkel M., Breidenbach J., Neeff T., Kublin E. Seventy-seven years of natural disturbances in a mountain forest area - the influence of storm, snow, and insect damage analysed with a long-term time series. Can. J. For. Res. 2008, 38:2249-2261. 10.1139/X08-070.
42. Hirano A., Welch R., Lang H. Mapping from ASTER stereo image data: DEM validation and accuracy assessment. ISPRS J. Photogramm. Remote Sens. 2003, 57:356-370. 10.1016/S0924-2716(02)00164-8.
43. Hosmer D.W., Lemeshow S. Applied Logistic Regression 2000, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York. second ed.
44. Plant Disturbance Ecology: the Process and the Response 2007, Academic Press, Burlington, MA, USA, 698 pp. E.A. Johnson, K. Miyanishi (Eds.).
45. Kamimura K., Gardiner B., Kato A., Hiroshima T., Shiraishi N. Developing a decision support approach to reduce wind damage risk - a case study on sugi [Cryptomeria japonica (L.f.) D.Don] forests in Japan. Forestry 2008, 81:429-446.
46. Lagergren F., Jönsson A.M., Blennow K., Smith B. Implementing storm damage in a dynamic vegetation model for regional applications in Sweden. Ecol. Model 2012, 247:71-82.
47. Lanquaye-Opoku N., Mitchell S.J. Portability of stand-level empirical windthrow risk models. For. Ecol. Manag. 2005, 216:134-148.
48. Lavers G.M. The Strength Properties of Timbers 1969, For. Prod. Res. Lab., London.
49. Lopes da Costa J.C., Castro F.A., Palma J.M.L.M., Stuart P. Computer simulation of atmospheric flows over real forests for wind energy resource evaluation. J.Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 2006, 94:603-620.
50. Mason W.L. Are irregular stands more windfirm?. Forestry 2002, 75:347-355.
51. Mason W.L., Quine C.P. Silivcultural possibilities for increasing structural diversity in British spruce forests: the case of Kielder forest. For. Ecol. Manag. 1995, 79:13-28.
52. Mikklesen S.K. "Stormfald" : a Further Developed Version of ForestGALES Tested under Danish Conditions 2007, MSc Thesis, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
53. Miller K.F. Windthrow Hazard Classification, Forestry Commission Leaflet 85 1985, HMSO, London.
54. Mitchell S.J. Stem growth responses in Douglas-fir and Sitka spruce following thinning: implications for assessing windfirmness. For. Ecol. Manag. 2000, 135:105-114.
55. Moore J.R., Somerville A.R. Assessing the risk of wind damage to plantation forests in New Zealand. N.Z. For. 1998, 31:25-29.
56. Morgan J., Cannell G.R. Shape of tree stems: a re-examination of the uniform stress hypothesis. Tree Physiol. 1994, 14:49-62.
57. Mortensen N.G., Landberg L., Troen I., Petersen E.L. Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) 1993, Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark.
58. Nicoll B.C., Gardiner B.A., Peace A.J. Improvements in anchorage provided by the acclimation of forest trees to wind stress. Forestry 2008, 81:389-398.
59. Nicoll B.C., Gardiner B.A., Rayner B., Peace A.J. Anchorage of coniferous trees in relation to species, soil type, and rooting depth. Can. J. For. Res. 2006, 36:1871-1883.
60. Nicoll B.C., Ray D. Adaptive growth of tree root systems in response to wind action and site conditions. Tree Physiol. 1996, 11:891-898.
61. Papesch A. Wind and Its Effects on (Canterbury) Forests 1984, PhD Thesis, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
62. Peltola H., Kellomäki S., Vaisanen H., Ikonen V.-P. Amechanistic model for assessing the risk of wind and snow damage to single trees and stands of Scots pine, Norway spruce and birch. Can. J. For. Res. 1999, 29:647-661.
63. Persson P. Windthrow in Forests - Its Causes and The Effect of Forestry Measures 1975, Research Note No. 36, Department of Forest Yield Research, Royal College of Forestry, Stockholm, Sweden.
64. Quine C. An Improved Understanding of Windthrow - Moving From Hazard Towards Risk 1994, Research Information Note No. 257, Forestry Commission, Edinburgh.
65. Quine C.P. Assessing the risk of wind damage to forests: practice and pitfalls. Wind and Trees 1995, 379-403. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. M.P. Coutts, J. Grace (Eds.).
66. Quine C.P. Estimation of mean wind climate and probability of strong winds for wind risk assessment. Forestry 2000, 73:247-258.
67. Quine C.P., Bell P.D. Monitoring of windthrow occurrence and progression in spruce forests in Britain. Forestry 1998, 71:87-97.
68. Quine C.P., Gardiner B.A. Understanding how the interaction of wind and trees results in windthrow, stem breakage and canopy gap formation. Plant Disturbance Ecology: the Process and the Response 2007, 103-155. Academic Press, Burlington, USA. E. Johnson (Ed.).
69. Quine C.P., White I.M.S. Revised Windiness Scores for the Windthrow Hazard Classification: the Revised Scoring Method 1993, Information Note No. 230, Forestry Commission, Edinburgh.
70. Raupach M.R. Simplified expressions for vegetation roughness length and zero-plane displacement as functions of canopy height and area index. Bound Layer Meteorol. 1994, 71:211-216.
71. Ray D., Bathgate S., Moseley D., Taylor P., Nicoll B., Pizzirani S., Gardiner B. Comparing the provision of ecosystem services in plantation forests under alternative climate change adaptation management options in Wales. Reg. Environ. Change 2014, 10.1007/s10113-014-0644-6.
72. Ray D., Rayner B. ESC-DSS Default Soil Nutrient Regimes (SNR) and Soil Moisture Regimes (SMR) Associated with the Forestry Commission Soil Classification 2002, Unpublished report, Forest Research, Roslin.
73. Ruel J.-C., Achim A., Espinoza R.H., Cloutier A., Brossier B. Wood degradation after windthrow in a northern environment. For. Prod. J. 2010, 60:200-206.
74. Ruel J.-C., Larouche C., Achim A. Changes in root morphology after precommercial thinning in balsam fir stands. Can. J. For. Res. 2003, 33:2452-2459.
75. Ruel J.-C., Quine C.P., Meunier S., Suarez J. Estimating windthrow risk in balsam fir stands with the ForestGALES model. For. Chron. 2000, 76:329-337.
76. Schelhaas M.-J., Hengeveld G., Moriondo M., Reinds G.J., Kundzewicz Z.W., ter Maat H., Bindi M. Assessing risk and adaptation options to fires and windstorms in European forestry. Mitt. Adapt. Strat. Glob. Chang. 2010, 15:681-701.
77. Schelhaas M.-J., Nabuurs G.-J., Schuck A. Natural disturbances in the European forests in the 19th and 20th centuries. Glob. Change Biol. 2003, 9:1620-1633.
78. Schmidt M., Hanewinkel M., Kändler G., Kublin E., Kohnle U. An inventory-based approach for modeling single tree storm damage-experiences with the winter storm 1999 in southwestern Germany. Can. J. For. Res. 2010, 40:1636-1652.
79. Schmoeckel J., Kottmeier C. Storm damage in the Black forest caused by the winter storm "Lothar" - part 1: airborne damage assessment. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2008, 8:795-803.
80. Schütz J.-P., Götz M., Schmid W., Mandallaz D. Vulnerability of spruce (Picea abies) and beech (Facus sylvatica) forest stands to storms and consequences for silviculture. Eur. J. For. Res. 2006, 125:291-302.
81. Seidl R., Rammer W., Blennow K. Simulating wind disturbance impacts on forest landscapes: tree-level heterogeneity matters. Environ. Modell. Softw. 2014, 51:1-11.
82. Seidl R., Schelhaas M.-J., Lexer M.J. Unraveling the drivers of intensifying forest disturbance regimes in Europe. Glob. Change Biol. 2011, 17:2842-2852. 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02452.x.
83. Suárez J., García J., Gardiner B., Patenaude G. The estimation of wind risk in forests stands using airborne laser scanning. J.For. Plan. 2008, 13:165-185.
84. Suárez J.C. An Analysis of the Consequences of Stand Variability in Sitka Spruce Plantations in Britain Using a Combination of Airborne LiDAR Analysis and Models 2010, PhD Thesis, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
85. Suárez J.C., Dunham R.A., Barrette J., Gardiner B.A. The Validation of ForestGALES 2002, Unpublished report, Forest Research, Roslin.
86. Suárez J.C., Gardiner B.A., Quine C.P. Acomparison of three methods for predicting wind speeds in complex forested terrain. Meteorol. Appl. 1999, 6:329-342.
87. Troen I., Petersen E.L. European Wind Atlas 1989, Risø National Laboratory, Denmark.
88. UK Met Office Land Surface Stations Data (1900-2000) 2002, British Atmospheric Data Centre, (accessed 06.03.12.). http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/.
89. Usbeck T., Waldner P., Dobbertin M., Ginzler C., Hoffmann C., Sutter F., Steinmeier C., Volz R., Schneiter G., Rebetez M. Relating remotely sensed forest damage data to wind data: storms Lothar (1999) and Vivian (1990) in Switzerland. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2012, 108:451-462.
90. Usbeck T., Wohlgemuth T., Dobbertin M., Pfister C., Bürgi A., Rebetez M. Increasing storm damage to forests in Switzerland from 1858 to 2007. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2010, 150:47-55.
91. Valinger E., Fridman J. Factors affecting the probability of windthrow at stand level as a result of Gudrun winter storm in southern Sweden. For. Ecol. Manag. 2011, 262:398-403.
92. Wallentin C., Nilsson U. Storm and snow damage in a Norway spruce thinning experiment in southern Sweden. Forestry 2014, 87:229-238. 10.1093/forestry/cpt046.
93. Wellpott A. The Stability of Continuous Cover Forests 2008, PhD Thesis, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.