Current Obstacles in Replicating Risk Assessment Findings: A Systematic Review of Commonly Used Actuarial Instruments

Behavioral Sciences and the Law

Volumn 31, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 154-164

  Rossegger, Astrid ^a,b   Gerth, Juliane ^a,b   Seewald, Katharina ^a   Urbaniok, Frank ^a,b   Singh, Jay P ^c,d   Endrass, Jérôme ^a,b  

^a Psychiatric Psychological Service   (Switzerland)

^b UNIVERSITY OF KONSTANZ   (Germany)

^c UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA   (United States)

^d MOLDE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE   (Norway)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EQUIPMENT; HUMAN; PREDICTIVE VALUE; REPRODUCIBILITY; REVIEW; RISK ASSESSMENT; STANDARD; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS; HUMANS; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 84874330172     PISSN: 07353936     EISSN: 10990798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/bsl.2044     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Archer, R. P., Buffington-Vollum, J. K., Stredny, R. V., & Handel, R. W. (2006). A survey of psychological test use patterns among forensic psychologists. Journal of Personality Assessment, 87(1), 84-94. DOI: 10.1207/s15327752jpa8701_07
2. Barbaree, H. E., Langton, C. M., Blanchard, R., & Cantor, J. M. (2009). Aging versus stable enduring traits as explanatory constructs in sex offender recidivism. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 36(5), 443-465. DOI: 10.1177/0093854809332283
3. Benda, B. B. (2005). Gender differences in life-course theory of recidivism: A survival analysis. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 49(3), 325-342. DOI: 10.1177/0306624X04271194
4. Endrass, J., Rossegger, A., Frischknecht, A., Noll, T., & Urbaniok, F. (2008). Using the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) to predict in-prison aggressive behavior in a Swiss offender population. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 52(1), 81-89. DOI: 10.1177/0306624X07301643
5. Endrass, J., Urbaniok, F., Held, L., Vetter, S., & Rossegger, A. (2009). Accuracy of the Static-99 in predicting recidivism in Switzerland. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 53(4), 482-490. DOI: 10.1177/0306624X07312952
6. Grove, W. M., Zald, D. H., Lebow, B. S., Snitz, B. E., & Nelson, C. (2000). Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis. Psychological Assessment, 12(1), 19-30.
7. Hanson, R. K. (2012). Static-99/R FAQ. Retrieved July 2012, from http://www.static2099.org/pdfdocs/faq.pdf
8. Harris, G. T., & Rice, M. E. (2003). Actuarial assessment of risk among sex offenders. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 989, 198-210.
9. Harris, G. T., & Rice, M. E. (2007). Characterizing the value of actuarial violence risk assessments. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34(12), 1638-1658.
10. Harris, A., Phenix, A., Thornton, D., & Hanson, R. K. (2003). Static 99: Coding rules revised 2003. Canada: Solicitor General.
11. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Camilleri, J. A. (2004). Applying a forensic actuarial assessment (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide) to nonforensic patients. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 19(9), 1063-1074. DOI: 10.1177/0886260504268004
12. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Cormier, C. A. (2002). Prospective replication of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide in predicting violent recidivism among forensic patients. Law and Human Behavior, 26, 377-394.
13. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Quinsey, V. L., Lalumière, M. L., Boer, D., & Lang, C. (2003). A multisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders. Psychological Assessment, 15(3), 413-425. DOI: 10.1037/1040-3590.15.3.413
14. Hastings, M. E., Krishnan, S., Tangney, J. P., & Stuewig, J. (2011). Predictive and incremental validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores with male and female jail inmates. Psychological Assessment, 23(1), 174-183.
15. Kroner, D. G., & Mills, J. F. (2001). The accuracy of five risk appraisal instruments in predicting institutional misconduct and new convictions. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28(4), 471-489. DOI: 10.1177/009385480102800405
16. Kröner, C., Stadtland, C., Eidt, M., & Nedopil, N. (2007). The validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) in predicting criminal recidivism. Criminal Behavior and Mental Health, 17, 89-100.
17. Lindsay, W. R., Todd, H. E., Taylor, J., Steptoe, L., Mooney, P., O'Brien, G., ... Smith, A. H. W. (2008). Risk assessment in offenders with intellectual disability: A comparison across three levels of security. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 52, 90-111.
18. Loza, W., Villeneuve, D. B., & Loza-Fanous, A. (2002). Predictive validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide: A tool for assessing violent offender's recidivism. International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 25(1), 85-92.
19. Mossmann, D. (1994). Assessing predictions of violence: Being accurate about accuracy. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 62(4), 783-792.
20. Phenix, A., Hanson, R. K., Harris, A. J. R., & Thornton, D. (2012). Static-99 & related risk assessment research. Retrieved July 2012, from www.static99.org
21. Quinsey, V. L., Book, A., & Skilling, T. A. (2004). A follow-up of deinstitutionalized men with intellectual disabilities and histories of antisocial behaviour. Journal of Applied Research in Intellectual Disabilities, 17(4), 243-253.
22. Quinsey, V. L., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Cormier, C. A. (2006). Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk 2nd ed. Washington DC: American Psychological Association.
23. Rettenberger, M., Matthes, A., Boer, D. P., & Eher, R. (2009). Prospective actuarial risk assessment: A comparison of five risk assessment instruments in different sexual offender subtypes. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 54(2), 169-186. DOI: 10.1177/0306624x08328755
24. Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (2003). Life-course desisters? Trajectories of crime among delinquent boys followed to age 70*. Criminology, 41(3), 301-340.
25. Singh, J. P., Grann, M., & Fazel, S. (2011). A comparative study of violence risk assessment tools: a systematic review and metaregression analysis of 68 studies involving 25, 980 participants. Clinical PsychologyReview, 31(3), 499-513. DOI: 10.1016/j.cpr.2010.11.009
26. Snowden, R. J., Gray, N. S., & Taylor, J. (2010). Risk assessment for future violence in individuals from an ethnic minority group. International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, 9, 118-123.
27. StataCorp. (2011). Stata Statistical Software: Release 12. College Station: TX: StataCorp LP.
28. Storey, J. E., Watt, K. A., Jackson, K. J., & Hart, S. D. (2012). Utilization and implications of the Static-99 in practice. Sexual Abuse, 24(3), 289-302. DOI: 10.1177/1079063211423943
29. Viljoen, J. L., McLachlan, K., & Vincent, G. M. (2010). Assessing violence risk and psychopathy in juvenile and adult offenders: a survey of clinical practices. Assessment, 17(3), 377-395. DOI: 10.1177/1073191109359587
30. Waypoint. (2012). Retrieved July 2012, from Waypoint Centre for Mental Health Care http://www.mhcp.on.ca/Site_Published/internet/SiteContent.aspx?Body.QueryId.Id = 1673&LeftNavigation.QueryId.Categories=62