Climate-driven changes in UK river flows: A review of the evidence

Progress in Physical Geography

Volumn 39, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 29-48

  Hannaford, Jamie ^a  

^a National River Flow Archive   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

climate change; drought; flood; river flow; trend; UK

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE VARIATION; DROUGHT; FLOOD; HYDROLOGICAL REGIME; RIVER FLOW; TREND ANALYSIS;

UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84922798253     PISSN: 03091333     EISSN: 14770296     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0309133314536755     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. Arnell NW.Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2011;15 (3): 897-912
2. Bayliss A,Norris J,Marsh TJ.The Wendover Springs record: An insight into the past and a benchmark for the future.Weather. 2004;59:267-271
3. Biggs EM,Atkinson PM.A characterisation of climate variability and trends in hydrological extremes in the Severn uplands.International Journal of Climatology. 2011;31:1634-1652
4. Black AR,Burns JC.Re-assessing the flood risk in Scotland.Science of the Total Environment. 2002;294 (1–3): 169-184
5. Bradford RB,Marsh TJ.Defining a network of benchmark catchments for the UK.Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers – Water and Maritime Engineering. 2003;156 (2): 109-116
6. Burke EJ,Brown SJ.Regional drought over the UK and changes in the future.Journal of Hydrology. 2010;394 (3–4): 471-485
7. Burn DH,Hannaford J,Hodgkins GA,Whitfield PH,Thorne R,Marsh T.Hydrologic Reference Networks II: Using Reference Hydrologic Networks to assess climate driven change.Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2012;57:1580-1593
8. Burt TP,Howden NJK.North Atlantic Oscillation amplifies orographic precipitation and river flow in upland Britain.Water Resources Research. 2013;49 (6): 3504-3515
9. Chen Z,Grasby SE.Impact of decadal and century-scale oscillations on hydroclimate trend analyses.Journal of Hydrology. 2009;365 (1–2): 122-133
10. Cohn TA,Lins HF.Nature’s style: Naturally trendy.Geophysical Research Letters. 2005;32 (23): L23402
11. Dixon H,Hannaford J,Fry M.The effective management of national hydrometric data – experiences from the United Kingdom.Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2013;58 (7): 1383-1389
12. Dixon H,Lawler DM,Shamseldin AY.Streamflow trends in western Britain.Geophysical Research Letters. 2006;33 (19): L19406
13. Dong BW,Sutton RT,Woollings T.Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing.Climate Dynamics. 2011;37 (7–8): 1621-1641
14. Dong BW,Sutton RT,Woollings T,Hodges K.Variability of the North Atlantic summer storm track: Mechanisms and impacts on European climate.Environmental Research Letters. 2013;8:034037
15. Ekstrom M,Fowler HJ,Kilsby CG,Jones PD.New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations. 2. Future estimates and impact studies.Journal of Hydrology. 2005;300:234-251
16. Francis JA,Vavrus SJ.Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes.Geophysical Research Letters. 2012;39:L06801
17. Giuntoli I,Renard B,Vidal JP,Bard A.Low flows in France and their relationship to large-scale climate indices.Journal of Hydrology. 2013;482:105-118
18. Hannaford J,Buys G.Trends in seasonal river flow regimes in the UK.Journal of Hydrology. 2012;475:158-174
19. Hannaford J,Hall JChanges in Flood Risk in Europe. Kundzewicz Z, ed. Wallingford: IAHS Press; 2012:344-361.
20. Hannaford J,Marsh TJ.An assessment of trends in UK runoff and low flows using a network of undisturbed catchments.International Journal of Climatology. 2006;26 (9): 1237-1253
21. Hannaford J,Marsh TJ.High-flow and flood trends in a network of undisturbed catchments in the UK.International Journal of Climatology. 2008;28 (10): 1325-1338
22. Hannaford J,Buys G,Stahl K,Tallaksen LM.The influence of decadal-scale variability on trends in European streamflow records.Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences. 2013;17:2717-2733
23. Hannaford J,Lloyd-Hughes B,Keef C,Parry S,Prudhomme C.Examining the large-scale spatial coherence of European drought using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit.Hydrological Processes. 2011;25 (7): 1146-1162
24. Harrigan S,Murphy C,Hall J,Wilby RL,Sweeney J.Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions. 2013;10:12373-12416
25. Hirsch RM.A perspective on nonstationarity and water management.Journal of the American Water Resources Association. 2011;47 (3): 436-446
26. Huntington TG.Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis.Journal of Hydrology. 2006;319 (1–4): 83-95
27. Jones PD,Lister DH.Riverflow reconstructions for 15 catchments over England and Wales and an assessment of hydrologic drought since 1865.International Journal of Climatology. 1998;18 (9): 999-1013
28. Jones PD,Lister DH,Wilby RL,Kostopoulou E.Extended riverflow reconstructions for England and Wales, 1865–2002.International Journal of Climatology. 2006;26 (2): 219-231
29. Kay AL,Jones DA.Transient changes in flood frequency and timing in Britain under potential projections of climate change.International Journal of Climatology. 2012;32:489-502
30. Kay AL,Crooks SM,Pall P,Stone DA.Attribution of autumn/winter 2000 flood risk in England to anthropogenic climate change: A catchment-based study.Journal of Hydrology. 2011;406 (1–2): 97-112
31. Kendon MC,Marsh TJ,Parry S.The 2010–2012 drought in England and Wales.Weather. 2013;68 (4): 88-95
32. Kundzewicz ZW,Robson AJ.Change detection in hydrological records – a review of the methodology.Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2004;49 (1): 7-19
33. Laizé CLR,Hannah DM.Modification of climate–river flow associations by basin properties.Journal of Hydrology. 2010;389 (1–2): 186-204
34. Lavers DA,Allan RP,Wood EF,Villarini G,Brayshaw DJ,Wade AJ.Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers.Geophysical Research Letters. 2011;38:L23803
35. Lavers DA,Prudhomme C,Hannah DM.Large-scale climate, precipitation and British river flows: Identifying hydroclimatological connections and dynamics.Journal of Hydrology. 2010;395 (3–4): 242-255
36. Lavers DA,Villarini G,Allan RP,Wood EF,Wade AJ.The detection of atmospheric rivers in atmospheric reanalyses and their links to British winter floods and the large scale atmospheric circulation.Journal of Geophysical Research. 2012;117:D02016
37. Lloyd-HughesBPrudhommeCHannafordJParrySKeefCReesG (2012) Spatial coherence of European droughts. Stage 1: UK and European Drought Catalogues. Environment Agency Science Report SC070079/SR1. Bristol: Environment Agency, 66 pp.
38. Macdonald N.Trends in flood seasonality of the River Ouse (northern England), from archive and instrumental sources since AD 1600.Climatic Change. 2012;110:901-923
39. Macdonald N,Black AR.Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse at York.Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2010;55 (7): 1152-1162
40. Macdonald N,Phillips ID,Mayle G.Spatial and temporal variability of flood seasonality in Wales.Hydrological Processes. 2010;24 (13): 1806-1820
41. Macdonald N,Werritty A,Black AR,McEwen LJ.Historical and pooled flood frequency analysis for the River Tay at Perth.Area. 2006;38 (1): 34-46
42. MarshTJDixonH (2012) The UK water balance: How much has it changed in a warming world? In: ‘Hydrology for a changing world’, Proceedings of the Eleventh National BHS Symposium, Dundee. British Hydrological Society. Available at: http://79.170.44.105/test-hydrology.org.uk/assets/Documents/Marsh_32.pdf.
43. Marsh TJ,Harvey CL.The Thames Flood Series – a lack of trend in flood magnitude and a decline in maximum levels.Hydrology Research. 2012;43 (3): 203-214
44. Marsh T,Cole G,Wilby R.Major droughts in England and Wales, 1800–2006.Weather. 2007;62:87-93
45. Merz B,Vorogushyn S,Uhlemann S,Delgado J,Hundecha Y.HESS Opinions: More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series.Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences. 2012;16 (5): 1379-1387
46. Murphy C,Harrigan S,Hall J,Wilby RL.Climate-driven trends in mean and high flows from a network of reference stations in Ireland.Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2013;58 (4): 755-772
47. Murphy JM,Sexton D,Jenkins G,Boorman P,Booth B,Brown K,Clark R,Collins M,Harris G,Kendon LUK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change Projections. Exeter: Met Office Hadley Centre; 2009:
48. Pall P,Aina T,Stone DA,Stott PA,Nozawa T,Hilberts AGJ,Lohmann D,Allen MR.Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000.Nature. 2011;470 (7334): 382-385
49. Parry S,Marsh TJ,Kendon MC.2012: From drought to floods in England and Wales.Weather. 2013;68 (10): 268-274
50. Pattison I,Lane SN.The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK.International Journal of Climatology. 2012;32 (13): 1971-1989
51. Prudhomme C,Crooks S,Kay AL,Reynard N.Climate change and river flooding. Part 1: Classifying the sensitivity of British catchments.Climatic Change. 2013;119 (3–4): 933-948
52. Prudhomme C,Young A,Watts G,Haxton T,Crooks S,Williamson J,Davies H,Dadson S,Allen S.The drying up of Britain? A national estimate of changes in seasonal river flows from 11 Regional Climate Model simulations.Hydrological Processes. 2012;26 (7): 1115-1118
53. Radziejewski M,Kundzewicz ZW.Detectability of changes in hydrological records.Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2004;49 (1): 39-51
54. Robson AJ.Evidence for trends in UK flooding.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. 2002;360 (1796): 1327-1343
55. Robson AJ,Jones TK,Reed DW,Bayliss AC.A study of national trend and variation in UK floods.International Journal of Climatology. 1998;18 (2): 165-182
56. Screen J.Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation.Environmental Research Letters. 2013;8:044015
57. SlingoJBelcherSScaifeAMcCarthyMSaulterAMcBeathKJenkinsAHuntingfordCMarshTHannafordJParryS (2014) The recent storms and floods in the UK. Met Office/CEH report. Exeter: Met Office.
58. Stahl K,Hisdal H,Hannaford J,Tallaksen LM,van Lanen HAJ,Sauquet E,Demuth S,Fendekova M,Jódar J.Streamflow trends in Europe: Evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2010;14 (12): 2367-2382
59. Stott PA,Gillet NP,Hegerl GC,Karoly DJ,Stone DA,Zhang X,Zwiers F.Detection and attribution of climate change: A regional perspective.Wiley Interdisciplinary Review: Climate Change. 2010;1 (2): 192-211
60. Sutton R,Dong B.Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s.Nature Geosciences. 2012;5:788-792
61. Tett SFB,Deans K,Mazza E,Mollard J‘Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective’, Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2013:S32-S35.
62. von Christierson BV,Vidal JP,Wade SD.Using UKCP09 probabilistic climate information for UK water resource planning.Journal of Hydrology. 2012; (424–425): 48-67
63. Watts G,Christierson BV,Hannaford J,Lonsdale K.Testing the resilience of water supply systems to long droughts in England and Wales.Journal of Hydrology. 2012; (414–415): 255-267
64. Watts G,Battarbee R,Bloomfield J,Crossman J,Daccache A,Durance I,Elliot E,Garner G,Hannaford J,Hannah D,Hess T,Jackson C,Kay A,Kernan M,Knox J,McKay J,Monteith D,Ormerod S,Rance J,Stuart M,Wade A,Wade S,Weatherhead K,Whitehead P,Wilby RProgress in Physical Geography. In press:
65. Werritty A.Living with uncertainty: Climate change, river flows and water resource management in Scotland.Science of the Total Environment. 2002;294 (1–3): 29-40
66. Whitfield PH,Burn DH,Hannaford J,Higgins H,Hodgkins GA,Marsh T,Looser U.Reference hydrologic networks I: The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends.Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2012;57 (8): 1562-1579
67. Wilby RL.When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows?.Geophysical Research Letters. 2006;33 (19): L19407
68. Wilby RL,Quinn NW.Reconstructing multi-decadal variations in fluvial flood risk using atmospheric circulation patterns.Journal of Hydrology. 2013;487:109-121
69. Wilby RL,Beven KJ,Reynard NS.Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK: More of the same?.Hydrological Processes. 2008;22 (14): 2511-2523