Transient changes in flood frequency and timing in Britain under potential projections of climate change

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 32, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 489-502

  Kay, A L ^a   Jones, D A ^a  

^a CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Annual maxima; Flood frequency; Hydrological impacts; Transient climate change; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL MAXIMA; FLOOD FREQUENCY; HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS; TRANSIENT CLIMATE CHANGE; UNCERTAINTY;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; FLOODS; RAIN; RUNOFF; TIME SERIES; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CATCHMENTS;

BASELINE CONDITIONS; CATCHMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; FLOOD FREQUENCY; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; TREND ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ENGLAND; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84863410253     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.2288     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Barlow RE, Bartholomew DJ, Bremner JM, Brunk HD. 1972. Statistical inference under order restrictions; the theory and application of isotonic regression. Wiley: New York.
2. Bell VA, Kay AL, Jones RG, Moore RJ. 2007. Development of a high resolution grid-based river flow model for use with regional climate model output. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11: 532-549.
3. Bell VA, Kay AL, Jones RG, Moore RJ, Reynard NS. 2009. Use of soil data in a grid-based hydrological model to estimate spatial variation in changing flood risk across the UK. Journal of Hydrology 377: 335-350.
4. Bell VA, Gedney N, Kay AL, Smith R, Jones RG, Moore RJ. 2010. Estimating potential evaporation from vegetated surfaces for water management impact assessments using climate model output. Submitted to Journal of Hydrometeorology.
5. Cox PM, Betts RA, Bunton CB, Essery RM, Rowntree PR, Smith J. 1999. The impact of new land surface physics on the GCM simulation of climate and climate sensitivity. Climate Dynamics 15: 183-203.
6. Cran GW. 1980. Amalgamation of Means in the Case of Simple Ordering. Applied Statistics 29: 209-211.
7. Crooks SM, Kay AL, Reynard NS. 2009. Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows: hydrological models, catchments and calibration. Report to Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, FD2020 milestone report, CEH Wallingford, November 2009, 53 pp.
8. Davison AC, Hinkley DV. 1997. Bootstrap Methods and their Application. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
9. Dettinger MD, Cayan DR, Meyer MK, Jeton AE. 2004. Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American river basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099. Climatic Change 62: 283-317.
10. Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. 2003. A regional frequency analysis of United Kingdom extreme rainfall from 1961 to 2000. International Journal of Climatology 23: 1313-1334.
11. Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. 2007. Using regional climate model data to simulate historical and future river flows in northwest England. Climatic Change 80: 337-367.
12. Fowler HJ, Wilby RL. 2010. Detecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood risk. Water Resources Research 46: W03525, DOI:10.1029/2008WR007636.
13. Graham LP, Andreasson J, Carlsson B. 2007a. Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods-a case study on the Lule River basin. Climatic Change 81: 293-307.
14. Graham LP, Hageman S, Jaun S, Beniston M. 2007b. On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models. Climatic Change 81: 97-122.
15. Hannaford J, Marsh TJ. 2006. An assessment of trends in UK runoff and low flows using a network of undisturbed catchments. International Journal of Climatology 26: 1237-1253.
16. Hannaford J, Marsh TJ. 2007. High-flow and flood trends in a network of undisturbed catchments in the UK. International Journal of Climatology 28: 1325-1338.
17. Hannaford J, Laize CR, Marsh T. 2007. An assessment of runoff trends in natural catchments in the Celtic regions of North West Europe. In: Water in Celtic countries: quantity, quality and climate variability, Lobo Ferreira JP, Viera JMP (eds). Proceedings of the Fourth InterCeltic Colloquium on hydrology and management of water resources, Guimaraes, Portugal, 2005. Wallingford, IAHS Press: 78-85. (IAHS Red Book, 310).
18. Hough M, Palmer S, Weir A, Lee M, Barrie I. 1996. The Meteorological Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System: MORECS version 2.0 (1995). An update to Hydrological Memorandum 45. The Met. Office: Bracknell.
19. Hulme M, Jenkins GJ, Lu X, Turnpenny JR, Mitchell TD, Jones RG, Lowe J, Murphy JM, Hassell D, Boorman P, McDonald R, Hill S. 2002. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia: Norwich, UK.
20. IPCC. 2000. Special report on emissions scenarios (SRES): A special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
21. Kay AL, Jones RG, Reynard NS. 2006a. RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. II. Climate change results. Journal of Hydrology 318: 163-172.
22. Kay AL, Reynard NS, Jones RG. 2006b. RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. II. Methods and validation. Journal of Hydrology 318: 151-162.
23. Kay AL, Jones DA, Crooks SM, Kjeldsen TR, Fung CF. 2007. An investigation of site-similarity approaches to generalisation of a rainfall-runoff model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11: 500-515.
24. Kay AL, Davies HN, Bell VA, Jones RG. 2009. Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England. Climatic Change, 92: 41-63, DOI:10.1007/s10584-008-9471-4.
25. Keenlyside NS, Latif M, Jungclaus J, Kornblueh L, Roeckner E. 2008. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453: 84-88.
26. Kendon EJ, Rowell DP, Jones RG, Buonomo E. 2008. Robustness of future changes in local precipitation extremes. Journal of Climate 21: 4280-4297.
27. Kerr RA. 2007. Humans and nature dual over the next decade's climate. Science 317: 746-747.
28. Kundzewicz ZW, Robson AJ. 2004. Change detection in hydrological records-a review of the methodology. Hydrological Sciences Journal 49: 7-19.
29. Monteith JL. 1965. Evaporation and environment. Symposia of the Society for Experimental Biology 19: 205-234.
30. Moore RJ. 1985. The probability-distributed principle and runoff production at point and basin scales. Hydrological Sciences Journal 30: 273-297.
31. Moore RJ. 2007. The PDM rainfall-runoff model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11: 483-499.
32. Moore RJ, Bell VA, Jones DA. 2005. Forecasting for flood warning. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 337: 203-217.
33. Morris DG. 2003. Automation and appraisal of the FEH statistical procedures for flood frequency estimation. Report to UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Environment Agency, Project FD1603 technical report, CEH Wallingford, October 2003, 207 pp.
34. Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Jenkins GJ, Booth BBB, Brown CC, Clark RT, Collins M, Harris GR, Kendon EJ, Betts RA, Brown SJ, Humphrey KA, McCarthy MP, McDonald RE, Stephens A, Wallace C, Warren R, Wilby R, Wood RA. 2009. UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate change projections. Met Office Hadley Centre: Exeter.
35. Pope VD, Gallani ML, Rowntree PR, Stratton RA. 2000. The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Climate Dynamics 16: 123-146.
36. Prudhomme C, Reynard N, Crooks S. 2002. Downscaling from global climate models for flood frequency analysis: where are we now? Hydrological Processes 16: 1137-1150.
37. Prudhomme C, Davies HN. 2009. Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on river flow regimes in the UK. Part 2: future climate. Climatic Change 93: 197-222, DOI:10.1007/s10584-008-9461-6.
38. Reynard NS, Crooks SM, Kay AL. 2004. Impact of climate change on flood flows in river catchments. Report to the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Environment Agency, Project W5-032 technical report, CEH Wallingford, March 2004, 97 pp.
39. Robson AJ. 2002. Evidence for trends in UK flooding. Philosophical Transactions of the Royaal Society of London, Series A 360: 1327-1343, DOI:10.1098/rsta.2002.1003.
40. Robson AJ, Reed DW. 1999. Statistical procedures for flood frequency estimation. Vol. 3, Flood Estimation Handbook. Institute of Hydrology: Wallingford, UK, 338 pp.
41. Smith DM, Cusack S, Colman AW, Folland CK, Harris GR, Murphy JM. 2007. Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317: 796-799.
42. Thodsen H. 2007. The influence of climate change on stream flow in Danish rivers. Journal of Hydrology 333: 226-238.
43. Thompson N, Barrie IA, Ayles M. 1982. The Meteorological Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System: MORECS (July 1981). Hydrological Memorandum No. 45, Met Office: Bracknell.
44. Wilby RL, Beven KJ, Reynard NS. 2008. Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK: more of the same? Hydrological Processes 22: 2511-2523.
45. Wilby RL, Harris I. 2006. A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low-flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resources Research 42: W02419, DOI:10.1029/2005WR004065.
46. Wood R. 2008. Natural ups and downs. Nature 453: 43-44.