The influence of decadal-scale variability on trends in long European streamflow records

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 17, Issue 7, 2013, Pages 2717-2733

  Hannaford, J ^a   Buys, G ^a   Stahl, K ^b,c   Tallaksen, L M ^c  

^a CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF FREIBURG   (Germany)

^c UNIVERSITY OF OSLO   (Norway)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DECADAL VARIATIONS; EASTERN EUROPE; HYDROLOGICAL INDICATORS; INTER-DECADAL VARIABILITY; LONG-TERM CHANGES; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONS; STREAMFLOW RECORDS; TREND DETECTION;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CATCHMENTS; DIGITAL STORAGE; RUNOFF;

STREAM FLOW;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CATCHMENT; DATA QUALITY; DECADAL VARIATION; HYDROMETRY; LONG-TERM CHANGE; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; RIVER FLOW; STREAMFLOW; TREND ANALYSIS;

EUROPE;

EID: 84880673099     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-17-2717-2013     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Bard, A., Renard, B., and Lang, M.: The AdaptAlp Dataset. Description, guidance and analyses. Final Report, UR HHLY, Hydrology-Hydraulics Lyon, 15 pp., 2011
2. Bard, A., Renard, B., and Lang, M.: Floods in the Alpine areas of Europe, in: Changes in flood risk in Europe, edited by: Kundzewicz, Z., International Association of Hydrological Sciences-Special Publication 10 (Blue Book series), 362-371, 2012
3. Bordi, I., Fraedrich, K., and Sutera, A.: Observed drought and wetness trends in Europe: an update, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1519-1530, doi:10.5194/hess-13-1519-2009, 2009
4. Bouwer, L. M., Vermaat, J. E., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Regional sensitivities of mean and peak river discharge to climate variability in Europe, J. Geophys. Res. 113, D19103, doi:10.1029/2008JD010301, 2008
5. Bŕazdil, R., Kundzewicz, Z. W., and Benito G.: Historical hydrology for studying flood risk in Europe, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 51, 739-764, 2006
6. Burn, D. H., Sharif, M., and Zhang, K.: Detection of trends in hydrological extremes for Canadian watersheds, Hydrol. Process., 24, 1781-1790, 2010
7. Burn, D. H., Hannaford, J., Hodgkins, G. A., Whitfield, P., Thorne, R., and Marsh, T. J.: Hydrologic Reference Networks II. Using Reference Hydrologic Networks to assess climate driven change, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 57, 1580-1593, 2012
8. Chandler, R. and Scott, M.: Statistical methods for trend detection and analysis in the environmental sciences, Wiley, Chichester, UK, 2011
9. Chen, Z. and Grasby, S. E.: Impact of decadal and century-scale oscillations on hydroclimate trend analyses, J. Hydrol., 365, 122-133, 2009
10. Clarke, R. T.: On the (mis)use of statistical methods in hydroclimatological research, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 55, 139-144, 2010
11. Cohn, T. A. and Lins, H. F.: Nature's style: Naturally trendy, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L23402, doi:10.1029/2005GL024476, 2005
12. Dai, A., Qian, T., Trenberth, K. E., and Milliman, J. D.: Changes in Continental Freshwater Discharge from 1948 to 2004, J. Climate, 22, 2773-2792, 2009
13. Dong, B. W., Sutton, R. T., and Woollings, T.: Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing, Clim. Dynam., 37, 1621-1641, 2011
14. Fiala, T., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., and Hladńy, J.: Evolution of low flows in the Czech Republic, J. Hydrol., 393, 206-218, 2010
15. Giorgi, F., Im, E. S., Coppola, E., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Gao, X. J., Mariotti, L., and Shi, Y.: Higher Hydroclimatic Intensity with Global Warming, J. Climate, 24, 5309-5324, 2011
16. Giuntoli, I., Renard, B., and Lang, M.: Floods in France, in: Changes in flood risk in Europe, edited by: Kundzewicz, Z., International Association of Hydrological Sciences-Special Publication 10 (Blue Book series), IAHS Wallingford, 199-211, 2012
17. Giuntoli, I., Renard, N., Vidal, J. P., and Bard, A.: Low flows in France and their relationship to large-scale climate indices, J. Hydrol., 482, 105-118, 2013
18. Gudmundsson, L., Tallaksen, L. M., Stahl, K., and Fleig, A. K.: Low-frequency variability of European runoff, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2853-2869, doi:10.5194/hess-15-2853-2011, 2011
19. Hamed, K. H.: Exact distribution of the Mann-Kendall trend test statistic for persistent data, J. Hydrol., 365, 86-94, 2009
20. Hannaford, J. and Buys, G.: Trends in seasonal river flow regimes in the UK, J. Hydrol., 475, 158-174, 2012
21. Hannaford, J. and Marsh, T. J.: High-flow and flood trends in a network of undisturbed catchments in the UK, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1325-1338, 2008
22. Hannaford, J., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Keef, C., Parry, S., and Prudhomme, C.: Examining the large-scale spatial coherence of European drought using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1146-1162, 2011
23. Hannah, D. M., Demuth, S., van Lanen, H. A. J., Looser, U., Prudhomme, C., Rees, G., Stahl, K., and Tallaksen, L. M.: Large-scale river flow archives: importance, current status and future needs, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1191-1200, 2011
24. Hodgkins, G. A.: Streamflow changes in Alaska between the cool phase (1947-1976) and the warm phase (1977-2006) of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The influence of glaciers, Water Resour. Res., 45, W06502, doi:10.1029/ 2008WR007575, 2009
25. Hodgkins, G. A. and Dudley, R. W.: Changes in the timing of winter-spring streamflows in eastern North America, 1913-2002, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06402, doi:10.1029/2005GL025593, 2006
26. Huntington, T. G.: Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis, J. Hydrol., 319, 83-95, 2006
27. IPCC: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp., 2007
28. Jain, S., Hoerling, M., and Eischeid, J.: Decreasing reliability and increasing synchroneity of western North American streamflow, J. Climate, 18, 613-618, 2005
29. Khaliq, M. N., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., and Gachon, P.: Identification of temporal trends in annual and seasonal low flows occurring in Canadian rivers: The effect of short-and long-term persistence, J. Hydrol., 369, 183-197, 2009
30. Korhonen, J. and Kuusisto, E.: Long-term changes in the discharge regime in Finland, Hydrol. Res., 41, 253-268, 2010
31. Koutsoyiannis, D.: Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 3-24, 2003
32. Kundzewicz, Z. W. and Robson, A. J.: Change detection in hydrological records-a review of the methodology, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 49, 7-19, 2004
33. Lavers, D. A., Villarini, G., Allan, R. P., Wood, E. F., and Wade, A. J.: The detection of atmospheric rivers in atmospheric reanalyses and their links to British winter floods and the large-scale climatic circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D20106, doi:10.1029/2012JD018027, 2012
34. Ĺopez-Moreno, J. I. and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Positive and Negative Phases of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and Drought Occurrence over Europe: A Multitemporal-Scale Approach, J. Climate, 21, 1220-1243, 2008
35. Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Ĺopez-Moreno, J. I., Gonźalez-Hidalgo, J. C., and Moŕan-Tejeda, E.: The response of Iberian rivers to the North Atlantic Oscillation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2581-2597, doi:10.5194/hess-15-2581-2011, 2011
36. Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lopez-Moreno, J. I., Moran-Tejeda, E., and Zabalza, J.: Recent trends in Iberian streamflows (1945-2005), J. Hydrol., 414, 463-475, 2012
37. Luce, C. H. and Holden, Z. A.: Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1948-2006, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L16401, doi:10.1029/2009GL039407, 2009
38. Majercakova, O., Fendekova, M., and Leskova, D.: The variability of hydrological series due to extreme climatic conditions and the possible change of the hydrological characteristics with respect to potential climate change, in: FRIEND'97-Regional Hydrology: concepts and Models for Sustainable Water Management, IAHS Publication, 246, 59-65, 1997
39. Marsh, T. and Harvey, C. L.: The Thames flood series: a lack of trend in flood magnitude and a decline in maximum levels, Hydrol. Res., 43, 203-214, 2012
40. McCabe, G. J. and Wolock, D. M.: A step increase in streamflow in the conterminous United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2185, doi:10.1029/ 2002GL015999, 2002
41. Milly, P. C., Dunne, K. A., and Vecchia, A. V.: Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate, Nature, 438, 347-350, 2005
42. Murphy, C., Harrigan, S., Hall, J., and Wilby, R. L.: Climate-driven trends in mean-and high-flows from a network of reference stations in Ireland, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 58, 755-772, 2013
43. Pagano, T. and Garen, D.: A recent increase in western US streamflow variability and persistence, J. Hydrometeorol., 6, 173-179, 2005
44. Parry, S., Hannaford, J., Prudhomme, C., Lloyd-Hughes, B., and Williamson, J.: Objective drought and high flow catalogues for Europe,WATCH Technical Report 33,Water and Global Change Project, Wallingford, 57 pp., available at: http://www.eu-watch. org/publications/technical-reports, 2011
45. Pekarova, P., Miklanek, P., and Pekar, J.: Spatial and temporal runoff oscillation analysis of the main rivers of the world during the l9th-20th centuries, J. Hydrol., 274, 62-79, 2003
46. Petrow, T., Zimmer, J., and Merz, B.: Trends in flood magnitude, frequency and seasonality in Germany in the period 1951-2002, J. Hydrol., 371, 129-141, 2009
47. Probst, J. L. and Tardy, Y.: Long-Range Streamflow andWorld Continental Runoff Fluctuations since the Beginning of This Century, J. Hydrol., 94, 289-311, 1987
48. Radziejewski, M. and Kundzewicz, Z. W.: Detectability of changes in hydrological records, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 49, 39-51, 2004
49. Renard, B., Lang, M., Bois, P., Dupeyrat, A., Mestre, O., Niel, H., Sauquet, E., Prudhomme, C., Parey, S., Paquet, E., Neppel, L., and Gailhard, J.: Regional methods for trend detection: assessing field significance and regional consistency, Water Resour. Res., 44, W08419, doi:10.1029/2007WR006268, 2008
50. Rennermalm, A. K.,Wood, E. F., and Troy, T. J.: Observed changes in pan-arctic cold-season minimum monthly river discharge, Clim. Dynam., 35, 923-939, 2010
51. Schmocker-Fackel, P. and Naef, F.: More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in Switzerland since 1850, J. Hydrol., 381, 1-8, 2010a
52. Schmocker-Fackel, P. and Naef, F.: Changes in flood frequencies in Switzerland since 1500, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1581-1594, doi:10.5194/hess-14-1581-2010, 2010b
53. Shiklomanov, A. I. and Lammers, R. B.: Record Russian river discharge in 2007 and the limits of analysis, Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 045015, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045015, 2009
54. Sousa, P. M., Trigo, R. M., Aizpurua, P., Nieto, R., Gimeno, L., and Garcia-Herrera, R.: Trends and extremes of drought indices throughout the 20th century in the Mediterranean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 33-51, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-33-2011, 2011
55. Stahl, K., Hisdal, H., Hannaford, J., Tallaksen, L. M., van Lanen, H. A. J., Sauquet, E., Demuth, S., Fendekova, M., and J́odar, J.: Streamflow trends in Europe: evidence from a dataset of nearnatural catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2367-2382, doi:10.5194/hess-14-2367-2010, 2010
56. Stahl, K., Tallaksen, L. M., Hannaford, J., and van Lanen, H. A. J.: Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2035-2047, doi:10.5194/hess-16-2035-2012, 2012
57. Svensson, C., Hannaford, J., Kundzewicz, Z. W., and Marsh, T.: Trends in river floods: why is there no clear signal in observations?, in: Frontiers in Flood Research, Proceedings of Kovacs Colloquium, Paris, June 2006, IAHS Publ. 305, 2006
58. Svensson, C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., and Maurer, T.: Trend detection in river flow series: 2. Flood and low-flow index series, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 50, 811-824, 2005
59. Sutton, R. and Dong, B.: Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s, Nat. Geosci., 5, 788-792, 2012
60. Trnka, M., Dubrovsky, M., Svoboda, M., Semeradova, D., Hayes, M., Zalud, Z. and Wilhite, D.: Developing a regional drought climatology for the Czech Republic, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 863-883, 2009
61. Ummenhofer, C. C., England, M. H., McIntosh, P. C., Meyers, G. A., Pook, M. J., Risbey, J. S., Gupta, A. S., and Taschetto, A. S.: What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04706, doi:10.1029/2008GL036801, 2009
62. van der Schrier, G., Efthymiadis, D., Briffa, K. R., and Jones, P. D.: European Alpine moisture variability for 1800-2003, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 415-427, 2007
63. Verpe-Dyrdall, A., Saloranta, T., Skaugen, T., and Bache-Stranden, H.: Changes in snow depth in Norway during the period 1961-2010, Hydrol. Res., 44, 169-179, 2013
64. Villarini, G., Smith, J. A., Serinaldi, F., and Ntelekos, A. A.: Analyses of seasonal and annual maximum daily discharge records for central Europe, J. Hydrol., 399, 299-312, 2011
65. Viviroli, D., Schadler, B., Schmocker-Fackel, P., Weiler, M., and Seibert, J.: On the risk of obtaining misleading results by pooling streamflow data for trend analyses, Water Resour. Res., 48, W05601, doi:10.1029/ 2011WR011690, 2012
66. Whitfield, P., Burn, D., Hannaford, J., Higgins, H., Hodgkins, G. A., Marsh, T. J., and Looser, U.: Hydrologic Reference Networks I. The Status of National Reference Hydrologic Networks for Detecting Trends and Future Directions, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 57, 1562-1579, 2012
67. Wilby, R. L.: When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19407, doi:10.1029/2006GL027552, 2006
68. Wilson, D., Hisdal, H., and Lawrence, D.: Has streamflow changed in the Nordic countries?-Recent trends and comparisons to hydrological projections, J. Hydrol., 394, 334-346, 2010
69. Woo, M.-K., Thorne, R., and Szeto, K. K.: Reinterpretation of streamflow trends based on shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation, Hydrol. Process., 20, 3995-4003, 2006
70. Wrzesínski, D. and Paluszkiewicz, R.: Spatial differences in the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the flow of rivers in Europe, Hydrol. Res., 42, 30-39, 2010
71. Zaidman, M. D., Rees, H. G., and Young, A. R.: Spatio-temporal development of streamflow droughts in north-west Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 733-751, doi:10.5194/hess-6-733-2002, 2002