Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 370, Issue 1659, 2015, Pages 1-9

  Pershing, Andrew J ^a,b   Mills, Katherine E ^a,b   Record, Nicholas R ^c   Stamieszkin, Karen ^a,b   Wurtzell, Katharine V ^a,b   Byron, Carrie J ^d   Fitzpatrick, Dominic ^a,b   Golet, Walter J ^a,b   Koob, Elise ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MAINE   (United States)

^b GULF OF MAINE RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (United States)

^c BIGELOW LABORATORY FOR OCEAN SCIENCES   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF NEW ENGLAND   (United States)

Author keywords

Fish; Plankton; Regime shift; Residence time; Trophic cascade

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; BEHAVIORAL RESPONSE; CORRELATION; MARINE ECOSYSTEM; RESIDENCE TIME; TIME SERIES; TROPHIC LEVEL; ZOOPLANKTON;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; BALTIC SEA; BLACK SEA; SCOTIA SHELF;

EID: 84911922082     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0265     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. de Young B, Harris RP, Alheit J, Beaugrand G, Mantua N, Shannon L. 2004 Detecting regime shifts in the ocean: data considerations. Prog. Oceanogr. 60, 143-164. (doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.017)
2. Cury P, Shannon L. 2004 Regime shifts in upwelling ecosystems: observed changes and possible mechanisms in the northern and southern Benguela. Prog. Oceanogr. 60, 223-243. (doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.007)
3. Collie JS, Richardson K, Steele JH. 2004 Regime shifts: can ecological theory illuminate the mechanisms? Prog. Oceanogr. 60, 281-302. (doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.013)
4. Lees K, Pitois S, Scott C, Frid C, Mackinson S. 2006 Characterizing regime shifts in the marine environment. Fish Fish. 7, 104-127. (doi:10.1111/j. 1467-2979.2006.00215.x)
5. Wooster WS, Zhang CI. 2004 Regime shifts of the North Pacific: early indications of the 1976-1977 event. Prog. Oceanogr. 60, 183-200. (doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.005)
6. Anderson PJ, Piatt JF. 1999 Community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska following ocean climate regime shift. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 189, 117-123. (doi:10.3354/meps189117)
7. Mantua NJ, Hare SR. 2002 The Pacific decadal oscillation. J. Oceanogr. 58, 35-44. (doi:10.1023/A:1015820616384)
8. Polovina JJ. 2005 Climate variation, regime shifts, and implications for sustainable fisheries. Bull. Mar. Sci. 76, 233-244.
9. Aschan M, Fossheim M, Greenacre M, Primicerio R. 2013 Change in fish community structure in the Barents Sea. PLoS ONE 8, e62748. (doi:10.1371/journal/pone.0062748)
10. Beaugrand G et al. 2015 Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 370, 20130272. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2013.0272)
11. Hare S, Mantua N. 2000 Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Prog. Oceanogr. 47, 103-145. (doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00033-1)
12. Chavez FP, Ryan J, Lluch-Cota SE, Niquen M. 2003 From anchovies to sardines and back: multidecadal change in the Pacific Ocean. Science 299, 217-221. (doi:10.1126/science.1075880)
13. Beaugrand G. 2004 The North Sea regime shift: evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences. Prog. Oceanogr. 60, 245-262. (doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.018)
14. Pitois SG, Lynam CP, Jansen T, Halliday N, Edwards M. 2012 Bottom-up effects of climate on fish populations: data from the continuous plankton recorder. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 456, 169-186. (doi:10.3354/meps09710)
15. Greene CH et al. 2013 Remote climate forcing of decadal-scale regime shifts in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems. Limnol. Oceanogr. 58, 803-816. (doi:10.4319/lo.2013.58.3.0803)
16. MERCINA. 2012 Recent Arctic climate change and its remote forcing of Northwest Atlantic Shelf ecosystems. Oceanography 25, 208-213. (doi:10.5670/oceanog.2012.64)
17. Halpern BS et al. 2008 A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems. Science 319, 948-952. (doi:10.1126/science.1149345)
18. Baum JK, Worm B. 2009 Cascading top-down effects of changing oceanic predator abundances. J. Anim. Ecol. 78, 699-714. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01531.x)
19. Strong DR. 1992 Are trophic cascades all wet—differentiation and donor-control in speciose ecosystems. Ecology 73, 747-754. (doi:10.2307/1940154)
20. Paine RT. 1980 Food webs—linkage, interaction strength and community infrastructure—the 3rd Tansley Lecture. J. Anim. Ecol. 49, 667-685. (doi:10.2307/4220)
21. Hairston NG, Smith FE, Slobodkin LB. 1960 Community structure, population control, and competition. Am. Nat. 94, 421-425. (doi:10.1086/282146)
22. Pace ML, Cole JJ, Carpenter SR, Kitchell JF. 1999 Trophic cascades revealed in diverse ecosystems. Trends Ecol. Evol. 14, 483-488. (doi:10.1016/s0169-5347(99)01723-1)
23. Preisser EL, Bolnick DI, Grabowski JH. 2009 Resource dynamics influence the strength of nonconsumptive predator effects on prey. Ecol. Lett. 12, 315-323. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01290.x)
24. Frank KT, Petrie B, Shackell NL. 2007 The ups and downs of trophic control in continental shelf ecosystems. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22, 236-242. (doi:10.1016/j.tree.2007.03.002)
25. Carpenter SR, Kitchell JF, Hodgson JR. 1985 Cascading trophic interactions and lake productivity. BioScience 35, 634-639. (doi:10.2307/1309989)
26. Estes JA, Danner EM, Doak DF, Konar B, Springer AM, Steinberg PD, Tinker MT, Williams TM. 2004 Complex trophic interactions in kelp forest ecosystems. Bull. Mar. Sci. 74, 621-638.
27. Myers RA, Baum JK, Shepherd TD, Powers SP, Peterson CH. 2007 Cascading effects of the loss of apex predatory sharks from a coastal ocean. Science 315, 1846-1850. (doi:10.1126/science.1138657)
28. Pauly D, Christensen V, Dalsgaard J, Froese R, Torres Jr F. 1998 Fishing down marine food webs. Science 279, 860-863. (doi:10.1126/science.279.5352.860)
29. Jackson JBC et al. 2001 Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems. Science 293, 629-637. (doi:10.1126/science.1059199)
30. Myers RA, Worm B. 2003 Rapid worldwide depletion of predatory fish communities. Nature 423, 280-283. (doi:10.1038/nature01610)
31. Essington TE. 2010 Trophic cascades in the open ocean. In Trophic cascades: predators, prey, and the changing dynamics of nature (eds J Terborgh, JA Estes), pp. 91-105. Washington, DC: Island Press.
32. Daskalov GM. 2002 Overfishing drives a trophic cascade in the Black Sea. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 225, 53-63. (doi:10.3354/meps225053)
33. Daskalov GM, Grishin AN, Rodionov S, Mihneva V. 2007 Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing reveal possible mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 10 518-10 523. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0701100104)
34. Mollmann C, Muller-Karulis B, Kornilovs G, St John MA. 2008 Effects of climate and overfishing on zooplankton dynamics and ecosystem structure: regime shifts, trophic cascade, and feedback loops in a simple ecosystem. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 65, 302-310. (doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsm197)
35. Casini M, Hjelm J, Molinero JC, Lovgren J, Cardinale M, Bartolino V, Belgrano A, Kornilovs G. 2009 Trophic cascades promote threshold-like shifts in pelagic marine ecosystems. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 197-202. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0806649105)
36. Casini M, Lovgren J, Hjelm J, Cardinale M, Molinero JC, Kornilovs G. 2008 Multi-level trophic cascades in a heavily exploited open marine ecosystem. Proc. R. Soc. B 275, 1793-1801. (doi:10.1098/rspb. 2007.1752)
37. Frank KT, Petrie B, Choi JS, Leggett WC. 2005 Trophic cascades in a formerly cod-dominated ecosystem. Science 308, 1621-1623. (doi:10.1126/science.1113075)
38. Frank KT, Petrie B, Fisher JAD, Leggett WC. 2011 Transient dynamics of an altered large marine ecosystem. Nature 477, U86-U98. (doi:10.1038/nature10285)
39. Choi JS, Frank KT, Leggett WC, Drinkwater K. 2004 Transition to an alternate state in a continental shelf ecosystem. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 61, 505-510. (doi:10.1139/f04-079)
40. Mollmann C, Diekmann R, Muller-Karulis B, Kornilovs G, Plikshs M, Axe P. 2009 Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. Glob. Change Biol. 15, 1377-1393. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01814.x)
41. Oguz T, Gilbert D. 2007 Abrupt transitions of the top-down controlled Black Sea pelagic ecosystem during 1960-2000: evidence for regime-shifts under strong fishery exploitation and nutrient enrichment modulated by climate-induced variations. Deep Sea Res. I Oceanogr. Res. Pap. 54, 220-242. (doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2006.09.010)
42. Greene CH. 2013 Towards a more balanced view of marine ecosystems. Fish Ocean 22, 140-142. (doi:10.1111/fog.12006).
43. Frank KT, Petrie B, Fisher JAD, Leggett WC. 2013 Setting the record straight on drivers of changing ecosystem states. Fish Ocean 22, 143-146. (doi:10.1111/fog.12007)
44. Pyper BJ, Peterman RM. 1998 Comparison of methods to account for autocorrelation in correlation analyses of fish data. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 55, 2127-2140. (doi:10.1139/f98-104)
45. Pershing AJ, Head EHJ, Greene CH, Jossi JW. 2010 Pattern and scale of variability among Northwest Atlantic Shelf plankton communities. J. Plankton Res. 32, 1675-1684. (doi:10.1093/plankt/fbq058)
46. Herbert D, Pettipas R, Petrie B. 2011 Meteorological, sea ice and physical oceanographic conditions on the Scotian Shelf and in the Gulf of Maine during 2009 and 2010.DFO Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat. Research Document.
47. Greene CH, Pershing AJ. 2007 Climate drives sea change. Science 315, 1084-1085. (doi:10.1126/science.1136495)
48. Kenny AJ, Skjoldal HR, Engelhard GH, Kershaw PJ, Reid JB. 2009 An integrated approach for assessing the relative significance of human pressures and environmental forcing on the status of large marine ecosystems. Prog. Oceanogr. 81, 132-148. (doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2009.04.007)
49. Reid PC, Borges MD, Svendsen E. 2001 A regime shift in the North Sea circa 1988 linked to changes in the North Sea fishery. Fish Res. 50, 163-171. (doi:10.1016/S0165-7836(00)00249-6)
50. Weijerman M, Lindeboom H, Zuur AF. 2005 Regime shifts in marine ecosystems of the North Sea and Wadden Sea. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 298, 21-39. (doi:10.3354/meps298021)
51. Heck KL, Valentine JF. 2007 The primacy of topdown effects in shallow benthic ecosystems. Estuaries Coasts 30, 371-381. (doi:10.1007/BF02819384)
52. Steneck RS, Sala EA. 2005 Large marine carnivores: trophic cascades and top-down controls in coastal ecosystems past and present. In Large carnivores and the conservation of biodiversity (eds J Ray, K Redford, R Steneck, J Berger), pp. 110-137. Washington, DC: Island Press.
53. Gaines S, Roughgarden J. 1985 Larval settlement rate—a leading determinant of structure in an ecological community of the marine intertidal zone. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 82, 3707-3711. (doi:10.1073/pnas.82.11.3707)
54. MERCINA. 2004 Supply-side ecology and the response of zooplankton to climate-driven changes in North Atlantic Ocean circulation. Oceanography 17, 60-71. (doi:10.5670/oceanog.2004.31)
55. Lee BS, Bullister JL, Murray JW, Sonnerup RE. 2002 Anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbons in the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara. Deep Sea Res. I Oceanogr. Res. Pap. 49, 895-913. (doi:10.1016/s0967-0637(02)00005-5)
56. Matthaus W, Schinke H. 1999 The influence of river runoff on deep water conditions of the Baltic Sea. Hydrobiologia 393, 1-10. (doi:10.1023/a:1003573328473)
57. Loder JW, Petrie B, Gawarkiewicz G. 1998 The coastal ocean off northeastern North America: a large-scale view. In The Sea (eds AR Robinson, KH Brink), pp. 105-133. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons.
58. Aksnes DL, Blindheim J. 1996 Circulation patterns in the North Atlantic and possible impact on population dynamics of Calanus finmarchicus. Ophelia 44, 7-28. (doi:10.1080/00785326.1995. 10429836)
59. Ling SD et al. 2015 Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 370, 20130269. (doi:10.1098/rstb. 2013.0269)
60. Micheli F. 1999 Eutrophication, fisheries, and consumer-resource dynamics in marine pelagic ecosystems. Science 285, 1396-1398. (doi:10.1126/science.285.5432.1396)
61. Roohi A, Zulfigar Y, Kideys AE, Hwai ATS, Khanari AG, Eker-Develi E. 2008 Impact of a new invasive ctenophore (Mnemiopsis leidyi) on the zooplankton community of the Southern Caspian Sea. Mar. Ecol. 29, 421-434. (doi:10.1111/j.1439-0485.2008. 00254.x)