Regime shifts in marine ecosystems of the North Sea and Wadden Sea

Marine Ecology Progress Series

Volumn 298, Issue , 2005, Pages 21-39

  Weijerman, Mariska ^a   Lindeboom, Han ^a   Zuur, Alain F ^b  

^a ROYAL NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE FOR SEA RESEARCH   (Netherlands)

^b Highland Statistics Ltd   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Chronological clustering; Long term data series; North Sea; Principal component analysis; Regime shift analysis; Regime shifts

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN SYSTEM; BIOINDICATOR; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; SALINITY;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; NORTH SEA; OCEANIC REGIONS; WADDEN SEA; WORLD;

EID: 24944528616     PISSN: 01718630     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/meps298021     Document Type: Article

References (86)

1. Alheit J, Hagen E (1996) The Bohuslän herring periods: are they controlled by climate variations or local phenomena? Int Counc Explor Sea Comm Meet 6:21
2. Austen MC, Buchanan JB, Hunt HG, Josefson AB, Kendall MA (1991) Comparison of long-term trends in benthic and pelagic communities of the North Sea. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 71:179-190
3. Beare DJ, McKenzie E (1999) Temporal patterns in the surface abundance of Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus in the northern North Sea (1958-1996) inferred from continuous plankton recorder data. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 190:241-251
4. Beare DJ, Batten S, Edwards M, Reid DG (2002) Prevalence of boreal Atlantic, temperate Atlantic and neritic zooplankton in the North Sea between 1958 and 1998 in relation to temperature, salinity, stratification intensity and Atlantic inflow. J Sea Res 48:29-49
5. Beaugrand G, Reid PC, Ibanez F, Lindley JA, Edwards M (2002) Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate. Science 296:1692-1694
6. Bell MA, Legendre P (1987) Multicharacter chronological clustering in a sequence of fossil sticklebacks. Syst Zool 36:52-61
7. Bergman M, Lindeboom H (1999) Natural variability and the effects of fisheries in the North Sea: towards an integrated fisheries and ecosystem management? In: Gray J (ed) Biogeochemical cycling and sediment ecology. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, p 173-184
8. Beukema J (1990) Expected effects of changes in winter temperatures on benthic animals living in soft sediments in coastal North Sea areas. In: Beukema J (ed) Expected effects of climate change on marine coastal ecosystems. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, p 83-92
9. Beukema JJ, Essink K, Dekker R (2000) Long-term observations on the dynamics of three species of polychaetes living on tidal flats of the Wadden Sea: the role of weather and predator-prey interactions. J Anim Ecol 69:31-44
10. Beukema JJ, Cadee GC, Dekker R (2002) Zoobenthic biomass limited by phytoplankton abundance: evidence from parallel changes in two long-term data-series in the Wadden Sea. J Sea Res 48:111-125
11. Boberg F, Lundstedt H (2002) Solar wind variations related to fluctuations of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 29:310-313
12. Bradley DC, Ormerod SJ (2001) Community persistence among stream invertebrates tracks the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Anim Ecol 70:987-996
13. Burroughs W (1992) Weather cycles real or imaginary? Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
14. Cadée GC, Hegeman J (1991a) Historical phytoplankton data of the Marsdiep. Hydrobiol Bull 24:111-118
15. Cadée GC, Hegeman J (1991b) Phytoplankton primary production, chlorophyll and species composition, organic carbon and turbidity in the Marsdiep in 1990, compared with foregoing years. Hydrobiol Bull 25:29-35
16. Cadée GC, Hegeman J (2002) Phytoplankton in the Marsdiep at the end of the 20th century; 30 years monitoring biomass, primary production, and Phaeocystis blooms. J Sea Res 48:97-110
17. Colijn F (1991) Changes in plankton communities: when, where and why? ICES Mar Sci Symp 195:193-212
18. Daan N (2000) De Noordzee-visfauna en criteria voor het vaststellen van doelsoorten voor het natuurbeleid. Netherlands Institute for Fisheries Research (RIVO), IJmuiden
19. Daan N, Heessen H, Pope J (1994) Changes in the North Sea cod stock during the twentieth century. ICES Mar Sci Symp 198:229-243
20. Dickson RR, Meincke J, Malberg SA, Lee V (1988) The great salinity anomaly in the northern North Atlantic 1968 to 1982. Prog Oceanogr 20:103-151
21. Dickson RR, Colebrook J, Svendsen E (1991) Recent changes in the summer plankton of the North Sea. ICES Mar Sci Symp 195:232-242
22. Dijkema KS (1997) Impact prognosis for salt marshes from subsidence by gas extraction in the Wadden Sea. J Coast Res 13:1294-1304
23. Ebbesmeyer C, Cayan D, McLain D, Nicols F, Peterson D, Redmond K (1991) 1976 step in the Pacifc climate: forty environmental changes between 1968 and 1975 and 1977 and 1984. In: Betancourt JL, Tharp VL (eds) Proceedings of the Seventh Annual Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, April 1990. Interagency Ecol Studies Prog Tech Rep No 26, California Department of Water Resources, Sacremento, CA, p 115-126
24. Edwards M, Reid P, Planque B (2001) Long-term and regional variability of phytoplankton biomass in the north-east Atlantic (1960-1995). ICES J Mar Sci 58:39-49
25. Edwards M, Beaugrand G, Reid PC, Rowden AA, Jones MB (2002) Ocean climate anomalies and the ecology of the North Sea. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 239:1-10
26. Ellett D, Blindheim J (1992) Climate and hydrographic variability in the ICES area during the 1980s. In: Dickson RR (ed) Hydrological variability in the ICES area, 1980-1989. ICES Mar Sci Symp 195:11-31
27. Fox CJ, Planque BP, Darby CD (2000) Synchrony in the recruitment time-series of plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L) around the United Kingdom and the influence of sea temperature. J Sea Res 44:159-168
28. Fransz H, Gonzalez S, Cadée G, Hansen F (1992) Long-term change of Temora longicornis (Copepoda, Calanoida) abundance in a Dutch tidal inlet (Marsdiep) in relation to eutrophication. Neth J Sea Res 30:23-32
29. Frid CLJ, Clark RA, Hall JA (1999) Long-term changes in the benthos on a heavily fished ground off the NE coast of England. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 188:13-20
30. Friischristensen E, Lassen K (1991) Length of the solar-cycle - an indicator of solar-activity closely associated with climate. Science 254:698-700
31. Fromentin JM, Ibanez F, Dauvin JC, Dewarumez JM, Elkaim B (1997) Long-term changes of four macrobenthic assemblages from 1978 to 1992. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 77:287-310
32. Furnes GK (1992a) Long-term variability of the in-out flow to the North Sea. In: Dickson RR (ed) Hydrological variability in the ICES area, 1980-1989. ICES Mar Sci Symp 195:103-109
33. Furnes GK (1992b) Climatic variations of oceanographic processes in the north European Seas - a review of the 1970s and 1980s. Cont Shelf Res 12:235-256
34. Gauch HG (1982) Multivariate analysis in community ecology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
35. Gulev SK, Hasse L (1999) Changes of wind waves in the North Atlantic over the last 30 years. Int J Climatol 19:1091-1117
36. Hare SR, Mantua NJ (2000) Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime-shifts in 1977 and 1989. Prog Oceanogr 47:103-145
37. Hare SR, Mantua NJ (in press) Comment on 'red noise and regime-shifts' by D Rudnick and RE Davis. Deep-Sea Res
38. Hastie TJ, Tibshirani RJ (1990) Generalized additive models. Chapman & Hall, London
39. HCCPR (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research) (2002) Digest of environmental statistics, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Exeter
40. Hickel W, Berg J, Treutner K (1992) Variability in phytoplankton biomass in the German Bight near Helgoland, 1980 to 1990. ICES Mar Sci Symp 195:249-259
41. IJnsen F (1988) Het karakteriseren van winters. Zenit 15:50-55
42. Jolliffe IT (2002) Principal component analyses, 2nd edn. Springer-Verlag, New York
43. Jongman RHG, Ter Braak CJF, Van Tongeren OFR (1995) Data analysis in community and landscape ecology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
44. Josefson AB, Jensen JN, Aertebjerg G (1993) The benthos community structure anomaly in the late 1970s and early 1980s - a result of a major food pulse. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 172:31-45
45. Kristjánsson J (2001) On the length of the solar cycle and the Earth's climate. Cicerone 1:1-2
46. Kröncke I, Dippner JW, Heyen H, Zeiss B (1998) Long-term changes in macrofaunal communities off Norderney (East Frisia, Germany) in relation to climate variability. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 167:25-36
47. Lean J, Beer J, Bradley R (1995) Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610 - implications for climate-change. Geophys Res Lett 22:3195-3198
48. Legendre P, Legendre L (1998) Numerical ecology, 2nd edn. Elsevier, Amsterdam
49. Legendre P, Dallot S, Legendre L (1985) Succession of species within a community: chronological clustering, with application to marine and freshwater zooplankton. Am Nat 125:257-288.
50. Lindeboom HJ (in press) Comparison of effects of fishing with effects of natural events and non-fishing anthropogenic impacts on benthic habitats. In: Barnes PW, Thomas JP (eds) Benthic habitats and the effects of fishing. American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, MD
51. Lindeboom H, Raaphorst Wv, Beukema J, Cadée G, Swennen C (1995) (Sudden) Changes in the North Sea and Wadden Sea: oceanic influences underestimated? Dtsch Hydrogr Z 2:86-100
52. Lindley JA, Batten SD (2002) Long-term variability in the diversity of North Sea zooplankton. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 82:31-40
53. Lindley JA, Gamble JC, Hunt HG (1995) A change in the zooplankton of the central North Sea (55 to 58° N) - a possible consequence of changes in the benthos. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 119:299-303
54. Loewe P, Becker G (2003) North Sea SST since 1968: some gross statistics contribution to 2003 report of the ICES Working Group on Oceanic Hydrography (WGOH). Bundesamt für Seeschiff fahrt und Hydrographie, Hamburg
55. McCune B, Grace JB (2002) Analysis of ecological communities. MjM Software, Gleneden Beach, OR
56. Mironova I, Pudovkin M (2002) Solar activity as a controlling factor of sunshine intensity at low altitudes. Int J Geomagnetism Aeronomy 3:87-90
57. Mork KA, Blindheim J (2000) Variations in the Atlantic inflow to the Nordic Seas, 1955 to 1996. Deep-Sea Res 47:1035-1057
58. Nesme-Ribes E, Baliunas S, Skoloff D (1996) The stellar dynamo: sunspot cycles - on other stars - are helping astronomers study the sun's variations and the ways they might affect the earth. Sci Am Aug:30-36
59. Neudecker T, Damm U (1996) Abundance indices of brown shrimp (Crangon crangon L) at the west coast of Schleswig-Holstein, North Sea. Int Counc Explor Sea Shellfish Comm 1996/K 8:18
60. Nierman U (1996) Fluctuations and mass occurrence of Phoronis mülleri (Phoronidea) in the south-eastern North Sea during 1983 to1988. Senckenb Marit 28:53-63
61. OJaveer H (1996) Changes in the fish community of the Gulf of Riga during the last two decades. Int Counc Explor Sea Comm Meet Baltic Fish Comm 1996/J 16:13
62. Ottersen G, Planque B, Belgrano A, Post E, Reid PC, Stenseth NC (2001) Ecological effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Oecologia 128:1-14
63. Otto L, Zimmerman JTF, Furnes GK, Mork M, Saetre R, Becker G (1990) Review of the physical oceanography of the North Sea. Neth J Sea Res 26:161-238
64. Pap J, Frohlich C, Kuhn J, Sofia S, Ulrich R (2002) A discussion of recent evidence for solar irradiance variability and climate. Adv Space Res 29:1417-1426
65. Philippart CJM, Lindeboom HJ, van der Meer J, van de Veer HW, Witte JI (1996) Long-term fluctuations of fish recruit abundance in the western Wadden Sea in relation to variation in the marine environment. ICES J Mar Sci 53:1120-1129
66. Philippart C, Andersin A, Laine A, Lindeboom H, Piet G, Rijnsdorp A, van Storch H, Zorita E (2000) Variability within marine ecosystems of northwestern Europe. Final report EC-DGXIV research contract FAIR\95\710. Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Den Burg, Texel
67. Pierce GJ, Boyle PR (2003) Empirical modelling of interannual trends in abundance of squid (Loligo forbesi) in Scottish waters. Fish Res 59:305-326
68. Pinnegar JK, Jennings S, O'Brien CM, Polunin NVC (2002) Long-term changes in the trophic level of the Celtic Sea fish community and fish market price distribution. J Appl Ecol 39:377-390
69. Reid PC, Edwards M, Hunt HG, Warner AJ (1998) Phytoplankton change in the North Atlantic. Nature 391:546-546
70. Reid PC, Borges MD, Svendsen E (2001a) A regime-shift in the North Sea circa 1988 linked to changes in the North Sea horse mackerel fishery. Fish Res 50:163-171
71. Reid PC, Holliday NP, Smyth TJ (2001b) Pulses in the eastern margin current and warmer water off the northwestern European shelf linked to North Sea ecosystem changes. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 215:283-287
72. Reijnders PJH (1981) Management and conservation of the harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population in the international Wadden Sea area. Biol Conserv 19:213-221
73. Reijnders PJH, Brasseur S (2003) Veränderungen in Vorkommen und Status der Bestände von Seehunden und Kegelrobben in der Nordsee - mit Anmerkungen zum Robbensterben 2002. In: Lozán L, Rachor E, Reise K, Sündermann J, von Westernhagen H (eds) Warnsignale aus der Nordsee und Wattenmeer - eine aktuelle Umweltbilanz. Wissenschaftliche Auswertungen, Hamburg, p 330-339
74. Reijnders PJH, Ries EH, Tougaard S, Norgaard N, Heidemann G, Schwarz J, Vareschi E, Traut IM (1997) Population development of harbour seals Phoca vitulina in the Wadden Sea after the 1988 virus epizootic. J Sea Res 38:161-168
75. Rind D (2002) Climatology - the sun's role in climate variations. Science 296:673-677
76. Rogers J (1984) The association between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation in the northern hemisphere. Mon Weather Rev, Am Meteorol Soc 112:1999-2015
77. Rudnick DL, Davis RE (2003) Red noise and regime-shifts. Deep-Sea Res I 50:691-699
78. Scheffer M, Carpenter S, Foley JA, Folke C, Walker B (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413:591-596
79. Siegismund F, Schrum C (2001) Decadal changes in the wind forcing over the North Sea. Clim Res 18:39-45
80. Sims DW, Genner MJ, Southward AJ, Hawkins SJ (2001) Timing of squid migration reflects North Atlantic climate variability. Proc R Soc Lond Ser B 268:2607-2611
81. Solanki SK (2002) Solar variability and climate change: is there a link? Astron Geophys 43:9-13
82. Southward AJ, Hawkins SJ, Burrows MT (1995) 70 years observations of changes in distribution and abundance of zooplankton and intertidal organisms in the western English channel in relation to rising sea temperature. J Therm Biol 20:127-155
83. Sunspot Index Data Centre (SIDC) (2003) World data centre for the sunspot index. Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels
84. Svendsen E, Magnusson A (1992) Climatic variability in the North Sea. In: Dickson RR (ed) Hydrological variability in the ICES area, 1980-1989. ICES Mar Sci Symp 195:144-158
85. Swennen C (1991) Fledgling production of eiders Somateria mollisima in the Netherlands. J Ornithol 132:427-437
86. Zheng X, Pierce GJ, Reid DG, Jolliffe IT (2002) Does the North Atlantic current affect spatial distribution of whiting? Testing environmental hypotheses using statistical and GIS techniques. ICES J Mar Sci 59:239-253