Modeling and predicting the growth and death of membership-based websites

WWW 2014 - Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on World Wide Web

Volumn , Issue , 2014, Pages 653-663

  Ribeiro, Bruno ^a  

^a Carnegie Mellon University ^*  (United States)

Author keywords

DAU; Non equilibrium statistical physics; Online social dynamics

Indexed keywords

STATISTICAL PHYSICS; WEBSITES;

MEDIA CAMPAIGNS; NON EQUILIBRIUM; ON-LINE SOCIAL NETWORKS; REACTION DIFFUSION; SELF-SUSTAINABLE; SOCIAL DYNAMICS; WEBSITE POPULARITY; WORD OF MOUTH;

SOCIAL NETWORKING (ONLINE);

EID: 84909620002     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.1145/2566486.2567984     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (62)

1. Alexa.com. http://www.alexa.com/help/traffic-learn-more.
2. W. B. Arthur. Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy. U. Michigan Press, 1994.
3. Lars Backstrom, Eytan Bakshy, Jon M Kleinberg, Thomas M Lento, and Itamar Rosenn. Center of attention: How facebook users allocate attention across friends. ICWSM, 2011.
4. Lars Backstrom, Dan Huttenlocher, Jon Kleinberg, and Xiangyang Lan. Group formation in large social networks: membership, growth, and evolution. In SIGKDD, pages 44-54, 2006.
5. Venkatesh Bala and Sanjeev Goyal. A Noncooperative Model of Network Formation. Econometrica, 68(5):1181-1229, September 2000.
6. Frank Bass. Comments on "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables The Bass Model ". Management science, 50(12 supplement):1833-1840, 2004.
7. Danah Boyd. White flight in networked publics? how race and class shaped american teen engagement with myspace and facebook. In Lisa Nakamura, Peter Chow-White, and Alondra Nelson, editors, Race After the Internet, pages 203-222. Routledge, 2011.
8. Tadeusz Caliński and Jerzy Harabasz. A dendrite method for cluster analysis. Communications in Statistics-theory and Methods, 3(1):1-27, 1974.
9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette. Quis pendit ipsa pretia: Facebook valuation and diagnostic of a bubble based on nonlinear demographic dynamics. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 38(2):56-66, 2012.
10. Damon Centola. The spread of behavior in an online social network experiment. Science, 329(5996):1194-1197, 2010.
11. Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler. The Spread of Obesity in a Large Social Network over 32 Years. New England Journal of Medicine, 357(4):370-379, July 2007.
12. Vittoria Colizza, Romualdo Pastor-Satorras, and Alessandro Vespignani. Reaction-diffusion processes and metapopulation models in heterogeneous networks. Nature Physics, 3(4):276-282, March 2007.
13. Vittoria Colizza and Alessandro Vespignani. Epidemic modeling in metapopulation systems with heterogeneous coupling pattern: Theory and simulations. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 251(3):450-467, April 2008.
14. R Crane and D Sornette. Robust dynamic classes revealed by measuring the response function of a social system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(41):15649-15653, October 2008.
15. Crunchbase. http://www.crunchbase.com.
16. Z. Dezsö, E. Almaas, A. Lukács, B. Rácz, I. Szakadát, and A. L. Barabasi. Dynamics of information access on the web. Physical Review E, 73(6):066132, June 2006.
17. Joseph Farrell and Paul Klemperer. Coordination and lock-in: Competition with switching costs and network effects. Handbook of industrial organization, 3:1967-2072, 2007.
18. John C. Fisher and Robert H. Pry. A simple substitution model of technological change. Technological forecasting and social change, 3:75-88, 1972.
19. Daniel Friedman. Evolutionary Games in Economics. Econometrica, 59(3):637-666, January 1991.
20. David Garcia, Pavlin Mavrodiev, and Frank Schweitzer. Social Resilience in Online Communities: The Autopsy of Friendster. In Proc. of COSN, pages 39-50, 2013.
21. Paul Geroski. Models of technology diffusion. Research policy, 29(4):603-625, 2000.
22. Oana Goga, Daniele Perito, Howard Lei, Renata Teixeira, and Robin Sommer. Large-scale Correlation of Accounts Across Social Networks. Technical report, 2013.
23. Mark Granovetter. Threshold models of collective behavior. American journal of sociology, pages 1420-1443, 1978.
24. Richard H. Smith Historian and Political Consultant Richard H. Smith. Why does Google News ignore The Huffington Post?http://goo.gl/rom0mg.
25. Facebook Inc. Facebook second quarter 2013 results: http://investor.fb.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=780093.
26. Matthew O. Jackson. A survey of network formation models: stability and efficiency. Group formation in economics: networks, clubs and coalitions. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pages 11-57, 2005.
27. Anick Jesdanun. MySpace popularity with teens fizzles, MSNBC News, Nov. 2007.
28. Emily Jin, Michelle Girvan, and M Newman. Structure of growing social networks. Physical Review E, 64(4):046132, September 2001.
29. Sanjay Ram Kairam, Dan J Wang, and Jure Leskovec. The life and death of online groups: Predicting group growth and longevity. In WSDM, pages 673-682, 2012.
30. E. L. Kaplan and Paul Meier. Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53(282):457-481, June 1958.
31. Michael Katz and Carl Shapiro. Network externalities, competition, and compatibility. The American economic review, 75(3):424-440, 1985.
32. Ravi Kumar, Jasmine Novak, and Andrew Tomkins. Structure and Evolution of Online Social Networks. In link.springer.com, pages 337-357. Springer New York, New York, NY, August 2010.
33. David Lazer, Alex Sandy Pentland, Lada Adamic, Sinan Aral, Albert Laszlo Barabasi, Devon Brewer, Nicholas Christakis, Noshir Contractor, James Fowler, Myron Gutmann, Tony Jebara, Gary King, Michael Macy, Deb Roy, and Marshall Van Alstyne. Life in the network: the coming age of computational social science. Science, 323(5915):721, 2009.
34. Jure Leskovec, Lars Backstrom, Ravi Kumar, and Andrew Tomkins. Microscopic evolution of social networks. In SIGKDD, pages 462-470, 2008.
35. Jure Leskovec, Jon Kleinberg, and Christos Faloutsos. Graph evolution: Densification and shrinking diameters. TKDD, 1(1):2, 2007.
36. Kenneth Levenberg. A method for the solution of certain non-linear problems in least squares. Quarterly Journal of Applied Mathmatics, II(2):164-168, 1944.
37. Stan J Liebowitz and Stephen E Margolis. Network externality: An uncommon tragedy. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(2):133-150, 1994.
38. Edwin Mansfield. Technical change and the rate of imitation. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, pages 741-766, 1961.
39. Edwin Mansfield. Intrafirm Rates of Diffusion of an Innovation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 45(4):348-359, January 1963.
40. M. Marsili. The rise and fall of a networked society: A formal model. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101(6):1439-1442, January 2004.
41. A. Montanari and A. Saberi. The spread of innovations in social networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(47):20196-20201, November 2010.
42. James Dickson Murray. Mathematical biology, volume 2. springer, 2002.
43. Bruno Ribeiro. Modeling the relationship between social network activity, inactivity, and growth. arXiv:1307.1354v2.
44. Bruno Ribeiro, William Gauvin, Benyuan Liu, and Don Towsley. On myspace account spans and double pareto-like distribution of friends. In INFOCOM NetSciCom, pages 1-6, 2010.
45. M. Rogers Everett. Diffusion of innovations. Free Press, 5th edition, 2003.
46. Thomas C. Schelling. Micromotives and macrobehavior. WW Norton & Company, 2006.
47. US SEC. Sec filing for fundrasing of theblaze.com:http://goo.gl/umgyuA.
48. Herbert A. Simon. Designing Organizations for an Information-Rich World. In Martin Greenberger, editor, Computers, communications, and the public interest, pages 37-72. Johns Hopkins University Press, 1971.
49. Brian Skyrms and Robin Pemantle. A Dynamic Model of Social Network Formation. In scholar.google.com, pages 231-251. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, July 2009.
50. Jennifer Slegg. jennifer-slegg Patch.com, Huffington Post dominate Google News results:http://goo.gl/SK3GH.
51. Tom A B Snijders. Stochastic actorâAŘoriented models for network change. The Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 21(1-2):149-172, April 1996.
52. David Strang and Sarah A Soule. Diffusion in organizations and social movements: From hybrid corn to poison pills. Annual review of sociology, pages 265-290, 1998.
53. Gabor Szabo and Bernardo A Huberman. Predicting the popularity of online content. Communications of the ACM, 53(8):80, August 2010.
54. TechCrunch Deadpool. http://techcrunch.com/tag/deadpool/.
55. Mojtaba Torkjazi, Reza Rejaie, and Walter Willinger. Hot today, gone tomorrow. In WOSN, page 43, New York, New York, USA, 2009. ACM Press.
56. Johan Ugander, Lars Backstrom, Cameron Marlow, and Jon Kleinberg. Structural diversity in social contagion. PNAS, 109(16):5962-5966, 2012.
57. N. G. van Kampen. Stochastic processes in physics and chemistry. North-Holland, 1, 1981.
58. F. van Wijland, K. Oerding, and H. J. Hilhorst. Wilson renormalization of a reaction-diffusion process. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 251(1-2):179-201, March 1998.
59. Wikimedia Foundation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\-of\-social\-networking\-websites.
60. F Wu and B A Huberman. Novelty and collective attention. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(45):17599-17601, October 2007.
61. H. Young. The dynamics of social innovation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(4):21285-21291, December 2011.
62. Xiaohan Zhao, Alessandra Sala, Christo Wilson, Xiao Wang, Sabrina Gaito, Haitao Zheng, and Ben Y Zhao. Multi-scale dynamics in a massive online social network. In IMC, pages 171-184, 2012.