메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 8, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 1612-1639

Power-law models for infectious disease spread

Author keywords

Branching process with immigration; Infectious disease surveillance; Multivariate time series of counts; Power law; Spatial interaction function; Spatio temporal point process; Stochastic epidemic modelling

Indexed keywords


EID: 84908274181     PISSN: 19326157     EISSN: 19417330     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1214/14-AOAS743     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (139)

References (73)
  • 1
    • 0036013593 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical mechanics of complex networks
    • MR1895096
    • ALBERT, R. and BARABÁSI, A.-L. (2002). Statistical mechanics of complex networks. Rev. Modern Phys. 74 47-97. MR1895096
    • (2002) Rev. Modern Phys , vol.74 , pp. 47-97
    • Albert, R.1    BarabÁsi, A.-L.2
  • 2
    • 0003188315 scopus 로고
    • Measles periodicity and community size
    • BARTLETT, M. S. (1957). Measles periodicity and community size. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. A 120 48-70.
    • (1957) J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. A , vol.120 , pp. 48-70
    • Bartlett, M.S.1
  • 4
    • 84890083357 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The hidden geometry of complex, network-driven contagion phenomena
    • BROCKMANN, D. and HELBING, D. (2013). The hidden geometry of complex, network-driven contagion phenomena. Science 342 1337-1342.
    • (2013) Science , vol.342 , pp. 1337-1342
    • Brockmann, D.1    Helbing, D.2
  • 5
    • 31444431866 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The scaling laws of human travel
    • BROCKMANN, D., HUFNAGEL, L. and GEISEL, T. (2006). The scaling laws of human travel. Nature 439 462-465.
    • (2006) Nature , vol.439 , pp. 462-465
    • Brockmann, D.1    Hufnagel, L.2    Geisel, T.3
  • 6
    • 84979407579 scopus 로고
    • The delimitation of functional regions, nodal regions, and hierarchies by functional distance approaches
    • BROWN, L. A. and HOLMES, J. (1971). The delimitation of functional regions, nodal regions, and hierarchies by functional distance approaches. J. Reg. Sci. 11 57-72.
    • (1971) J. Reg. Sci , vol.11 , pp. 57-72
    • Brown, L.A.1    Holmes, J.2
  • 7
    • 84989571823 scopus 로고
    • Functional distance: An operational approach
    • BROWN, L. A. and HORTON, F. E. (1970). Functional distance: An operational approach. Geogr. Anal. 2 76-83.
    • (1970) Geogr. Anal , vol.2 , pp. 76-83
    • Brown, L.A.1    Horton, F.E.2
  • 9
    • 77951637863 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmission parameters of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain
    • CHIS STER, I. and FERGUSON, N. M. (2007). Transmission parameters of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. PLoS ONE 2 e502.
    • (2007) PLoS ONE , vol.2 , pp. e502
    • Chis Ster, I.1    Ferguson, N.M.2
  • 11
    • 70450231574 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive model assessment for count data
    • MR2756513
    • CZADO, C., GNEITING, T. and HELD, L. (2009). Predictive model assessment for count data. Biometrics 65 1254-1261. MR2756513
    • (2009) Biometrics , vol.65 , pp. 1254-1261
    • Czado, C.1    Gneiting, T.2    Held, L.3
  • 12
    • 0033243856 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coherent dispersion criteria for optimal experimental design
    • MR1701101
    • DAWID, A. P. and SEBASTIANI, P. (1999). Coherent dispersion criteria for optimal experimental design. Ann. Statist. 27 65-81. MR1701101
    • (1999) Ann. Statist , vol.27 , pp. 65-81
    • Dawid, A.P.1    Sebastiani, P.2
  • 14
    • 33746415216 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatio-temporal point processes, partial likelihood, foot and mouth disease
    • MR2242245
    • DIGGLE, P. J. (2006). Spatio-temporal point processes, partial likelihood, foot and mouth disease. Stat. Methods Med. Res. 15 325-336. MR2242245
    • (2006) Stat. Methods Med. Res , vol.15 , pp. 325-336
    • Diggle, P.J.1
  • 15
    • 77949517635 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatio-temporal point processes: Methods and applications
    • B. Finkenstädt, L. Held and V. Isham, eds.), Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, FL
    • DIGGLE, P. J. (2007). Spatio-temporal point processes: Methods and applications. In Statistical Methods for Spatio-Temporal Systems (B. Finkenstädt, L. Held and V. Isham, eds.) 1-45. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, FL.
    • (2007) Statistical Methods for Spatio-Temporal Systems , pp. 1-45
    • Diggle, P.J.1
  • 16
    • 77953007275 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Partial-likelihood analysis of spatio-temporal point-process data
    • MR2758814
    • DIGGLE, P. J., KAIMI, I. and ABELLANA, R. (2010). Partial-likelihood analysis of spatio-temporal point-process data. Biometrics 66 347-354. MR2758814
    • (2010) Biometrics , vol.66 , pp. 347-354
    • Diggle, P.J.1    Kaimi, I.2    Abellana, R.3
  • 21
    • 0039471962 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A statistical algorithm for the early detection of outbreaks of infectious disease
    • MR1413665
    • FARRINGTON, C. P., ANDREWS, N. J., BEALE, A. D. and CATCHPOLE, M. A. (1996). A statistical algorithm for the early detection of outbreaks of infectious disease. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. A 159 547-563. MR1413665
    • (1996) J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. A , vol.159 , pp. 547-563
    • Farrington, C.P.1    Andrews, N.J.2    Beale, A.D.3    Catchpole, M.A.4
  • 22
    • 77956633626 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effects of weather and climate on the seasonality of influenza: What we know and what we need to know
    • FUHRMANN, C. (2010). The effects of weather and climate on the seasonality of influenza: What we know and what we need to know. Geography Compass 4 718-730.
    • (2010) Geography Compass , vol.4 , pp. 718-730
    • Fuhrmann, C.1
  • 23
    • 84898409411 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Power law approximations of movement network data for modeling infectious disease spread
    • GEILHUFE, M., HELD, L., SKRØVSETH, S. O., SIMONSEN, G. S. and GODTLIEBSEN, F. (2014). Power law approximations of movement network data for modeling infectious disease spread. Biom. J. 56 363-382.
    • (2014) Biom. J , vol.56 , pp. 363-382
    • Geilhufe, M.1    Held, L.2    SkrØvseth, S.O.3    Simonsen, G.S.4    Godtliebsen, F.5
  • 24
    • 0039377949 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for fitting spatiotemporal stochastic models in plant epidemiology
    • GIBSON, G. J. (1997). Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for fitting spatiotemporal stochastic models in plant epidemiology. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C. Appl. Stat. 46 215-233.
    • (1997) J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C. Appl. Stat , vol.46 , pp. 215-233
    • Gibson, G.J.1
  • 26
    • 33947274775 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation
    • MR2345548
    • GNEITING, T. and RAFTERY, A. E. (2007). Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 359-378. MR2345548
    • (2007) J. Amer. Statist. Assoc , vol.102 , pp. 359-378
    • Gneiting, T.1    Raftery, A.E.2
  • 27
    • 3142710385 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic models that separate fractal dimension and the Hurst effect
    • (electronic), MR2114455
    • GNEITING, T. and SCHLATHER, M. (2004). Stochastic models that separate fractal dimension and the Hurst effect. SIAM Rev. 46 269-282 (electronic). MR2114455
    • (2004) SIAM Rev , vol.46 , pp. 269-282
    • Gneiting, T.1    Schlather, M.2
  • 29
    • 0002920214 scopus 로고
    • Spectra of some self-exciting and mutually exciting point processes
    • MR0278410
    • HAWKES, A. G. (1971). Spectra of some self-exciting and mutually exciting point processes. Biometrika 58 83-90. MR0278410
    • (1971) Biometrika , vol.58 , pp. 83-90
    • Hawkes, A.G.1
  • 30
    • 26844521515 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A statistical framework for the analysis of multivariate infectious disease surveillance counts
    • MR2210732
    • HELD, L., HÖHLE, M. and HOFMANN, M. (2005). A statistical framework for the analysis of multivariate infectious disease surveillance counts. Stat. Model. 5 187-199. MR2210732
    • (2005) Stat. Model , vol.5 , pp. 187-199
    • Held, L.1    HÖhle, M.2    Hofmann, M.3
  • 31
    • 84867946901 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling seasonality in space-time infectious disease surveillance data
    • MR2993630
    • HELD, L. and PAUL, M. (2012). Modeling seasonality in space-time infectious disease surveillance data. Biom. J. 54 824-843. MR2993630
    • (2012) Biom. J , vol.54 , pp. 824-843
    • Held, L.1    Paul, M.2
  • 32
    • 33745464275 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A two-component model for counts of infectious diseases
    • HELD, L., HOFMANN, M., HÖHLE, M. and SCHMID, V. (2006). A two-component model for counts of infectious diseases. Biostatistics 7 422-437.
    • (2006) Biostatistics , vol.7 , pp. 422-437
    • Held, L.1    Hofmann, M.2    HÖhle, M.3    Schmid, V.4
  • 33
    • 79955683819 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage explains the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in German surveillance data
    • HERZOG, S. A., PAUL, M. and HELD, L. (2011). Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage explains the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in German surveillance data. Epidemiol. Infect. 139 505-515.
    • (2011) Epidemiol. Infect , vol.139 , pp. 505-515
    • Herzog, S.A.1    Paul, M.2    Held, L.3
  • 34
    • 77749320183 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Additive-multiplicative regression models for spatio-temporal epidemics
    • MR2744450
    • HÖHLE, M. (2009). Additive-multiplicative regression models for spatio-temporal epidemics. Biom. J. 51 961-978. MR2744450
    • (2009) Biom. J , vol.51 , pp. 961-978
    • HÖhle, M.1
  • 35
    • 84976381231 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Surveillance: Temporal and spatio-temporal modeling and monitoring of epidemic phenomena
    • HÖHLE, M., MEYER, S. and PAUL, M. (2014). Surveillance: Temporal and spatio-temporal modeling and monitoring of epidemic phenomena. R package version 1.8-0.
    • (2014) R package version , vol.1 , pp. 8
    • HÖhle, M.1    Meyer, S.2    Paul, M.3
  • 36
    • 42749087852 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Count data regression charts for the monitoring of surveillance time series
    • MR2432467
    • HÖHLE, M. and PAUL, M. (2008). Count data regression charts for the monitoring of surveillance time series. Comput. Statist. Data Anal. 52 4357-4368. MR2432467
    • (2008) Comput. Statist. Data Anal , vol.52 , pp. 4357-4368
    • HÖhle, M.1    Paul, M.2
  • 37
    • 67651004311 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical approaches to the monitoring and surveillance of infectious diseases for veterinary public health
    • HÖHLE, M., PAUL, M. and HELD, L. (2009). Statistical approaches to the monitoring and surveillance of infectious diseases for veterinary public health. Prev. Vet. Med. 91 2-10.
    • (2009) Prev. Vet. Med , vol.91 , pp. 2-10
    • HÖhle, M.1    Paul, M.2    Held, L.3
  • 38
    • 84862897077 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Web queries as a source for syndromic surveillance
    • HULTH, A., RYDEVIK, G. and LINDE, A. (2009). Web queries as a source for syndromic surveillance. PLoS ONE 4 e4378.
    • (2009) PLoS ONE , vol.4 , pp. e4378
    • Hulth, A.1    Rydevik, G.2    Linde, A.3
  • 39
    • 34249666616 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Syndromic surveillance based on emergency department activity and crude mortality: Two examples
    • JOSSERAN, L., NICOLAU, J., CAILLÈRE, N., ASTAGNEAU, P. and BRÜCKER, G. (2006). Syndromic surveillance based on emergency department activity and crude mortality: Two examples. Eurosurveillance 11 225-229.
    • (2006) Eurosurveillance , vol.11 , pp. 225-229
    • Josseran, L.1    Nicolau, J.2    CaillÈre, N.3    Astagneau, P.4    BrÜcker, G.5
  • 40
    • 0036168704 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating spatial coupling in epidemiological systems: A mechanistic approach
    • KEELING, M. J. and ROHANI, P. (2002). Estimating spatial coupling in epidemiological systems: A mechanistic approach. Ecol. Lett. 5 20-29.
    • (2002) Ecol. Lett , vol.5 , pp. 20-29
    • Keeling, M.J.1    Rohani, P.2
  • 43
    • 0034055870 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Approaches to the space-time modelling of infectious disease behaviour
    • LAWSON, A. B. and LEIMICH, P. (2000). Approaches to the space-time modelling of infectious disease behaviour. IMA J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. 17 1-13.
    • (2000) IMA J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol , vol.17 , pp. 1-13
    • Lawson, A.B.1    Leimich, P.2
  • 45
    • 79955951073 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Geographic profiling as a novel spatial tool for targeting infectious disease control
    • LE COMBER, S., ROSSMO, D. K., HASSAN, A., FULLER, D. and BEIER, J. (2011). Geographic profiling as a novel spatial tool for targeting infectious disease control. Int. J. Health Geogr. 10 35.
    • (2011) Int. J. Health Geogr , vol.10 , pp. 35
    • Le Comber, S.1    Rossmo, D.K.2    Hassan, A.3    Fuller, D.4    Beier, J.5
  • 47
    • 0000058972 scopus 로고
    • Business failures: Another example of the analysis of failure data
    • LOMAX, K. S. (1954). Business failures: Another example of the analysis of failure data. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 49 847-852.
    • (1954) J. Amer. Statist. Assoc , vol.49 , pp. 847-852
    • Lomax, K.S.1
  • 49
    • 84862897679 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A space-time conditional intensity model for invasive meningococcal disease occurrence
    • MR2959628
    • MEYER, S., ELIAS, J. and HÖHLE, M. (2012). A space-time conditional intensity model for invasive meningococcal disease occurrence. Biometrics 68 607-616. MR2959628
    • (2012) Biometrics , vol.68 , pp. 607-616
    • Meyer, S.1    Elias, J.2    HÖhle, M.3
  • 51
    • 84963969235 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatio-temporal analysis of epidemic phenomena using the R package surveillance
    • To appear
    • MEYER, S., HELD, L. and HÖHLE, M. (2014). Spatio-temporal analysis of epidemic phenomena using the R package surveillance. J. Stat. Softw. To appear.
    • (2014) J. Stat. Softw
    • Meyer, S.1    Held, L.2    HÖhle, M.3
  • 53
    • 24744469980 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Power laws, Pareto distributions and Zipf’s law
    • NEWMAN, M. E. J. (2005). Power laws, Pareto distributions and Zipf’s law. Contemp. Phys. 46 323-351.
    • (2005) Contemp. Phys , vol.46 , pp. 323-351
    • Newman, M.E.J.1
  • 54
    • 84874982440 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An improved algorithm for outbreak detection in multiple surveillance systems
    • MR3045892
    • NOUFAILY, A., ENKI, D. G., FARRINGTON, P., GARTHWAITE, P., ANDREWS, N. and CHARLETT, A. (2013). An improved algorithm for outbreak detection in multiple surveillance systems. Stat. Med. 32 1206-1222. MR3045892
    • (2013) Stat. Med , vol.32 , pp. 1206-1222
    • Noufaily, A.1    Enki, D.G.2    Farrington, P.3    Garthwaite, P.4    Andrews, N.5    Charlett, A.6
  • 55
    • 0001663614 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences
    • OGATA, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences. Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 50 379-402.
    • (1998) Ann. Inst. Statist. Math , vol.50 , pp. 379-402
    • Ogata, Y.1
  • 57
    • 79954579582 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive assessment of a non-linear random effects model for multivariate time series of infectious disease counts
    • MR2767846
    • PAUL, M. and HELD, L. (2011). Predictive assessment of a non-linear random effects model for multivariate time series of infectious disease counts. Stat. Med. 30 1118-1136. MR2767846
    • (2011) Stat. Med , vol.30 , pp. 1118-1136
    • Paul, M.1    Held, L.2
  • 58
    • 67650366829 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multivariate modelling of infectious disease surveillance data
    • MR2522320
    • PAUL, M., HELD, L. and TOSCHKE, A. M. (2008). Multivariate modelling of infectious disease surveillance data. Stat. Med. 27 6250-6267. MR2522320
    • (2008) Stat. Med , vol.27 , pp. 6250-6267
    • Paul, M.1    Held, L.2    Toschke, A.M.3
  • 60
    • 84863304598 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R CORE TEAM, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria
    • R CORE TEAM (2013). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
    • (2013) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing
  • 62
    • 77952706283 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ROBERT KOCH INSTITUTE , Available at, Queried on March 6, 2009
    • ROBERT KOCH INSTITUTE (2009). SurvStat@RKI. Available at http://www3.rki.de/SurvStat. Queried on March 6, 2009.
    • (2009) SurvStat@RKI
  • 64
    • 84866766368 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the impact of a movement network on the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases
    • MR3055178
    • SCHRÖDLE, B., HELD, L. and RUE, H. (2012). Assessing the impact of a movement network on the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases. Biometrics 68 736-744. MR3055178
    • (2012) Biometrics , vol.68 , pp. 736-744
    • SchrÖdle, B.1    Held, L.2    Rue, H.3
  • 65
    • 34250896791 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Product Gauss cubature over polygons based on Green’s integration formula
    • MR2334049
    • SOMMARIVA, A. and VIANELLO, M. (2007). Product Gauss cubature over polygons based on Green’s integration formula. BIT 47 441-453. MR2334049
    • (2007) BIT , vol.47 , pp. 441-453
    • Sommariva, A.1    Vianello, M.2
  • 66
    • 43449093473 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling the spread in space and time of an airborne plant disease
    • MR2440008
    • SOUBEYRAND, S., HELD, L., HÖHLE, M. and SACHE, I. (2008). Modelling the spread in space and time of an airborne plant disease. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C. Appl. Stat. 57 253-272. MR2440008
    • (2008) J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C. Appl. Stat , vol.57 , pp. 253-272
    • Soubeyrand, S.1    Held, L.2    HÖhle, M.3    Sache, I.4
  • 67
    • 0000565591 scopus 로고
    • A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region
    • TOBLER, W. R. (1970). A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Econ. Geogr. 46 234-240.
    • (1970) Econ. Geogr , vol.46 , pp. 234-240
    • Tobler, W.R.1
  • 71
    • 84869125782 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A nice day for an infection? Weather conditions and social contact patterns relevant to influenza transmission
    • WILLEM, L., KERCKHOVE, K. V., CHAO, D. L., HENS, N. and BEUTELS, P. (2012). A nice day for an infection? Weather conditions and social contact patterns relevant to influenza transmission. PLoS ONE 7 e48695.
    • (2012) PLoS ONE , vol.7 , pp. e48695
    • Willem, L.1    Kerckhove, K.V.2    Chao, D.L.3    Hens, N.4    Beutels, P.5
  • 72
    • 84876725093 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An R package for creating animations and demonstrating statistical methods
    • animation
    • XIE, Y. (2013). animation: An R package for creating animations and demonstrating statistical methods. J. Stat. Softw. 53 1-27.
    • (2013) J. Stat. Softw , vol.53 , pp. 1-27
    • Xie, Y.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.