Causal relationships versus emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency

Biogeosciences

Volumn 11, Issue 18, 2014, Pages 5087-5101

  Bistinas, I ^a   Harrison, S P ^b,c   Prentice, I C ^c,d   Pereira, J M C ^a  

^a INSTITUTO SUPERIOR DE AGRONOMIA   (Portugal)

^b UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^c MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^d IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BIOMASS BURNING; DATABASE; FIRE BEHAVIOR; GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATION; GLOBAL CLIMATE; GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT; LIGHTNING; NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION; POPULATION DENSITY; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SEASONALITY;

EID: 84907403301     PISSN: 17264170     EISSN: 17264189     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/bg-11-5087-2014     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Aldersley, A., Murray, S. J., and Cornell, S. E.: Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire, Sci. Total Environ., 409:3472-81, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.032, 2011.
2. Alexander, M. E., Stocks, B. J., and Lawson, B. D.: The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, Initial Attack 1996 (Spring): 6-9, 1996.
3. Amatulli, G., Camia, A., and San-Miguel-Ayanz, J.: Estimating future burned areas under changing climate in the EU-Mediterranean countries, Sci. Total Environ., 450-451, 209-22. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.02.014, 2013.
4. Archibald, S., Roy, D. P., van Wilgen, B., and Scholes, R. J.: What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa, Glob. Chang Biol., 15, 613-630, 2009.
5. Archibald, S., Lehmann, C. E. R. L., Gomez-Dans, J. L., and Bradstock, R. S.: Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes, PNAS, 110, 6442-6447, 2013.
6. Arneth, A., Harrison, S. P., Zaehle, S., Tsigaridis, K., Menon, S., Bartlein, P. J., Feichter, H., Korhola, A., Kulmala, M., O'Donnell, D., Schurgers, G., Sorvari, S., Vesala, T., and Zaehle, S.: Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system, Nat. Geosci., 3, 525-532. doi:10.1038/ngeo905, 2010.
7. Balzter, H., Gerard, F., Weedon, G., Grey, W., Combal, B., Bartholome, E., Bartalev, S., and Los, S: Coupling of vegetation growing season anomalies with hemispheric and regional scale climate patterns in Central and East Siberia, J. Climate, 20, 3713-3729, 2007.
8. Bartlein, P., Hostetler, S. W., Shafer, S. L., Holman, J. O., and Solomon, A. M.: Temporal and spatial structure in a daily wild-fire start dataset from the western United States (1986-96), Int J Wildland Fire, 17, 8-17, 2008.
9. Bistinas, I., Oom, D., Sá, A. C. L., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., and Pereira, J. M. C.: Relationships between Human Population Density and Burned Area at Continental and Global Scales, PLoS ONE, 8, e81188, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081188, 2013.
10. Bond, W. J. and Wilgen, B.: Fire and plants, Chapman and Hall, London, UK, 1996.
11. Bowman, D. M. J. S., Balch, J. K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W. J., Cochrane, M. A., and D'Antonia, C. M.: Fire in the earth system, Science, 324, 481-484, 2009.
12. Brovkin, V., van Bodegom, P. M., Kleinen, T., Wirth, C., Cornwell, W. K., Cornelissen, J. H. C., and Kattge, J.: Plant-driven variation in decomposition rates improves projections of global litter stock distribution, Biogeosciences, 9, 565-576, doi:10.5194/bg-9-565-2012, 2012.
13. Carcaillet, C., Ali, A. A., Blarquez, O., Genries, A., Mourier, B., and Bremond, L.: Spatial variability of fire history in subalpine forests: From natural to cultural regimes, Ecoscience, 16, 1-12, 2009.
14. Chang, J. F., Viovy, N., Vuichard, N., Ciais, P., Wang, T., Cozic, A., Lardy, R., Graux, A.-I., Klumpp, K., Martin, R., and Soussana, J.-F.: Incorporating grassland management in ORCHIDEE: model description and evaluation at 11 eddy-covariance sites in Europe, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2165-2181, doi:10.5194/gmd-6-2165-2013, 2013.
15. Cecil, D. J., Buechler, D. E., and Blakeslee, R. J.: Gridded lightning climatology from TRMM-LIS and OTD. Dataset description, Atmos. Res., 135-136, 404-414, 2014.
16. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT): Gridded population of the World Version 3 (GPWv3): population density grids, Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), Columbia University, Palisades, 2005.
17. Cohen, J., Cohen, P., West, S. G, and Aiken, L. S.: Applied multiple regression/correlation analysis for the behavioral sciences, Mhwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 3rd Edition, 2003.
18. Dai, A., Trenberth, K. E., and Karl, T. R.: Effects of clouds, soil moisture, precipitation and water vapor on diurnal temperature range, J. Clim., 12, 2451-2473, 1999.
19. Daniau, A.-L., Bartlein, P. J., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Brewer, S., Friedlingstein, P., Harrison-Prentice, T. I., Inoue, J., Izumi, K., Marlon, J. R., Mooney, S., Power, M. J., Stevenson, J., Tinner, W., Andrič, M., Atanassova, J., Behling, H., Black, M., Blarquez, O., Brown, K. J., Carcaillet, C., Colhoun, E. A., Colombaroli, D., Davis, B. A. S., D'Costa, D., Dodson, J., Dupont, L., Eshetu, Z., Gavin, D. G., Genries, A., Haberle, S., Hallett, D. J., Hope, G., Horn, S. P., Kassa, T. G., Katamura, F., Kennedy, L. M., Kershaw, P., Krivonogov, S., Long, C., Magri, D., Marinova, E., McKenzie, G. M., Moreno, P. I., Moss, P., Neumann, F. H., Norström, E., Paitre, C., Rius, D., Roberts, N., Robinson, G. S., Sasaki, N., Scott, L., Takahara, H., Terwilliger, V., Thevenon, F., Turner, R., Valsecchi, V. G., Vannière, B., Walsh, M., Williams, N. and Zhang, Y. : Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 26: doi:10.1029/2011GB004249, 2012.
20. DeFries, R. and Hansen, M. C.: ISLSCP II Continuous Fields of Vegetation Cover, 1992-1993, in: ISLSCP Initiative II Collection, Dataset, edited by: Hall, F. G., Collatz, G., Meeson, B., Los, S., Brown De Colstoun, E., and Landis, D., Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, available at: http://daac.ornl.gov/ from Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (last access: 20 July 2013), 2009.
21. DiMiceli, C. M., Carroll, M. L., Sohlberg, R. A., Huang, C., Hansen, M. C., and Townshend, J. R. G.: Annual Global Automated MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (MOD44B) at 250m Spatial Resolution for Data Years Beginning Day 65, 2000-2010, Collection 5 Percent Tree Cover. University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA, 2011.
22. European Environmental Agency: Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012: An indicator-based report, European Environmental Agency, 300 pp., 2012.
23. Falk, D. A., Heyerdahl, E. K., Peter M Brown, P. M., Farris, C., Fulé, P. Z., McKenzie, D., Swetnam, T. W., Taylor, A. H., and Van Horne, M. L.: Multi-scale controls of historical forest-fire regimes: new insights from fire-scar networks, Front. Ecol. Environ., doi:10.1890/100052, 2011.
24. Fernandes, P. M., Davies, G. M., Ascoli, D., Fernández, C., Moreira, F., Rigolot, E., Stoof, C. R., Vega, J. A., and Molina, D.: Prescribed burning in southern Europe: developing fire management in a dynamic landscape, Front. Ecol. Environ., 11, e4-e14, doi:10.1890/120298, 2013.
25. Gallego-Sala, A. V., Clark, J. M., House, J. I., Orr, H. G., Prentice, I. P., Smith, P., Farewell, T., and Chapman, S. J.: Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain, Clim. Res. 45, 151-162, 2010.
26. Giglio, L, Csiszar, I., and Justice, C. O.: Global distribution and seasonality of active fires as observed with the Terra and Aqua MODIS sensors, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 111, G02016, doi:10.1029/2005JG000142, 2006.
27. Giglio, L., Randerson, J. T., van der Werf, G. R., Kasibhatla, P. S., Collatz, G. J., Morton, D. C., and DeFries, R. S.: Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products, Biogeosciences, 7, 1171-1186, doi:10.5194/bg-7-1171-2010, 2010.
28. Giglio, L., Randerson, J. T., and van der Werf, G. R.: Analysis of daily, monthly, and annual burned area using the fourth-generation global emissions database (GFED4), J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 118, 317-328, 2013.
29. Guyette, R. P., Muzika, R. M., and Dey, D. C.: Dynamics of an anthropogenic fire regime, Ecosystems, 5, 472-486, doi:10.1007/s10021-002-0115-7, 2002.
30. Hardy, C. C. and Hardy, C. E.: Fire danger rating in the United States of America: an evolution since 1916, International Journal of Wildland Fire, 16, 217-231, 2007.
31. Harrison, S. P., Marlon, J., and Bartlein, P. J.: Fire in the Earth System, in: Changing Climates, Earth Systems and Society, edited by: Dodson, J., Springer-Verlag, 21-48, 2010.
32. Kelley, D. I., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Wang, H., Simard, M., Fisher, J. B., and Willis, K. O.: A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models, Biogeosciences, 10, 3313-3340, doi:10.5194/bg-10-3313-2013, 2013.
33. Kelley, D. I., Harrison, S. P., and Prentice, I. C.: Improved simulation of fire-vegetation interactions in the Land surface Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX-Mv1), Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 7, 931-1000, doi:10.5194/gmdd-7-931-2014, 2014.
34. Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Van Drecht, G., and De Vos, M.: The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human-induced global land-use change over the past 12 000 years, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 20, 73-86, 2011.
35. Kloster, S., Mahowald, N. M., Randerson, J. T., Thornton, P. E., Hoffman, F. M., Levis, S., Lawrence, P. J., Feddema, J. J., Oleson, K. W., and Lawrence, D. M.: Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model, Biogeosciences, 7, 1877-1902, doi:10.5194/bg-7-1877-2010, 2010.
36. 2exchange studied through an atmospheric tracer transport model, Tellus B, 47, 471-489, 1995.
37. Knorr, W., Kaminski, T., Arneth, A., and Weber, U.: Impact of human population density on fire frequency at the global scale, Biogeosciences, 11, 1085-1102, doi:10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, 2014.
38. Krawchuk, M. A. and Moritz, M. A.: Fire regimes of China: Inference from statistical comparison with the United States, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 18, 626-639, 2009.
39. Krawchuk, M. A., Moritz, M. A., Parisien, M.-A., Van Dorn, J., and Hayhoe, K.: Global pyrogeography: The current and future distribution of wildfire, PLoS ONE, 4, e5102, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005102, 2009.
40. Krinner, G., Viovy, N., Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ogé, J., Polcher, J., and Friedlingstein, P.: A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 1, GB1015, doi:10.1029/2003GB002199, 2005.
41. Larsen, W. A. and McCleary, S. J.: The use of partial residual plots in regression analysis, Technometrics, 14, No. 3 (August 1972), 781-790, 1972.
42. Lavorel, S., Flannigan, M., Lambin, E., and Scholes, M.: Vulnerability of land systems to fire: Interactions among humans, climate, the atmosphere, and ecosystems, Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 12, 33-53, 2007.
43. Lehsten, V., Harmand, P., Palumbo, I., and Arneth, A.: Modelling burned area in Africa, Biogeosciences, 7, 3199-3214, doi:10.5194/bg-7-3199-2010, 2010.
44. Li, F., Zeng, X. D., and Levis, S.: A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, Biogeosciences, 9, 2761-2780, doi:10.5194/bg-9-2761-2012, 2012.
45. Marlon, J., Bartlein. P. J., Carcaillet, C., Gavin, D. G., Harrison, S. P., Higuera, P. E., Joos, F., Power, M. J., and Prentice, I. C.: Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia, Nat. Geosci., 1, 697-701, 2008.
46. Maxwell, S. E.: Sample size and multiple regression analysis, Psychol. Methods, 5, 434-458, doi:10.1037/1082-989X.5.4.434, 2000.
47. McFadden, D.: Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior, in: Frontiers in Econometrics, edited by: Zarembka, P., Academic Press, 105-142 1974.
48. Moritz, M. A., Parisien, M.-A., Batllori, E., Krawchuk, M. A., Van Dorn, J., Ganz, D. J. and Hayhoe, K.: Climatic changes and disruptions to global fire activity, Ecosphere, 3, 49, doi:10.1890/ES11-00345.1, 2012.
49. Nesterov, V. G.: Flammability of the Forest and Methods for Its Determination, (Gorimost lesa i metodi eio opredelenia), Goslesbumizdat, USSR State Ind. Press, Moscow, 1949 (in Russian).
50. Noble I. R., Bary G. A. A., and Gill A. M.: McArthur's fire danger meters expressed as equations, Australian Journal of Ecology, 5, 201-203, 1980.
51. Page Le, Y., Oom, D., Silva, J. M. N., Jonsson, P., and Pereira, J. M. C. : Seasonality of vegetation fires as modified by human action: Observing the deviation from eco-climatic fire regimes, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 19, 575-588, 2010.
52. Papke, L. E. and Wooldridge, J.: Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(k) Plan Participation Rates, J. Appl. Econom., 11, 619-632, 1996.
53. Parisien, M. A. and Moritz, M. A.: Environmental controls on the distribution of wildfire at multiple spatial scales, Ecol. Monogr., 79, 127-154, 2009.
54. Pechony, O. and Shindell, D. T.: Fire parameterization on a global scale, J. Geophys. Res., 114, 1-10, 2009.
55. Peterson, D., Wang, J., Ichoku, C., and Remer, L. A.: Effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on fire activity in the North American boreal forest: implications for fire weather forecasting, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 6873-6888, doi:10.5194/acp-10-6873-2010, 2010.
56. Pfeiffer, M., Spessa, A., and Kaplan, J. O.: A model for global biomass burning in preindustrial time: LPJ-LMfire (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 643-685, doi:10.5194/gmd-6-643-2013, 2013.
57. Prentice, I. C., Sykes, M. T., and Cramer, W.: A simulation model for the transient effects of climate change on forest landscapes, Ecol. Model., 65, 51-70, 1993.
58. Prentice, I. C., Kelley, D. I., Foster, P. N., Friedlingstein, P., Harrison, S. P., and Bartlein, P. J.: Modeling fire and the terrestrial carbon balance, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 25, GB3005, doi:10.1029/2010GB003906, 2011.
59. Pyne, S. J.: Fire: Nature and Culture, Reaktion Books, London, 224 pp., 2012.
60. Rothermel, R. C.: A mathematical model for predicting fire spread in wildland fuels, Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-115, US Dep. of Agric., For. Serv., Intermt. For. and Range Exp. Stn., Ogden, Utah, 1972.
61. Running, S. W.: Is global warming causing more, larger wildfires?, Science 313, 927-928, 2006.
62. Sanderson, E., Jaiteh, M., Levy, M., Redford, K., Wannebo, V., and Woolmer, G.: The human footprint and the last of the wild, Bioscience, 52, 891-904, 2002.
63. Scholze, M., Knorr, W., Arnell, N. W., and Prentice, I. C.: A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 13116-13120, doi:10.1073/pnas.0601816103, 2006.
64. Sheridan, P.: Review of techniques and research for gust forecasting parameterization, Forecasting Research Technical Report 570, UK Met Office, Exeter, 2011.
65. Syphard, A. D., Radeloff, V. C., Hawbaker, T. J., and Stewart, S. I.: Conservation threats due to human-caused increases in fire frequency in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, Conserv. Biol., 23, 758-769, 2009.
66. Thonicke, K., Spessa, A., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Dong, L., and Carmona-Moreno, C.: The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model, Biogeosciences, 7, 1991-2011, doi:10.5194/bg-7-1991-2010, 2010.
67. Wang, H., Prentice, I. C., and Ni, J.: Data-based modelling and environmental sensitivity of vegetation in China, Biogeosciences, 10, 5817-5830, doi:10.5194/bg-10-5817-2013, 2013.
68. van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio L., Gobron, N., and Dolman A. J.: Climate controls on the variability of fires in the tropics and subtropics, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB3028, doi:10.1029/2007GB003122, 2008.
69. van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G. J., Mu, M., Kasibhatla, P. S., Morton, D. C., DeFries, R. S., Jin, Y., and van Leeuwen, T. T.: Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 11707-11735, doi:10.5194/acp-10-11707-2010, 2010.
70. Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., and Swetnam, T. W.: Warming and earlier Spring increases Western U.S. forest wildfire activity, Science, 313, 940-943, 2006.
71. Weise, D. R. and Biging, G. S.: A qualitative comparison of fire spread models incorporating wind and slope effects, Forest Sci., 43, 170-180, 1997.