Linking interdecadal changes in British river ecosystems to water quality and climate dynamics

Global Change Biology

Volumn 20, Issue 9, 2014, Pages 2725-2740

  Vaughan, Ian P ^a   Ormerod, Steve J ^a  

^a CARDIFF UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Flow; Invertebrates; Pollution; Recovery; Temperature; Water quality

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE VARIATION; DECADAL VARIATION; ECOLOGICAL IMPACT; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEM; MACROINVERTEBRATE; NUTRIENT DYNAMICS; RIVER POLLUTION; SPECIES RICHNESS; TAXONOMY; WATER QUALITY; WATER TEMPERATURE;

ENGLAND; UNITED KINGDOM; WALES;

ANIMAL; ANIMAL DISPERSAL; CHEMISTRY; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; INVERTEBRATE; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; RIVER; SPECIES DIFFERENCE; STANDARDS; TEMPERATURE; UNITED KINGDOM; WATER QUALITY;

ANIMAL DISTRIBUTION; ANIMALS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; ENGLAND; INVERTEBRATES; POPULATION DYNAMICS; RIVERS; SPECIES SPECIFICITY; TEMPERATURE; WALES; WATER QUALITY;

EID: 84905011213     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12616     Document Type: Article

References (91)

1. Acuña V, Muñoz I, Giorgi A, Omella M, Sabater F, Sabater S (2005) Drought and postdrought recovery cycles in an intermittent Mediterranean stream: structural and functional aspects. Journal of the North American Benthological Society, 24, 919-933.
2. Allan JD (2004) Landscapes and riverscapes: the influence of land use on stream ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, 35, 257-284.
3. Araújo MB, Peterson AT (2012) Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modelling. Ecology, 93, 1527-1539.
4. Arismendi I, Johnson SL, Dunham JB, Haggerty R, Hockman-Wert D (2012) The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L10401.
5. Armitage PD, Moss D, Wright JF, Furse MT (1983) The performance of a new biological water quality score system based on macroinvertebrates over a wide range of unpolluted running-water sites. Water Research, 17, 333-347.
6. Bell VA, Kay AL, Cole SJ, Jones RG, Moore RJ, Reynard NS (2012) How might climate change affect river flows across the Thames Basin? An area-wide analysis using the UKCP09 Regional Climate Model ensemble. Journal of Hydrology, 442-443, 89-104.
7. Blunden J, Arndt DS (eds) (2012) State of the climate in 2011. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, S1-S264.
8. Boulton AJ (2003) Parallels and contrasts in the effects of drought on stream macroinvertebrate assemblages. Freshwater Biology, 48, 1173-1185.
9. Bradley DC, Ormerod SJ (2001) Community persistence among stream invertebrates tracks the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Animal Ecology, 70, 987-996.
10. Briers RA, Gee JHR, Geoghegan R (2004) Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on growth and phenology of stream insects. Ecography, 27, 811-817.
11. Buckland ST, Magurran AE, Green RE, Fewster RM (2005) Monitoring change in biodiversity through composite indices. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360, 243-254.
12. Bush A, Theischinger G, Nipperess D, Turak E, Hughes L (2013) Dragonflies: climate canaries for river management. Diversity & Distributions, 19, 86-97.
13. Cahill AE, Aiello-Lammens ME, Fisher-Reid MC et al. (2013) How does climate change cause extinction? Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 280, 20121890.
14. Carey PD, Wallis S, Chamberlain PM et al. (2008) Countryside Survey: UK Results from 2007. NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster.
15. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (2011) CEH Code List for Recording the Macroinvertebrates in Fresh Water in the British Isles. CEH, Wallingford, UK.
16. Chessman BC (2009) Climatic changes and 13-year trends in stream macroinvertebrate assemblages in New South Wales, Australia. Global Change Biology, 15, 2791-2802.
17. Chessman BC, McEvoy PK (1998) Towards diagnostic biotic indices for river macroinvertebrates. Hydrobiologia, 364, 169-182.
18. Clarke RT, Furse MT, Gunn RJM, Winder JM, Wright JF (2002) Sampling variation in macroinvertebrate data and implications for river quality indices. Freshwater Biology, 47, 1735-1751.
19. Clews E, Durance I, Vaughan IP, Ormerod SJ (2010) Juvenile salmonid populations in a temperate river system track synoptic trends in climate. Global Change Biology, 16, 3271-3283.
20. Daufresne M, Boët P (2007) Climate change impacts on structure and diversity of fish communities in rivers. Global Change Biology, 13, 2467-2478.
21. Daufresne M, Roger MC, Capra H, Lamouroux N (2004) Long-term changes within the invertebrate and fish communities of the Upper Rhône River: effects of climatic factors. Global Change Biology, 10, 124-140.
22. Déry SJ, Stieglitz M, McKenna EC, Wood EF (2005) Characteristics and trends of river discharge into Hudson, James, and Ungava Bays, 1964-2000. Journal of Climate, 18, 2540-2557.
23. Domisch S, Araújo MB, Bonada N, Pauls SU, Jähnig SC (2012) Modelling distribution in European stream macroinvertebrates under future climates. Global Change Biology, 19, 752-762.
24. Dunbar MJ, Warren M, Extence C et al. (2010) Interaction between macroinvertebrates, discharge and physical habitat in upland rivers. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, 20, S31-S44.
25. Durance I, Ormerod SJ (2007) Climate change effects on upland stream macroinvertebrates over a 25-year period. Global Change Biology, 13, 942-957.
26. Durance I, Ormerod SJ (2009) Trends in water quality and discharge confound long-term warming effects on river macroinvertebrates. Freshwater Biology, 54, 388-405.
27. Durance I, Ormerod SJ (2010) Evidence for the role of climate in the local extinction of a cool-water triclad. Journal of the North American Benthological Society, 29, 1367-1378.
28. Extence CA, Balbi DM, Chadd RP (1999) River flow indexing using British benthic macroinvertebrates: a framework for setting hydroecological objectives. Regulated Rivers: Research & Management, 15, 543-574.
29. Ferreira V, Chauvet E (2011) Synergistic effects of water temperature and dissolved nutrients on litter decomposition and associated fungi. Global Change Biology, 17, 551-564.
30. Fewster RM, Buckland ST, Siriwardena GM, Baillie SR, Wilson JD (2000) Analysis of population trends for farmland birds using generalized additive models. Ecology, 81, 1970-1984.
31. Floury M, Usseglio-Polatera P, Ferreol M, Del Attre C, Souchon Y (2013) Global climate change in large European rivers: long-term effects on macroinvertebrate communities and potential local confounding factors. Global Change Biology, 19, 1085-1099.
32. Freeman EA, Moisen G (2008) Presence Absence: an R package for presence absence analysis. Journal of Statistical Software, 23, 1-30.
33. Gilbert B, Dillon PJ, Somers KM, Reid RA, Scott L (2008) Response of benthic macroinvertebrate communities to El Niño related drought events in six upland streams in south-central Ontario. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 65, 890-905.
34. Grafen A (1989) The phylogenetic regression. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 326, 119-157.
35. Hamilton A, Stamp J, Bierwagen B (2010) Vulnerability of biological metrics and MMIs used in biomonitoring programs to climate change effects based on projections of observavble patterns. Journal of the North American Benthological Society, 29, 1379-1396.
36. Hannaford J, Marsh TJ (2006) An assessment of trends in UK runoff and low flows using a network of undisturbed catchments. International Journal of Climatology, 26, 1237-1253.
37. Hannaford J, Marsh TJ (2007) High flows and flood trends in a network of undisturbed catchments in the UK. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 1325-1338.
38. Harrell FE (2001) Regression Modeling Strategies. Springer-Verlag, New York.
39. Hassall C, Thompson DJ, Harvey IF (2010) The impact of climate-induced distributional changes on the validity of biological water quality metrics. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 160, 451-456.
40. Heino J, Virkkala R, Toivonen H (2009) Climate change and freshwater biodiversity: detected patterns, future trends and adaptations in northern regions. Biological Reviews, 84, 39-54.
41. Hickling R, Roy DB, Hill JK, Thomas CD (2005) A northward shift or range margins in British Odonata. Global Change Biology, 11, 502-506.
42. Hickling R, Roy DB, Hill JK, Fox R, Thomas CD (2006) The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Global Change Biology, 12, 450-455.
43. Hynes HBN (1970) The Ecology of Running Waters. Liverpool University Press, Liverpool.
44. Jackson JK, Füreder L (2006) Long-term studies of freshwater macroinvertebrates: a review of the frequency, duration and ecological significance. Freshwater Biology, 51, 591-603.
45. Kennedy J, Morice C, Parker D (2012) Global and regional climate in 2011. Weather, 67, 212-218.
46. Kingston DG, Lawler DM, McGregor GR (2006) Linkages between atmospheric circulation, climate and streamflow in the northern North Atlantic: research prospects. Progress in Physical Geography, 30, 143-174.
47. Lake PS (2000) Disturbance, patchiness, and diversity in streams. Journal of the North American Benthlogical Society, 19, 573-592.
48. Langford TEL, Shaw PJ, Ferguson AJD, Howard SR (2009) Long-term recovery of macroinvertebrate biota in grossly polluted streams: re-colonisation as a constraint to ecological quality. Ecological Indicators, 9, 1064-1077.
49. Ledger ME, Edwards FK, Brown LE, Milner AM, Woodward G (2011) Impact of simulated drought on ecosystem biomass production: an experimental test in stream mesocosms. Global Change Biology, 17, 2288-2297.
50. Mair L, Thomas CD, Anderson BJ, Fox R, Botham M, Hill JK (2012) Temporal variation in responses of species to four decades of climate warming. Global Change Biology, 18, 2439-2447.
51. Marshall JC, Steward AL, Harch BD (2006) Taxonomic resolution and quantification of freshwater macroinvertebrate samples from an Australian dryland river: the benefits and costs of using species abundance data. Hydrobiologia, 572, 171-194.
52. Mouthon J, Daufresne M (2006) Effects of the 2003 heatwave and climatic warming on mollusc communities of the Saone: a large lowland river and of its two main tributaries (France). Global Change Biology, 12, 441-449.
53. Mueller M, Pander J, Geist J (2013) Taxonomic sufficiency in freshwater ecosystems: effects of taxonomic resolution, functional traits, and data transformation. Freshwater Science, 32, 762-778.
54. Murray-Bligh J (1999) Procedures for Collecting and Analysing Macroinvertebrate Samples. Environment Agency, Bristol.
55. Neal C, Bowes M, Jarvie HP et al. (2012) Lowland river water quality: a new UK data resource for process and environmental management analysis. Hydrological Processes, 26, 949-960.
56. Ormerod SJ, Durance I (2012) Understanding and managing climate change effects on rivers ecosystems. In: River Conservation and Management (eds Boon P, Raven PJ), pp. 107-121. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester.
57. Ormerod SJ, Dobson M, Hildrew AG, Townsend CR (2010) Multiple stressors in freshwater ecosystems. Freshwater Biology, 55 (Suppl. 1), 1-4.
58. Paradis E (2012) Analysis of Phylogenetics and Evolution with R, 2nd edn. Springer, New York.
59. Parr LB, Mason CF (2003) Long-term trends in water quality and their impact of macroinvertebrate assemblages in eutrophic lowland rivers. Water Research, 37, 2969-2979.
60. Pinheiro JC, Bates DM (2000) Mixed-Effects Models in S and S-PLUS. Springer Verlag, New York.
61. Power ME, Parker MS, Dietrich WE (2008) Seasonal reassembly of a river food web: floods, droughts, and impacts of fish. Ecological Monographs, 78, 263-282.
62. Prudhomme C, Young A, Watts G et al. (2012) The drying up of Britain? A national estimate of changes in seasonal river flows from 11 regional climate model simulations. Hydrological Processes, 26, 1115-1118.
63. R Development Core Team (2011) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
64. Rosa J, Ferreira V, Canhoto C, Graça MAS (2013) Combined effects of water temperature and nutrients concentration on periphyton respiration implications of global change. International Review of Hydrobiology, 98, 14-23.
65. Rosemond AD, Mulholland PJ, Elwood JW (1993) Top-down and bottom-up control of stream periphyton: effects of nutrients and herbivores. Ecology, 74, 1264-1280.
66. Ruesch AS, Torgersen CE, Lawler JJ, Olden JD, Peterson EE, Volk CJ, Lawrence DJ (2012) Projected Climate-Induced Habitat Loss for Salmonids in the John Day River Network, Oregon, U.S.A. Conservation Biology, 26, 873-882.
67. Schmidt-Kloiber A, Hering D (eds) (2012) The taxa and autecology database for freshwater organisms, version 5.0. Available at: http://www.freshwaterecology.info (accessed 31 October 2012).
68. Shepherd A, Gill KM, Rood SB (2010) Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down-scaled global circulation modelling. Hydrological Processes, 24, 3864-3877.
69. Stahl K, Hisdal H, Hannaford J et al. (2010) Streamflow trends in Europe: evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 2367-2382.
70. Thackeray SJ, Sparks TH, Frederiksen M et al. (2010) Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments. Global Change Biology, 16, 3304-3313.
71. Thaxter CB, Joys AC, Gregory RD, Baillie SR, Noble DG (2010) Hypotheses to explain patterns of population change among breeding bird species in England. Biological Conservation, 143, 2006-2019.
72. Thomas CD, Lennon JL (1999) Birds extend their ranges northwards. Nature, 399, 213.
73. van Tongeren OFR (1995) Cluster analysis. In: Data Analysis in Communitty and Landscape Ecology (eds Jongman RHG, ter Braak CJF, van Tongeren OFR), pp. 174-212. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
74. Vaughan IP, Ormerod SJ (2005) The continuing challenges of testing species distribution models. Journal of Applied Ecology, 42, 720-730.
75. Vaughan IP, Ormerod SJ (2010) Linking ecological and hydromorphological data: approaches, challenges and future prospects for riverine science. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, 20, S125-S130.
76. Vaughan IP, Ormerod SJ (2012a) A 20-year view of monitoring ecological quality in English and Welsh rivers. In: River Conservation and Management (eds Boon P, Raven PJ), pp. 77-87. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester.
77. Vaughan IP, Ormerod SJ (2012b) Large-scale, long-term trends in British river macroinvertebrates. Global Change Biology, 18, 2184-2194.
78. Vaughan IP, Diamond M, Gurnell AM et al. (2009) Integrating ecology with hydromorphology: a priority for river science and management. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, 19, 113-125.
79. Venables WN, Ripley BD (2002) Modern Applied Statistics with S, 4th edn. Springer-Verlag, New York.
80. Vörösmarty CJ, Lévêque C, Revenga C et al. (2005) Fresh water. In: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Vol. 1, Ch. 7 (eds Hassan R, Scholes R, Ash N), pp. 165-207. Island Press, Washington.
81. Vörösmarty CJ, McIntyre PB, Gessner MO et al. (2010) Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature, 467, 555-561.
82. Wagner R, Schmidt H-H (2004) Yearly discharge patterns determine species abundance and community diversity: analysis of a 25 year record from the Breitenbach. Archiv für Hydrobiologie, 161, 511-540.
83. Walley WJ, Hawkes HA (1996) A computer-based reappraisal of the Biological Monitoring Working Party scores using data from the 1990 river quality survey of England and Wales. Water Research, 30, 2086-2094.
84. Wang S, Zhang X (2012) Long-term trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River Basin in China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 109, 591-603.
85. Webb BW (1996) Trends in stream and river temperature. Hydrological Processes, 10, 205-226.
86. Wenger SJ, Isaak DJ, Luce CH et al. (2011) Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 14175-14180.
87. Whitehead PG, Wilby RL, Battarbee RW, Kernan M, Wade AJ (2009) A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54, 101-123.
88. Wilby RL, Beven KJ, Reynard NS (2008) Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK: more of the same? Hydrological Processes, 22, 2511-2523.
89. Wilby RL, Orr H, Watts G et al. (2010) Evidence needed to manage freshwater ecosystems in a changing climate: turning adaptation principles into practice. Science of the Total Environment, 408, 4150-4164.
90. Wood SN (2006) Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton.
91. Woodward G, Perkins DM, Brown LE (2010) Climate change and freshwater ecosystems: impacts across multiple levels of organization. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365, 2093-2106.