Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 108, Issue 34, 2011, Pages 14175-14180

  Wenger, Seth J ^a   Isaak, Daniel J ^b   Luce, Charles H ^b   Neville, Helen M ^a   Fausch, Kurt D ^c   Dunham, Jason B ^d   Dauwalter, Daniel C ^a   Young, Michael K ^e   Elsner, Marketa M ^f   Rieman, Bruce E ^e   Hamlet, Alan F ^f   Williams, Jack E ^g  

^a Trout Unlimited   (United States)

^b ROCKY MOUNTAIN RESEARCH STATION   (United States)

^c Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability   (United States)

^d FOREST AND RANGELAND ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

^e ROCKY MOUNTAIN RESEARCH STATION   (United States)

^f UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

^g Trout Unlimited   (United States)

Author keywords

Distribution modeling; Global change; Hydrology; Invasive species; Niche model

Indexed keywords

RAIN;

ARTICLE; BIOTIC STRESS; BROWN TROUT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONTROLLED STUDY; FISH; FLOODING; HABITAT; HYDROLOGY; INVASIVE SPECIES; NONHUMAN; ONCORHYNCHUS CLARKII; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RAINBOW TROUT; SALVELINUS FONTINALIS; SOCIOECONOMICS; TEMPERATURE; TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY; TROUT; UNITED STATES; WATER FLOW; WINTER;

ANIMALS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; SPECIES SPECIFICITY; TEMPERATURE; TROUT; UNITED STATES; WATER MOVEMENTS;

ONCORHYNCHUS CLARKII; ONCORHYNCHUS MYKISS; PISCES; SALMO TRUTTA; SALMONIDAE; SALVELINUS FONTINALIS;

EID: 80052161819     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1103097108     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Brown JH, Gillooly JF, Allen AP, Savage VM, West GB (2004) Toward a metabolic theory of ecology. Ecology 85:1771-1789. (Pubitemid 39188101)
2. Poff NL, et al. (1997) The natural flow regime. Bioscience 47:769-784.
3. Lytle DA, Poff NL (2004) Adaptation to natural flowregimes. Trends Ecol Evol 19:94-100.
4. Wiens JA, Stralberg D, Jongsomjit D, Howell CA, Snyder MA (2009) Niches, models, and climate change: assessing the assumptions and uncertainties. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(Suppl 2):19729-19736.
5. Van der Putten WH, Macel M, Visser ME (2010) Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 365:2025-2034.
6. Araújo MB, Luoto M (2007) The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 16:743-753. (Pubitemid 47602777)
7. Poloczanska ES, Hawkins SJ, Southward AJ, Burrows MT (2008) Modeling the response of populations of competing species to climate change. Ecology 89:3138-3149.
8. Rahel FJ, Olden JD (2008) Assessing the effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species. Conserv Biol 22:521-533. (Pubitemid 351813450)
9. Palmer MA, et al. (2009) Climate change and river ecosystems: protection and adaptation options. Environ Manage 44:1053-1068.
10. Arnell NW (1999) The effect of climate change on hydrological regimes in Europe: a continental perspective. Glob Environ Change 9:5-23.
11. Mohseni O, Erickson TR, Stefan HG (1999) Sensitivity of stream temperatures in the United States to air temperatures projected under a global warming scenario. Water Resour Res 35:3723-3733.
12. Selong JH, McMahon TE, Zale AV, Barrows FT (2001) Effect of temperature on growth and survival of bull trout, with application of an improved method for determining thermal tolerance in fishes. Trans Am Fish Soc 130:1026-1037. (Pubitemid 33037447)
13. Seegrist DW, Gard R (1972) Effects of floods on trout in Sagehen Creek, California. Trans Am Fish Soc 101:478-482.
14. Fausch KD, Taniguchi Y, Nakano S, Grossman GD, Townsend CR (2001) Flood disturbance regimes influence rainbow trout invasion success among five holarctic regions. Ecol Appl 11:1438-1455. (Pubitemid 32965096)
15. Warren DR, Ernst AG, Baldigo BP (2009) Influence of spring floods on year-class strength of fall- and spring-spawning salmonids in Catskill mountain streams. Trans Am Fish Soc 138:200-210.
16. Barnett TP, et al. (2008) Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science 319:1080-1083. (Pubitemid 351300787)
17. Ohlund G, Nordwall F, Degerman E, Eriksson T (2008) Life history and large-scale habitat use of brown trout (Salmo trutta) and brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) - implications for species replacement patterns. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 65:633-644. (Pubitemid 351481633)
18. Fausch KD, White RJ (1981) Competition between brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) for positions in a Michigan stream. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 38:1220-1227.
19. Bradley BA (2009) Regional analysis of the impacts of climate change on cheatgrass invasion shows potential risk and opportunity. Glob Change Biol 15:196-208.
20. Behnke RJ (2002) Trout and Salmon of North America (The Free Press, Simon and Schuster, New York).
21. Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model Selection and Multimodel Inference (Springer, New York, NY).
22. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Working Group 2: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva).
23. Littell JS, et al. (2010) Regional Climate and Hydrologic Change in the Northern US Rockies and Pacific Northwest: Internally Consistent Projections of Future Climate for Resource Management (University of Washington, Seattle, WA).
24. Baxter CV, Hauer FR (2000) Geomorphology, hyporheic exchange, and selection of spawning habitat by bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). Can J Fish Aquat Sci 57: 1470-1481.
25. Dunham JB, Adams SB, Schroeter RE, Novinger DC (2002) Alien invasions in aquatic ecosystems: Toward an understanding of brook trout invasions and potential impacts on inland cutthroat trout in western North America. Rev Fish Biol Fish 12:373-391. (Pubitemid 37224414)
26. Beechie T, Buhle E, Ruckelshaus M, Fullerton A, Holsinger L (2006) Hydrologic regime and the conservation of salmon life history diversity. Biol Conserv 130:560-572.
27. Jager HI, Van Winkle W, Holcomb BD (1999) Would hydrologic climate changes in Sierra Nevada streams influence trout persistence? Trans Am Fish Soc 128:222-240.
28. McCullough DA, et al. (2009) Research in thermal biology: burning questions for coldwater stream fishes. Rev Fish Sci 17:90-115.
29. Heikkinen RK, Luoto M, Virkkala R, Pearson RG, Korber JH (2007) Biotic interactions improve prediction of boreal bird distributions at macro-scales. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 16:754-763.
30. Pearson RG, Dawson TP (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Glob Ecol Biogeogr 12:361-371.
31. Rieman BE, Hessburg PF, Luce C, Dare MR (2010) Wildfire and management of forests and native fishes: conflict or opportunity for convergent solutions? Bioscience 60:460-468.
32. Fausch KD, Rieman BE, Dunham JB, Young MK, Peterson DP (2009) Invasion versus isolation: trade-offs in managing native salmonids with barriers to upstream movement. Conserv Biol 23:859-870.
33. DeStaso J, Rahel FJ (1994) Influence of water temperature on interactions between juvenile Colorado River cutthroat trout and brook trout in a laboratory stream. Trans Am Fish Soc 123:289-297. (Pubitemid 2114846)
34. Wenger SJ, et al. (2011) Role of climate and invasive species in structuring trout distributions in the Interior Columbia Basin. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 68:988-1008.
35. Harris A (2010) Trout Fishing in 2006: A Demographic Description and Economic Analysis (US Fish and Wildlife Service, Arlington, VA).
36. Baxter CV, Fausch KD, Murakami M, Chapman PL (2004) Fish invasion restructures stream and forest food webs by interrupting reciprocal prey subsidies. Ecology 85:2656-2663. (Pubitemid 39448237)
37. Isaak DJ, et al. (2010) Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network. Ecol Appl 20:1350-1371.
38. Wenger SJ, Luce CH, Hamlet AF, Isaak DJ, Neville HM (2010) Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics. Water Resour Res, 46: W09513.
39. Elsner M, et al. (2010) Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State. Clim Change 102:225-260.
40. Raudenbush SW, Bryk AS (2002) Hierarchical Linear Models: Applications and Data Analsyis Methods (Sage Publications, London, UK).
41. Wagner T, Hayes DB, Bremigan MT (2006) Accounting for multilevel data structures in fisheries data using mixed models. Fisheries (Bethesda, MD) 31:180-187.
42. Bates D, Maechler M (2009) lme4: Linear mixed-effects models using S4 classes, R package version 0.999375-32.
43. R Development Core Team (2009) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria).
44. Arnold T (2010) Uninformative parameters and model selection using Akaike's Information Criterion. J Wildl Manage 74:1175-1178.
45. Randin CF, et al. (2006) Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space? J Biogeogr 33:1689-1703.
46. Vaughan IP, Ormerod SJ (2005) The continuing challenges of testing species distribution models. J Appl Ecol 42:720-730. (Pubitemid 41710795)
47. Liu CR, Berry PM, Dawson TP, Pearson RG (2005) Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography 28:385-393. (Pubitemid 40809906)
48. Rieman B, Dunham J, Peterson J (1999) Development of a Database to Support a Multi-Scale Analysis of the Distribution of Westslope Cutthroat Trout (USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Boise, ID).