Analysis of population trends for farmland birds using generalized additive models

Ecology

Volumn 81, Issue 7, 2000, Pages 1970-1984

  Fewster, Rachel M ^a,d   Buckland, Stephen T ^a   Siriwardena, Gavin M ^b,c   Baillie, Stephen R ^b   Wilson, Jeremy D ^c,e  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ST ANDREWS   (United Kingdom)

^b THE NUNNERY   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF AUCKLAND   (New Zealand)

^e RSPB CENTRE FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Bird census schemes; British birds; Change points; Common Birds Census; Farmland birds; Generalized additive models; Log linear Poisson regression; Nonlinear trend; Population trajectory; Spatiotemporal models; Trend analysis

Indexed keywords

AVIFAUNA; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION MODELING;

EID: 0033941512     PISSN: 00129658     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/0012-9658(2000)081[1970:AOPTFF]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Baillie, S. R. 1990. Integrated population monitoring of breeding birds in Britain and Ireland. Ibis 132:151-166.
2. Baillie, S. R., R. D. Gregory, and G. M. Siriwardena. 1997. Farmland bird declines: patterns, processes and prospects. Biodiversity and Conservation in Agriculture. British Crop Protection Council Symposium Proceedings 69:65-87.
3. Barker, R. J., and J. R. Sauer. 1992. Modelling population change from time series data. Pages 182-194 in D. R. McCullough and R. H. Barrett, editors. Wildlife 2001: populations. Elsevier, London, UK.
4. Bowerman, B. L., and R. T. O'Connell. 1987. Time series forecasting. Second edition. Duxbury Press, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
5. Buckland, S. T. 1984. Monte Carlo confidence intervals. Biometrics 40:811-817.
6. Chambers, J. M., and T. J. Hastie. 1993. Statistical models in S. Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
7. Dahlquist, G., and Å. Björck. 1974. Numerical methods. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, USA.
8. Droege, S. 1990. The North American Breeding Bird Survey. Pages 1-4 in J. R. Sauer and S. Droege, editors. Survey designs and statistical methods for the estimation of avian population trends. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Report 90(1).
9. Engel, B., and A. Keen. 1994. A simple approach for the analysis of generalized linear mixed models. Statistica Neerlandica 48:1-22.
10. Francis, B., M. Green, and C. Payne, editors. 1993. The GLIM system: release 4 manual. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
11. Fuller, R. J., R. D. Gregory, D. W. Gibbons, J. H. Marchant, J. D. Wilson, S. R. Baillie, and N. Carter. 1995. Population declines and range contractions among lowland farmland birds in Britain. Conservation Biology 9:1425-1441.
12. Fuller, R. J., J. H. Marchant, and R. A. Morgan. 1985. How representative of agricultural practice in Britain are Common Birds Census farmland plots? Bird Study 32:56-70.
13. Geissler, P. H., and B. R. Noon. 1981. Estimates of avian population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Pages 42-51 in C. J. Ralph and J. M. Scott, editors. Estimating numbers of terrestrial birds. Studies in Avian Biology 6.
14. Geissler, P. H., and J. R. Sauer. 1990. Topics in route regression analysis. Pages 54-57 in J. R. Saner and S. Droege, editors. Survey designs and statistical methods for the estimation of avian population trends. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Report 90(1).
15. Gerrodette, T. 1987. A power analysis for detecting trends. Ecology 68:1364-1372.
16. Gerrodette, T. 1991. Models for power of detecting trends -a reply to Link and Hatfield. Ecology 72:1889-1892.
17. Gibbons, D. W., J. B. Reid, and R. A. Chapman. 1993. The new atlas of breeding birds in Britain and Ireland, 1988-1991. Poyser, London, UK.
18. Gotway, C. A., and W. W. Stroup. 1997. A generalized linear model approach to spatial data analysis and prediction. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 2:157-178.
19. Greenwood, J. J. D., and S. R. Baillie. 1991. Effects of density dependence and weather on population changes of English passerines using a non-experimental paradigm. Ibis 133(suppl. 1):121-133.
20. Gregory, R. D., S. R. Baillie, and R. I. Bashford. In press. Monitoring breeding birds in the United Kingdom. In (Proceedings of the 13th International Conference of European Bird Census Councils. Estonia 1995.
21. Hastie, T. J., and R. J. Tibshirani. 1990. Generalized additive models. Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
22. James, F. C., C. E. McCulloch, and D. A. Wiedenfeld. 1996. New approaches to the analysis of population trends in land birds. Ecology 77:13-27.
23. James, F. C., C. E. McCulloch, and L. E. Wolfe. 1990. Methodological issues in the estimation of trends in bird populations with an example: the Pine Warbler. Pages 84-97 in J. R. Sauer and S. Droege, editors. Survey designs and statistical methods for the estimation of avian population trends. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Report 90(1).
24. Link, W. A., and J. R. Sauer. 1997a. Estimation of population trajectories from count data. Biometrics 53:488-497.
25. Link, W. A., and J. R. Sauer. 1997b. New approaches to the analysis of population trends in land birds: comment. Ecology 78:2632-2634.
26. Marchant, J. H., and R. D. Gregory. 1994. Recent population changes among seed-eating passerines in the United Kingdom. Pages 87-95 in W. Hagemeijer and T. Verstrael, editors. Bird Numbers 1992. Distribution, Monitoring and Ecological Aspects. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference of the International Bird Census Committee and European Ornithological Atlas Committee. SOVON, Beek-Ubbergen, The Netherlands.
27. Marchant, J. H., R. Hudson, S. P. Carter, and P. Whittington. 1990. Population trends in British breeding birds. British Trust for Ornithology, Tring, Hertfordshire, UK.
28. McCullagh, P., and J. A. Neider. 1989. Generalized linear models. Second edition. Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
29. Mountford, M. D. 1982. Estimation of population fluctuations with application to the Common Birds Census. Applied Statistics 31:135-143.
30. Mountford. M. D. 1985. An index of population change with application to the Common Birds Census. Pages 121-132 in B. J. T. Morgan and P. M. North, editors. Statistics in ornithology. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
31. Neider, J. A., and R. W. M. Wedderburn. 1972. Generalized linear models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 135:370-384.
32. O'Connor, R. J., and M. Shrubb. 1986. Farming and birds. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
33. Pannekoek, J., and A. van Strien. 1996. TRIM (TRends and Indices for Monitoring data). Research paper 9634. Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg, The Netherlands.
34. Peach, W. J., and S. R. Baillie. 1994. Implementation of the Mountford indexing method for the Common Birds Census. Pages 653-662 in W. Hagemeijer and T. Verstrael, editors. Bird Numbers 1992. Distribution, Monitoring and Ecological Aspects. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference of the International Bird Census Committee and European Ornithological Atlas Committee. SOVON, Beek-Ubbergen, The Netherlands.
35. Peach, W. J., S. R. Baillie, and D. E. Balmer. 1998. Long-term changes in the abundance of small passerines in Britain and Ireland as measured by constant effort mist-netting. Bird Study 45:257-275.
36. SAS Institute. 1996. SAS/STAT software: changes and enhancements through release 6.11. SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina, USA.
37. Sauer, J. R., and P. H. Geissler. 1990. Annual indices from route regression analyses. Pages 58-62 in J. R. Sauer and S. Droege, editors. Survey designs and statistical methods for the estimation of avian population trends. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Report 90(1).
38. Schall, R. 1991. Estimation in generalized linear models with random effects. Biometrika 78:719-727.
39. Siriwardena, G. M., S. R. Baillie, S. T. Buckland, R. M. Fewster, J. H. Marchant, and J. D. Wilson. 1998a. Trends in the abundance of farmland birds: a quantitative comparison of smoothed Common Birds Census indices. Journal of Applied Ecology 35:24-43.
40. Siriwardena, G. M., S. R. Baillie, and J. D. Wilson. 1998b. Variation in the survival rates of British passerines with respect to their population trends on farmland. Bird Study 45:276-292.
41. Statistical Sciences. 1993. S-PLUS reference manual. StatSci, a division of Mathsoft, Seattle, Washington, USA.
42. Taub, S. R. 1990. Smoothed scatterplot analysis of long-term Breeding Bird Census data. Pages 80-83 in J. R. Sauer and S. Droege, editors. Survey designs and statistical methods for the estimation of avian population trends. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Report 90(1).
43. ter Braak, C. J. F., A. J. van Strien, R. Meijer, and T. J. Verstrael. 1994. Analysis of monitoring data with many missing values: which method? Pages 663-673 in W. Hagemeijer and T. Verstrael, editors. Bird Numbers 1992. Distribution. Monitoring and Ecological Aspects. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference of the International Bird Census Committee and European Ornithological Atlas Committee. SOVON, Beek-Ubbergen, The Netherlands.
44. Thomas, L. 1996. Monitoring long-term population change: why are there so many analysis methods? Ecology 77:49-58.
45. Tucker, G. M., and M. F. Heath. 1994. Birds in Europe: their conservation status. BirdLife International, Cambridge, UK.