Quantifying the summertime response of the Austral jet stream and hadley cell to stratospheric ozone and greenhouse gases

Journal of Climate

Volumn 27, Issue 14, 2014, Pages 5538-5559

  Gerber, Edwin P ^a   Son, Seok Woo ^b  

^a NEW YORK UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Seoul National University   (South Korea)

Author keywords

Anthropogenic effects; Atmospheric circulation; Climate change; Climate models; Southern Hemisphere; Stratophere troposphere coupling

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERICS; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLOUDS; GREENHOUSE GASES; OZONE; OZONE LAYER; TROPOSPHERE;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECTS; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE MODELS; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE; STRATOPHERE-TROPOSPHERE COUPLINGS; STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; TROPICAL TEMPERATURES;

CLIMATE MODELS;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; COUPLING; GREENHOUSE GAS; HADLEY CELL; JET STREAM; OZONE; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE; STRATOSPHERE-TROPOSPHERE INTERACTION; TEMPERATURE GRADIENT; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84904497229     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00539.1     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Arblaster, J. M., and G. A. Meehl, 2006: Contributions of external forcings to southern annular mode trends. J. Climate, 19, 2896-2905.
2. Arblaster, J. M., and G. A. Meehl, D. J. Karoly, 2011: Future climate change in the Southern Hemisphere: Competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L02701.
3. Barnes, E. A., and D. L. Hartmann, 2010: Testing a theory for the effect of latitude on the persistence of eddy-driven jets using CMIP3 simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L15801.
4. Barnes, E. A., N. W. Barnes, and L. M. Polvani, 2014: Delayed Southern Hemisphere climate change induced by stratospheric ozone recovery, as projected by the CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 27, 852-867.
5. Butler, A. H., D. W. J. Thompson, and R. Heikes, 2010: The steadystate atmospheric circulation response to climate change-like thermal forcings in a simple general circulation model. J. Climate, 23, 3474-3496.
6. Butler, A. H., D. W. J. Thompson, and T. Birner, 2011: Isentropic slopes, downgradient eddy fluxes, and the extratropical atmospheric circulation response to tropical tropospheric heating. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2292-2305.
7. Ceppi, P., Y.T. Hwang, X. Liu, D. M. W. Frierson, and D. L. Hartmann, 2013: The relationship between the ITCZ and the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 5136-5146.
8. Charlton-Perez, A. J., and Coauthors, 2013: On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2494-2505.
9. Cionni, I., and Coauthors, 2011:Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: Results and corresponding radiative forcing. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 11 267-11 292.
10. Crook, J. A., N. P. Gillett, and S. P. E. Keeley, 2008: Sensitivity of Southern Hemisphere climate to zonal asymmetry in ozone. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L07806.
11. Deser, C., A. Phillips, V. Bourdette, and H. Teng, 2012: Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability. Climate Dyn., 38, 527-546.
12. Eyring, V., T. G. Shepherd, and D. W. Waugh, Eds., 2010: Chemistryclimate model validation. SPARC Rep. 5, 426 pp. [Available online at http://www.sparc-climate.org/publications/sparc-reports/sparc-report-no5/.]
13. Eyring, V., and Coauthors, 2013: Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 5029-5060.
14. Farman, J. C., B. G. Gardiner, and J. D. Shanklin, 1985: Large losses in total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal CLOx/NOx interaction. Nature, 315, 207-210.
15. Garfinkel, C. I., D. W. Waugh, and E. P. Gerber, 2013: The effect of tropospheric jet latitude on coupling between the stratospheric polar vortex and the troposphere. J. Climate, 26, 2077-2095.
16. Gerber, E. P., and Coauthors, 2012: Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on the Earth system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 845-859.
17. Gillett, N. P., and D. W. J. Thompson, 2003: Simulation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science, 302, 273-275.
18. Gillett, N. P., J. C. Fyfe, and D. E. Parker, 2013: Attribution of observed sea level pressure trends to greenhouse gas, aerosol and ozone changes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2302-2306.
19. Hassler, B., P. J. Young, R. W. Portmann, G. E. Bodeker, J. S. Daniel, K. H. Rosenlof, and S. Solomon, 2013: Comparison of three vertically resolved ozone data sets: Climatology, trends and radiative forcings. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5533-5550.
20. Hu, Y., Y. Xia, and Q. Fu, 2011: Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 7687-76991.
21. Kang, S., and L. M. Polvani, 2011: The interannual relationship between the latitude of the eddy-driven jet and the edge of the Hadley cell. J. Climate, 24, 563-568.
22. Kang, S., and L. M. Polvani, J. C. Fyfe, and M. Sigmond, 2011: Impact of polar ozone depletion on subtropical precipitation. Science, 332, 951-954.
23. Kidston, J., and E. P. Gerber, 2010: Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in 20th century climatology. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L09708.
24. Kushner, P. J., I. M. Held, and T. L. Delworth, 2001: Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation response to global warming. J. Climate, 14, 2238-2249.
25. Lee, S., and S. B. Feldstein, 2013: Detecting ozone- and greenhouse gas-driven wind trends with observational data. Science, 339, 563-567.
26. Lorenz, E. N., 1967: The Nature and Theory of theGeneral Circulation of the Atmosphere. World Meteorological Organization, 161 pp.
27. Marshall, G. J., 2003: Trends in the southern annular mode from observations and reanalyses. J. Climate, 16, 4134-4143.
28. McLandress, C., T. G. Shepherd, J. F. Scinocca, D. A. Plummer, M. Sigmond, A. I. Jonsson, and M. C. Reader, 2011: Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part II: Southern Hemisphere troposphere. J. Climate, 24, 1850-1868.
29. McLandress, C., J. Perlwitz, and T. G. Shepherd, 2012: Comment on "Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century"by Hu et al. (2011). Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2533-2540.
30. Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, B. McAvaney, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor, 2007: The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1383-1394.
31. Perlwitz, J., S. Pawson, R. L. Fogt, J. E. Nielsen, and W. D. Neff, 2008: The impact of stratospheric ozone hole recovery on Antarctic climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08714.
32. Polvani, L. M., and P. J. Kushner, 2002: Tropospheric response to stratospheric perturbations in a relatively simple general circulation model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29.
33. Polvani, L. M., D. W. Waugh, G. J. P. Correa, and S.W. Son, 2011: Stratospheric ozone depletion: The main driver of twentieth-century atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Climate, 24, 795-812.
34. Riviéere, G., 2011: A dynamical interpretation of the poleward shift of the jet streams in global warming scenarios. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1253-1272.
35. Seidel, D. J., and W. J. Randel, 2007: Recent widening of the tropical belt: Evidence from tropopause observations. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D20113.
36. Simpson, I. R., M. Blackburn, and J. D. Haigh, 2009: The role of eddies in driving the tropospheric response to stratospheric heating perturbations. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1347-1365.
37. Son, S.W., and Coauthors, 2008: The impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet. Science, 320, 1486-1489.
38. Son, S.W., N. F. Tandon, L. M. Polvani, and D. W. Waugh, 2009: Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15705, doi:10.1029/2009GL038671.
39. Son, S.W., and Coauthors, 2010: The impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M07.
40. Tandon, N. F., E. P. Gerber, A. H. Sobel, and L. M. Polvani, 2013: Contrasting the circulation response to El Ni~no and global warming. J. Climate, 26, 4304-4321.
41. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498.
42. Thompson, D. W. J., and S. Solomon, 2002: Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science, 296, 895-899.
43. Thompson, D. W. J., and S. Solomon, P. J. Kushner, M. H. England, K. M. Grise, and D. J. Karoly, 2011: Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change. Nat. Geosci., 4, 741-749.
44. Trenberth, K. E., and J. T. Fasullo, 2010: Simulation of presentday and twenty-first-century energy budgets of the Southern Oceans. J. Climate, 23, 440-454.
45. Wang, S., E. P. Gerber, and L. M. Polvani, 2012: Abrupt circulation responses to upper-tropospheric warming in a relatively simple stratosphere-resolving AGCM. J. Climate, 25, 5097-4115.
46. Watson, P. A. G., D. J. Karoly, M. R. Allen, N. Faull, and D. S. Lee, 2012: Quantifying uncertainty in future Southern Hemisphere circulation trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L23708.
47. Waugh, D. W., L. Oman, P. A. Newman, R. S. Stolarski, S. Pawson, J. E. Nielsen, and J. Perlwitz, 2009: Effect of zonal asymmetries in stratospheric ozone on simulated Southern Hemisphere climate trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L18701.
48. Waugh, D. W., F. Primeau, T. DeVries, and M. Holzer, 2013: Recent changes in ventilation of the southern oceans. Science, 339, 568-570.
49. Wilcox, L. J., A. J. Charlton-Perez, and L. J. Gray, 2012: Trends in austral jet position in ensembles of high- and low-top CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D13115.
50. Yin, J. H., 2005: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701.