The impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet

Science

Volumn 320, Issue 5882, 2008, Pages 1486-1489

  Son, S W ^a   Polvani, L M ^a,b   Waugh, W ^c   Akiyoshi, H ^d   Garcia, R ^e   Kinnison, D ^e   Pawson, S ^f   Rozanov, E ^g,h   Shepherd, T G ⁱ   Shibata, K ^j  

^a Columbia University ^*  (United States)

^b Och Spine at New York Presbyterian Hospitals   (United States)

^c JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Japan)

^e NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^f NASA GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER   (United States)

^g Land Climate Dynamics Group   (Switzerland)

^h WORLD RADIATION CENTER   (Switzerland)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO   (Canada)

^j METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Japan)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

OZONE;

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; MODEL VALIDATION; OZONE; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE; STRATOSPHERE; TROPOSPHERE; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; WESTERLY;

ARTICLE; ATMOSPHERE; CHEMISTRY CLIMATE MODEL VALIDATION MODEL; CLIMATE CHANGE; CORRELATION ANALYSIS; FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT MODEL; GAS; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; GREENHOUSE GAS; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE MODEL; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE; STRATOSPHERE; TEMPERATURE; THEORETICAL MODEL; TROPOSPHERE; WIND;

EID: 46449096869     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: 10959203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.1155939     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. D. W. J. Thompson, J. M. Wallace, G. C. Hegerl, J. Clim. 13, 1018 (2000).
2. D. W. J. Thompson, S. Solomon, Science 296, 895 (2002).
3. G. J. Marshall, J. Clim. 16, 4134 (2003).
4. G. Chen, I. Held, Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L21805 (2007).
5. J. H. Yin, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L18701 (2005).
6. J. Lu, G. A. Vecchi, T. Reichler, Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L06805 (2007).
7. J. Russell, K. W. Dixon, A. Gnanadesikan, R. J. Stouffer, J. R. Toggweiler, J. Clim. 19, 6382 (2006).
8. B. K. Mignone, A. Gnanadesikan, J. L. Sarmiento, R. D. Slater, Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L01604 (2006).
9. N. P. Gillett, D. W. J. Thompson, Science 302, 273 (2003).
10. D. T. Shindell, G. A. Schmidt, Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L18209 (2004).
11. J. M. Arblaster, G. A. Meehl, J. Clim. 19, 2896 (2006).
12. A first hint of ozone recovery is already present in the most recent observations (15, 28). The sharp decrease in stratospheric ozone concentration has ceased around the year 2000, and ozone levels have started to increase since then. Although weak, this increasing trend is found in almost all ground-based and satellite observations (28). In addition, the chemistry-climate models, discussed in the text, predict that the increase in stratospheric ozone concentration will continue in the 21st century (15).
13. R. L. Miller, G. A. Schmidt, D. T. Shindell, J. Geophys. Res. 111, D18101 (2006).
14. D. J. Lorenz, E. T. DeWeaver, J. Geophys. Res. 112, D10119 (2007).
15. V. Eyring et al., J. Geophys. Res. 112, D16303 (2007).
16. The CCMVal models used in this study are AMTRAC, CCSRNIES, CMAM, GEOSCCM, MRI, SOCOL, and WACCM [see table 1 of (15) for the detailed model configuration]. All available ensemble members are used for each model.
17. G. A. Meehl et al., in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2007), pp. 747-845.
18. E. C. Cordero, P. M. de F. Forster, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6, 5369 (2006).
19. The AR4 models used in this study are BCCR-BCM2.0, CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.0, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, FGOALS-g1.0, GFDL-CM2.0, GFDL-CM2.1, GISS-AOM, GISS-EH, GISS-ER, INM-CM3.0, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3.2(medres), MRI-CGCM2.3.2, UKMO-HadCM3, UKMO-HadGEM1, and PCM. Among these 19 models, 10 models - CCSM3, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.0, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, GFDL-CM2.0, GFDL-CM2.1, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3, UKMO-HadGEM1, and PCM - prescribe ozone recovery. All available ensemble members are used for each model.
20. Changes in stratospheric ozone concentration in CCMVal-model integrations are not perfectly linear. Almost all CCMVal models predict a slow increase until 2010 and a relatively faster increase thereafter until about 2060 [see figure 7 in (15)].
21. W. Randel, F. Wu, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 3089 (1999).
22. J. Perlwitz, S. Pawson, R. L. Fogt, J. E. Nielsen, W. D. Neff, Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L08714 (2008).
23. J. A. Crook, N. P. Gillett, S. P. E. Keeley, Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L07806 (2008).
24. D. T. Shindell, G. A. Schmidt, R. L. Miller, D. Rind, J. Geophys. Res. 106, 7193 (2001).
25. J. Perlwitz, N. Harnik, J. Clim. 16, 3011 (2003).
26. P. J. Kushner, L. M. Polvani, J. Clim. 17, 629 (2004).
27. D. W. J. Thompson, J. C. Furtado, T. G. Shepherd, J. Atmos. Sci. 63, 2616 (2006).
28. E.-S. Yang, D. M. Cunnold, M. J. Newchurch, R. J. Salawitch, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L12812 (2005).
29. The authors thank J. Austin and J. Perlwitz for helpful discussions and suggestions on the manuscript, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Diagnostics Center for providing the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-NCAR reanalysis data, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for providing the ERA40 data, the World Climate Research Programme SPARC CCMVal project for organizing the chemistry-climate model (CCM) data analysis activity, the British Atmospheric Data Center for collecting and archiving the CCM output, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison for collecting and archiving the IPCC/AR4 model data, the Joint Scientific Committee of the Climate Variability Working Groups on Coupled Modeling and their Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit for technical support. The IPCC Data Archive at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Sciences, U.S. Department of Energy. The work of S.W.S. and L.M.P. is supported, in part, by a grant from the NSF. Contributions of D.W.W. and S.P. are supported by NASA's modeling and analysis program, and GEOSCCM was run on Columbia with resources allocated by NASA's high-performance computing program. WACCM simulations were carried out at NCAR, at NASA's Ames Research Center, and at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain. The CCSRNIES's research is supported by the Global Environmental Research Fund of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan (A 071) and a grant in aid for scientific research from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan (no. 19340138). The development and maintenance of SOCOL are supported by ETH Zurich (grant PP 1/04 1) and the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant SCOPES IB7320 110884). Contributions of the CMAM group and T.G.S. are supported by the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and Environment Canada. NCAR is sponsored by the NSF.