Impact of precession on the climate, vegetation and fire activity in southern Africa during MIS4

Climate of the Past

Volumn 10, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 1165-1182

  Woillez, M N ^a,b,c   Levavasseur, G ^d   Daniau, A L ^a   Kageyama, M ^e   Urrego, D H ^a,b,c   Sanchez Goni M F ^b   Hanquiez, V ^a  

^a CNRS   (France)

^b UNIVERSITÉ BORDEAUX 1   (France)

^c UNIVERSITÉ BORDEAUX 1   (France)

^d INSTITUT PIERRE SIMON LAPLACE   (France)

^e LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BIOME; DOWNSCALING; FIRE BEHAVIOR; FIRE HISTORY; MARINE ISOTOPE STAGE; MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT; SIMULATION; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

AFRICA;

EID: 84902779096     PISSN: 18149324     EISSN: 18149332     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/cp-10-1165-2014     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. Amante, C. and Eakins, B.: Etopo1-1 arc-minute global relief model: procdures, data sources and analysis, Technical report, National Geophysical Data Center, NESDIS, NOAA, US Department of Commerce, National Geophysical Data Center, Boulder, Colorado, 2008.
2. Archibald, S., David, R., Van Wilgen, B., and Scholes, R.: What limits fire? an examination of drivers of burnt area in southern africa, Global Change Biol., 15, 613-630, 2009.
3. Archibald, S., Scholes, R., Roy, D., Roberts, G., and Boschetti, L.: Southern African fire regimes as reaveled by remote sensing, J. Wildland Fire, 19, 861-878, 2010.
4. Archibald, S., Staver, A., and Levin, S.: Evolution of human-driven fire regimes in africa, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 109, 847-852, 2012.
5. Argus, D. and Peltier, W.: Constraining models of postglacial rebound using space geodesy: a detailed assessment of model ICE-5G (VM2) and its relatives, Geophys. J. Int., 181, 697-723, 2010.
6. Banks, W., d'Errico, F., Townsend Peterson, A., Vanhaeren, M., Kageyama, M., Sepulchre, P., Ramstein, G., Jost, A., and Lunt, D.: Human ecological niches and ranges during the LGM in Europe derived from an application of eco-cultural niche modeling, J. Archeol. Sci., 35, 481-491, 2008.
7. Bond, W., Midgley, G., and Woodward, F.: The importance of low atmospheric CO2 and fire in promoting the spread of grasslands and savannas, Global Change Biol., 9, 973-982, 2003a. (Pubitemid 36941473)
8. Bond, W., Midgley, G., and Woodward, F.: What controls South African vegetation-climate or fire ?, South Afr. J. Botany, 69, 79-91, 2003b. (Pubitemid 36820887)
9. Braconnot, P. and Marti, O.: Impact of precession on monsoon characteristics from coupled ocean atmosphere experiments: changes in Indian monsoon and Indian ocean climatology, Mar. Geol., 1-3, 23-24, 2003.
10. Braconnot, P., Joussaume, S. de Noblet, N., and Ramstein, G.: Mid-Holocene and last glacial maximum African monsoon changes as simulated within the Paleoclimate modelling intercomparison project, Global Planet. Changes, 26, 51-66, 2000.
11. Cheng, M. and Qi, Y.: Frontal Rainfall-Rate Distribution and some conclusions on the threshold method, J. Appl. Meteorol., 41, 1128-1139, 2002. (Pubitemid 36029557)
12. Christian, H., Blakeslee, R., Boccippio, D., Boeck, W., Buechler, D., Driscoll, K., Goodman, S., Hall, J., Koshak, W., Mach, D., and Stewart, M.: Global frequency and distribution of lightning as observed from space by the optical transient detector, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. (1984-2012), 108, ACL4-1-ACL4-15, 2003.
13. Compo, G., Whitaker, J., Sardeshmukh, P., Matsui, N., Allan, R., Yin, X., Gleason, B., Vose, R., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R., Grant, A., Groisman, P., Jones, P., Kruk, M., Kruger, A., Marshall, G., Maugeri, M., Mok, H., Nordli, E., Ross, T., Trigo, R.,Wang, X.,Woodruff, S., andWorley, S.: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137 1-28, 2011.
14. Cowling, R., Richardson, D., and Pierce, S. (Eds.): Vegetation of Southern Africa, Cambridge University Press, 1997. : (1999).
15. Physiological significance of low atmospheric CO2 for plant-climate interactions, Quaternary Res., 52, 237-242, 1999.
16. Daniau, A.-L., Sanchez-Goñi, M.-F., Beaufort, L., Laggoun-Défarge, F., Loutre, M.-F., and Duprat, J.: Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic variability revealed by fire emissions in southwestern Iberia, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 26, 1369-1383, 2007. (Pubitemid 46894710)
17. Daniau, A.-L., Sánchez-Gõi, M.-F., Martinez, P., Urrego, D., Bout-Roumazeilles, V., Desprat, S., and Marlon, J. R.: Orbital-scale climate forcing of grassland burning in southern africa, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, 5069-5073, 2013.
18. d'Errico, F. and Henshilwood, C.: Additional evidence for bone technology in the southern African middle stone age, J. Human Evolut., 52, 142-163, 2007. (Pubitemid 46170204)
19. Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Borckmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., de Noblet, N., Duvel, J.-P., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L., Fichefet, T., Flavoni, S., Friedlingstien, P., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A., Lefebvre, M.-P., Lefevre, F., Levy, C., Li, Z., Lloyd, J., Lott, F., Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schultz, M., Swingedouw, D., Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth system model with an emphasis on changes between CMIP3 and CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123-2165, 2013.
20. Dupont, L.: Orbital scale vegetation change in Africa, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 3589-3602, 2011.
21. Fichefet, T. and Morales-Maqueda, A.-M.: Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 12609-12646, 1997. (Pubitemid 27520406)
22. Fichefet, T. and Morales-Maqueda, A.-M.: Modelling the influence of snow accumulation and snow-ice formation on the seasonal cycle of the antarctic sea-ice cover, Clim.e Dynam., 15, 251-268, 1999. (Pubitemid 29285952)
23. Gasse, F.: Hydrological changes in the African tropics since the Last Glacial Maximum, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 19, 189-211, 2000. (Pubitemid 30018293)
24. Giglio, L., Randerson, J. T., van der Werf, G. R., Kasibhatla, P. S., Collatz, G. J., Morton, D. C., and DeFries, R. S.: Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products, Biogeosciences, 7, 1171-1186, doi:10.5194/bg-7-1171-2010, 2010.
25. Harrison, S. and Prentice, C.: Climate and CO2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum : analysis based on palaeovegetationdata, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations, Global Change Biol., 9, 983-1004, 2003. (Pubitemid 36938393)
26. Hastie, T. and Tibshirani, R.: Generalized Additive Models, London: Chapman and Hall, 1990.
27. Henshilwood, C., d'Errico, F., Yates, R., Jacobs, Z., Tribolo, C., Duller, G., Mercier, N., Sealy, J., Valladas, H.,Watts, I., andWintle, A.: Emergence of modern human behavior: middle stone age engravings from South Africa, Science, 295, 1278-1280, 2002. (Pubitemid 34157617)
28. Henshilwood, C., d'Errico, F., and Watts, I.: Engraved ochres from the middle stone age levels at Blombos Cave. South Africa, J. Human Evolut., 57, 27-47, 2009.
29. Hourdin, F., Musat, I., Bony, S., Braconnot, P., Codron, F., Dufresne, J.-L., Fairhead, L., Filiberti, M.-A., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Krinner, G., LeVan, P., Li, Z., and Lott, F.: The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection, Clim. Dynam., 27, 787-813, 2006. (Pubitemid 44550673)
30. Jacobs, Z., Roberts, R., Galbraith, R., Deacon, H., Grün, R., Mackay, A., Mitchell, P., Vogelsang, R., and Wadley, L.: Ages for the middle Stone age of southern Africa: implications for human behavior and dispersal, Science, 322, 733-735, 2008.
31. Jolly, D. and Haxeltine, A.: Effect of low glacial atmospheric CO2 on tropical African montane vegetation, Science, 276, 786-788, 1997.
32. Kageyama, M., Mignot, J., Swingedouw, D., Marzin, C., Alkama, R., and Marti, O.: Glacial climate sensitivity to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: results from the IPSL model, Clim. Past, 5, 551-570, doi:10.5194/cp-5-551-2009, 2009.
33. Kageyama, M., braconnot, P., Bopp, L., Caubel, A., Foujols, M.-A., Guilyardi, E., Khodri, M., Lloyd, J., Lombard, F., Mariotti, V., Marti, O., Roy, T., and Woillez, M.-N.: Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum climate simulations with the IPSL model-part I: comparing IPSL-CM5A to IPSL-CM4. Clim. Dynam., 40, 2447-2468, 2013a.
34. Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Bopp, L., Mariotti, V., Roy, T., Woillez, M.-N., Caubel, A., Foujols, M.-A., Guilyardi, E., Khodri, M., Lloyd, J., Lombard, F., and Marti, O.: Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum climate simulations with the IPSL model: part II: model-data comparisons. Clim. Dynam., 40, 2469-2495, 2013b.
35. Köhler, P., Joos, F., Gerber, S., and Knutti, R.: Simulated changes in vegetation distribution, land carbon storage, and atmospheric CO2 in response to a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Clim. Dynam., 25, 689-708, 2005. (Pubitemid 41829830)
36. Krinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., J., O., Polcher, J., friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., and Prentice, I. C.: A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB1015, doi:10.1029/2003GB002199, 2005. (Pubitemid 40801466)
37. Kristen, I., Fuhrmann, A., Thorpe, J., Röhl, U., Wilkes, H., and Oberhänsli, H.: Hydrological changes in southern Africa over the last 200 Ka as recorded in lake sediments from the Tswaing impact crater, South Afr. J. Geol., 110, 311-326, 2007. (Pubitemid 350111720)
38. Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A., and Levrard, B.: A long term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth, Astronom. Astrophys., 428, 261-285, 2004.
39. Levavasseur, G., Vrac, M., Roche, D. M., Paillard, D., Martin, A., and Vandenberghe, J.: Present and LGM permafrost from climate simulations: contribution of statistical downscaling, Clim. Past, 7, 1225-1246, doi:10.5194/cp-7-1225-2011, 2011.
40. Liu, Y., Stanturf, J., and Goodrick, S.: Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate, Forest Ecol. Manage., 259, 685-697, 2010.
41. Madec, G., Delecluse, P., Imbard, M., and Lévy, C.: OPA version 8.1 Ocean general circulation model reference manual, 91 pp., Number 11, Note du Pole de Modélisation, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France, 1998.
42. Martin, A., Vrac, M., Paillard, D., Dumas, C., and Kageyama, M.: Statistical-dynamical downscaling for Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity, submitted, 2011.
43. Marzin, C. and Braconnot, P.: The role of the ocean feedback on Asian and African monsoon variations at 6 kyr and 9.5 kyr BP, Compt. Rendus Geosci., 341, 643-655, 2009a.
44. Marzin, C. and Braconnot, P.: Variations of Indian and African monsoons induced by insolation changes at 6 and 9.5 kyr BP, Clim. Dynam., 33, 215-231, 2009b.
45. Masson, V., Braconnot, P., Jouzel, J., de Noblet, N., Cheddadi, R., and Marchal, O.: Simulation of intense monsoons under glacial conditions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1747-1750, 2000. (Pubitemid 32040472)
46. Mucina, L., Rutherford, M., and Powrie, L.: Vegetation Map of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland, 2nd Ed., South African National Biodiversity Institute Pretoria, 2007.
47. New, M., Lister, D., Hulme, M., and Makin, I.: A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas, Clim. Res., 21, 1-25, 2002. (Pubitemid 34838195)
48. Oghaito, R. and Abe-Ouchi, A.: The role of ocean thermodynamics and dynamics in Asian summer monsoon changes during the Mid-Holocene, Clim. Dynam., 29, 39-50, 2007. (Pubitemid 46746420)
49. Partridge, T., Demenocal, P., Lorentz, S., Paiker, M., and Vogel, J.: Orbital forcing of climate over South Africa: a 200,000-year rainfall record from the Pretorian Saltpan, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 16, 1125-1133, 1997. (Pubitemid 28159094)
50. Petit, J., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N., Barnola, J., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V., Lorius, C., Pepin, L., Ritz, C., Saltzman, E., and Stievenard, M.: Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica, Nature, 399, 429-436, 1999. (Pubitemid 29258841)
51. Pfeiffer, M., Spessa, A., and Kaplan, J. O.: A model for global biomass burning in preindustrial time: LPJ-LMfire (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 643-685, doi:10.5194/gmd-6-643-2013, 2013.
52. Prentice, I. C. and Harrison, S. P.: Ecosystem effects of CO2 concentration: evidence from past climates, Clim. Past, 5, 297-307, doi:10.5194/cp-5-297-2009, 2009.
53. Rutherford, M.: Categorization of biomes, Vegetation of Southern Africa, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 91-98, ISBN 0-521-57142-1, 1997.
54. Saporta, G.: Probabilités, Analyse des données et statistiques, Editions Technip, 1990.
55. Scholes, R.: Savanna, in: Vegetation of Southern Africa, edited by: Cowling, R. M., Richardson, D. M., and Pierce, S. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 258-277, 1997.
56. Schwartz, G.: Estimating the dimension of a model, The Ann. Statist., 6, 461-464, 1978.
57. Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplan, J., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M., Thonicke, K., and Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model, Global Change Biol., 9, 161-185, 2003. (Pubitemid 36294628)
58. Spahni, R., Chappellaz, J., Stocker, T., Loulergue, L., Hausammann, G., Kawamura, K., Flückiger, J., Schwander, J., Raynaud, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Jouzel, J.: Atmospheric Methane and Nitrous Oxide of the Late Pleistocene from Antarctic Ice Cores, Science, 310, 1317-1321, 2005. (Pubitemid 41698861)
59. Thonicke, K., Spessa, A., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Dong, L., and Carmona-Moreno, C.: The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model, Biogeosciences, 7, 1991-2011, doi:10.5194/bg-7-1991-2010, 2010.
60. Titshall, L., O'Connor, T., and Morris, C.: Effect of long-term exclusion of fire and herbivory on the soils and vegetation of sour grassveld, Afr. J. Range Forage Sci., 17, 70-80, 2000.
61. Townsend, J., Carroll, M., DiMiceli, C., Sohlberg, R., Hansen, M., and DeFries, R.: Vegetation Contiuous Fields MOD44B, [2001-2010] Percent Tree Cover, Collection 5, Version 1, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, 2001, downloaded 8 February 2013, provided on 0.05 degree Climate Modeling Grid in NetCDF by the Integrated Climate Data Center (ICDC, http://icdc.zmaw.de) University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany, 2011
62. Turner, R., Roberts, N., and Jones, M.: Climatic pacing of Mediterranean fire histories from lake sedimentary microcharcoal, Global Planet. Change, 63, 317-324, 2008.
63. Urrego, D., Sanchez-Goñi, M.-F., Daniau, A.-L., Lechevrel, S., and Hanquiez, V.: Increased aridity in southwestern africa during the last-interglacial warmest periods, in progress, 2013.
64. Valcke, S.: OASIS3 user guide (prism-2-5), PRISM report no 2. Tech. rep. TR/CMGC/06/73, CERFACS, Toulouse, France, 60, 2006.
65. Vrac, M., Marbaix, P., Paillard, D., and Naveau, P.: Non-linear statistical downscaling of present and LGM precipitation and temperatures over Europe, Clim. Past, 3, 669-682, doi:10.5194/cp-3-669-2007, 2007. (Pubitemid 351269950)
66. Waelbroeck, C., Labeyrie, L., Michel, E., Duplessy, J.-C., Mc-Manus, J., Lambeck, K., Balbon, E., and Labracherie, M.: Sealevel and deep water temperature changes derived from benthic foraminifera isotopic records, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 295-305, 2002. (Pubitemid 34067518)
67. Wang, P., Clemens, S., Beaufort, L., Braconnot, P., Ganssen, G., Jian, Z., Kershaw, P., and Sarnthein, M.: Evolution and variability of the Asian monsoon system: state of the art and outstanding issues, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 24, 595-629, 2005. (Pubitemid 40328447)
68. Westfall, R., Everson, C., and Everson, T.: The vegetation of the protected plots at Thabamhlope Research Station, Afr. J. Botany, 2, 15-25, 1983. (Pubitemid 14272053)
69. White, F.: The vegetation of Africa: a descriptive memoir to accompany the Unesco/AETFAT/UNSO vegetation map of Africa, (Natural Resources Research: 20). Paris: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 356 p., 1983.
70. Wilby, R., Wigley, T., Conway, D., Jones, P., Hewitson, B., Main, J., and Wilks, D.: Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison of methods,Water Resour. Res., 34, 2995-3008, 1998. (Pubitemid 28494932)
71. Woillez, M.-N., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Viovy, N., and Mancip, M.: Impact of CO2 and climate on the Last Glacial Maximum vegetation: results from the ORCHIDEE/IPSL models, Clim. Past, 7, 557-577, doi:10.5194/cp-7-557-2011, 2011.
72. Woillez, M.-N., Kageyama, M., Combourieu-Nebout, N., and Krinner, G.: Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions, Biogeosciences, 10, 1561-1582, doi:10.5194/bg-10-1561-2013, 2013.
73. Wood, S.: Generalized Additive Models: A introduction with R, Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, 2006.
74. Ziegler, M., Simon, M., Hall, I., Barker, S., Stringer, C., and Zahn, R.: Development of middle stone age innovation linked to rapid climate change, Nat. Commun., 4, 1905, doi:10.1038/ncomms2897, 2013.