Human birth seasonality: Latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 281, Issue 1783, 2014, Pages

  Martinez Bakker, Micaela ^a   Bakker, Kevin M ^a   King, Aaron A ^a,b   Rohani, Pejman ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

^b NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH   (United States)

Author keywords

Birth; Disease; Latitude; Measles; Seasonality

Indexed keywords

CHILD HEALTH; DISEASE INCIDENCE; DISEASE PREVALENCE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIOLOGY; LATITUDE; SEASONALITY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ANATOMY AND HISTOLOGY; ANIMAL; BONE; BONE DEVELOPMENT; BONE MARROW; CYTOLOGY; EVOLUTION; FISH; FOSSIL; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; HUMERUS; MICRO-COMPUTED TOMOGRAPHY;

ANATOMY AND HISTOLOGY; ANIMALS; BIOLOGICAL EVOLUTION; BONE AND BONES; BONE DEVELOPMENT; BONE MARROW; CYTOLOGY; FISHES; FOSSILS; GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT; HUMERUS; OSTEOGENESIS; X-RAY MICROTOMOGRAPHY;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 84902669039     PISSN: 09628452     EISSN: 14712954     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.2438     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Soper HE. 1929 The interpretation of periodicity in disease prevalence. J. R. Stat. Soc. 92, 34-73. (doi:10.2307/2341437)
2. London WP, Yorke JA. 1973 Recurrent outbreaks of measles, chickenpox and mumps. I. Seasonal variation in contact rates. Am. J. Epidemiol. 98, 453-468.
3. Fine PE, Clarkson JA. 1986 Seasonal influences on pertussis. Int. J. Epidemiol. 15, 237-247. (doi:10. 1093/ije/15.2.237)
4. Rohani P, Keeling MJ, Grenfell BT. 2002 The interplay between determinism and stochasticity in childhood diseases. Am. Nat. 159, 469-481. (doi:10.1086/339467)
5. Metcalf CJE, Bjørnstad ON, Grenfell BT, Andreasen V. 2009 Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen. Proc. R. Soc. B 276, 4111-4118. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2009.1058)
6. Gear HS. 1949 The virus of poliomyelitis: its distribution and methods of spread. J. R. Soc. Promot. Health 69, 149-153. (doi:10.1177/ 146642404906900301)
7. Rohani P, Earn DJ, Grenfell BT. 1999 Opposite patterns of synchrony in sympatric disease metapopulations. Science 286, 968-971. (doi:10.1126/science.286.5441.968)
8. Török T, Kilgore P, Clarke M, Holman R, Bresee J, Glass R. 1997 Visualizing geographic and temporal trends in rotavirus activity in the United States, 1991 to 1996. Pediatr. Infect. Dis. J. 16, 941-946. (doi:10.1097/00006454-199710000-00007)
9. The Lancet. 1899 The influence of schools in accentuating the spread of certain infectious diseases. Lancet 153, 184-185, 256, 330-331. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(01)62949-0)
10. Eames KTD, Tilston NL, Brooks-Pollock E, Edmunds WJ. 2012 Measured dynamic social contact patterns explain the spread of H1N1V influenza. PLoS Comput. Biol. 8, e1002425. (doi:10.1371/journal. pcbi.1002425)
11. Keeling MJ, Rohani P. 2008 Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
12. Hemmes JH, Winkler KC, Kool SM. 1962 Virus survival as a seasonal factor in influenza and poliomyelitis. Antonie van Leeuwenhoek 28, 221-233. (doi:10.1007/BF02538737)
13. Shaman J, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Lipsitch M. 2010 Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States. PLoS Biol. 8, e1000316. (doi:10.1371/journal.pbio. 1000316)
14. Lowen AC, Mubareka S, Steel J, Palese P. 2007 Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog. 3, 1470-1476. (doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.0030151)
15. Mabaso MLH, Craig M, Ross A, Smith T. 2007 Environmental predictors of the seasonality of malaria transmission in Africa: the challenge. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 76, 33-38.
16. Linthicum KJ, Anyamba A, Tucker CJ, Kelley PW, Myers MF, Peters CJ. 1999 Climate and satellite indicators to forecast rift valley fever epidemics in Kenya. Science 285, 397-400. (doi:10.1126/science.285.5426.397)
17. Bharti N, Tatem aJ, Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Djibo A, Grenfell BT. 2011 Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery. Science 334, 1424-1427. (doi:10.1126/science. 1210554)
18. Dowell SF. 2001 Seasonal variation in host susceptibility and cycles of certain infectious diseases. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 7, 369-374. (doi:10. 3201/eid0703.010301)
19. Cannell JJ, Zasloff M, Garland CF, Scragg R, Giovannucci E. 2008 On the epidemiology of influenza. Virol. J. 5, 1-12. (doi:10.1186/1743-422X-5-29)
20. Bolzoni L, Dobson AP, Gatto M, De Leo GA. 2008 Allometric scaling and seasonality in the epidemics of wildlife diseases. Am. Nat. 172, 818-828. (doi:10.1086/593000)
21. Altizer S, Hochachka WM, Dhondt AA. 2004 Seasonal dynamics of mycoplasmal conjunctivitis in eastern north American house finches. J. Anim. Ecol. 73, 309-322. (doi:10.1111/j.0021-8790.2004.00807.x)
22. Hosseini PR, Dhondt AA, Dobson A. 2004 Seasonality and wildlife disease: how seasonal birth, aggregation and variation in immunity affect the dynamics of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in house finches. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 271, 2569-2577. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2004.2938)
23. Duke-Sylvester SM, Bolzoni L, Real LA. 2011 Strong seasonality produces spatial asynchrony in the outbreak of infectious diseases. J. R. Soc. Interface 8, 817-825. (doi:10.1098/rsif.2010.0475)
24. Begon M, Telfer S, Smith MJ, Burthe S, Paterson S, Lambin X. 2009 Seasonal host dynamics drive the timing of recurrent epidemics in a wildlife population. Proc. R. Soc. B 276, 1603-1610. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2008.1732)
25. Earn DJ, Rohani P, Bolker BM, Grenfell BT. 2000 A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics. Science 287, 667-670. (doi:10.1126/ science.287.5453.667)
26. Pitzer VE et al. 2009 demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics. Science 325, 290-294. (doi:10. 1126/science.1172330)
27. Broutin H, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Miller MA, Rohani P. 2010 Impact of vaccination and birth rate on the epidemiology of pertussis: a comparative study in 64 countries. Proc. R. Soc. B 277, 3239-3245. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2010.0994)
28. Stone L, Olinky R, Huppert A. 2007 Seasonal dynamics of recurrent epidemics. Nature 446, 533-536. (doi:10.1038/nature05638)
29. Forrest J, Miller-Rushing AJ. 2010 Toward a synthetic understanding of the role of phenology in ecology and evolution. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 365, 3101-3112. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0145)
30. Villerme P. 1831 De la Distribution par Mois des Conceptions. Ann. Hyg. Publ. Industr. Soc. 5, 55-155.
31. Quetelet A. 1869 Memoire sur les lois des Naissance et de la Mortalitie a Bruxelles. In Nouveau Memoires de l'Academie Royaledes Sciences et Belles Lettres de Bruxelles, pp. 495-512. L'Acadåmie Royale de Bruxelles et de l'Université Louvain.
32. Macfarlane V. 1970 Seasonality of conception in human populations. Biometeorology 4, 167-182.
33. Condon RG, Scaglion R. 1982 The ecology of human birth seasonality. Hum. Ecol. 10, 495-511. (doi:10. 1007/BF01531169)
34. Lam DA, Miron JA. 1994 Global patterns of seasonal variation in human fertility. Ann. NY Acad. Sci. 709, 9-28. (doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.1994.tb30385.x)
35. Cowgill UM. 1966 The season of birth in man. Man 1, 232-240. (doi:10.2307/2796349)
36. Becker S. 1991 Seasonal patterns of births and conception throughout the world. Adv. Exp. Med. Biol. 286, 59-72. (doi:10.1007/978-1-4684-5913-5_6)
37. Rosenberg HM. 1966 seasonal variation of births United States, 1933-63. Natl. Center Health Stat. 21, 1-59.
38. Bronson FH. 1995 Seasonal variation in human reproduction: environmental factors. Q. Rev. Biol. 70, 141-164. (doi:10.1086/418980)
39. Seiver DA. 1985 Trend and variation in the seasonality of US fertility, 1947-1976. Demography 22, 89-100. (doi:10.2307/2060988)
40. Moos WS, Randall W. 1995 Patterns of human reproduction and geographic latitude. Int. J. Biometeorol. 38, 84-88. (doi:10.1007/ BF01270664)
41. United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2010 United States vital statistics. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/vsus.htm. (accessed 1 March 2010)
42. United States Census Bureau. 2010 United States population estimates: historical estimates. http:// www.census.gov/popest/data/historical/index.html. (accessed 1 March 2010)
43. United Nations. 2012 Worldwide births. http://data. un.org. (accessed 1 May, 2012)
44. Torrence C, Compo GP. 1998 A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 79, 61-78. (doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079, 0061: APGTWA.2.0.CO;2)
45. King AA, Ionides EL, Bretó CM, Ellner S, Kendall B, Wearing H, Ferrari MJ, Lavine M, Reuman DC. 2010 POMP: statistical inference for partially observed Markov processes (R package).
46. Finkenstadt BF, Grenfell BT. 2000 Time series modelling of childhood diseases: a dynamical systems approach. J. R. Stat. Soc. C (Appl. Stat.) 49, 187-205. (doi:10.1111/1467-9876.00187)
47. Bjørnstad ON, Finkenstadt BF, Grenfell BT. 2002 Dynamics of measles epidemics: estimating scaling of transmission rates using a time series SIR model. Ecol. Monogr. 72, 169-184.
48. He D, Earn DJD. 2007 Epidemiological effects of seasonal oscillations in birth rates. Theor. Popul. Biol. 72, 274-291. (doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2007.04.004)
49. Dorélien AM. 2013 A time to be born: birth seasonality in sub-Saharan Africa. University of Michigan Population Studies Center Research Report Series Report 13-785, 1-60.
50. Lam D, Miron JA. 1987 The seasonality of births in human populations. University of Michigan Population Studies Center Research Report Series 87-114, 1-61.
51. Lam DA, Miron JA. 1991 Seasonality of births in human populations. Soc. Biol. 38, 51-78.
52. Rojansky N, Brzezinski A, Schenker JG. 1992 Seasonality in human reproduction: an update. Hum. Reprod. 7, 735-745.
53. Levine RJ, Mathew RM, Chenault CB, Brown MH, Hurtt ME, Bentley KS, Mohr KL, Working PK. 1990 Differences in the quality of semen in outdoor workers during summer and winter. N. Engl. J. Med. 323, 12-16. (doi:10.1056/NEJM199007053230103)
54. Spira A. 1991 Epidemiologic aspects of the relationship between temperature and male reproduction. Adv. Exp. Med. Biol. 286, 49-56. (doi:10.1007/978-1-4684-5913-5_5)
55. Bobak M, Gjonca A. 2001 The seasonality of live birth is strongly influenced by socio-demographic factors. Hum. Reprod. 16, 1512-1517. (doi:10. 1093/humrep/16.7.1512)
56. Randall W. 1987 A statistical analysis of the annual pattern in birth in the USA, 1967 to 1976. J. Interdiscip. Cycle Res. 18, 179-191. (doi:10.1080/ 09291018709359944)
57. Morley D. 1969 Severe measles in the tropics. I. Brit. Med. J. 1, 297-300. (doi:10.1136/bmj.1.5639.297)
58. Bauch CT, Earn DJD. 2003 Transients and attractors in epidemics. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 270, 1573-1578. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2003.2410)
59. Dorélien AM, Ballestros S, Grenfell BT. 2013 Impact of birth seasonality on dynamics of acute immunizing infections in sub-Saharan Africa. PLoS ONE 8, e75806. (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0075806)