Coupling vector-host dynamics with weather geography and mitigation measures to model rift valley fever in Africa

Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena

Volumn 9, Issue 2, 2014, Pages 161-177

  McMahon, B H ^a   Manore, C A ^b,c   Hyman, J M ^b   Labute, M X ^d   Fair, J M ^a  

^a LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^b Tulane University   (United States)

^c TULANE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Epidemiology; Geography; Mitigation; Network model; Rift valley fever; Vaccination; Weather

Indexed keywords

ANIMALS; COMPUTER VIRUSES; DISEASE CONTROL; EPIDEMIOLOGY; LANDFORMS; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION STATISTICS; RAIN; VACCINES; VIRUSES; WEATHERING;

GEOGRAPHY; MITIGATION; NETWORK MODELING; RIFT VALLEY; VACCINATION;

DISEASES;

EID: 84902142471     PISSN: 09735348     EISSN: 17606101     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/20149211     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. S.F. Andriamandimby, A.E. Randrianarivo-Solofoniaina, E.M. Jeanmaire, L. Ravololomanana, L.T. Razafimanantsoa. Rift Valley Fever during Rainy Seasons, Madagascar, 2008 and 2009. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 16 (2010), no. 6, 963-970.
2. A. Anyamba, J.P. Chretien, J. Small, C.J. Tucker, P.B. Formenty. Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak. PNAS. USA, 106 (2009), no. 3, 955-959.
3. Y. Ba, D. Diallo, I. Dia, M. Diallo. Feeding pattern of Rift Valley Fever virus vectors in Senegal. Implications in the disease epidemiology. Bull Soc Pathol Exot. 99 (2006), 283-9. (Pubitemid 44935725)
4. Y. Ba, D. Diallo, C.M.F. Kebe, I. Dia, M. Diallo. Aspects of bioecology of two rift valley fever virus vectors in Senegal (West Africa): Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes (Diptera: Culicidae). Journal of Medical Entomology. 42 (2005), 739-750. (Pubitemid 41375479)
5. B.H. Bird, T.G. Ksiazek, S.T. Nichol, N.J. Maclachlan. Rift Valley fever virus. J. Am. Vet. Med. Assoc. 234 (2009), 883-893.
6. H. Boshra, G. Lorenzo, N. Busquets, A. BrunA. Rift Valley Fever: Recent Insights into Pathogenesis and Prevention. J. of Virol. 85 (2011), 6098-6105.
7. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN)/Columbia University, and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). 2005. Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3): Population Density Grid, Future Estimates. Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/gpw-v3- population-density-future-estimates. Accessed October, 2010.
8. V. Chevalier, S. De La Rocque, T. Baldet, L. Vial, F. Roger. Epidemiological processes involved in the emergence of vector-borne diseases: West Nile fever, Rift Valley fever, Japanese encephalitis and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever. Revue scientifique et technique. 23 (2004), 535-555. (Pubitemid 40180983)
9. V. Chevalier, M. Pepin, L. Plee, R. Lancelot. Rift Valley fever-a threat for Europe Eurosurveillance. 15 (2010), no. 10, 18-28.
10. N.C. Chitnis, J.M. Hyman, C.A. Manore. Modelling vertical transmission in vector-borne diseases with applications to Rift Valley fever. J. of Biol. Dyn. 7 (2013), 11-40.
11. J.M. Depinay, C.M. Mbogo, G. Killeen, B. Knols, J. Beier. A simulation model of African Anopheles ecology and population dynamics for the analysis of malaria transmission. Malaria Journal. 3 (2004), 29.
12. M. Diallo, P. Nabeth, K. Ba, A.A. Sall, Y. Ba. Mosquito vectors of the 1998-1999 outbreak of Rift Valley Fever and other arboviruses (Bagaza, Sanar, Wesselsbron and West Nile) in Mauritania and Senegal. Medical and Veterinary Entomology. 19 (2005), 119-126. (Pubitemid 40772438)
13. M.F. Ducatez, C.M. Olinger, A.A. Owoade, S. De Landtsheer, W. Ammerlaan. Multiple introductions of H5N1 in Nigeria-Phylogenetic analysis reveals that this deadly virus first arrived in Africa from different sources. Nature. 442 (2006), 37-37.
14. A. Evans, F. Gakuya, J.T. Paweska, M. Rostal, L. Akoolo. Prevalence of antibodies against Rift Valley fever virus in Kenyan wildlife. Epidemiology and Infection. 136 (2008), 1261-1269.
15. M.B. Crabtree, R.C. Kading, J.P. Mutebi, J.J. Lutwama, B.R. Miller. Identification of host blood from engorged mosquitoes collected in western Uganda using cytochrome oxidase I gene sequences. J. Wildlife Dis. 49 (2013), 611-626.
16. C.A. Manore, B.R. Beechler. Interepidemic persistence of Rift Valley fever: vertical transmission or cryptic cycling Transboundary and Emerging Diseases; 2013, DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12082.
17. FAO, Geonetwork. Predicted global cattle density (2005), corrected for unsuitability, adjusted to match observed totals. avalable at http://www.fao.org/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.showid=12713, accessed October, 2010.
18. F. Fenner, D.H. Henderson, I. Arita, Z. Jezek, I.A. Ladnyi. Smallpox and its Eradication World Health Organization, Geneva (1988) (freely available at http://biotech.law.lsu.edu/blaw/bt/smallpox/who/red-book/index.htm).
19. H. Gaff, C. Burgess, J. Jackson, T. Niu, Y. Papelis. Mathematical model to assess the relative effectiveness of Rift Valley Fever countermeasures. Int. J. Artificial Life Res. 2 (2011), no. 2, 1-18.
20. D. Gao, C. Cosner, R.S. Cantrell, J.C. Beier, S. Ruan. Modeling the Spatial Spread of Rift Valley Fever in Egypt. Bul. Math. Biol. 75 (2013), 523-542.
21. T.P. Gargan 2nd, P.G. Jupp, R.J. Novak. Panveld oviposition sites of floodwater Aedes mosquitoes and attempts to detect transovarial transmission of Rift Valley fever virus in South Africa. Med Vet Entomol. 2 (1998), 231-236.
22. P. Goswami, U.S. Murty, S.R. Mutheneni, A. Kukkuthady, S.T. Krishnan. A model of malaria epidemiology involving weather, exposure, and transmission applied to North East India. PLOS ONE 7 (2012), e49713.
23. F. Graw, T. Leitner, R.M. Ribeiro. Agent-based and phylogenetic analyses reveal how HIV-1 moves between risk groups: injecting drug users sustain the heterosexual epidemic in Latvia. Epidemics. 4 (2012), no. 2, 104-116.
24. M. Hansen, R. DeFries, J.R.G. Townshend, R. Sohlberg. Global land cover classification at 1km resolution using a decision tree classifier. Int. J. Rem. Sens. 21 (2000), 1331-1365. Accessed from http://www.landcover.org/data/ landcover/in October, 2010.
25. A. Hightower, C. Kinkade, P.M. Nguku, A. Anyangu, D. Mutonga, J. Omolo, M. Kariuki Njenga, D.R. Feikin, D. Schnabel, M. Ombok, R.F. Breiman. Relationship of Climate, Geography, and Geology to the Incidence of Rift Valley Fever in Kenya during the 2006-2007 Outbreak. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 86 (2012), no. 2, 373-2380.
26. R.M. Holdo, R.D. Holt, J.M. Fryxell. Opposing rainfall and plant nutritional gradients best explain the wildebeest migration in the Serengeti. Am. Nat. 173 (2009), 431-445.
27. H. Hoogstraal, J.M. Meegan, G.M. Khalil, F.K. Adham. Rift-valley fever epizootic in Egypt 1977-78.2. ecological and entomological studies. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 73 (1979), no. 6, 624-629. (Pubitemid 10158922)
28. R. Hughes-Fraire, A. Hagerman, B. McCarl, H. Gaff. Rift Valley Fever: An Economic Assessment of Agricultural and Human Vulnerability. presented at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Corpus Christi, TX, February 5-8, 2011.
29. T. Ikegami. Molecular biology and genetic diversity of Rift Valley fever virus. Antiviral Research. 95 (2012), 293-310.
30. T.R. Kasari, D.A. Carr, T.V. Lynn, J.T. Weaver. Evaluation of pathways for release of Rift Valley fever virus into domestic ruminant livestock, ruminant wildlife, and human populations in the continental United States. Javma-Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association. 232 (2008), no. 4, 514-529. (Pubitemid 351427741)
31. T.M. Lund, B. Lindtjorn. Cattle and climate in Africa: How climate variability has influenced national cattle holdings from 1961-2008. PeerJ. 1, (2013), e55, DOI 10.7717/peerj55.
32. C.A. Manore, B.H. McMahon, J.M. Fair, J.M. Hyman, M. Brown. Disease properties, geography, and mitigation strategies in a simulation spread of rinderpest across the United States. Vet. Res. 42 (2011), 1-55.
33. V. Martin, V. Chevalier, P.N. Ceccato, A. Anyamba, L. De Simone, J. Lubroth, S. de La Rocque, J. Domenech. The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift Valley fever. Revue Scientifique et Technique. 27 (2008), 413-426.
34. R. Metras, L.M. Collins, R.G. White, S. Alonso, V. Chevalier. Rift Valley Fever Epidemiology, Surveillance, and Control: What Have Models Contributed Vector-borne and Zoonotic Diseases. 11 (2011), 761-771.
35. MMWR, Rift Valley fever outbreak. Kenya, November, 2006-January, 2007. M.a.M. Report. (2007), 73-76.
36. S.C. Mpeshe, H. Haario, J.M. Tchuenche. A mathematical model of Rift Valley Fever with human host. Acta Biotheoretica. 59 (2011), 3-4, 231-250.
37. B. Pattnaik, A.K. Pateriya, R. Khandia, C. Tosh, S. Nagarajan. Phylogenetic analysis revealed genetic similarity of the H5N1 avian influenza viruses isolated from HPAI outbreaks in chickens in Maharashtra, India with those isolated from swan in Italy and Iran in 2006. Current Science. 91, (2006), 77-81. (Pubitemid 44147461)
38. M. Pepin, M. Bouloy, B.H. Bird, A. Kemp, J. Paweska. Rift Valley fever virus (Bunyaviridae: Phlebovirus): an update on pathogenesis, molecular epidemiology, vectors, diagnostics and prevention. Vet. Res. 41, no. 6, (2010), 61.
39. B. Schaeffer, B. Mondet, S. Touzeau. Using a climate dependent matrix model to predict mosquito abundance: Application to Aedes (Stegomyia) africanus and Aedes (Diceromyia) furcifer (Diptera: Culicidae), two main vectors of the yellow fever virus in West Africa. Infection Genetics and Evolution. 8 (2008), no. 4, S45-S45.
40. J. Shaman, J.F. Day. Reproductive Phase Locking of Mosquito Populations in Response to Rainfall Frequency. PLoS ONE. 2 (2007), no. 3, e331.
41. V. Soti, A. Tran, P. Degenne, V. Chevalier, D.L. Seen. Combining hydrology and mosquito population models to identify the drivers of Rift Valley Fever emergence in semi-arid regions of West Africa PLOS Negl. Trop. Diseases. 6 (2012), e1795.
42. M.J. Tildesley, N.J. Savill, D.J. Shaw, R. Deardon, S.P. Brooks. Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK Nature. 440 (2006), no. 7080, 83-86. (Pubitemid 43336271)
43. M.J. Tildesley, T.A. House, M.C. Bruhn, R.J. Curry, M. O'Neil. Impact of spatial clustering on disease transmission and optimal control. PNAS. USA, 107 (2010), 1041-1046.
44. M.J. Turell, C.A. Rossi, C.L. Bailey. Effect of extrinsic incubation-temperature on the ability of Aedes taeniorhynchus and Culex pipiens to transmit Rift Valley fever virus. Am. J. of Trop. Med. and Hyg. 34 (1985), no. 6, 1211-1218. (Pubitemid 16204464)
45. M.J. Turell, D.J. Dohm, C.N. Mores, L. Terracina, D.L. Wallette Jr. Potential for North American mosquitoes to transmit Rift Valley fever virus. J. Am. Mosq. Cont. Ass. 24 (2008), no. 4, 502-507.
46. USAID, Food security and nutrition working group, East Africa cross-border trade bulletin. October-December 2011. (2012), 1-4.
47. WHO. Rift Valley Fever Factsheet. 2013; Available from: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs207/en/.
48. P. Xie, P.A. Arkin. Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bul. Am. Met. Soc. 78 (1997), no. 11, 2539-2558. Data set available at http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/africa/index.php and accessed in October, 2010.
49. L. Xue, H.M. Scott, L.W. Cohnstaedt, C. Scoglio. A network-based meta-population approach to model Rift Valley fever epidemics. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 306 (2012), 129-144.