A network-based meta-population approach to model Rift Valley fever epidemics

Journal of Theoretical Biology

Volumn 306, Issue , 2012, Pages 129-144

  Xue, Ling ^a   Scott, H Morgan ^b   Cohnstaedt, Lee W ^c   Scoglio, Caterina ^a  

^a Kansas State University   (United States)

^b KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE   (United States)

Author keywords

Deterministic model; Meta population; Reproduction number; Rift Valley fever (RVF); Weighted networks

Indexed keywords

DISEASE SPREAD; DISEASE VECTOR; EPIDEMIC; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; METAPOPULATION; MOSQUITO; NUMERICAL MODEL;

ARTICLE; ASIA; COMPARTMENT MODEL; CONTROLLED STUDY; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; EUROPE; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; HUMAN; LIVESTOCK; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MORBIDITY; MORTALITY; MOSQUITO; NONHUMAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RIFT VALLEY FEVER; RIFT VALLEY FEVER BUNYAVIRUS; SOUTH AFRICA; SPECIES DIFFERENCE; WESTERN HEMISPHERE;

AEDES; ANIMALS; CULEX; EPIDEMICS; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; INSECT VECTORS; LIVESTOCK; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; RIFT VALLEY FEVER; RIFT VALLEY FEVER VIRUS; SOUTH AFRICA;

SOUTH AFRICA;

ANIMALIA; RIFT VALLEY FEVER VIRUS;

EID: 84861134090     PISSN: 00225193     EISSN: 10958541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.04.029     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Anyamba A., Chretien J.P., Small J., Tucker C.J., Formenty P.B., Richardson J.H., Britch S.C., Schnabel D.C., Erickson R.L., Linthicum K.J. Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 2009, 106:955-959.
2. Anyamba A., Chretien J.P., Small J., Tucker C.J., Linthicum K.J. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007. Int. J. Health Geogr. 2006, 5:60.
3. Anyamba A., Linthicum K.J., Mahoney R., Tucker C.J. Mapping potential risk of Rift Valley fever outbreaks in African savannas using vegetation index time series data. Photogramm. Eng. Remote Sensing 2002, 68:137-145.
4. Anyamba A., Linthicum K.J., Tucker C.J. Climate-disease connections: Rift Valley fever in Kenya. Cad. Saude Publica 2001, 17(Suppl.):133-140.
5. Balcan D., Colizza V., Goncalves B., Hu H., Ramasco J.J., Vespignani A. Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 2009, 106:21484-21489.
6. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 2007. Rift Valley fever outbreak-Kenya, November 2006-January 2007. Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep. 56, 73-76.
7. Chevalier V., Lancelot R., Thiongane Y., Sall B., Diaite A., Mondet B. Rift Valley fever in small ruminants, Senegal, 2003. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 2005, 11:1693-1700.
8. Chowdhury S.R., Scoglio C., Hsu W. Simulative modeling to control the foot and mouth disease epidemic. Procedia Computer Science 2010, 1:2261-2270.
9. Clements A.C., Pfeiffer D.U., Martin V., Pittliglio C., Best N., Thiongane Y. Spatial risk assessment of Rift Valley fever in Senegal. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2007, 7:203-216.
10. Cohen J. Random evolutions and the spectral radius of a non-negative matrix. Math. Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc. 1979, 86:345-350.
11. Davies F.G., Martin V. Recognizing Rift Valley fever. Vet. Ital. 2006, 42:31-53.
12. Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, 2010. Rift Valley Fever. 〈〉. Accessed November 10, 2010. http://www.defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/farmanimal/diseases/atoz/riftvalleyfever/index.htm.
13. Department of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries of Republic of South Africa, 2010. Livestock Number 96 to Date. 〈〉. Accessed September 26, 2010. http://www.nda.agric.za/docs/statsinfo/LivestokNo96toDate.xls.
14. Diekmann O., Heesterbeek J.A.P. Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases 2000, Wiley, Chichester, (Chapter 5).
15. Diekmann O., Heesterbeek H., Metz H. The legacy of Kermack and McKendrick. Epidemic Models: Their Structure and Relation to Data 1995, 95-115. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. D. Mollison (Ed.).
16. Disease BioPortal. 〈〉. Accessed November 23, 2010. http://fmdbioportal.ucdavis.edu.
17. van den Driessche P., Watmough J. Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math. Biosci. 2002, 180:29-48.
18. Florida Department of Health, 2010. Rift Valley Fever. 〈〉. Accessed November 30, 2010. http://www.doh.state.fl.us/environment/medicine/arboviral/RiftValleyFever.html.
19. Gaff H.D., Hartley D.M., Leahy N.P. An epidemiological model of Rift Valley fever. Electron. J. Diff. Eqns. 2007, 2007:1-12.
20. Gong H., Degaetano A.T., Harrington L.C. Climate-based models for West Nile Culex mosquito vectors in the Northeastern US. Int. J. Biometeorol. 2010, 55:435-446.
21. Gubler D.J. The global emergence/resurgence of arboviral diseases as public health problems. Arch. Med. Res. 2002, 33:330-342.
22. Heffernan J., Smith R., Wahl L. Perspectives on the basic reproductive ratio. J. R. Soc. Interface 2005, 2:281.
23. Kasari T.R., Carr D.A., Lynn T.V., Weaver J.T. Evaluation of pathways for release of Rift Valley fever virus into domestic ruminant livestock, ruminant wildlife and human populations in the continental United States. J. Am. Vet. Med. Assoc. 2008, 232:514-529.
24. Keeling J., Rohani P. Modeling Infectious Disease in Humans and Animals 2008, Princeton University Press.
25. Kim B.N., Gordillo L.F., Kim Y. A model for the transmission dynamics of Orientia tsutsugamushi among its natural reservoirs. J. Theor. Biol. 2010, 266:154-161.
26. Konrad S.K., Miller S.N., Reeves W.K. A spatially explicit degree-day model of Rift Valley fever transmission risk in the continental United States. GeoJournal 2010.
27. Linacre E.T. A simple formula for estimating evaporation rates in various climates using temperature data alone. Agric. Meteorol. 1977, 18:409-424.
28. Linthicum K.J., Anyamba A., Britch S.C., Chretien J.P., Erickson R.L., Small J., Tucker C.J., Bennett K.E., Mayer R.T., Schmidtmann E.T., Andreadis T.G., Anderson J.F., Wilson W.C., Freier J.E., James A.M., Miller R.S., Drolet B.S., Miller S.N., Tedrow C.A., Bailey C.L., Strickman D.A., Barnard D.R., Clark G.G., Zou L. A Rift Valley fever risk surveillance system for Africa using remotely sensed data: potential for use on other continents. Vet. Ital. 2007, 43:663-674.
29. Linthicum K.J., Davies F.G., Kairo A., Bailey C.L. Rift Valley fever virus (family Bunyaviridae, genus Phlebovirus). Isolations from Diptera collected during an inter-epizootic period in Kenya. J. Hyg. 1985, 95:197-209.
30. Martin V., Chevalier V., Ceccato P., Anyamba A., Simone L.D., Lubroth J., de La Rocque S., Domenech J. The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift Valley fever. Rev. Sci. Tech. 2008, 27:413-426.
31. Mpeshe S., H.Haario H., Tchuenche J. A mathematical model of Rift Valley fever with human host. Acta Biotheor. 2011, 59(3-4):231-250.
32. National Climatic Data Center, 2010. NOAA Satellite and Information Service. 〈〉. Accessed November 22, 2010. http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/country.
33. National Institute for Communicable Diseases, 2010. Interim Report on the Rift Valley Fever (RVF) Outbreak in South Africa. 〈〉. Accessed November 23, 2010. http://www.nicd.ac.za/?page=rift_valley_fever_outbreak&id=94.
34. Newton E., Reiter P. A model of the transmission of dengue fever with an evaluation of the impact of ultra-low volume (ULV) insecticide applications on dengue epidemics. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 1992, 47:709-720.
35. Olivier, C.G., 2004. An Analysis of the South African Beef Supply Chain: From Farm to Folk. Master's Thesis. University of Johannesburg. South Africa.
36. Sellers R.F., Pedgley D.E., Tucker M.R. Rift Valley fever, Egypt 1977: disease spread by windborne insect vectors. Vet. Rec. 1982, 110:73-77.
37. South Africa Department of Health, 2010. Press Releases 2010. 〈〉. Accessed November 30, 2010. http://www.doh.gov.za/docs/pr/.
38. Statistics South Africa, 2009. Agricultural Census (Census of Commercial Agriculture), 2007. 〈〉. Accessed November 22, 2010. http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/statsdownload.asp?PPN=P1102SCH=4534.
39. Statistics South Africa, 2010a. Domestic Tourism Survey 2009. 〈〉. Accessed November 23, 2010. http://www.statsonline.gov.za/publications/statsdownload.asp?PPN=P0352.1SCH=4702.
40. Statistics South Africa, (2010b). Mid-year Population Estimates. 〈〉. Accessed November 21, 2010. http://www.statsonline.gov.za/publications/P0302/P03022010.pdf.
41. Swanson J.C., Morrow-Tesch J. Cattle transport: historical, research, and future perspectives. J. Anim. Sci. 2001, 79:E102-E109.
42. Weather Underground, 2010 〈〉. Accessed November 20, 2010. http://www.wunderground.com/.
43. Woods C.W., Karpati A.M., Grein T., McCarthy N., Gaturuku P., Muchiri E., Dunster L., Henderson A., Khan A.S., Swanepoel R., Bonmarin I., Martin L., Mann P., Smoak B.L., Ryan M., Ksiazek T.G., Arthur R.R., Ndikuyeze A., Agata N.N., Peters C.J., Force W.H.O.H.F.T. An outbreak of Rift Valley fever in northeastern Kenya, 1997-1998. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 2002, 8:138-144.
44. World Animal Health Information Database, 2010. Summary of Immediate Notifications and Follow-ups-2010. 〈〉. Accessed October 14, 2010. http://www.oie.int/wahis/public.php?page=disease-immediate-summary.
45. World Health Organization, 2010. Rift Valley Fever. 〈〉. Accessed November 22, 2010. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs207/en/.
46. Zeller H.G., Fontenille D., Traore-Lamizana M., Thiongane Y., Digoutte J.P. Enzootic activity of Rift Valley fever virus in Senegal. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 1997, 56:265-272.