Energy technology expert elicitations: An application to natural gas turbine efficiencies

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 86, Issue , 2014, Pages 177-187

  Bistline, John E ^a  

^a Stanford University   (United States)

Author keywords

Expert elicitations; Natural gas; Technology R D; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

GAS TURBINES; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS;

ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR; ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES; EXPERT ELICITATION; FUTURE PERFORMANCE; GAS TURBINE EFFICIENCY; TECHNICAL PROGRESS; TECHNOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTY; UNCERTAINTY;

NATURAL GAS;

ENERGY EFFICIENCY; HYDROCARBON TECHNOLOGY; NATURAL GAS; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT; TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT; TURBINE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84901930364     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.11.003     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Kann A., Weyant J.P. Approaches to performing uncertainty analysis in large-scale energy/environmental policy models. Environ. Model. Assess. 2000, 5:29-46.
2. Weyant J.P. Introduction and overview: EMF-19 alternative technology strategies for climate change policy. Energy Econ. 2004, 26:501-515.
3. Morgan M.G., Henrion M. Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis 1990, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
4. Keeney R.L., von Winterfeldt D. On the uses of expert judgment on complex technical problems. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manag. 1989, 36:83-86.
5. Söderholm P., Sundqvist T. Empirical challenges in the use of learning curves for assessing the economic prospects of renewable energy technologies. Renew. Energy 2007, 32:2559-2578.
6. Nemet G.F. Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics. Energy Policy 2006, 34:3218-3232.
7. Martino J.P. Using precursors as leading indicators of technological change. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 1987, 32:341-360.
8. Rai V., Victor D.G., Thurber M.C. Carbon capture and storage at scale: lessons from the growth of analogous energy technologies. Energy Policy 2010, 38:4089-4098.
9. O'Hagan A., Buck C.E., Daneshkhah A., Eiser J.R., Garthwaite P.H., Jenkinson D.J., Oakley J.E., Rakow T. Uncertain Judgments: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities 2006, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, West Sussex, UK.
10. Staël von Holstein C.S., Matheson J.E. A Manual for Encoding Probability Distributions 1979, SRI International, Palo Alto, CA.
11. Tversky A., Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases 1982, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, A. Tversky (Eds.).
12. Kuhnert P.M., Martin T.G., Griffiths S.P. A guide to eliciting and using expert knowledge in Bayesian ecological models. Ecol. Lett. 2010, 13:900-914.
13. Gathwaite P.H., Kadane J.B., O.A. Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 2005, 100:680-700.
14. Meyer M.A., Booker J.M. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide 2001, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, PA.
15. Hoffman R.R., Shadbolt N.R., Burton A.M., Klein G. Eliciting knowledge from experts: a methodological analysis. Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 1995, 62:129-158.
16. Hogarth R.M. Cognitive processes and the assessment of subjective probability distributions. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1975, 70:271-289.
17. Ayyub B.M. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks 2001, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.
18. O'Hagan A. Eliciting expert beliefs in substantial practical applications. J. R. Stat. Soc. 1998, 47:21-35.
19. Hora S.C., von Winterfeldt D. Nuclear waste and future societies: a look into the deep future. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 1997, 56:155-170.
20. Morgan M.G., Keith D.W. Subjective judgments by climate experts. Environ. Sci. Technol. 1995, 29:468A-476A.
21. Abu Taha R., Daim T. Multi-criteria applications in renewable energy analysis, a literature review. Research and Technology Management in the Electricity Industry: Methods, Tools, and Case Studies 2013, Springer, London, UK. T. Daim, T. Oliver, J. Kim (Eds.).
22. Wang J.-J., Jing Y.-Y., Zhang C.-F., Zhao J.-H. Review on multi-criteria decision analysis aid in sustainable energy decision-making. Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev. 2009, 13:2263-2278.
23. Lee A.H.I., Chen H.H., Kang H.-Y. Multi-criteria decision making on strategic selection of wind farms. Renew. Energy 2009, 34:120-126.
24. Linkov I., Satterstrom F.K., Kiker G., Batchelor C., Bridges T., Ferguson E. From comparative risk assessment to multi-criteria decision analysis and adaptive management: recent developments and applications. Environ. Int. 2006, 32:1072-1093.
25. NRC Reactor safety study: an assessment of accident risks in US commercial nuclear power plants. Technical Report, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission 2010.
26. Cooke R.M. Uncertainty analysis comes to integrated assessment models for climate change. . .and conversely. Clim. Chang. 2013, 117(3):467-479.
27. 2 capture systems. Energy Policy 2006, 34:3765-3772.
28. Curtright A.E., Morgan M.G., Keith D.W. Expert assessments of future photovoltaic technologies. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2008, 42:9031-9038.
29. Abdulla A., Azevedo I.L., Morgan M.G. Expert elicitation of the cost of small modular nuclear reactors. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2013, (forthcoming).
30. Bosetti V., Catenacci M., Fiorese G., Verdolini E. The future prospect of PV and CSP solar technologies: an expert elicitation survey. Technical Report, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2012.
31. Fiorese G., Catenacci M., Verdolini E., Bosetti V. Advanced biofuels: future perspectives from an expert elicitation survey. Technical Report, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2012.
32. Anadon L.D., Bunn M., Chan G., Chan M., Jones C., Kempener R., Lee A., Logar N., Narayanamurti V. Transforming US energy innovation. Technical Report, Harvard Kennedy School, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 2011.
33. Baker E., Chon H., Keisler J. Advanced Nuclear Power: Combining Economic Analysis with Expert Elicitations to Inform Climate Policy. Technical Report, University of Massachusetts Amherst 2008.
34. Baker E., Chon H., Keisler J. Carbon capture and storage: combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy. Clim. Chang. 2009, 96:379-408.
35. Baker E., Chon H., Keisler J. Advanced solar R&D: combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy. Energy Econ. 2009, 31:S37-S49.
36. Baker E., Chon H., Keisler J. Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: combining expert views about prospects for advancement. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2010, 77:1139-1146.
37. Baker E., Keisler J. Cellulosic biofuels: expert views on prospects for advancement. Energy 2011, 36:595-605.
38. Jenni K.E., Baker E.D., Nemet G.F. Expert elicitations of energy penalties for carbon capture technologies. Int. J. Greenhouse Gas Control 2013, 12:136-145.
39. Anadon L.D., Bosetti V., Bunn M., Catenacci M., Lee A. Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2012, 46:11497-11504.
40. Morgan M.G., Dowlatabadi H., Henrion M., Keith D., Lempert R., McBride S., Small M., Wilbanks T. Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in climate decision making. Technical Report, US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2009.
41. Phillips L.D. Group elicitation of probability distributions: are many heads better than one?. Decision Science and Technology: Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards 1999, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, MA. J. Shanteau, B. Mellors, D. Schum (Eds.).
42. Morgan M.G., Fischhoff B., Bostrom A., Atman C.J. Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach 2002, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
43. Keeney R.L., von Winterfeldt D. Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manag. 1991, 38:191-201.
44. Pacala S., Socolow R. Stabilization wedges: solving the climate problem for the next 50years with current technologies. Science 2004, 305:968-972.
45. DOE/EIA Annual energy outlook 2011. Technical Report DOE/EIA-0383(2011), US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 2011.
46. Huntington H. EMF 26: changing the game? Emissions and market implications of new natural gas supplies. Technical Report EMF Report 26, Volume I, Energy Modeling Forum 2013.
47. Bistline J.E. Electric sector capacity planning under uncertainty: Shale gas and climate policy in the US 2012, in: 31st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Austin, TX.
48. Coleman J.L., Milici R.C., Cook T.A., Charpentier R.R., Kirschbaum M., Klett T.R., Pollastro R.M., Schenk C.J. Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Devonian Marcellus shale of the Appalachian basin province. Technical Report US Geological Survey Fact Sheet 20113092, US Geological Survey 2011.
49. Moniz E.J., Jacoby H.D., Meggs A.J.M. The future of national gas: interim report. Technical Report, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2010.
50. Infogroup/ORG Fracking and clean water: a survey of Americans. Technical Report, Infogroup/ORG 2010.
51. Howarth R.W., Santoro R., Ingraffea A. Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations. Clim. Chang. 2011, 106:679-690.
52. Jiang M., Griffin W.M., Hendrickson C., Jaramillo P., VanBriesen J., Venkatesh A. Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of Marcellus shale gas. Environ. Res. Lett. 2011, 6.
53. Chan G., Anadon L.D., Chan M., Lee A. Expert elicitation of cost, performance, and RD&D budgets for coal power with CCS. Energy Procedia 2011, 4:2685-2692.
54. Blanford G.J. R&D investment strategy for climate change. Energy Econ. 2009, 31:S27-S36.
55. Clemen R.T., Winkler R.L. Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis. Risk Anal. 1999, 19:187-203.
56. Seaver D.A. Assessing probability with multiple individuals: group interaction versus mathematical aggregation. Technical Report Report No. 78-3, Social Science Research Institute 1978.
57. Unger D., Herzog H. Comparative study on energy R&D performance: gas turbine case study. Technical Report, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry 1998.
58. Hannart A., Ghil M., Dufresne J.-L. Disconcerting learning on climate sensitivity and the uncertain future of uncertainty. Clim. Chang. 2013, 119(3-4):585-601.
59. Oppenheimer M., O'Neill B.C., Webster M. Negative learning. Clim. Chang. 2008, 89:155-172.
60. Craig P.P., Gadgil A., Koomey J.G. What can history teach us? A retrospective examination of long-term energy forecasts for the United States. Annu. Rev. Energy Environ. 2002, 27:83-118.