Elicitation of expert opinions for uncertainty and risks

Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks

Volumn , Issue , 2001, Pages 1-302

  Ayyub, Bilal M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 85056377703     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: None     Document Type: Book

References (220)

1. Abraham, D.M., Bernold, L.E., and Livingston, E.E., 1989. Emulation for control system analysis in automated construction. J. Comput. Civ. Eng., 3(4), 320–332.
2. Alpert, M. and Raiffa, H., 1982, A progress report on the training of probability assessors, in Kahneman et al., (Eds.), Judgement Under Uncertainty, Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 294–306.
3. Alvi, I.A. and Ayyub, B.M., 1990, Analysis of system performance under stochastic and fuzzy uncertainty, NAFIPS.
4. Amendola, A., 1986. System Reliability Benchmark Exercise, I and II, EUR-10696, EN/I, Joint Research Center of Ispra, Italy.
5. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1998. Guide for Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation, AIAA G-077-1998.
6. American Psychological Association, 1985. Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing, Washington, D.C.
7. ASME (American Society of Mechanical Engineers), 1993. The use of decision-analytic reliability methods in codes and standards work. CRTD 23, New York.
8. Ammermn, R.R. Ed. 1970. Belief, Knowledge and Truth, Charles Scribners Sons, New York.
9. Ang, A. and Tang, W., 1975. Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Vol. 1, John Wiley, New York.
10. Armstrong, D., 1973. Belief Truth and Knowledge, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
11. Austin, D.F. (Ed.), 1998. Philosophical Analysis: A Defense by Example, (Philosophical Studies Series, Vol. 39), D. Reidel Publishing Co.
12. Ayyub, B.M., 1994. The nature of uncertainty in structural engineering, in Uncertainty Modelling and Analysis: Theory and Applications, Ayyub and Gupta (Eds.), North-Holland-Elsevier Scientific Publishers, 195–210.
13. Ayyub, B.M., 1991. Systems framework for fuzzy sets in civil engineering, Int. J. Fuzzy Sets and Syst, 40(3), 491–508.
14. Ayyub, B.M., 1992. Generalized treatment of uncertainties in structural engineering. Analysis and Management of Uncertainty: Theory and Applications, Ayyub and Gupta, (Eds.) Elsevier Science Publisher, New York, 235–246.
15. Ayyub, B.M., 1992. Fault Tree Analysis of Cargo Elevators Onboard Ships, BMA Engineering Report, prepared for Naval Sea System Command, U.S. Navy, Crystal City, VA.
16. Ayyub, B.M., 1993. Handbook for Risk-Based Plant Integrity, BMA Engineering Report, prepared for Chevron Research and Technology Corporation, Richmond, CA.
17. Ayyub, B.M. and Chao, R.-J., 1998. Uncertainty modeling in civil engineering with structural and reliability applications, in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Civil Engineering, B. Ayyub (Ed.), CRC Press, 1–32, Chap. 1.
18. Ayyub, B.M. and Gupta, M.M., (Eds.), 1997. Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences: Fuzzy Logic, Statistics, and Neural Network Approach, Kluwer Academic Publisher.
19. Ayyub, B.M. and Hassan, M.H.M., 1992a. Control of construction activities: I. Systems identification, Civ. Eng. Sys., 9, 123–146.
20. Ayyub, B.M. and Hassan, M.H.M., 1992b. Control of construction activities: II. Condition assessment of attributes, Civ. Eng. Sys., 9, 147–204.
21. Ayyub, B.M. and Hassan, M.H.M., 1992c. Control of construction activities: III. A fuzzy-based controller, Civ. Eng. Sys., 9, 275–297.
22. Ayyub, B.M. and Lai, K.-L., 1992. Structural reliability assessment with ambiguity and vagueness in failure, Nav. Eng. J., 104(3), 21–35.
23. Ayyub, B.M. and McCuen, R., 1996. Numerical Methods for Engineers, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ.
24. Ayyub, B.M. and McCuen, R., 1997. Probability, Statistics and Reliability for Engineers, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 1997.
25. Ayyub, B.M. Moser 2000. Economic Consequence Assessment of Floods in the Feather River Basin of California Using Expert-Opinion Elicitation, Technical Report, Institute for Water Resources, USACE.
26. Ayyub, B.M., Gupta, M.M., and Kanal, L.N., 1992, Analysis and Management of Uncertainty: Theory and Applications, Elsevier Science Publishing Company, Inc., New York.
27. Ayyub, B.M., Riley, B.C., and Hoge, M.T., 1996. Expert Elicitation of Unsatisfactory-Performance Probabilities and Consequences for Civil Works Facilities, Technical Report, USACE, Pittsburgh District, PA.
28. Ayyub, B.M. and Haldar, A., 1984, Practical structural reliability techniques, J. Struct. Eng., 110(8), 1707–1724.
29. Ayyub, B.M., (Ed.), 1998, Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Civil Engineering, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.
30. Ayyub, B.M., Guran, A., and Haldar, A., (Eds.), 1997. Uncertainty Modeling in Vibration, Control, and Fuzzy Analysis of Structural Systems, World Scientific.
31. Bailey, K.D., 1994. Methods of Social Research, The Free Press, Maxwell Macmillan, New York.
32. Beacher, G., Expert Elicitation in Geotechnical Risk Assessment, 1999. USACE Draft Report, University of Maryland, College Park, MD.
33. Beck, L.J., 1965. The Metaphysics of Descartes, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
34. Bell, T.E. and Esch, K., 1989. The space shuttle: A case of subjective engineering, IEEE Spectrum, 42–46.
35. Bennett, J., 1990. Why is belief involuntary, Analysis, 50(2).
36. Blair, A.N. and Ayyub, B.M., 1999. Fuzzy stochastic cost and schedule risk analysis: MOB case study, Proc. Symp. Very Large Floating Structures, Elsevier, North Holland.
37. Blanchard, B.S., 1998. System Engineering Management, 2nd ed., John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York.
38. Blockley, D.I., 1975, Predicting the likelihood of structural accidents, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng., 59, Part 2, 659–668.
39. Blockley, D.I., 1979a, The calculations of uncertainty in civil engineering, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng., 67, Part 2, 313–326.
40. Blockley, D.I., 1979b, The role of fuzzy sets in civil engineering, Fuzzy Sets and Syst., 2, 267–278.
41. Blockley, D.I., 1980, The Nature of Structural Design and Safety, Ellis Horwood, Chichester, UK.
42. Blockley, D.I., Pilsworth, B.W., and Baldwin, J.F., 1983, Measures of Uncertainty, Civ. Eng. Syst., 1, 3–9.
43. Boltzmann, L., 1894, Zur Integration der Diffusionsgleichung bei variablen Diffusion-skoeffizienten, Ann. Physik, 53, Leipzig, Germany.
44. Bouissac, P., 1992. The construction of ignorance and the evolution of knowledge, University of Toronto Quarterly, 61(4), Summer
45. Bradie, M., 1986. Assessing evolutionary epistemology, Biol. and Philos., 1, 401–450.
46. Bremermann, H.J., 1962. Optimization through evolution and recombination, in Yovits, M.C., Jacobi, G.T., and Goldstein, G.D. (Eds.), Self-Organizing Systems, Spartan Books, Washington, 93–106.
47. Brown, C.B. and Yao, J.T.P., 1983, Fuzzy sets and structural engineering, J. Struct. Eng., 109(5), 1211–1225.
48. Brown, C.B., 1979, A fuzzy safety measure, J. Eng. Mech. Div., 105(EM5), 855–872.
49. Brown, C.B., 1980, The merging of fuzzy and crisp information, J. Eng. Mech. Div., 106(EM1), 123–133.
50. Brune, R., Weinstein, M., and Fitzwater, M., 1983. Peer Review Study of the Draft Handbook for Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications, NUREG/CR-1278.
51. Campbell, D.T., 1974. Evolutionary epistemology, in P.A. Schilpp (Ed.), The Philosophy of Karl Popper, Open Court Publishing, LaSalle, IL, 1,413–463.
52. Chestnut, H., 1965. Systems Engineering Tools, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York.
53. Chomsky, N., 1968. Language and Mind, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, New York.
54. Clemen, R.T., 1989. Combining forecasts: a review and annotated bibliography, Int. J. Forecasting, 5, 559–583.
55. Colglazier, E.W. and Weatherwax, R.K., 1986. Failure estimates for the space shuttle, Abstracts from the Society of Risk Analysis, annual meeting, Boston, MA, Nov. 9–12, 1986, 80.
56. Committee on Safety Criteria for Dams, 1985. Safety of Dams: Flood and Earthquake Criteria, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
57. Committee on the Safety of Existing Dams, 1983. Safety of Existing Dams, Evaluation and Improvement, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
58. Cooke, R.M., 1986. Problems with empirical bayes, Risk Analysis, 6(3), 269–272.
59. Cooke, R.M., 1991. Experts in Uncertainty, Oxford University Press, New York.
60. Dancy, J., 1985. Contemporary Epistemology, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
61. De Cooman, G., 1997, Possibility theory. Int. J. G. Sys., 25(4), 291–371.
62. De Finetti, B., 1937, English Translation in 1964 by H. Kyburg and H. Smokler (Eds.). Studies in Subjective Probabilities, Wiley, New York.
63. DeKay, M.L. and McClelland, G.H., 1993, Predicting loss of life in cases of dam failure and flash flood, Risk Analysis, 13(2), 193–205.
64. Dempster, A.P., 1976a. Upper and lower probabilities induced by multivalued mapping, Ann. Math. Stat., 38(2), 325–339.
65. Dempster, A.P., 1976b. Upper and lower probabilities inferences based on a sample from a finite univariate population, Biometrika, 54(3), 515–528.
66. Dewey, J., 1929. The Quest For Certainty, Minton, Balch and Co., New York.
67. di Carlo, C.W., 1998. Evolutionary Epistemology and the Concept of Ignorance, PhD Thesis, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
68. Dombi, J., 1982. A general class of fuzzy operators, the De Morgan class of fuzzy operators and fuzziness measures induced in fuzzy operators, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 8, 149–163.
69. Dong, W-M. and Wong, F.S., 1986a, From uncertainty to approximate reasoning: Part 1: Conceptual models and engineering interpretations, Civ. Eng. Sys., 3(3), 143–154.
70. Dong, W-M. and Wong, F.S., 1986b, From uncertainty to approximate reasoning: Part 2: Reasoning with algorithmic rules, Civ. Eng. Sys., 3(4), 192–202.
71. Dong, W-M. and Wong, F.S., 1986c, From uncertainty to approximate reasoning: Part 3: Reasoning with conditional rules, Civ. Eng. Sys., 3(5), 112–121.
72. Dretske, F., 198l. Knowledge and the Flow of Information, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
73. Driver, J., 1989. The virtues of ignorance, J. Philos., 86.
74. Dubois, D. and Prade, H., 1988. Possibility Theory. Plenum Press, New York.
75. Dubois, D. and Prade, H., 1980. On several representation of an uncertain body of evidence, in Fuzzy Information and Decision Processes, Gupta, and Sanchez (Eds.), North-Holland, New York, 167–181.
76. Duncan, R. and Weston-Smith, M., Eds. 1977. The Encyclopedia of Ignorance, Pergamon Press Ltd., New York.
77. Durant, W., 1991. Story of Philosophy: The Lives and Opinions of the World’s Greatest Philosophers, Pocket Books.
78. Eldukair, Z.A. and Ayyub, B.M., 1991. Analysis of recent U.S. structural and construction failures, J. Performance of Constructed Facilities, 5(1), 57–73.
79. Ferrell, W.R., 1985. Combining individuals judgments, in Wright, G. (Ed.), Behavioral Decision Making, Plenum, NY.
80. Ferrell, W.R., 1994. Discrete subjective probabilities and decision analysis: elicitation, calibration and combination, in Wright, G., and Ayton, P. (Eds.), Subjective Probability, John Wiley and Sons, New York.
81. Ferson, S., Root, W., and Kuhn, R., 1999. RAMAS Risk Calc: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers, Applied Biomathematics, Inc., Setauket, NY.
82. Fisher, R.A., 1930. The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
83. Frank, M.J., 1979. On the simultaneous associativity of F(x, y) and xy–F(x, y), Aequationes Mathematicae, 19(2–3), 194–226.
84. Frank, M.J., Nelson, R.B., and Schweizer, B., 1987, Best-possible bounds for the distribution of a sum — a problem of Kolmogorov, Probability Theory and Related Fields, 74, 199–211.
85. Freeman, W.M., 1969. Readings from Scientific America: Science, Conflict and Society, San Francisco.
86. French, S., 1985. Group consensus probability distributions: a critical survey, J.M. Bernardo et al. (Eds.), Bayesian Statistics, Elsevier, North Holland, 183–201.
87. Furuta, H., Fu, K.S., and Yao, J.T.P., 1985, Structural engineering applications of expert systems, Computer Aided Design, 17(9), 410–419.
88. Furuta, H., Shiraishi, N., and Yao, J.T.P., 1986, An expert system for evaluation of structural durability, Proc. 5th OMAE Symp., 1, 11–15.
89. Galanter, E., 1962. The direct measurement of utility and subjective probability, Am. J. Psych., 75, 208–220.
90. Garey, M.R. and Johnson, D.S., 1979. Computers and Intractability: A Guide to the Theory of NP-Completeness, W.H. Freeman, San Francisco.
91. Genest, C. and Zidek, J., 1986. Combining probability distributions: critique and an annotated bibliography, Stat. Sci., 1(1), 114–148.
92. Goldman, A., 1993. Philosophical Applications of Cognitive Science, Westview Press, Boulder, CO.
93. Gustafson, D.H., Shukla, R.K., Delbecq, A., and Walster, G.W., 1973. A comparative study of differences in subjective likelihood estimates made by individuals, interacting groups, delphi groups, and nominal groups, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 9, 200–291.
94. Hackett, C., 1969. The origin of speech, Scientific American 203, 88–111.
95. Haldar, A., Guran, A., and Ayyub, B.M., (Eds.), 1997. Uncertainty Modeling in Finite Element, Fatigue, and Stability of Systems, World Scientific.
96. Hall, A.D., 1962. A Method for Systems Engineering. D. Van Nostrand Company, Inc., Princeton, NJ.
97. Hall, A.D., 1989. Metasystems Methodology, A New Synthesis and Unification. Pergamon Press, New York, NY.
98. Hall, J.W., Blockley, D.I., and Davis, J.P., 1998, Uncertain inference using interval probability theory, Int. J. Approximate Reasoning, 19(3,4), 247–264.
99. Hallden, S., 1986. The Strategy of Ignorance: From Decision Logic to Evolutionary Epistemology, Library of Theoria, Stockholm.
100. Harr, M.E., 1987. Reliability-Based Design in Civil Engineering, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York.
101. Hartford, D.N.D., 1995, How Safe is Your Dam? Is it Safe Enough?, B.C. Hydro, Maintenance, Engineering, and Projects, Burnaby, BC.
102. Hartley, R.V., L., 1928, Transmission of information, The Bell Systems Technical J., 7(3), 535–563.
103. Hassan, M.H.M. and Ayyub, B.M., 1994. Multi-attribute fuzzy control of construction activities, in Uncertainty Modelling and Analysis: Theory and Applications, Ayyub and Gupta, (Eds.), North-Holland-Elsevier Scientific Publishers, 271–286.
104. Hassan, M.H.M. and Ayyub, B.M., 1993a. Multi-attribute control of construction activities, Civ. Eng. Sys., 10, 37–53.
105. Hassan, M.H.M. and Ayyub, B.M., 1993b. A fuzzy controller for construction activities, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, North-Holland, 56(3), 253–271.
106. Hassan, M.H.M. and Ayyub, B.M., 1997. Structural fuzzy control, in Uncertainty Modeling in Vibration, Control and Fuzzy Analysis of Structural Systems, Ayyub, Guran, and Haldar (Eds.), World Scientific, 179–232, Chap. 7.
107. Helmer, O., 1968. Analysis of the future: the delphi method, and the delphi method — an illustration, in J. Bright (Ed.), Technological Forecasting for Industry and Government, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
108. Henley, E.J. and Kumamoto, H., 1981. Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment, Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, NJ., 1981.
109. Higashi, M. and Klir, G.J., 1983, Measures of uncertainty and information based on possibility distributions, Int. J. Gen. Sys., 8(3), 43–58.
110. Honderich, H. (Ed.), 1995. The Oxford Companion to Philosophy, Oxford University Press, New York.
111. Horgan, John, 1996. The End of Science. Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., Reading, MA.
112. Horgan, Terry (Ed.), 1995. Vagueness. The Spindel Conference 1994. Southern J. Philos., 33 (Supplement).
113. Horwich, P., 1987. Asymmetries in Time: Problems in the Philosophy of Science, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
114. Ishizuka, M., Fu, K.S., and Yao, J.T.P., 1981, A rule-inference method for damage assessment, Preprint 81–502, St. Louis, MO.
115. Ishizuka, M., Fu, K.S., and Yao, J.T.P., 1983, Rule-based damage assessment system for existing structures, Solid Mech. Arch., 8, 99–118.
116. Itoh, S. and Itagaki, H., 1989, Application of fuzzy-Bayesian analysis to structural reliability, Proceedings 5th Int. Conf. Struct. Safety and Reliability, 3, A. H-S. Ang, M. Shinozuka, and G.I. Schuëller (Eds.), 1771–1774.
117. Johnson, O.A., 1979. Ignorance and irrationality: a study in contemporary scepticism, Philos. Res. Arch., 5,(13) 10.
118. Johnson-Laird, P., 1988. The Computer and the Mind: An Introduction to Cognitive Science. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
119. Kahn, H., 1960. On Thermonuclear War, Free Press, New York.
120. Kahn, H. and Wiener, A.J., 1967. The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation, Macmillan, New York.
121. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., and Tversky, A. (Eds.), 1982. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
122. Kaneyoshi, M., Tanaka, H., Kamei, M., and Furuta, H., 1990, Optimum cable tension adjustment using fuzzy regression analysis, 3rd WG 7.5 Working Conference on Reliability and Optimization of Structural Systems, International Federation for Information Processing, University of California, Berkeley, CA.
123. Kaufman, A. and Gupta, M.M., 1985. Introduction to Fuzzy Arithmetic, Theory and Applications, Van Nostrand Reinhold Co., New York, 1985.
124. Kaufmann, A., 1975. Introduction to the Theory of Fuzzy Subsets, Academic Press, New York, (Translated by D. L. Swanson).
125. Klir, G.J., 1969. An Approach to General Systems Theory. Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, New York.
126. Klir, G.J., 1999, On fuzzy-set interpretation of possibility theory, Fuzzy Sets and Sys., 108(3), 263–273.
127. Klir, G.J., 1985, Architecture of Systems Problem Solving, Plenum Press, New York.
128. Klir, G.J. and Cooper, J.A., 1996. On constraint fuzzy arithmetic, Proceedings 5th IEEE Int. Conf. Sys., 1693–1699.
129. Klir, G.J. and Folger, T.A., 1988. Fuzzy Sets, Uncertainty, and Information, Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
130. Klir, G.J. and Wierman, M.J., 1999. Uncertainty-based information: elements of generalized information theory. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing, Physica-Verlag, New York.
131. Klir, G.J. and Yuan, B., 1995. Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Logic, and Fuzzy Sets: Selected Papers by Lotfi Zadeh. World Scientific, Singapore, Indonesia.
132. Krueger, R.A. and Casey, M.A., 2000. Focus Groups: A Practical Guide for Applied Research. 3rd ed., Sage Publication, Thousand Oaks, CA.
133. Kumamoto, H. and Henley, E.J., 1996. Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists, 2nd ed., IEEE Press, New York.
134. Lai, K.-L. Lai, 1992. Generalized Uncertainty in Structural Reliability Assessment, PhD Dissertation, University of Maryland, College Park, MD.
135. Lai, K.-L. and Ayyub, B.M., 1994. Generalized uncertainty in structural reliability assessment, Civ. Eng. Syst., 11(2), 81–110.
136. Langer, E., 1975. The illusion of control, J. of Personality Soc. Psych., 32, 311–328.
137. Levi, I., 1977. Four types of ignorance, Soc. Res., 44, Winter.
138. Lichtenstein, S. and Newman, J.R., 1967. Empirical scaling of common verbal phrases associated with numerical probabilities, Psychonometric Science, 9(10), 563–564.
139. Lindley, D., 1970. Introduction to Probability and Statistics from a Bayesian Viewpoint, Cambridge University Press, UK.
140. Linstone, H.A. and Turoff, M., 1975. The Delphi Method, Techniques and Applications, Addison Wesley, MA.
141. Merton, R.K., Fiske, M., and Kendall, P.L., 1956. The Focused Interview, Free Press, Glencoe, IL.
142. Miller, J.G., 1978. Living Systems, McGraw Hill 1978; University of Colorado, 1995.
143. Montagu, A. and Darling, E., 1970. The Ignorance of Certainty. Harper and Row Publishers, New York.
144. Moore, R.E., 1966. Interval analysis. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
145. Moore, R.E., 1979. Methods and Applications of Interval Analysis. SIAM, Philadelphia.
146. Morgan, M.G. and Henrion, M., 1992. Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York.
147. Morris, J.M. and D’Amore, R.J., 1980. Aggregating and communicating uncertainty, Pattern Analysis and Recognition Corp., 228 Liberty Plaza, Rome, NY.
148. Murphy, A. and Daan, H., 1984. Impact of feedback and experience on the quality of subjective probability forecasts: comparison of the results from the first and second years of the Zierikzee Experiment, Monthly Weather Review, 112, 413–423.
149. Nelson, R.B., 1999. An introduction to couplas, Lecture Notes in Statistics, Vol. 139, Springer-Verlag, New York.
150. Newman, J.R., 1961. Thermonuclear war, Scientific America, March 1961.
151. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1975. Reactor Safety Study, WASH-1400, NUREG 751014.
152. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1997. Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Expert Use, prepared by the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee, NUREG/CR-6372, UCRL-ID-122160, Vol. 1 and 2, Washington, D.C.
153. Pal, S.K. and Skowron, A. (Eds.) 1999. Rough Fuzzy Hybridization. Springer-Verlag, Singapore and New York.
154. Paté-Cornell, E., 1996. Uncertainties in risk analysis and comparability of risk estimates, Society for Risk Analysis 1996 Annual Meeting, McLean, VA.
155. Pawlak, Z., 1991. Rough Sets: Theoretical Aspects of Reasoning About Data. Kluwer, Boston.
156. Piattelli-Palmarini, M., 1994. Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes of Reason Rule our Minds. John Wiley and Sons, New York (translated from Italian).
157. Ponce, V.M., 1989. Engineering Hydrology Principles and Practices, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
158. Popkin, R.H. (Ed.), 2000. The Columbia History of Western Philosophy. Mjf Books.
159. Preyssl, C. and Cooke, R., 1989. Expert judgment: subjective and objective data for risk analysis for space-flight systems, Proc. PSA 1989, Pittsburgh.
160. Ramsey, F., 1931. Truth and probability, in Braithwaite (Ed.), The Foundation of Mathematics, Kegan Paul, London, 156–198.
161. Regan, H.M., Ferson S., and Berleant, D., 2000, Equivalence of five methods for reliable uncertainty propagation, Draft paper, Applied Biomathematics, Inc., Setauket, NY.
162. Reichenbach, H., 1951. The Rise of Scientific Philosophy, University of California Press, California, 1968 edition.
163. Rice, S.A., (Ed.), 1931. Methods in Social Research, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 561.
164. Rowe, G., 1992. Perspectives on expertise in aggregation of judgments, in Wright, G., and Bolger, F. (Eds.), Expertise and Decision Support, Plenum Press, New York, 155–180.
165. Russell, B., 1975. A History of Western Philosophy, Simon and Schuster, New York.
166. Sackman, H., 1975. Delphi Critique: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process, Lexington Books, Lexington, MA.
167. Samet, M.G., 1975. Quantitative interpretation of two qualitative scales used to rate military intelligence, Human Factors, 17(2), 192–202.
168. Schweizer, B. and Sklar, A., 1983. Probability Metric Spaces, North-Holland, New York.
169. Shafer, G., 1976. A Mathematical Theory of Evidence, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
170. Shannon, C.E., 1948. The mathematical theory of communication, The Bell System Technical J., 27, 379–423
171. Shiraishi, N. and Furuta, H., 1983, Reliability analysis based on fuzzy probability, J. Eng. Mech., 109(6), 1445–1459.
172. Shiraishi, N., Furuta, H., and Sugimoto, M., 1985, Integrity assessment of structures based on extended multi-criteria analysis, Proc. 4th ICOSSAR.
173. Smithson, M., 1985. Towards a social theory of ignorance, J. Theory of Soc. Beh., 15, 151–172.
174. Smithson, M., 1988. Ignorance and Uncertainty, Springer-Verlag, New York.
175. Smithson, M., 1989. Ignorance and Uncertainty, Springer-Verlag, New York.
176. Sober, E. 1991. Core Questions in Philosophy, Macmillan Publishing Company, New York.
177. Solomon, R. and Higgins, K., 1996. A Short History of Philosophy, Oxford University Press, New York.
178. Spetzler, C.S. and Stael von Holstein, C-A.S., 1975. Probability encoding in decision analysis, Management Science, 22(3).
179. Stillings, N. et al., 1995. Cognitive Science. 2nd ed. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
180. Sugeno, M., 1974. Theory of Fuzzy Intervals and Its Applications. PhD Dissertation, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo.
181. Sugeno, M., 1977. Fuzzy measures and fuzzy integrals: a survey, in Gupta, M.M., Saridis, G.N. and Gaines, B.R. (Eds.), Fuzzy Automata and Decision Processes, North-Holland, Amsterdam and New York, 89–102.
182. Thagard, P., 1996. Mind: Introduction to Cognitive Science, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
183. Thys, W., 1987. Fault Management. Ph.D. Dissertation, Delft University of Technology, Delft.
184. Trauth, K.M., Hora, S.C. and Guzowski, R.V., 1993. Expert Judgement on Markers to Deter Inadvertent Human Intrusion into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Report SAND92-1382, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.
185. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1965. Standard Project Flood Determinations. Civil Engineer Bulletin No. 52–8, Engineering Manual EM 1110–2–1411.
186. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1982. National Program of Inspection of Nonfederal Dams, Final Report to Congress, Engineering Report ER 1110–2-106.
187. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1997. Guidelines for Risk-based Assessment of Dam Safety, Draft Engineering Pamphlet EP 1110-1-XX, CECW-ED.
188. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Policy and Procedures for Dam Safety Modifications, USBR, Denver, 1989.
189. U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, Hydrology Subcommittee, 1982. Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency. Bulletin No. 17B, USGS, Reston, VA.
190. Unger, P., 1975. Ignorance. Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK.
191. von Eckardt, B., 1993. What is Cognitive Science? MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
192. Waldrop, M.M., 1992. Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos, Simon and Schuster, New York.
193. Walley, P., 1991. Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities, Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
194. Wang, Z. and Klir, G.J., 1992. Fuzzy Measure Theory, Plenum Press, New York.
195. Weaver, W., 1948. Science and complexity, American Scientist, 36(4), 536–544.
196. Webster’s New World College Dictionary, 1995. Zane Publishing, Inc., and 1988 Simon and Schuster, Inc.
197. Weinstein, D. and Weinstein, M.A., 1978. The sociology of non-knowledge: a paradigm. in R.A. Jones (Ed.) Research in the Sociology of Knowledge, Science and Art, 1, JAI Press, New York.
198. White, G.J. and Ayyub, B.M., 1985, Reliability methods for ship structures, Nav. Eng. J., 97(4), 86–96.
199. Wiggins, J., 1985. ESA Safety Optimization Study, Hernandez Engineering, HEI-685/1026, Houston.
200. Williams, B. 1995. Philosophy and the understanding of ignorance, Diogenes, 4311(169), Spring.
201. Williamson, R. and Downs, T., 1990, Probabilistic arithmetic I: numerical methods for calculating convolutions and dependency bounds, Int. J. Approximate Reasoning, 4, 89–158.
202. Williamson, T. 1994. Vagueness. Routledge.
203. Wilson, B., 1984. Systems: Concepts, Methodologies, and Applications. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York.
204. Winkler, R.N. and Murphy, A., 1968, Good probability assessors, J. Applied Meteorology, 7, 751–758.
205. Wuketits, F.M., 1990. Evolutionary Epistemology and Its Implications for Humankind, State University of New York Press, Albany, NY.
206. Yager, R.R., 1979. On the measure of fuzziness and negation. I: membership in the unit interval, Int. J. Gen. Syst., 5(4), 189–200.
207. Yager, R.R., 1980a. On the general class of fuzzy connectives, Fuzzy Sets and Syst., 4(3), 235–242.
208. Yager, R.R., 1980b. On the measure of fuzziness and negation. II: Lattices, Information and Control, 44(3), 236–260.
209. Yager, R.R., 1983, Entropy and specificity in a mathematical theory of evidence, Int. J. Gen. Syst., 9, 249–260.
210. Yager, R.R., 1986, Arithmetic and other operations on Dempster-Shafer structures, Int. J. Man-Machine Studies, 25, 357–366.
211. Yao, J.T.P. and Furuta, H., 1986, Probabilistic treatment of fuzzy events in civil engineering, Probabilistic Eng. Mech., 1(1), 58–64.
212. Yao, J.T.P., 1979, Damage assessment and reliability evaluation of existing structures, Eng. Struct., England, 1, 245–251.
213. Yao, J.T.P., 1980, Damage assessment of existing structures, J. Eng. Mech. Div., 106(EM4), 785–799.
214. Zadeh, L.A., 1965, Fuzzy sets, Information and Control, 8, 338–353.
215. Zadeh, L.A., 1968, Probability measures of fuzzy events, J. Math. Analysis, 23, 421–427.
216. Zadeh, L.A., 1973, Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man and Cybernetics, SMC-3(1), 28–44.
217. Zadeh, L.A., 1975, The concept of linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning, Parts I, II and III, Information and Control, 8, 199–249, 301–357, 9, 43–80.
218. Zadeh, L.A., 1987, Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility, Fuzzy Sets and Syst., 1, 3–28.
219. Zadeh, L.A., Fu, K.S., Tanaka, K. and Shimara, J., 1975, Fuzzy Sets and Their Application to Cognitive and Decision Processes, Academic Press, New York.
220. Zimmerman, H.J., 1985. Fuzzy Set Theory-and its Applications. Kluwer-Nijhoff Publishing, Boston.