Decision markets for policy advice

Promoting the General Welfare: New Perspectives on Government Performance

Volumn , Issue , 2006, Pages 151-173

  Hanson, Robin ^a  

^a GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84901550828     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: None     Document Type: Chapter

References (48)

1. John W. Pratt and Richard J. Zeckhauser, Principals and Agents: The Structure of Business (Harvard Business School Press, 1991).
2. Jeffrey S. Banks and Rangarajan K. Sundaram, "Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard in a Repeated Elections Model", in Institutions, Competition and Representation, edited by William Barnett, Norman Schofield, and Melvin Hinich (Cambridge University Press, 1993).
3. David Sears and Carolyn Funk, "Self-Interest in Americans' Political Opinions", in Beyond Self-Interest, edited by J. Mansbridge (University of Chicago Press, 1990), pp. 147-70.
4. Samuel Peltzman, "An Evaluation of Consumer Protection Legislation: The 1962 Drug Amendments", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 81, no. 5(1973):1049-91.
5. Avinash K. Dixit, The Making of Economic Policy: A Transaction-Cost Perspective (MIT Press, 1997);
6. William Ascher, Why Governments Waste Natural Resources: Policy Failures in Developing Countries (Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999);
7. Joseph Stiglitz, "The Private Uses of Public Interests: Incentives and Institutions", Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 12, no. 2(1998):3-22.
8. Anthony Barker and B. Guy Peters, The Politics of Expert Advice (University of Pittsburgh Press, 1993).
9. Paul Heidhues and Johan Lagerlof, "Hiding Information in Electoral Competition", Games and Economic Behavior, vol. 42(2003):48-74;
10. Eric Maskin and Jean Tirole, "The Politician and the Judge: Accountability in Government", American Economic Review, vol. 94, no. 4(2004):1034-54.
11. Adam Brandenburger and Ben Polak, "When Managers Cover Their Posteriors: Making the Decisions the Market Wants to See", RAND Journal of Economics, vol. 27, no. 3(1996):523-41.
12. Robin Hanson, "He Who Pays the Piper Must Know the Tune", George Mason University, Department of Economics, May 2003 (http://hanson. gmu.edu/expert.pdf [July 2006]).
13. Bryan Caplan, "Rational Irrationality and the Microfoundations of Political Failure", Public Choice, vol. 107, nos. 3/4(2001):311-31.
14. Andrew Lo, "Finance: A Selective Survey", Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 95, no. 45(2000):629-635.
15. Koleman S. Strumpf and Paul W Rhode, "Historical Presidential Betting Markets", Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 18, no. 2(2004):127-41.
16. Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz, "Prediction Markets", Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 18, no. 2(2004):107-26;
17. Martin Spann and Bernd Skiera, "Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting", Management Science, vol. 49, no. 10(2003):1310-26;
18. David M. Pennock, C. L. Giles, and F. A. Nielsen, "The Real Power of Artificial Markets", Science, vol. 291(2001):987-88;
19. Robin Hanson, "Market-Based Foresight: A Proposal", Foresight Update (1990): 1-4;
20. Robin Hanson, "Could Gambling Save Science? Encouraging an Honest Consensus", Social Epistemology, vol. 9, no. 1(1995):3-33;
21. Robin Hanson, "Idea Futures", Wired, vol. 3, no. 9(1995):125.
22. Richard Roll, "Orange Juice and Weather", American Economic Review, vol. 74, no. 5(1984):861-80;
23. Stephen Figlewski, "Subjective Information and Market Efficiency in a Betting Market", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 87, no. 1(1979):75-88;
24. Pennock and colleagues, "The Real Power of Artificial Markets"; Spencer Jakab, "New ICAP-Nymex Derivatives Have U. S. Gas Market's Number", Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2004, p. 1;
25. Michael T. Maloney and J. Harold Mulherin, "The Complexity of Price Discovery in an Efficient Market: The Stock Market Reaction to the Challenger Crash", Journal of Corporate Finance, vol. 9, no. 4(2003):453-79;
26. Joyce E. Berg and Thomas A. Rietz, "Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems", Information Systems Frontiers, vol. 5, no. 1(2003):79-93;
27. Kay-Yut Chen and Charles R. Plott, "Prediction Markets and Information Aggregation Mechanism: Experiments and Application", working paper, California Institute of Technology, Social Science, 1998.
28. Robin Hanson, "Decision Markets", IEEE Intelligent Systems, vol. 14, no. 3(1999):16-19;
29. Marc Stiegler, Earthweb (New York: Baen Books, 1999);
30. Berg and Rietz, "Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems";
31. Michael Abramowicz, "Information Markets, Administrative Decisionmaking, and Predictive Cost-Benefit Analysis", University of Chicago Law Review, vol. 71, no. 3 (2004);
32. Robert W. Hahn and Paul C. Tetlock, "How Information Markets Could Change the Policy World", AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies, 2004.
33. Robin Hanson, "Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?" George Mason University, Department of Economics, September 2000 (http://hanson. gmu.edu/futarchy.pdf [July 2006]);
34. Hahn and Tetlock, "How Information Markets Could Change the Policy World."
35. Robin Hanson, "Combinatorial Information Market Design", Information Systems Frontiers, vol. 5, no. 1(2003):105-19.
36. Robin Hanson, "Designing Real Terrorism Futures", Public Choice (forthcoming, 2006).
37. Emile Servan-Schreiber and others, "Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?" Electronic Markets, vol. 14, no. 3(September 2004):243-51.
38. Robin Hanson, "Foul Play in Information Markets", in Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions in the Public and Private Sectors, edited by Bob Hahn and Philip Tetlock, AEI-Brookings Joint Project (AEI Press, 2006).
39. Robin Hanson and Ryan Oprea, "Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy", George Mason University, Department of Economics, 2004 (http://hanson.gmu.edu/biashelp.pdf [July 2006]).
40. Robin Hanson, Ryan Oprea, and David Porter, "Information Aggregation and Manipulation in an Experimental Market", Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, vol. 60(2006):449-59;
41. Colin Camerer, "Can Asset Markets Be Manipulated? A Field Experiment with Racetrack Betting", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 106(1998):457-82;
42. Wolfers and Zitzewitz, "Prediction Markets."
43. Charles Polk and others, "The Policy Analysis Market: An Electronic Commerce Application of a Combinatorial Information Market", in Proceedings of the 4th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (Association of Computing Machinery, 2003), pp. 272-73. An archive of information on PAM can be found at http://hanson. gmu.edu/policyanalysismarket.html (accessed July 2006).
44. Hanson, "Combinatorial Information Market Design. "
45. Robin Hanson, John Ledyard, and Takashi Ishikida, "An Experimental Test of Combinatorial Information Markets", George Mason University, Department of Economics, February 2005 (http://hanson.gmu.edu/testcomb.pdf [July 2006]).
46. Ron Wyden and Byron Dorgan "Wyden, Dorgan Call for Immediate Halt to Tax-Funded 'Terror Market' Scheme", July 28, 2003 (http://wyden. senate.gov/media/2003/07282003-terrormarket.html [July 2006]).
47. Michele Norris and David Welna, "Reaction to Pentagon's Proposed Terror Futures Market", All Things Considered, National Public Radio (9 p. m., July 29, 2003).
48. Philip E. Tetlock and others, "The Psychology of the Unthinkable: Taboo Tradeoffs, Forbidden Base Rates, and Heretical Counterfactuals", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, vol. 78(2000):853-70.