Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: A global sensitivity analysis

Climatic Change

Volumn 124, Issue 1-2, 2014, Pages 301-315

  Schmid, Martin ^a   Hunziker, Stefan ^a,b,c   Wüest, Alfred ^a,d  

^a SWISS FEDERAL INSTITUTE OF AQUATIC SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Switzerland)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ZURICH   (Switzerland)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BERN   (Switzerland)

^d EPFL   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; HEAT FLUX; SURFACE PROPERTIES;

DESIGN AND EVALUATIONS; EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES; GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE; LONG-WAVE RADIATION; METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES; SHORT-WAVE RADIATION; SURFACE HEAT BALANCE;

LAKES;

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE FORCING; CLIMATE MODELING; GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE; HEAT BALANCE; LAKE ECOSYSTEM; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; WATER TEMPERATURE;

EID: 84901199389     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1087-2     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Adrian R, O'Reilly CM, Zagarese H et al (2009) Lakes as sentinels of climate change. Limnol Oceanogr 54: 2283-2297.
2. Austin JA, Allen J (2011) Sensitivity of summer Lake Superior thermal structure to meteorological forcing. Limnol Oceanogr 56: 1141-1154.
3. Bogan T, Mohseni O, Stefan HG (2003) Stream temperature-equilibrium temperature relationship. Water Resour Res 39: 1245.
4. Coats R, Perez-Losada J, Schladow G, Richards R, Goldman C (2006) The warming of Lake Tahoe. Clim Chang 76: 121-148.
5. Desai AR, Austin JA, Bennington V, McKinley GA (2009) Stronger winds over a large lake in response to weakening air-to-lake temperature gradient. Nat Geosci 2: 855-858.
6. Edinger JE, Duttweiler DW, Geyer JC (1968) The response of water temperatures to meteorological conditions. Water Resour Res 4: 1137-1143.
7. Eggermont H, Heiri O, Russell J, Vuille M, Audenaert L, Verschuren D (2010) Paleotemperature reconstruction in tropical Africa using fossil Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera). J Paleolimnol 43: 413-435.
8. Fang X, Stefan H (2009) Simulations of climate effects on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and ice and snow covers in lakes of the contiguous United States under past and future climate scenarios. Limnol Oceanogr 54: 2359-2370.
9. George G (ed) (2010) The impact of climate change on European lakes. Aquat Ecol Ser 4, Springer, Dordrecht, 507 pp.
10. Henderson-Sellers B (1986) Calculating the surface energy balance for lake and reservoir modeling: a review. Rev Geophys 24: 625-649.
11. Hondzo M, Stefan H (1993) Regional water temperature characteristics of lakes subjected to climate change. Clim Chang 24: 187-211.
12. Houser JN (2006) Water color affects the stratification, surface temperature, heat content, and mean epilimnetic irradiance of small lakes. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 63: 2447-2455.
13. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
14. Jeppesen E, Mehner T, Winfield IJ et al (2012) Impacts of climate warming on the long-term dynamics of key fish species in 24 European lakes. Hydrobiologia 694: 1-39.
15. Karlsson J, Jonsson A, Jansson M (2005) Productivity of high-altitude lakes: climate effect inferred from altitude gradient. Glob Chang Biol 11: 710-715.
16. Knutti R (2008) Should we believe model predictions of future climate change? Phil Trans R Soc A 366: 4647-4664.
17. Komatsu E, Fukushima T, Harasawa H (2007) A modeling approach to forecast the effect of long-term climate change on lake water quality. Ecol Model 209: 351-366.
18. Kottek M, Grieser J, Beck C, Rudolf B, Rubel F (2006) World Map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated. Meteorol Z 15: 259-263.
19. Lehner B, Döll P (2004) Development and validation of a global database of lakes, reservoirs and wetlands. J Hydrol 296: 1-22.
20. Livingstone DM (2003) Impact of secular climate change on the thermal structure of a large temperate central European lake. Clim Chang 57: 205-225.
21. Livingstone DM (2008) A change of climate provokes a change of paradigm: taking leave of two tacit assumptions about physical lake forcing. Int Rev Hydrobiol 93: 404-414.
22. Livingstone DM, Imboden DM (1989) Annual heat balance and equilibrium temperature of Lake Aegeri, Switzerland. Aquat Sci 51: 351-369.
23. Livingstone DM, Lotter AF (1998) The relationship between air and water temperatures in lakes of the Swiss Plateau: a case study with palaeolimnological implications. J Paleolimnol 19: 181-198.
24. Livingstone DM, Lotter AF, Kettle H (2005) Altitude-dependent differences in the primary physical response of mountain lakes to climatic forcing. Limnol Oceanogr 50: 1313-1325.
25. Livingstone DM, Adrian R, Arvola L et al (2010) Regional and supra-regional coherence in limnological variables. In: George G (ed) The impact of climate change on European Lakes. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 311-337.
26. Loomis SE, Russell JM, Ladd B, Street-Perrot FA, Sinninghe Damsté JS (2012) Calibration and application of the branched GDGT temperature proxy on East African lake sediments. Earth Planet Sci Lett 357-358: 277-288.
27. Martynov A, Sushama L, Laprise R (2010) Simulation of temperate freezing lakes by one-dimensional lake models: performance assessment for interactive coupling with regional climate models. Boreal Environ Res 15: 143-164.
28. Matzinger A, Schmid M, Veljanoska-Sarafiloska E, Patceva S, Guseska D, Wagner B, Müller B, Sturm M, Wüest A (2007) Eutrophication of ancient Lake Ohrid: global warming amplifies detrimental effects of increased nutrient inputs. Limnol Oceanogr 52: 338-353.
29. Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88: 1383-1394.
30. Paerl HW, Paul VJ (2012) Climate change: links to global expansion of harmful cyanobacteria. Water Res 46: 1349-1363.
31. Peeters F, Livingstone DM, Goudsmit G-H, Kipfer R, Forster R (2002) Modeling 50 years of historical temperature profiles in a large central European lake. Limnol Oceanogr 47: 186-197.
32. Rimmer A, Gal G, Opher T, Lechinsky Y, Yacobi YZ (2011) Mechanisms of long-term variations in the thermal structure of a warm lake. Limnol Oceanogr 56: 974-988.
33. Rinke K, Yeates P, Rothhaupt K-O (2010) A simulation study of the feedback of phytoplankton on thermal structure via light extinction. Freshw Biol 55: 1674-1693.
34. Robertson DM, Ragotzkie RA (1990) Changes in the thermal structure of moderate to large sized lakes in response to changes in air temperatures. Aquat Sci 52: 360-380.
35. Schneider P, Hook SJ (2010) Space observations of inland water bodies show rapid surface warming since 1985. Geophys Res Lett 37, L22405.
36. Shimoda Y, Azim ME, Perhar G, Ramin M, Kenney MA, Sadraddini S, Gudimov A, Arhonditsis GB (2011) Our current understanding of lake ecosystem response to climate change: what have we really learned from the north temperate deep lakes? J Great Lakes Res 37: 173-193.
37. Stefan HG, Hondzo M, Fang X, Eaton JG, McCormick JH (1996) Simulated long-term temperature and dissolved oxygen characteristics of lakes in the north-central United States and associated fish habitat limits. Limnol Oceanogr 41: 1124-1135.
38. Stefan HG, Fang X, Hondzo M (1998) Simulated climate change effects on year-round water temperatures in temperate zone lakes. Clim Chang 40: 547-576.
39. Straile D, Jöhnk K, Rossknecht H (2003) Complex effects of winter warming on the physicochemical characteristics of a deep lake. Limnol Oceanogr 48: 1432-1438.
40. Trolle D, Hamilton DP, Pilditch CA, Duggan IC, Jeppesen E (2011) Predicting the effects of climate change on trophic status of three morphologically varying lakes: implications for lake restoration and management. Environ Model Softw 26: 354-370.
41. van Vliet MTH, Ludwig F, Zwolsman JJG, Weedon GP, Kabat P (2011) Global river temperatures and sensitivity to atmospheric warming and changes in river flow. Water Resour Res 47, W02544.
42. Verburg P, Hecky RE (2009) The physics of the warming of Lake Tanganyika by climate change. Limnol Oceanogr 54: 2418-2430.
43. Verschuren D (2003) Lake-based climate reconstruction in Africa: progress and challenges. Hydrobiologia 500: 315-330.
44. Weyhenmeyer GA (2008) Water chemical changes along a latitudinal gradient in relation to climate and atmospheric deposition. Clim Chang 88: 199-208.
45. Weyhenmeyer GA, Livingstone DM, Meili M, Jensen O, Benson B, Magnuson JJ (2011) Large geographical differences in the sensitivity of ice-covered lakes and rivers in the Northern Hemisphere to temperature changes. Glob Chang Biol 17: 268-275.
46. Wilhelm S, Hintze T, Livingstone DM, Adrian R (2006) Long-term response of daily epilimnetic temperature extrema to climate forcing. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 63: 2467-2477.
47. Winder M, Schindler DE (2004) Climate change uncouples trophic interactions in an aquatic ecosystem. Ecology 85: 2100-2106.
48. Winder M, Sommer U (2012) Phytoplankton response to a changing climate. Hydrobiologia 698: 5-16.
49. 2 increase in eight state-of-the-art climate models. Tellus 60A: 946-961.