A change of climate provokes a change of paradigm: Taking leave of two tacit assumptions about physical lake forcing

International Review of Hydrobiology

Volumn 93, Issue 4-5, 2008, Pages 404-414

  Livingstone, David M ^a  

^a SWISS FEDERAL INSTITUTE OF AQUATIC SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Climate change; Coherence; Lake physics; Stationarity

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; STATISTICAL METHODS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE FORCING; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; LACUSTRINE ENVIRONMENT; NOISE; PARADIGM SHIFT;

EID: 54849409481     PISSN: 14342944     EISSN: 15222632     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/iroh.200811061     Document Type: Review

References (92)

1. AMBROSETTI, W. and L. BARBANTI, 1999: Deep water warming in lakes: an indicator of climate change.- J. Limnol. 58: 1-9.
2. AMBROSETTI, W. and L. BARBANTI, 2005: Evolution towards meromixis of Lake Iseo (Northern Italy) as revealed by its stability trend. - J. Limnol. 64: 1-11.
3. ANDERSON, W. L., D. M. ROBERTSON and J. J. MAGNUSON, 1996: Evidence of recent warming and El-Niño-related variations in ice breakup of Wisconsin lakes.- Limnol. Oceanogr. 41: 815-821.
4. ARHONDITSIS, G. B., M. T. BRETT, C. L. DEGASPERI and D. E. SCHINDLER, 2004: Effects of climatic variability on the thermal properties of Lake Washington. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 49: 256-270.
5. ASSEL, R. A. and D. M. ROBERTSON, 1995: Changes in winter air temperatures near Lake Michigan, 1851-1993, as determined from regional lake-ice records.- Limnol. Oceanogr. 40: 165-176.
6. ASSEL, R. and S. RODIONOV, 1998: Atmospheric teleconnections for annual maximum ice cover on the Laurentian Great Lakes. - Internat. J. Climatol. 18: 425-442.
7. AUSTIN, J. A. and S. M. COLMAN, 2007: Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: a positive ice-albedo feedback. - Geophys. Res. Lett. 34(6), L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.
8. BAINES, S. B., K. E. WEBSTER, T. K. KRATZ, S. R. CARPENTER and J. J. MAGNUSON, 2000: Synchronous behavior of temperature, calcium, and chlorophyll in lakes of northern Wisconsin. - Ecol. 81: 815-825.
9. BENSON, B. J., J. D. LENTERS, J. J. MAGNUSON, M. STUBBS, T. K. KRATZ, P. J. DILLON, R. E. HECKY and R. C. LATHROP, 2000: Regional coherence of climatic and lake thermal variables of four lake districts in the Upper Great Lakes Region of North America.- Freshw. Biol. 43: 517-527.
10. BLENCKNER, T., M. JÄRVINEN and G. A. WEYHENMEYER, 2004: Atmospheric circulation and its impact on ice phenology in Scandinavia. - Boreal Environ. Res. 9: 371-380.
11. BLENCKNER, T., R. ADRIAN, D. M. LIVINGSTONE, E. JENNINGS, G. A. WEYHENMEYER, D. G. GEORGE, T. JANKOWSKI, M. JÄRVINEN, C. NICAONGHUSA, T. NÕGES, D. STRAILE and K. TEUBNER, 2007: Largescale climatic signatures in lakes across Europe: a meta-analysis. - Global Change Biol. 13: 1314-1326. doi: 10/1111/j. 1365-2486.2007.01364.x
12. BONSAL, B. R. and T. D. PROWSE, 2003: Trends and variability in spring and autumn 0°-isotherm dates over Canada. - Clim. Change 57: 341-358.
13. BONSAL, B. R., T. D. PROWSE, C. R. DUGUAY and M. P. LACROIX, 2006: Impacts of large-scale teleconnections on freshwater-ice break/freeze-up dates over Canada. - J. Hydrol. 330: 340-353.
14. COATS, R., J. PEREZ-LOSADA, G. SCHLADOW, R. RICHARDS and C. GOLDMAN, 2006: The warming of Lake Tahoe. - Clim. Change 76: 121-148. doi: 10/1007/s 10584-005-9006-1c
15. DE STASIO, B. T., JR., D. K. HILL, J. M. KLEINHANS, N. B. NIBBELINK and J. J. MAGNUSON, 1996: Potential effects of global climate change on small north-temperate lakes: physics, fish, and plankton. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 41: 1136-1149.
16. DOKULIL, M. T., A. JAGSCH, G. D. GEORGE, O. ANNEVILLE, T. JANKOWSKI, B. WAHL, B. LENHART, T. BLENCKNER and K. TEUBNER, 2006: Twenty years of spatially coherent deepwater warming in lakes across Europe related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 51: 2787-2793.
17. DUGUAY, C. R., T. D. PROWSE, B. R. BONSAL, R. D. BROWN, M. P. LACROIX and P. MÉNARD, 2006: Recent trends in Canadian lake ice cover. - Hydrol. Process. 20: 781-801.
18. EDINGER, J. E., D. W. DUTTWEILER and J. C. GEYER, 1968: The response of water temperatures to meteorological conditions.- Water Resour. Res. 4: 1137-1143.
19. FINDENEGG, I., 1935: Limnologische Untersuchungen im Kärntner Seengebiete. Ein Beitrag zur Kenntnis des Stoffhaushaltes in Alpenseen. - Internat. Rev. ges. Hydrobiol. Hydrograph. 32: 369-423.
20. FINDENEGG, I., 1937: Holomiktische und meromiktische Seen. - Internat. Rev. ges. Hydrobiol. Hydrograph. 35: 586-610.
21. GEORGE, D. G., J. F. TALLING and E. RIGG, 2000: Factors influencing the temporal coherence of five lakes in the English Lake District. - Freshw. Biol. 43: 449-461.
22. GEORGE, D. G., 2007: The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the development of ice on Lake Windermere - Clim. Change 81: 455-468.
23. GERTEN, D. and R. ADRIAN, 2001: Differences in the persistency of the North Atlantic Oscillation signal among lakes. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 46: 448-455.
24. HAMPTON, S. E., L. R. IZMEST'EVA, M. V. MOORE, S. L. KATZ, B. DENNIS and E. A. SILOW, 2008: Sixty years of environmental change in the world's largest freshwater lake - Lake Baikal, Siberia. - Glob. Change Biol. 14: 1947-1958. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01616.x.
25. HANSON, H. P., C. S. HANSON and B. H. YOO, 1992: Recent Great Lakes ice trends.- Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 73: 577-584.
26. HECKY, R. E. 1993: The eutrophication of Lake Victoria. - Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. 25: 39-48.
27. HECKY, R. E., F. W. B. BUGENYI, P. OCHUMBA, J. F. TALLING, R. MUGIDDE, M. GOPHEN and L. KAUFMAN, 1994: Deoxygenation of the deep water of Lake Victoria, East Africa. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 39: 1476-1481.
28. HENDRICKS FRANSSEN, H. J. and S. C. SCHERRER, 2008: Freezing of lakes on the Swiss Plateau in the period 1901-2006. - Internat. J. Climatol. 28: 421-433, doi: 10.1002/joc.1559.
29. HODGKINS, G. A., I. C. JAMESII and T. G. HUNTINGTON, 2002: Historical changes in lake ice-out dates as indicators of climate change in New England, 1850-2000. - Internat. J. Climatol. 22: 1819-1827.
30. HONDZO, M. and H. G. STEFAN, 1991: Three case studies of lakes temperature and stratification response to warmer climate. - Water Resour. Res. 27: 1837-1846.
31. HONDZO, M. and H. G. STEFAN, 1993: Regional water temperature characteristics of lake subjected to climate change. - Clim. Change 24: 187-211.
32. HUTCHINSON, G. E., 1957: A Treatise on Limnology, Vol. 1: Geography, Physics and Chemistry. - Wiley, New York, 1015 pp.
33. IMBERGER, J. and J. C. PATTERSON, 1990: Physical limnology.- Adv. Appl. Mech. 27: 303-475.
34. IMBODEN, D.M., U. LEMMIN, T. JOLLER and M. SCHURTER, 1983: Mixing processes in lakes: mechanisms and ecological relevance. - Schweiz. Z. Hydrol. 45: 11-44.
35. IMBODEN, D.M. and A. WÜEST, 1995: Mixing mechanisms in lakes.- In: LERMAN, A., D. M. IMBODEN and J. R. GAT (eds.), Physics and chemistry of lakes.- 2nd edition. Springer, Berlin. pp. 83-138.
36. JENSEN, O. P., B. J. BENSON, J. J. MAGNUSON, V. M. CARD, M. N. FUTTER, P. A. SORANNO and K. M. STEWART, 2007: Spatial analysis of ice phenology trends across the Laurentian Great Lakes region during a recent warming period. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 52: 2013-2026.
37. JOHNSON, S. L. and H. G. STEFAN, 2006: Indicators of climate warming in Minnesota: lake ice covers and snowmelt runoff. - Clim. Change 75: 421-453.
38. JONES, P. D., OSBORN, T. J. and K. R. BRIFFA, 1997: Estimating sampling errors in large-scale temperature averages. - J. Clim. 10: 2548-2568.
39. KORHONEN, J., 2006: Long-term changes in lake ice cover in Finland.- Nordic Hydrol. 37: 347-363.
40. KRATZ, T. K., P. A. SORANNO, S. B. BAINES, B. J. BENSON, J. J. MAGNUSON, T. M. FROST and R. C. LATHROP, 1998: Inter-annual synchronous dynamics in north temperate lakes in Wisconsin, USA. - In: GEORGE, D. G., J. C. JONES, P. PUNCOCHAR, D. S. REYNOLDS and D. W. SUTCLIFFE (eds.), Management of lakes and reservoirs during global climate change.- Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands. pp. 273-287.
41. KUUSISTO, E., 1987: An analysis of the longest ice observation series made on Finnish lakes. - Aqua Fenn. 17: 123-132.
42. KUUSISTO, E., 1993: Lake ice observations in Finland in the 19th and 20th century: any message for the 21st? - In: BARRY, R. G., B. E. GOODISON and E. F. LEDREW (eds.), Snow Watch '92 - Detection Strategies for Snow and Ice. - Glaciological data rep. GD-25, World Data Center A. pp. 57-65.
43. LIVINGSTONE, D. M., 1993: Temporal structure in the deep-water temperature of four Swiss lakes: a short-term climatic change indicator? - Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol., 25: 75-81.
44. LIVINGSTONE, D. M., 1997a: Break-up dates of Alpine lakes as proxy data for local and regional mean surface air temperatures. - Clim. Change 37: 407-439.
45. LIVINGSTONE, D. M., 1997b: An example of the simultaneous occurrence of climate-driven "sawtooth" deep-water warming/cooling episodes in several Swiss lakes. - Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. 26: 822-826.
46. LIVINGSTONE, D. M. and A. F. LOTTER, 1998: The relationship between air and water temperatures in lakes of the Swiss Plateau: a case study with palæolimnological implications. - J. Paleolimnol. 19: 181-198.
47. LIVINGSTONE, D. M., 1999: Ice break-up on southern Lake Baikal and its relationship to local and regional air temperatures in Siberia and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 44: 1486-1497.
48. LIVINGSTONE, D. M., A. F. LOTTER and I. R. WALKER, 1999: The decrease in summer surface water temperature with altitude in Swiss Alpine lakes: a comparison with air temperature lapse rates.- Arctic Antarctic Alpine Res. 31: 341-352.
49. LIVINGSTONE, D. M., 2000: Large-scale climatic forcing detected in historical observations of lake ice break-up. - Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. 27: 2775-2783.
50. LIVINGSTONE, D. M. and M. T. DOKULIL, 2001: Eighty years of spatially coherent Austrian lake surface water temperatures and their relationship to regional air temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 46: 1220-1227.
51. LIVINGSTONE, D. M., 2003: Impact of secular climate change on the thermal structure of a large temperate central European lake. - Clim. Change 57: 205-225.
52. LIVINGSTONE, D. M., A. F. LOTTER and H. KETTLE, 2005: Altitude-dependent differences in the primary physical response of mountain lakes to climatic forcing. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 50: 1313-1325.
53. LIVINGSTONE, D. M. and J. PADISÁK, 2007: Large-scale coherence in the response of lake surface-water temperatures to synoptic-scale climate forcing during summer. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 52: 896-902.
54. LIVINGSTONE, D. M. and M. KERNAN, in press: Regional coherence and geographical variability in the surface water temperatures of Scottish Highland lochs. - Adv. Limnol.
55. LORKE, A., K. TIETZE, M. HALBWACHS and A. WÜEST, 2004: Response of Lake Kivu stratification to lava inflow and climate warming. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 49: 778-783.
56. MAGNUSON, J. J., 1990: Long-term ecological research and the invisible present. - BioScience 40: 495-501.
57. MAGNUSON, J. J., B. J. BENSON and T. K. KRATZ, 1990: Temporal coherence in the limnology of a suite of lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. - Freshw. Biol. 23: 145-149.
58. MAGNUSON, J. J., D. M. ROBERTSON, B. J. BENSON, R. H. WYNNE, D. M. LIVINGSTONE, T. ARAI, R. A. ASSEL, R. G. BARRY, V. CARD, E. KUUSISTO, N. G. GRANIN, T. D. PROWSE, K. M. STEWART and V. S. VUGLINSKI, 2000: Historical trends in lake and river ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere.- Science 289: 1743-1746, and Errata 2001, Science 291: 254.
59. MAGNUSON, J. J., B. J. BENSON and T. K. KRATZ, 2004: Patterns of coherent dynamics within and between lake districts at local to intercontinental scales.- Boreal Environ. Res. 9: 359-369.
60. MAGNUSON, J. J., B. J. BENSON, J. D. LENTERS and D. M. ROBERTSON, 2006a: Climate-driven variability and change.- In: MAGNUSON, J. J., T. K. KRATZ and B. J. BENSON (eds.), Long-term dynamics of lakes in the landscape: long-term ecological research on north temperate lakes. - Oxford University Press, Oxford, United Kingdom. pp. 123-150.
61. MAGNUSON, J. J., T. K. KRATZ, B. J. BENSON and K. E. WEBSTER, 2006b: Coherent dynamics among lakes. - In: MAGNUSON, J. J., T. K. KRATZ and B. J. BENSON (eds.), Long-term dynamics of lakes in the landscape: long-term ecological research on north temperate lakes. - Oxford University Press, Oxford, United Kingdom. pp. 89-106.
62. MCCORMICK, M. J. and G. L. FAHNENSTIEL, 1999: Recent climatic trends in nearshore water temperatures in the St. Lawrence Great Lakes. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 44: 530-540.
63. O'REILLY, C. M., S. R. ALIN, P.-D. PLISNIER, A. S. COHEN and B. A. MCKEE, 2003: Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika, Africa. - Nature 424: 766-768.
64. PALECKI, M. A. and R. G. BARRY, 1986: Freeze-up and break-up of lakes as an index of temperature changes during the transition seasons: a case study for Finland. - J. Clim. Appl. Meteor. 25: 893-902.
65. PEETERS, F., D. M. LIVINGSTONE, G.-H. GOUDSMIT, R. KIPFER and R. FORSTER, 2002: Modeling 50 years of historical temperature profiles in a large central European lake. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 47: 186-197.
66. PEETERS, F., D. FINGER, M. HOFER, M. BRENNWALD, D. M. LIVINGSTONE and R. KIPFER, 2003: Deep-water renewal in Lake Issyk-Kul driven by differential cooling. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 48: 1419-1431.
67. QUAYLE, W. C., L. S. PECK, H. PEAT, J. C. ELLIS-EVANS and P. R. HARRIGAN, 2002: Extreme responses to climate change in Antarctic lakes. - Science 295: 645.
68. ROBERTSON, D. M., R. A. RAGOTZSKIE and J. J. MAGNUSON, 1992: Lake ice records used to detect historical and future climatic change. - Clim. Change. 21: 407-427.
69. ROBERTSON, D. M., R. H. WYNNE and W. B. CHANG, 2000: Influence of El Niño on lake and river ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere from 1900 to 1995.- Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. 27: 2784-2788.
70. RUOSTEENOJA, K., 1986: The date of break-up of lake ice as a climatic index. - Geophysica 22: 89-99.
71. SALMASO, N., 2005: Effects of climatic fluctuations and vertical mixing on the interannual trophic variability of Lake Garda, Italy.- Limnol. Oceanogr. 50: 553-565.
72. SCHINDLER, D. W., K. G. BEATY, E. J. FEE, D. R. CRUIKSHANK, E. R. DEBRUYN, D. L. FINDLAY, G. A. LINSEY, J. A. SHEARER, M. P. STAINTON and M. A. TURNER, 1990: Effects of climatic warming on lakes of the central boreal forest. - Science 250: 967-970.
73. SCHINDLER, D. W., S. E. BAYLEY, B. R. PARKER, K. G. BEATY, D. R. CRUIKSHANK, E. J. FEE, E. U. SCHINDLER and M. P. STAINTON, 1996: The effects of climatic warming on the properties of boreal lakes and streams at the Experimental Lakes Area, northwestern Ontario. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 41: 1004-1017.
74. SIMOJOKI, H., 1940: Über die Eisverhältnisse der Binnenseen Finnlands. - Ann. Acad. Sci. Fenn. A 52(6): 1-194.
75. SKINNER, W. R., 1993: Lake ice conditions as a cryospheric indicator for detecting climate variability in Canada. - In: BARRY, R. G., B. E. GOODISON and E. F. LEDREW (eds.). Snow Watch '92 - Detection Strategies for Snow and Ice. - Glaciological data rep. GD-25, World Data Center A. pp. 204-240.
76. ŠPORKA, F., D. M. LIVINGSTONE, E. STUCHLÍK, J. TUREK and J. GALAS, 2006: Water temperatures and ice cover in the lakes of the Tatra Mountains. - Biologia 61 (Suppl. 18): S77-S90.
77. STEFAN, H. G., X. FANG and M. HONDZO, 1998: Simulated climate change effects on year-round water temperatures in temperate zone lakes. - Clim. Change 40: 547-576.
78. STRAILE, D., K. JÖHNK and H. ROSSKNECHT, 2003a: Complex effects of winter warming on the physicochemical characteristics of a deep lake. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 48: 1432-1438.
79. STRAILE, D., D. M. LIVINGSTONE, G. A. WEYHENMEYER and D. G. GEORGE, 2003b: The response of freshwater ecosystems to climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. - In: HURRELL, J. W., Y. KUSHNIR, G. OTTERSEN and M. VISBECK (eds.), The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climate significance and environmental impact. - Amer. Geophys. Union, Geophys. Monogr. Ser. Vol. 134. pp. 263-279.
80. SWEERS, H. H., 1976: A nomogram to estimate the heat-exchange coefficient at the air-water interface as a function of wind speed and temperature; a critical survey of some literature - J. Hydrol. 30: 375-401.
81. TANENTZAP, A., N. D. YAN, B. KELLER, R. GIRARD, J. HENEBERRY, J. M. GUNN, D. P. HAMILTON and P. A. TAYLOR, 2008: Cooling lakes while the world warms: effects of forest regrowth and increased dissolved organic matter on the thermal regime of a temperate, urban lake. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 53: 404-410.
82. TODD, M.C. and A. W. MACKAY, 2003: Large-scale climate controls on Lake Baikal ice cover. - J. Clim. 16: 3186-3199.
83. VERBURG, P., R. E. HECKY and H. KLING, 2003: Ecological consequences of a century of warming in Lake Tanganyika. - Science 301: 505-507.
84. VOLLMER, M. K., H. A. BOOTSMA, R. E. HECKY, G. PATTERSON, J. D. HALFMAN, J. M. EDMOND, D. H. ECCLES and R. F. WEISS, 2005: Deep-water warming trend in Lake Malawi, East Africa. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 50: 727-732.
85. WEYHENMEYER, G. A., T. BLENCKNER and K. PETTERSSON, 1999: Changes of the plankton spring outburst related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 44: 1788-1792.
86. WEYHENMEYER, G. A., 2004: Synchrony in relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation and water chemistry among Sweden's largest lakes. - Limnol. Oceanogr. 49: 1191-1201.
87. WEYHENMEYER, G. A., M. MEILI and D. M. LIVINGSTONE, 2004: Nonlinear temperature response of lake ice breakup.- Geophys. Res. Lett. 31(7): L07203, doi:10.1029/2004GL019530.
88. WEYHENMEYER, G. A., M. MEILI and D. M. LIVINGSTONE, 2005: Systematic differences in the trend towards earlier ice-out on Swedish lakes along a latitudinal temperature gradient. - Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. 29: 257-260.
89. WILHELM, S., T. HINTZE, D. M. LIVINGSTONE and R. ADRIAN, 2006: Long-term response of daily epilimnetic temperature extrema to climate forcing. - Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 63: 2467-2477.
90. WILLIAMS, G. P., 1970: A note on the break-up of lakes and rivers as indicators of climate change. - Atmos. 8: 23-24.
91. WÜEST, A. and A. LORKE, 2003: Small-scale hydrodynamics in lakes. - Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech. 35: 373-412.
92. YOO, J. and P. D'ODORICO, 2002: Trends and fluctuations in the dates of ice break-up of lakes and rivers in Northern Europe: the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation. - J. Hydrol. 268: 100-112.