Once burned, twice shy? The pause of 1989

Cold War Endgame: Oral History, Analysis, Debates

Volumn , Issue , 2003, Pages 141-173

  Chollet, Derek H ^a   Goldgeier, James M ^a  

^a GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84901077148     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: None     Document Type: Chapter

References (173)

1. Keynote address by Brent Scowcroft at a Brookings Institution National Issues Forum, "The End of the Cold War and What's Happened in the Ten Years Since", December 2, 1999, available at www.brook.edu (December 1999).
2. George Bush and Brent Scowcroft, A World Transformed (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1998), 11-12.
3. Don Oberdorfer, The Turn: From the Cold War to a New Era: The United States and the Soviet Union, 1983-1990 (New York: Poseidon Press, 1991), 299.
4. Raymond L. Garthoff, The Great Transition: American-Soviet Relations and the End of the Cold War (Washington, D. C.: The Brookings Institution, 1994), 1-374;
5. Oberdorfer, The Turn, 1-326;
6. Henry Kssinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1994), 762-803.
7. Beth Fischer, "Toeing the Hardline? The Reagan Administration and Ending the Cold War", Political Science Quarterly 112, no. 3(fall 1997):477-96.
8. George P. Shultz, Turmoil and Triumph: My Years as Secretary of State (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 1993), 1138;
9. Jack F. Matlock, Jr., Autopsy on an Empire: The American Ambassador's Account of the Collapse of the Soviet Union (New York: Random House, 1996), 177-200.
10. Robert Legvold, "Lessons from the Soviet Past", in C. Richard Nelson and Kenneth Weisbrode, eds., Reversing Relations with Former Adversaries: U. S. Foreign Policy after the Cold War (Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 1998), 17-43.
11. Deborah Welch Larson, Anatomy of Mistrust: US.-Soviet Relations During the Cold War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997), 191 and 225.
12. Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976)
13. Philip E. Tetlock, "Social Psychology and World Politics", in S. Fiske, D. Gilbert, and G. Lindzey, eds., Handbook of Social Psychology, 4th ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998), 867-912.
14. Jervis, Perception and Misperception, 283-87;
15. Deborah Welch Larson, Origins of Containment (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985);
16. James M. Goldgeier, Leadership Style and Soviet Foreign Policy: Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Gorbachev (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1994);
17. Christopher Hemmer, Which Lessons Matter? American Foreign Policy Decisionmaking in the Middle East, 1979-1987 (Albany: SUNY Press, 2000).
18. Philip E. Tetlock and James M. Goldgeier, "Human Nature and World Politics: Cognition, Identity, and Influence", International Journal of Psychology 35, no. 2(2000):90.
19. William D. Jackson, "Soviet Reassessment of Ronald Reagan, 1985-1988", Political Science Quarterly 113, no. 4(winter 1998-99):617-44.
20. Gary Klein, Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1998), 141.
21. Roderick M. Kramer and Tom R. Tyler, eds., Trust in Organizations: Frontiers of Theory and Research (Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage Books, 1996).
22. Larson, Anatomy of Mistrust, 19.
23. Roy J. Lewicki and Barbara Benedict Bunker, "Developing and Maintaining Trust in Work Relationships", in Kramer and Tyler, Trust in Organizations, 120.
24. James A. Baker III, with Thomas M. De Frank, The Politics of Diplomacy: Revolution, War, and Peace, 1989-1992 (New York: G. P. Putnam's Sons, 1995), 47-60.
25. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 43-45;
26. Robert L. Hutchings, American Diplomacy and the End of the Cold War: An Insider's Account of U. S. Policy in Europe, 1989-92 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997), 27-31;
27. Richard Betts, "NATO's Mid-Life Crisis", Foreign Affairs 68, no. 2(spring 1989):37-52.
28. "Nomination of James A. Baker III", Hearings Before the Committee of Foreign Relations, U. S. Senate, January 17 and 18, 1989 (S. Hrg. 101-9), especially 16-18.
29. Michael Beschloss and Strobe Talbott, At the Highest Levels: The Inside Story of the End of the Cold War (New York: Little, Brown, 1993), 3-42
30. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 41.
31. Hutchings, American Diplomacy, 6
32. Matlock, Autopsy on an Empire, 182-185.
33. John Lewis Gaddis, "The Unexpected Ronald Reagan", in The United States and the End of the Cold War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), 119-32.
34. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 68.
35. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 68-70;
36. Hutchings, American Diplomacy, 21-47;
37. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 19-68;
38. Oberdorfer, The Turn, 328-34;
39. Philip Zelikow and Condoleezza Rice, Germany Unified and Europe Transformed: A Study in Statecraft (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1995), 24-27.
40. Douglas MacEachin, CIA Assessments of the Soviet Union: The Record Versus the Charges, Center for the Study of Intelligence Monograph, 1996, available at www.cia.gov/csi/monograph/russia/3496toc.html.
41. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 17-25, 54-55, 99-100
42. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 70, 156-58.
43. Robert M. Gates, In from, the Shadows: The Ultimate Insiders Story of Five Presidents and How They Won the Cold War (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996), 443-47, 473-75, 480-81.
44. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 69.
45. David Hoffman, "Bush Doubts Soviets Have Changed: Vice President Disagrees with Reagan's Assessments at Summit", Washington Post, June 8, 1988
46. David Broder, "Cold War 'Not Over' Bush Warns: Slackening Buildup Called a Mistake", Washington Post, June 29, 1988.
47. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 45.
48. "The Soviet Union Over the Next Four Years", Cable, Moscow 2962, February 3, 1989;
49. "Soviet Foreign Policy Over the Next Four Years", Cable, Moscow 3850, February 13, 1989;
50. "U. S.-Soviet Relations: Policy Opportunities", Cable, Moscow 4648, February 22, 1989.
51. "Cold War Endgame" at Princeton University, March 29-30, 1996.
52. Fred Greenstein and William Wohlforth, eds., Cold War Endgame: Report of a Conference Sponsored by the John Foster Dulles Program, for the Study of Leadership in International Affairs, Princeton University, and the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, Center of International Studies Monograph Series, no. 10 (Princeton: Princeton University Center of International Studies, 1997), 4.
53. "Not the Time to Reduce Defense Capabilities", American Foreign Policy Current Documents 1989
54. [hereafter cited as AFPCD 1989] (Washington: Department of State, 1990), 356.
55. George H. W. Bush to Sadruddin Aga Khan, March 13, 1989
56. All the Best, George Bush (New York: Scribner's, 1999), 416.
57. Marlin Fitzwater, Call the Briefing (Holbrook, Mass.: Adams Media, 1995), 229-43
58. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 72-73.
59. the two Directorate for Intelligence (CIA) products: "Moscow's 1989 Agenda for U. S.-Soviet Relations", CIASOV 89-10012X, February 1989
60. "Gorbachev's Foreign Policy", CIASOV 89-10014X, February 1989
61. which are available on the CD-ROM, CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947-1991, Volume II, available from the CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence.
62. The third report was a National Intelligence Estimate, "Soviet Policy Toward the West: The Gorbachev Challenge", NIE 11-4-89, April 1989
63. Benjamin Fischer, ed., At Cold War's End: US Intelligence on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, 1989-1991 (Washington, D. C.: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1999).
64. Hutchings, American Diplomacy, 25-40.
65. Zelikow and Rice, Germany Unified, 18-20
66. Greenstein and Wohlforth, Cold War Endgame, 4, 11.
67. Hutchings, American Diplomacy, 35-37;
68. Zelikow and Rice, Germany Unified, 27-28;
69. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 13-17;
70. Walter Isaacson, Kissinger (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1992), 727-29.
71. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 40-41.
72. Thomas Friedman, "Baker, Outlining World View, Assesses Plan for Soviet Bloc", New York Times, March 28, 1989;
73. Zelikow and Rice, Germany Unified, 24-25;
74. Hutchings, American Diplomacy, 39-47;
75. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 45-46, 79-81;
76. Oberdorfer, The Turn, 341-42.
77. "Our Purpose Is to Improve the Security of Europe", in AFPCD 1989, 269-74.;
78. "Positive Steps by the Soviets Would Be Met by Steps of Our Own", in AFPCD 1989, 293-96.
79. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 70;
80. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 17.
81. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 90-92.
82. "Power for Good: American Foreign Policy in the New Era", April 14, 1989, address before the American Society of Newspaper Editors, in AFPCD 1989, 5-10.
83. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 84-96;
84. Gates, In from the Shadows, 461-64;
85. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 34-42, 74-80;
86. Zelikow and Rice, Germany Unified, 29-32.
87. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 63-68;
88. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 39-40.
89. Pavel Palazchenko, My Years with Gorbachev and Shevardnadze: The Memoir of a Soviet Interpreter (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1997), 127-29.
90. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 70-72;
91. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 59-61;
92. Oberdorfer, The Turn, 336-38.
93. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 72-83;
94. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 65-67;
95. Oberdorfer, The Turn, 341-45;
96. Garthoff, Great Transition, 378-79.
97. Politics of Diplomacy, 78
98. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 60
99. Mikhail Gorbachev, Memoirs, trans. from the German edition by Wolf Jobst [which was translated into German from the Russian original by Georges Peronansky and Tatjana Varsavsky] (New York: Doubleday, 1995), 501.
100. Greenstein and Wohlforth, Cold War Endgame, 9;
101. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 92-96;
102. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 77-80.
103. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 168;
104. Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, 71-74;
105. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 93-94;
106. Oberdorfer, The Turn, 366-69.
107. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 135-42
108. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 95-99.
109. Shultz, Turmoil and Triumph, 744-45.
110. Garthoff, Great Transition, 398-400.
111. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 110-21
112. Garthoff, Great Transition, 384-85.
113. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 144-52;
114. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 109-12;
115. Oberdorfer, The Turn, 371-74;
116. Gates, In from, the Shadows, 478-80;
117. Palazchenko, My Years with Gorbachev and Shevardnadze, 145-50;
118. Carolyn McGiffert Ekedahl and Melvin A. Goodman, The Wars of Eduard Shevardnadze (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1997), 118-22.
119. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 155-56;
120. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 121-23.
121. "Statement before Senate Finance Committee", October 4, 1989, in AFPCD 1989, 374-78;
122. "Points of Mutual Advantage", October 16, 1989, 378-85;
123. "Prerequisites and Principles for Arms Control", October 23, 1989, 73-78.
124. Thomas Friedman, "U. S. Offers to Aid Gorbachev's Plan to Revamp System", New York Times, October 27, 1989.
125. Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, 154.
126. Ann Devroy, "Despite Speeches, Quayle and Baker Agree on Soviets, Aides Say", Washington Post, October 19, 1989;
127. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 122-23.
128. Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, 161-74;
129. Bush, All the Best, 445-48;
130. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 153-71;
131. Oberdorfer, The Turn, 374-86;
132. Zelikow and Rice, Germany Unified, 125-31;
133. Gorbachev, Memoirs, 510-16;
134. Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 168-71.
135. Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, 173-74.
136. Anatoly S. Chernyaev, My Six Years with Gorbachev, ed. and trans. Robert D. English and Elizabeth Tucker (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 2000), 233.
137. Excerpts from the Soviet Record from December 2, 1989, on the Malta summit. In The End of the Cold War in Europe, 1989, New Thinking and New Evidence, A Critical Oral History Conference Organized by the National Security Archive, George Washington University, May 1998.
138. Chernyaev's discussion in My Six Years with Gorbachev, 233-35
139. Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, 167.
140. Larson, Anatomy of Mistrust, 237-40
141. Jervis, Perception and Misperception.
142. Philip E. Tetlock, "Theory-Driven Reasoning about Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions?" American Journal of Political Science 43, no. 2(April 1999):335-66.
143. Baker to Shevardnadze, February 20, 1991
144. briefing book for the conference "Cold War Endgame" at Princeton University, March 29-30, 1996.
145. Robert Jervis, The Logic of Images in International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1970), 32-34.
146. Thomas Blanton, "When Did the Cold War End?" Cold War International History Project Bulletin 10(March 1998):184-91.
147. Fred Greenstein, "Reagan, Gorbachev, and the End of the Cold War", in William C. Wohlforth, ed., Witnesses to the End of the Cold War (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997), 190-219
148. "The Impact of Personality on the End of the Cold War", Political Psychology 19, no. 1(March 1998):1-16.
149. James M. Goldgeier, "Psychology and Security", Security Studies 6, no. 3(summer 1997):137-66
150. J. M. Goldgeier and P. E. Tetlock, "Psychology and International Relations Theory", Annual Review of Political Science 4(2001):67-92.
151. Charles Kupchan, The Vulnerabilty of Empire (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1994);
152. William Wohlforth, The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions During the Cold War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993);
153. "Realism and the End of the Cold War", International Security 19, no. 3(winter 1994/95):91-129.
154. Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966), 150.
155. Robert Jervis, "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma", World Politics 28, no. 2(January 1978):179-80.
156. Robert Jervis, "Drawing Inferences and Projecting Images" (paper prepared for delivery to the Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association, April 1996).
157. Oberdorfer, The Turn, 319;
158. Shultz, Turmoil and Triumph, 1108;
159. Garthoff, Great Transition, 367.
160. Greenstein, "Impact of Personality", and Personality and Politics (Chicago: Markham, 1969), 40-58.
161. David Remnick, "Winter on the Mountain", The Devil Problem, and Other Stories (New York: Vintage, 1997), 15.
162. Daniel L. Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack, "Let Us Now Praise Great Men: Bringing the Statesman Back In", International Security 25, no. 4 (spring 2001);
163. Alexander George and Juliette George, Presidential Personality and Performance (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1998).
164. Valerie Bunce, Do New Leaders Make a Difference? (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1980).
165. Larson, Anatomy of Mistrust, 224-25, 232;
166. Matlock, Autopsy on an Empire, 200;
167. Tetlock and Goldgeier, "Human Nature and World Politics", 90.
168. Larson, Origins of Containment
169. Melvyn Leffler, A Preponderance of Power: National Security, the Truman Administration, and the Cold War (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1992).
170. Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, 9.
171. Warren Christopher, In the Stream, of History (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1998), 453;
172. Strobe Talbott, The Russia Hand: A Memoir of Presidential Diplomacy (New York: Random House, 2002);
173. Harold Nicolson, Diplomacy (New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1939), 123.