Voting Islamist or voting secular? An empirical analysis of voting outcomes in Egypt's "Arab Spring"

Public Choice

Volumn 160, Issue 1-2, 2014, Pages 109-130

  Elsayyad, May ^a,b   Hanafy, Shima'a ^c  

^a MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR TAX LAW AND PUBLIC FINANCE   (Germany)

^b MGSE   (Germany)

^c PHILIPPS UNIVERSITY MARBURG   (Germany)

Author keywords

Arab Spring; Political Islam; Sequential voting; Strategic voting; Voting outcomes

Indexed keywords

EID: 84900819202     PISSN: 00485829     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11127-014-0173-3     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Akarca, A. (2010). Analysis of the 2009 Turkish election results from an economic voting perspective. European Research Studies, 13(3), 3-38.
2. Akarca, A., & Tansel, A. (2006). Economic performance and political outcomes: An analysis of the Turkish parliamentary and local election results between 1950 and 2004. Public Choice, 129(1), 77-105.
3. Akarca, A., & Tansel, A. (2007). Social and economic determinants of Turkish voter choice in the 1995 parliamentary election. Electoral Studies, 26, 633-647.
4. Alvarez, M. R., & Nagler, J. (2000). A new approach for modelling strategic voting in multiparty elections. British Journal of Political Science, 30, 57-75.
5. Baslevent, C., Kirmanoglu, H., & Senatalar, B. (2005). Empirical investigation of party preferences and economic voting in Turkey. European Journal of Political Research, 44, 547-562.
6. Battaglini, M. (2005). Sequential voting with abstention. Games and Economic Behavior, 51, 445-463.
7. Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1979). A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica, 47(5), 1287-1294.
8. Brown, G. (2011). Salafis and Sufis in Egypt. Carnegie Papers December.
9. Brown, K. M., & Zech, C. E. (1973). Welfare effects of announcing election forecasts. Public Choice, 14, 117-123.
10. Cain, B. (1978). Strategic voting in Britain. American Journal of Political Science, 22(3), 639-655.
11. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2012). Guide to Egypt's transition. http://egyptelections. carnegieendowment. org/. Accessed 30 May 2012.
12. Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS). (2006). CAPMAS population and housing census data.
13. De Paola, M., & Scoppa, V. (2013). The impact of closeness on electoral participation: Exploiting the Italian double ballot system. Public Choice,. doi: 10. 1007/s11127-013-0105-7.
14. Dekel, E., & Piccione, M. (2000). Sequential voting procedures in symmetric binary elections. Journal of Political Economy, 108, 34-55.
15. Erle, J., Wichmann, J. M., & Kjaerum, A. (2011). Egypt electoral constituencies: Socio-economic classification of Egypt's electoral constituencies. Report Danish-Egyptian Dialogue Institute. http://dedi. org. eg/wp-content/uploads/Egypt-Electoral-Constituencies. pdf. Accessed 29 Jan 2012.
16. Fauvelle-Aymar, C., & François, A. (2013). Simultaneous ballots, cost of voting and turnout: A random natural experiment. EPSA 2013 Annual General Conference Paper 225. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn. com/abstract=2224729.
17. Fidrmuc, J. (2000). Political support for reforms: Economics of voting in transition countries. European Economic Review, 44(8), 1491-1513.
18. Fleitas, D. W. (1971). Bandwagon and underdog effects in minimal-information elections. American Political Science Review, 65, 434-438.
19. Gärtner, M. (1976). Endogenous bandwagon and underdog effects in a rational choice model. Public Choice, 25(1), 83-89.
20. Genç, H., Şahin, H., & Bekmez, S. (2005). Homoeconomical behavior of Turkish electorate. Southwestern Journal of Economics, 7, 1-24.
21. Hanusch, M. (2013). Islam and democracy: A response. Public Choice, 25(3-4), 315-321.
22. Hendry, D. F. (2001). Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
23. International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES). (2011). Elections in Egypt. Analysis of the 2011 parliamentary electoral system. http://www. ifes. org/countries/Egypt. aspx. Accessed 1 June 2012.
24. Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Stegmaier, M. (2000). Economic determinants of electoral outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science, 3, 183-219.
25. Maseland, R., & van Hoorn, A. (2011). Why Muslims like democracy yet have so little of it. Public Choice, 151(3-4), 481-496.
26. Morton, R., & Williams, K. (1999). Information asymmetries and simultaneous vs. sequential voting. American Political Science Review, 93, 51-67.
27. Norris, P. (2004). Electoral engineering: Voting rules and political behavior. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
28. Palfrey, T. (2009). Laboratory experiments in political economy. Annual Review of Political Science, 12, 379-388.
29. Pew Global Attitudes Project. (2012). Egyptians remain optimistic, embrace democracy and religion in political life. www. pewresearch. org. Accessed 1 July 2012.
30. Potrafke, N. (2012). Islam and democracy. Public Choice, 151(1-2), 185-192.
31. Potrafke, N. (2013). Democracy and countries with Muslim majorities: A reply and update. Public Choice, 154(3-4), 323-332.
32. Powell, G. B., & Whitten, G. D. (1993). A cross-national analysis of economic voting: Taking account of the political context. American Journal of Political Science, 37, 391-414.
33. Ramsey, J. B. (1969). Tests of specification errors in classical linear regression analysis. Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 31(2), 350-371.
34. Rasch, B. E. (2014). Insincere voting under the successive procedure. Public Choice, 158(3-4), 499-511.
35. Rowley, C. K., & Smith, N. (2009). Islam's democracy paradox: Muslims claim to like democracy, so why do they have so little? Public Choice, 139(3-4), 273-299.
36. Said, M. (2012). Compensating differentials and the value of job security: Evidence from the Egyptian public sector. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(1), 56-69.
37. Schneider, F. (2002). Size and measurement of the informal economy in 110 countries around the world. Washington, DC: The World Bank, Rapid Response Unit.
38. Shapiro, S. S., & Wilk, M. B. (1965). An analysis of variance test for normality (for complete samples). Biometrika, 52(3-4), 591-611.
39. Simon, H. A. (1954). Bandwagon and underdog effects and the possibility of elections predictions. Public Opinion Quarterly, 18(3), 245-253.
40. Swank, O. H., & Eisinga, R. (1999). Economic outcomes and voting behaviour in a multi-party system: An application to the Netherlands. Public Choice, 101(3-4), 195-213.
41. United Nations. (1998). Statement of commitment for action to eradicate poverty. http://www. unesco. org/most/acc4pov. htm. Accessed 30 Oct 2013.
42. White, H. (1980). A heteroscedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroscedasticity. Econometrica, 48, 817-838.
43. Wickham, C. R. (2002). Mobilizing Islam: Religion, activism, and political change in Egypt. New York: Columbia University Press.
44. Wilcoxon, F. (1945). Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bulletin, 1(6), 80-83.