The making of an extreme event: Putting the pieces together

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Volumn 95, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 427-440

  Dole, Randall ^a   Hoerling, Martin ^a   Kumar, Arun ^b   Eischeid, Jon ^c   Perlwitz, Judith ^c   Quan, Xiao Wei ^c   Kiladis, George ^a   Webb, Robert ^a   Murray, Donald ^c   Chen, Mingyue ^b   Wolter, Klaus ^c   Zhang, Tao ^c  

^a EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EARTH ATMOSPHERE; METEOROLOGY;

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES; CLIMATE CONTEXT; EXTREME WEATHER; HIGH TEMPERATURE; MODEL DEVELOPMENT; NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES; ROCKY MOUNTAINS; WARM TEMPERATURES;

TIME MEASUREMENT;

EID: 84900331114     PISSN: 00030007     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00069.1     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Allen, B., cited 2012: Hard freeze hurts Michigan cherry crop. The Environment Report, Michigan Radio. [Available online at www.environmentreport. org /show.php?showID=629.]
2. Brunet, G., and Coauthors, 2010: Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1397-1406.
3. Cattiaux, J., R. Vautard, C. Cassou, P. Yiou, V. Masson- Delmotte, and F. Codron, 2010: Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704, doi:10.1029/2010GL044613.
4. Compo, and Coauthors, 2011: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1-28, doi:10.1002/qj.776.
5. Diaz, H. F., and T. W. Swetnam, 2013: The wildfires of 1910: Climatology of an extreme early twentiethcentury event and comparison with more recent extremes. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 1361-1370.
6. Dole, E. M., M. Hoerling, and S. Schubert, Eds., 2008: Reanalysis of historical climate data for key atmospheric features: Implications for attribution of causes of observed change. U.S. Climate hange Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research Rep., NOAA/NCDC, 156 pp.
7. Elwood, E. R., S. A. Temple, R. B. Primack, N. L. Bradley, and C. C. Davis, 2013: Record-breaking early flowering in the eastern United States. PLoS ONE, 8, e53788, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0053788.
8. Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 2012: Perception of climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 14 726-14 727
9. Hegerl, G. C., and Coauthors, 2007: Understanding and attributing climate change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 663-745.
10. Hoerling, M., and Coauthors, 2013: Anatomy of an extreme event. J. Climate, 26, 2811-2832.
11. Hoskins, B. J., and D. J. Karoly, 1981: The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1179-1196.
12. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-470.
13. Karoly, D. J., R. A. Plumb, and M. Ting, 1989: Examples of the horizontal propagation of quasi-stationary waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 2802-2811.
14. Katz, R. W., and B. G. Brown, 1992: Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages. Climatic Change, 21, 289-302.
15. Liebmann, B., and C. A. Smith, 1996: Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 1275-1277.
16. Linkin, M. E., and S. Nigam, 2008: The North Pacific Oscillation-west Pacific teleconnection pattern: Mature-phase structure and winter impacts. J. Climate, 21, 1979-1997. (Pubitemid 351837259)
17. Lyon, B., and R. M. Dole, 1995: A diagnostic comparison of the 1980 and 1988 U.S. summer heat wave- droughts. J. Climate, 8, 1658-1675.
18. Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1069-1079.
19. Meehl, G. A., C. Tebaldi, G. Walton, D. Easterling, and L. McDaniel, 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23701, doi:10.1029/2009GL040736.
20. Mueller, B., and S. I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 12 398-12 403.
21. Otto, F. E. L., N. Massey, G. J. van Oldenborgh, R. G. Jones, and M. R. Allen, 2012: Reconciling two approaches toattribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04702, doi:10.1029/2011GL050422.
22. Ouzeau, G., J. Cattiaux, H. Douville, A. Ribes, and D. Saint-Martin, 2011: European cold winter 2009-2010: How unusual in the instrumental record and how reproducible in the ARPEGEClimat model? Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11706, doi:10.1029/2011GL047667.
23. Peng, S., and J. S. Whitaker, 1999: Mechanisms determining the atmospheric response to midlatitude SST anomalies. J. Climate, 12, 1393-1408. (Pubitemid 29432752)
24. Plumb, R. A., 1985: On the three-dimensional propagation of stationary waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 217- 29.
25. Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Q. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1626.
26. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2013: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. J. Climate, in press, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1.
27. Sardeshmukh, P. D., G. P. Compo, and M. C. Penland, 2000: Changes of probability associated with El Niño. J. Climate, 13, 4268-4286.
28. Shapiro, M., and Coauthors, 2010: An Earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1377-1388.
29. Simmons, A. J., J. M. Wallace, and G. W. Branstator, 1983: Barotropic wave-propagation and instability, and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1363-1392. (Pubitemid 13588276)
30. Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J. Climate, 21, 2283-2296. (Pubitemid 351844078)
31. Stott, P. A., D. A. Stone, and M. T. Allen, 2004: Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432, 610-614. (Pubitemid 39626265)
32. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498.
33. Wheeler, M., and H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season realtime multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917-1932. (Pubitemid 39174485)
34. Wolter, K., and M. S. Timlin, 2011: El Niño/Southern Oscillation behaviour since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext). Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1074-1087.
35. Zhang, C., 2013: Madden-Julian oscillation: Bridging weather and climate. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 1849-1870.