Record-Breaking Early Flowering in the Eastern United States

PLoS ONE

Volumn 8, Issue 1, 2013, Pages

  Ellwood, Elizabeth R ^a   Temple, Stanley A ^b,c   Primack, Richard B ^a   Bradley, Nina L ^c   Davis, Charles C ^d  

^a Boston University   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

^c Aldo Leopold Foundation   (United States)

^d HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANGIOSPERM; ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; FLOWERING; NONHUMAN; PREDICTION; SPRING; UNITED STATES;

CLIMATE CHANGE; FLOWERS; PHYLOGENY; PLANTS; STATISTICS AS TOPIC; UNITED STATES;

MAGNOLIOPHYTA;

EID: 84872467112     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0053788     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Fitter AH, Fitter RSR, (2002) Rapid changes in flowering time in British plants. Science 296 (5573):: 1689-1691.
2. Parmesan C, Yohe G, (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421 (6918):: 37-42.
3. Amano T, Smithers RJ, Sparks TH, Sutherland WJ, (2010) A 250-year index of first flowering dates and its response to temperature changes. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences 277 (1693):: 2451-2457.
4. Wisconsin State Climatology Office (2012) Available: http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/division/data/temp/WI-08-TEMP.xls. Accessed 2012 Dec 7.
5. NOAA National Climatic Data Center (2012) State of the Climate: National Overview for March 2012, published online April, 2012. Available: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/3. Accessed 2012 Dec 7.
6. Cleland EE, Chuine I, Menzel A, Mooney HA, Schwartz MD, (2007) Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. Trends Ecol Evol 22 (7):: 357-365.
7. Cook BI, Wolkovich EM, Parmesan C, (2012) Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109 (23):: 9000-9005.
8. Schwartz MD, Hanes JM, (2010) Continental-scale phenology: warming and chilling. Int J Climatol 30 (11):: 1595-1598.
9. Piao SL, Ciais P, Friedlingstein P, Peylin P, Reichstein M, et al. (2008) Net carbon dioxide losses of northern ecosystems in response to autumn warming. Nature 451 (7174):: 49-U43.
10. Menzel A, Sparks TH, Estrella N, Koch E, Aasa A, et al. (2006) European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Global Change Biology 12 (10):: 1969-1976.
11. Parmesan C, (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 37: 637-669.
12. Post E, Forchhammer MC, (2008) Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences 363 (1501):: 2369-2375.
13. Both C, van Asch M, Bijlsma RG, van den Burg AB, Visser ME, (2009) Climate change and unequal phenological changes across four trophic levels: constraints or adaptations? J Anim Ecol 78 (1):: 73-83.
14. Forrest JRK, Thomson JD, (2011) An examination of synchrony between insect emergence and flowering in Rocky Mountain meadows. Ecol Monogr 81 (3):: 469-491.
15. Durant JM, Hjermann DO, Ottersen G, Stenseth NC, (2007) Climate and the match or mismatch between predator requirements and resource availability. Clim Res 33 (3):: 271-283.
16. Norby RJ, Hartz-Rubin JS, Verbrugge MJ, (2003) Phenological responses in maple to experimental atmospheric warming and CO2 enrichment. Global Change Biology 9 (12):: 1792-1801.
17. Norgaard Nielsen CC, Rasmussen HN, (2009) Frost hardening and dehardening in Abies procera and other conifers under differing temperature regimes and warm-spell treatments. Forestry 82 (1):: 43-59.
18. Inouye DW, McGuire AD, (1991) Effects of Snowpack on Timing and Abundance of Flowering in Delphinium nelsonii (Ranunculaceae): Implications for Climate Change. Am J Bot 78 (7):: 997-1001.
19. Giménez-Benavides L, Escudero A, Iriondo JM, (2007) Reproductive limits of a late-flowering high-mountain Mediterranean plant along an elevational climate gradient. New Phytologist 173 (2):: 367-382.
20. Thoreau HD (1854) Walden; or, Life in the Woods. Boston, MA: Ticknor and Fields.
21. Leopold A (1949) A Sand County Almanac: Oxford University Press.
22. Wright SD, Bradley NL (2008) In:Waller D, Rooney T, editors. The Vanishing Present. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. pp. 42-51.
23. Leopold A, Jones SE, (1947) A phenological record for Sauk and Dane Counties, Wisconsin, 1935-1945. Ecol Monogr 17: 81-122.
24. Primack RB, Miller-Rushing AJ, (2012) Uncovering, Collecting, and Analyzing Records to Investigate the Ecological Impacts of Climate Change: A Template from Thoreau's Concord. Bioscience 62 (2):: 170-181.
25. Bradley NL, Leopold AC, Ross J, Huffaker W, (1999) Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 96 (17):: 9701-9704.
26. Willis CG, Ruhfel B, Primack RB, Miller-Rushing AJ, Davis CC, (2008) Phylogenetic patterns of species loss in Thoreau's woods are driven by climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105 (44):: 17029-17033.
27. Miller-Rushing AJ, Primack RB, (2008) Global warming and flowering times in Thoreau's Concord: A community perspective. Ecology 89 (2):: 332-341.
28. Wolkovich EM, Cook BI, Allen JM, Crimmins TM, Betancourt JL, et al. (2012) Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change. Nature 485 (7399):: 494-497.
29. New England Regional Assessment Group (2001) New England Regional Assessment. Durham, New Hampshire, USA: University of New Hampshire, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space.
30. Willis CG, Ruhfel BR, Primack RB, Miller-Rushing AJ, Losos JB, et al. (2010) Favorable Climate Change Response Explains Non-Native Species' Success in Thoreau's Woods. PLoS One 5 (1: Article No.):: e8878.
31. Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts(2011) Wisconsin's Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptation. Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
32. Aitchison J, Dunsmore IR (1975) Statistical prediction analysis. Cambridge-New York-Melbourne: Cambridge University Press.
33. Beaubien E, Hamann A, (2011) Spring flowering response to climate change between 1936 and 2006 in Alberta, Canada. Bioscience 61 (7):: 514-524.
34. Anderson JT, Inouye DW, McKinney AM, Colautti RI, Mitchell-Olds T, (2012) Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences 279 (1743):: 3843-3852.
35. Polgar CA, Primack RB, (2011) Leaf-out phenology of temperate woody plants: from trees to ecosystems. New Phytologist 191 (4):: 926-941.
36. Schwartz MD, Reiter BE, (2000) Changes in North American spring. Int J Climatol 20 (8):: 929-932.
37. Primack RB, (1987) Relationships among flowers, fruits, and seeds. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 18: 409-430.
38. Morin X, Roy J, Sonié L, Chuine I, (2011) Changes in leaf phenology of three European oak species in response to experimental climate change. New Phytologist 186 (4):: 900-910.
39. Sparks TH, Jeffree EP, Jeffree CE, (2000) An examination of the relationship between flowering times and temperature at the national scale using long-term phenological records from the UK. International Journal of Biometeorology 44 (2):: 82-87.
40. NOAA National Climatic Data Center (2012) Available: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html. Accessed 2012 Dec 7.
41. McEwan RW, Brecha RJ, Geiger DR, John GP, (2011) Flowering phenology change and climate warming in southwestern Ohio. Plant Ecology 212 (1):: 55-61.
42. R Core Development Team (2008) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing Vienna, Austria.
43. Blomberg SP, Garland T, Ives AR, (2003) Testing for phylogenetic signal in comparative data: Behavioral traits are more labile. Evolution 57 (4):: 717-745.
44. Freckleton RP, Harvey PH, Pagel M, (2002) Phylogenetic analysis and comparative data: a test and review of evidence. The American Naturalist 160 (6):: 712-726.
45. Doi H, Takahashi M, Katano I, (2010) Genetic diversity increases regional variation in phenological dates in response to climate change. Global Change Biology 16 (1):: 373-379.
46. Tryjanowski P, Panek M, Sparks T, (2006) Phenological response of plants to temperature varies at the same latitude: case study of dog violet and horse chestnut in England and Poland. Clim Res 32 (1):: 89-93.