Anatomy of an extreme event

Journal of Climate

Volumn 26, Issue 9, 2013, Pages 2811-2832

  Hoerling, Martin ^a   Kumar, Arun ^a   Dole, Randall ^a   Nielsen Gammon, John W ^b   Eischeid, Jon ^c   Perlwitz, Judith ^c   Quan, Xiao Wei ^c   zhang, Tao ^c   pegion, Philip ^c   Chen, Mingyue ^a  

^a NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b TEXAS A AND M UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC FORCING; MULTIPLE FACTORS; NATURAL VARIABILITY; PHYSICAL PROCESS; PRECIPITATION DEFICITS; PRINCIPAL FACTORS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; TEMPERATURE TRENDS;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; RAIN;

PROBABILITY;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE FORCING; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; DROUGHT; EXTREME EVENT; HEAT FLUX; LA NINA; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; RAINFALL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TREND ANALYSIS;

TEXAS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84877660631     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00270.1     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Compo, G. P., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2009: Oceanic influences on recent continental warming. Climate Dyn., 32, 333-342, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0448-9.
2. Deser, C., R. Knutti, S. Solomon, and A. S. Phillips, 2012: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nat. Climate Change, 2, 775-779.
3. Dole, R., and Coauthors, 2011: Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06702, doi:10.1029/2010GL046582.
4. Dommenget, D., 2009: The ocean's role in continental climate variability and change. J. Climate, 22, 4939-4952.
5. Fannin, B., cited 2012: Updated 2011 Texas agricultural drought losses total $7.62 billion. AgriLife TODAY. [Available online at http://today.agrilife.org/2012/03/21/updated- 2011-texasagricultural-drought-losses-total-7-62-billion/.]
6. Field, C. B., and Coauthors, Eds., 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cambridge University Press, 592 pp.
7. Findell, K. L., and T. L. Delworth, 2010: Impact of common sea surface temperature anomalies on global drought and pluvial frequency. J. Climate, 23, 485-503.
8. Fischer, E., and C. Schär, 2010: Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves. Nat. Geosci., 3, 398-403.
9. Gent, P. R., and Coauthors, 2011: The Community Climate System Model version 4. J. Climate, 24, 4973-4991.
10. Greenberg, J. H., J. Bromberg, C. M. Reed, T. L. Gustafson, and R. A. Beauchamp, 1983: The epidemiology of heat-related deaths, Texas-1950, 1970-79, and 1980. Amer. J. Public Health, 73, 805-807.
11. Groisman, P. Ya., R. W. Knight, and T. R. Karl, 2012: Changes in intense precipitation over the central United States. J. Hydrometeor., 13, 47-66.
12. Guttman, N. B., and R. G. Quayle, 1996: A historical perspective of U.S. climate divisions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 293- 303.
13. Hirschi, M., and Coauthors, 2011: Observational evidence for soilmoisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nat. Geosci., 4, 17-21.
14. Hoerling, M., T. Xu, G. Bates, A. Kumar, and B. Jha, 2006: Warm oceans raise land temperatures. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 87 (19), doi:10.1029/2006EO190003.
15. Hoerling, M., A. Kumar, J. Eischeid, and B. Jha, 2008: What is causing the variability in global mean land temperature? Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L23712, doi:10.1029/2008GL035984.
16. Hoerling, M., X. Quan, and J. Eischeid, 2009: Distinct causes for two principal U.S. droughts of the 20th century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19708, doi:10.1029/2009GL039860.
17. Hoerling, M., J. Eischeid, and J. Perlwitz, 2010: Regional precipitation trends: Distinguishing natural variability from anthropogenic forcing. J. Climate, 23, 2131-2145.
18. Hoerling, M., J. Eischeid, and J. Perlwitz, X. Quan, T. Zhang, and P. Pegion, 2012: On the increased frequency of Mediterranean drought. J. Climate, 25, 2146-2161.
19. Hong, S.-Y., and E. Kalnay, 2000: Role of sea surface temperature and soil-moisture feedback in the 1988 Oklahoma-Texas drought. Nature, 408, 842-844.
20. Hong, S.-Y., and E. Kalnay, 2002: The 1998 Oklahoma-Texas drought: Mechanistic experiments with NCEP global and regional models. J. Climate, 15, 945-963.
21. Jones, G. S., P. A. Stott, and N. Christidis, 2008: Human contribution to rapidly increasing frequency of very warm NorthernHemisphere summers. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02109, doi:10.1029/2007JD008914.
22. Kiladis, G., and H. Diaz, 1989: Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 1069-1090.
23. Knutson, T., and Coauthors, 2006: Assessment of twentieth-century regional surface temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models. J. Climate, 19, 1624-1651.
24. Koster, R., and Coauthors, 2004: Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science, 305, 1138- 1140.
25. Krakauer, N., B. Cook, and M. Puma, 2010: Contribution of soil moisture feedback to hydroclimatic variability. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci, 14, 505-520.
26. Kunkel, K., X. Liang, J. Zhu, and Y. Lin, 2006: Can CGCMs simulate the twentieth-century "warming hole"in the central United States? J. Climate, 19, 4137-4153.
27. Lawrence, P. J., and Coauthors, 2012: Simulating the biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts of transient land cover change and wood harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100. J. Climate, 25, 3071-3095.
28. Leibensperger, E. M., and Coauthors, 2012: Climatic effects of 1950-2050 changes in U.S. anthropogenic aerosols-Part 2: Climate response. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 3349-3362, doi:10.5194/acp-12-3349-2012.
29. Lubchenco, J., and T. R. Karl, 2012: Predicting and managing extreme weather events. Phys. Today, 65, 31-37.
30. Luo, L., and Y. Zhang, 2012: Did we see the 2011 summer heat wave coming? Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09708, doi:10.1029/ 2012GL051383.
31. Lyon, B., and R. M. Dole, 1995: A diagnostic comparison of the 1980 and 1988 U.S. summer heat wave-droughts. J. Climate, 8, 1658-1675.
32. Madden, R., and J. Williams, 1978: The correlation between temperature and precipitation in the United States and Europe. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 142-147.
33. McRoberts, D. B., and J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011: A new homogenized climate division precipitation dataset for analysis of climate variability and climate change. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187-1199.
34. Meehl, G. A., C. Tebaldi, G. Walton, D. Easterling, and L. McDaniel, 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23701, doi:10.1029/ 2009GL040736.
35. Moss,R.H., andCoauthors, 2010: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463, 747-756.
36. Mueller, B., and S. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 12 398-12 403.
37. Namias, J., 1982: Anatomy of Great Plains protracted heat waves (especially the 1980 U.S. summer drought). Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 824-838.
38. NCDC, 2002: Data documentation for data set 9640 (DSI-9640): Time bias corrected divisional temperature-precipitation- drought index. NationalClimaticDataCenter, 12 pp. [Available online at http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/documentlibrary/ tddoc/td9640.pdf.]
39. Pan, Z.,R.W.Arritt,E. S. Takle, W. J.Gutowski Jr., C. J.Anderson, and M. Segal, 2004: Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a "warming hole."Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L17109, doi:10.1029/2004GL020528.
40. Rahmstorf, S., and D. Coumou, 2011: Increase of extreme events in a warming world. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 17 905- 17 909, doi:10.1073/pnas.1101766108.
41. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
42. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 19, 3483-3517.
43. Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister, 2004a: On the cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl. Science, 33, 1855-1859.
44. Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister, 2004b: Causes of long-term drought in the United States Great Plains. J. Climate, 17, 485- 503.
45. Schubert, S. D., and Coauthors, 2009: A U.S. CLIVAR Project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to droughtrelated SST forcing patterns: Overview and results. J. Climate, 22, 5251-5272.
46. Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, C. Herweijer, N. Naik, and J. Velez, 2005: Modeling the tropical forcing of persistent droughts and pluvials over western North America: 1856-2000. J. Climate, 18, 4065-4088.
47. Senevirante, S. I., D. Lü thi, M. Litschi, and C. Schä r, 2006: Land- atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature, 443, 205-209.
48. Shin, S., and P. Sardeshmukh, 2011: Critical influence of the pattern of tropical ocean warming on remote climate trends. Climate Dyn., 36, 1577-1591.
49. Stott, P. A., D. A. Stone, and M. R. Allen, 2004: Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432, 610- 614.
50. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498.
51. Texas Forest Service, cited 2012: Preliminary estimation of drought economic loss in East Texas forests. [Available online at http://texasforestservice.tamu.edu/uploadedFiles/ FRD/Economic_Loss_of_East_Texas_Forests_from_the_ Drought.pdf.]
52. Ting, M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and C. Li, 2009: Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 1469-1481.
53. Wang, H., S. Schubert, M. Suarez, J. Chen, M. Hoerling, A. Kumar, and P. Pegion, 2009: Attribution of the seasonality and regionality in climate trends over the United States during 1950- 2000. J. Climate, 22, 2571-2590.