Assessing the exposure of lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) to future climate change

American Journal of Primatology

Volumn 76, Issue 6, 2014, Pages 551-562

  Meyer, Andreas L S ^a   Pie, Marcio R ^a   Passos, Fernando C ^a  

^a FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF PARANÁ   (Brazil)

Author keywords

AIC; Brazilian Atlantic Forest; Callitrichidae; Maxent; Model uncertainty; Niche modeling

Indexed keywords

CALLITRICHIDAE; LEONTOPITHECUS; LEONTOPITHECUS CAISSARA; LEONTOPITHECUS CHRYSOMELAS; LEONTOPITHECUS CHRYSOPYGUS; LEONTOPITHECUS ROSALIA; PRIMATES; SAGUINUS IMPERATOR;

ANIMAL; BRAZIL; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM; LEONTOPITHECUS; THEORETICAL MODEL;

ANIMALS; BRAZIL; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS; LEONTOPITHECUS; MODELS, THEORETICAL;

EID: 84899980168     PISSN: 02752565     EISSN: 10982345     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/ajp.22247     Document Type: Article

References (82)

1. Akaike H. 1974. A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Autom Control 19:716-723.
2. Anderson RP, Raza A. 2010. The effect of the extent of the study region on GIS models of species geographic distributions and estimates of niche evolution: preliminary tests with montane rodents (genus Nephelomys) in Venezuela. J Biogeogr 37:1378-1393.
3. Andrén H. 1994. Effects of habitat fragmentation on birds and mammals in landscapes with different proportions of suitable habitat. Oikos 71:355-366.
4. Araújo MB, Alagador D, Cabeza M, Nogués-Bravo D, Thuiller W. 2011. Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecol Lett 14:484-492.
5. Araújo MB, New M. 2007. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol Evol 22:42-47.
6. Bean WT, Stafford R, Brashers JS. 2011. The effects of small sample size and sample bias on threshold selection and accuracy assessment of species distribution models. Ecography 34:1-9.
7. Burity CHF, Cruz LD, Rocha VL, et al. 2007. Golden lion tamarins, Leontopithecus rosalia (Linnaeus, 1766) in the Taquara Municipal Natural Park (Duque De Caxias, RJ): a southern extension of the known range. Neotrop Primates 14:30-31.
8. Butchart SHM, Walpole M, Collen B, et al. 2010. Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines. Science 328:1164-1168.
9. Collen B, Ram M, Zamin T, McRae L. 2008. The tropical biodiversity data gap: addressing disparity in global monitoring. Trop Conserv Sci 1:75-88.
10. Dawson TP, Jackson ST, House JI, Prentice IC, Mace GM. 2011. Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science 332:53-58.
11. Dietz JM, Peres CA, Pinder L. 1997. Foraging ecology and use of space in wild golden lion tamarins (Leontopithecus rosalia). Am J Primatol 41:289-305.
12. Diniz-Filho JAF, Bini LM, Rangel TFLB, et al. 2009. Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate changes. Ecography 32:897-906.
13. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP, et al. 2006. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29:129-151.
14. Elith J, Kearney M, Phillips S. 2010. The art of modelling range-shifting species. Methods Ecol Evol 1:330-342.
15. Fitzpatrick MC, Hargrove WH. 2009. The projection of species distribution models and the problem of non-analog climate. Biodivers Conserv 18:2255-2261.
16. Grativol AD, Ballou JD, Fleischer RC. 2001. Microsatellite variation within and among recently fragmented populations of the golden lion tamarin (Leontopithecus rosalia). Conserv Genet 2:1-9.
17. Green RE, Collingham YC, Willis SG, et al. 2008. Performance of climate envelope models in retrodicting recent changes in bird population size from observed climatic change. Biol Lett 4:599-602.
18. Guisan A, Thuiller W. 2005. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol Lett 8:993-1009.
19. Hannah L, Midgley G, Andelman S, et al. 2007. Protected area needs in a changing climate. Front Ecol Environ 5:131-138.
20. Hassan R, Scholes R, Ash N. 2005. Ecosystems and human well-being: current state and trends, vol. 1. Findings of the condition and trends working group of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Washington, DC: Island Press. 948 p.
21. Heltne PG. 1978. Demography and wildlife management of tamarins and marmosets. Primates Med 10:30-36.
22. Hernandez PA, Graham CH, Master LL, Albert DL. 2006. The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods. Ecography 29:773-785.
23. Hijmans RJ, Graham CH. 2006. The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Glob Change Biol 12:2272-2281.
24. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A. 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965-1978.
25. Ho SYW, Shapiro B. 2011. Skyline-plot methods for estimating demographic history from nucleotide sequences. Mol Ecol Resour 11:423-434.
26. Holst B, Medici EP, Marino-Filho OJ, et al. 2006. Lion Tamarin Population and Habitat Viability Assessment Workshop 2005: final report. Apple Valley, MN: IUCN/SSC Conservation Breeding Specialist Group. p 205.
27. IPCC. 2007. Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al., editors. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. p 1-18.
28. Isaac JL, Vanderwal JJ, Johnson CN, Williams SE. 2009. Resistance and resilience: quantifying relative extinction risk in a diverse assemblage of tropical mammals. Divers Distrib 15:280-288.
29. IUCN. 2012. IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2012.1. Available online at: www.iucnredlist.org [accessed September 21, 2012].
30. Kearney M, Porter W. 2009. Mechanistic niche modeling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species' ranges. Ecol Lett 12:334-350.
31. Keith DA, Akçakaya HR, Thuiller W, et al. 2008. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biol Lett 4:560-563.
32. Kierulff MCM, Rylands AB. 2003. Census and distribution of the golden lion tamarin (Leontopithecus rosalia). Am J Primatol 59:29-44.
33. Kierulff MCM, Rylands AB, Mendes SL, de Oliveira MM. 2008. Leontopithecus chrysopygus. In: IUCN 2012. IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2012.1. Available online at: www.iucnredlist.org [accessed September 21, 2012].
34. Kierulff MCM, Ruiz-Miranda CR, de Oliveira PP, et al. 2012. The Golden lion tamarin Leontopithecus rosalia: a conservation success story. Int Zoo Yearb 46:36-45.
35. Lande R. 1987. Extinction thresholds in demographic models of territorial populations. Am Nat 130:624-635.
36. Loiselle BA, Howell CA, Graham CH, et al. 2003. Avoiding pitfalls of using species distribution models in conservation planning. Conserv Biol 17:1591-1600.
37. Lorenzen ED, Nogués-Bravo D, Orlando L, et al. 2011. Species-specific responses of Late Quaternary megafauna to climate and humans. Nature 479:359-364.
38. Lorini ML, Persson VG. 1994. Status of field research on Leontopithecus caissara: the black-faced lion tamarin project. Neotrop Primates 2:52-55.
39. Martins MM, Nascimento ATA, Nali C, et al. 2011. Genetic analysis reveals population structuring and a bottleneck in the black-faced lion tamarin (Leontopithecus caissara). Folia Primatol 82:197-211.
40. Mittermeier RA, Ratsimbazafy J, Rylands AB, et al. 2007. Primates in peril: the world's 25 most endangered primates, 2006-2008. Primate Conserv 22:1-40.
41. MMA [Ministério do Meio Ambiente]. 2012. Cadastro Nacional de Unidades de Conservação. Available online at: http://mapas.mma.gov.br/i3geo/datadownload.htm [accessed September 25, 2012].
42. Nascimento ATA, Schmidlin LAJ. 2011. Habitat selection by, and carrying capacity for, the Critically Endangered black-faced lion tamarin Leontopithecus caissara (Primates: Callitrichidae). Oryx 45:288-295.
43. Nascimento ATA, Prado F, Valladares-Padua CB, De Marco Júnior P. 2011. Population density of black-faced lion tamarin (Leontopithecus caissara). Neotrop Primates 18:17-21.
44. Nogués-Bravo D. 2009. Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches. Global Ecol Biogeogr 18:521-531.
45. Nogués-Bravo D, Rahbek C. 2011. Communities under climate change. Science 334:1070-1071.
46. Oliveira LC. 2010. Ecology and demography of golden-headed lion tamarins (Leontopithecus chrysomelas) in Cabruca agroforest, Bahia state, Brazil [dissertation]. USA: University of Maryland.
47. Oliveira LC, Hankerson SJ, Dietz JM, Raboy BE. 2010. Key tree species for the golden-headed lion tamarin and implications for shade-cocoa management in southern Bahia, Brazil. Anim Conserv 13:60-70.
48. Parmesan C. 2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 37:637-669.
49. Pearson RG, Dawson TP. 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimatic envelope models useful? Global Ecol Biogeogr 12:361-371.
50. Pereira HM, Leadley PW, Proença V, et al. 2010. Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century. Science 330:1496-1501.
51. Phillips SJ, Dudík M. 2008. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31:161-175.
52. Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE. 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Model 190:231-259.
53. Pie MR, Meyer ALS, Firkowski CR, Ribeiro LF, Bornschein MR. 2013. Understanding the mechanisms underlying the distribution of microendemic montane frogs (Brachycephalus spp., Terrarana: Brachycephalidae) in the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest. Ecol Model 250:165-176.
54. Pinto LPS, Rylands AB. 1997. Geographic distribution of the golden-headed lion tamarin, Leontopithecus chrysomelas: implications for its management and conservation. Folia Primatol 68:161-180.
55. Raboy BE, Neves LG, Zeigler S, et al. 2010. Strength of habitat and landscape metrics in predicting golden-headed lion tamarin presence or absence in forest patches in southern Bahia, Brazil. Biotropica 42:388-397.
56. Ribeiro MC, Metzger JP, Martensen AC, Ponzoni FJ, Hirota MM. 2009. The Brazilian Atlantic Forest: how much is left, and how is the remaining forest distributed? Implications for conservation. Biol Conserv 142:1141-1153.
57. Röhe F, Antunes AP, Tófoli CH. 2003. The discovery of a new population of black lion tamarins (Leontopithecus chrysopygus) in the Serra de Paranapiacaba, São Paulo, Brazil. Neotrop Primates 11:75-76.
58. Rolim SG, Chiarello AG. 2004. Slow death of Atlantic forest trees in cocoa agroforestry in southeastern Brazil. Biodivers Conserv 13:2679-2694.
59. Root TL, Schneider SH. 2006. Conservation and climate change: the challenges ahead. Conserv Biol 20:706-708.
60. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, et al. 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57-60.
61. Ruiz-Miranda CR, Grativol AD, Procópio-de-Oliveira P. 2008. A espécie e sua situação na paisagem fragmentada. In: Procópio-de-Oliveira PP, Grativol AD, Ruiz-Miranda CR, editors. Conservação do mico-leão-dourado: enfrentando os desafios de uma paisagem fragmentada. Campo dos Goytacazes, Brazil: Editora da Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense Darcy Ribeiro. p 6-13.
62. Rylands AB, Nogueira Neto P. 1994. Conservation units and the protection of Atlantic forest lion tamarins. Neotrop Primates 2:12-14.
63. Rylands AB, Mallinson JJC, Kleiman DG, et al. 2002a. A history of lion tamarin research and conservation. In: Kleiman DG, Rylands AB, editors. Lion tamarins: biology and conservation. Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution Press. p 3-41.
64. Rylands AB, Kierulff MCM, Pinto LPS. 2002b. Distribution and status of lion tamarins. In: Kleiman DG, Rylands AB, editors. Lion tamarins: biology and conservation. Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution Press. p 42-70.
65. Savage A, Thomas L, Leighty KA, Soto LH, Medina FS. 2010. Novel survey method finds dramatic decline of wild cotton-top tamarin population. Nat Commun 1:1-7.
66. Schroth G, Harvey CA. 2007. Biodiversity conservation in cocoa production landscapes: an overview. Biodivers Conserv 16:2237-2244.
67. Schwartz MW. 2012. Using niche models with climate projections to inform conservation management decisions. Biol Conserv 155:149-156.
68. Shoo LP, Williams SE, Hero J-M. 2005. Climate warming and the rainforest birds of the Australian Wet Tropics: using abundance data as a sensitive predictor of change in total population size. Biol Conserv 125:335-343.
69. Silva VPR. 2004. On climate variability in Northeast of Brazil. J Arid Environ 58:575-596.
70. Soberón J. 2007. Grinnellian and Eltonian niches and geographic distributions of species. Ecol Lett 10:1115-1123.
71. SOS MA/INPE [SOS Mata Atlântica/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais]. 2009. Atlas dos remanescentes florestais da Mata Atlântica (2005-2008). Available online at: http://mapas.sosma.org.br [accessed December 9, 2011].
72. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, et al. 2004. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145-148.
73. Valladares-Padua CB. 1993. The ecology, behavior and conservation of the black-faced lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysopygus, Mikan 1913) [dissertation]. USA: University of Florida.
74. Valladares-Padua CB, Ballou JD, Martins CS, Cullen L Jr. 2002. Metapopulation management for the conservation of black lion tamarins. In: Kleiman DG, Rylands AB, editors. Lion tamarins: biology and conservation. Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution Press. p 301-314.
75. VanDerWal J, Murphy HT, Kutt AS, et al. 2012. Focus on poleward shifts in species' distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change. Nat Clim Change 2:1-5.
76. Warren DL, Seifert SN. 2011. Ecological niche modeling in Maxent: the importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria. Ecol Appl 21:335-342.
77. Warren DL, Glor RE, Turelli M. 2010. ENMTools: a toolbox for comparative studies of environmental niche models. Ecography 33:607-611.
78. Wetzel FT, Beissmann H, Penn DJ, Jetz W. 2013. Vulnerability of terrestrial island vertebrates to projected sea-level rise. Glob Change Biol 19:2058-2070.
79. Williams SE, Shoo LP, Isaac JL, Hoffmann AA, Langham G. 2008. Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change. PLoS Biol 6:e325.
80. Yackulic CB, Chandler R, Zipkin EF, et al. 2013. Presence-only modelling using MAXENT: when can we trust the inferences? Methods Ecol Evol 4:236-243.
81. Zeigler SL, Fagan WF, DeFries R, Raboy BE. 2010. Identifying important forest patches for the long-tem persistence of the endangered golden-headed lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysomelas). Trop Conserv Sci 3:63-77.
82. Zeigler SL, Neel MC, Oliveira L, Raboy BE, Fagan WF. 2011. Conspecific and heterospecific attraction in assessments of functional connectivity. Biodivers Conserv 20:2779-2796.