Climate change shifts environmental space and limits transferability of treeline models

Ecography

Volumn 37, Issue 4, 2014, Pages 321-335

  Schibalski, Anett ^a   Lehtonen, Aleksi ^b   Schröder, Boris ^c,d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF POTSDAM   (Germany)

^b FINNISH FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Finland)

^c TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF BRAUNSCHWEIG   (Germany)

^d BERLIN BRANDENBURG INSTITUTE OF ADVANCED BIODIVERSITY RESEARCH BBIB   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; BASAL AREA; CLIMATE CHANGE; FERTILITY; FOREST; RANGE EXPANSION; TREE; TREELINE;

FINLAND; LAPPI [FINLAND];

ABIES; BETULA PUBESCENS; PICEA ABIES; PINUS SYLVESTRIS;

EID: 84897109785     PISSN: 09067590     EISSN: 16000587     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00368.x     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. Aertsen W. et al. 2010. Comparison and ranking of different modelling techniques for prediction of site index in Mediterranean mountain forests. - Ecol. Model. 221 : 1119 - 1130.
2. Almqvist C. et al. 1998. Predicting germination capacity of Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies seeds using temperature data from weather stations. - Can. J. For. Res. 28 : 1530 - 1535.
3. Araújo M. B. and New M. 2007. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. - Trends Ecol. Evol. 22 : 42 - 47.
4. Austin M. P. 2002. Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. - Ecol. Model. 157 : 101 - 118.
5. Autio J. and Colpaert A. 2005. The impact of elevation, topography and snow load damage of trees on the position of the actual timberline on the fells in central Finnish Lapland. - Fennia 183 : 15 - 36.
6. Bjørnstad O. N. and Falck W. 2001. Nonparametric spatial covariance functions: estimation and testing. - Environ. Ecol. Stat. 8 : 53 - 70.
7. Brandtberg P.-O. et al. 2000. Changes in forest-floor chemistry caused by a birch admixture in Norway spruce stands. - For. Ecol. Manage. 130 : 253 - 264.
8. Brotons L. et al. 2004. Presence-absence versus presence-only modelling methods for predicting bird habitat suitability. - Ecography 27 : 437 - 448.
9. Burdon J. J. et al. 1992. Density-dependent mortality in Pinus sylvestris caused by the snow blight pathogen Phacidium infestans. - Oecologia 90 : 74 - 79.
10. Dobrowski S. Z. et al. 2011. Modeling plant ranges over 75 years of climate change in California, USA: temporal transferability and species traits. - Ecol. Monogr. 81 : 241 - 257.
11. Doležal J. et al. 2006. Neighborhood interactions influencing tree population dynamics in nonpyrogenous boreal forest in northern Finland. - Plant Ecol. 185 : 135 - 150.
12. Dormann C. F. et al. 2007. Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data: a review. - Ecography 30 : 609 - 628.
13. Dormann C. F. et al. 2013. Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance. - Ecography 36 : 27 - 46.
14. Elith J. et al. 2006. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. - Ecography 29 : 129 - 151.
15. Elith J. et al. 2008. A working guide to boosted regression trees. - J. Anim. Ecol. 77 : 802 - 813.
16. Eronen M. et al. 1999. Variable Holocene climate, treeline dynamics and changes in natural environments in northern Finnish Lapland. - Chemosphere: Global Change Sci. 1 : 377 - 387.
17. Fletcher D. et al. 2005. Modelling skewed data with many zeros: a simple approach combining ordinary and logistic regression. - Environ. Ecol. Stat. 12 : 45 - 54.
18. Grace J. et al. 2002. Impacts of climate change on the tree line. - Ann. Bot. 90 : 537 - 544.
19. Guisan A. et al. 1999. GLM versus CCA spatial modeling of plant species distribution. - Plant Ecol. 143 : 107 - 122.
20. Guisan A. et al. 2007a. Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size. - Divers. Distrib. 13 : 332 - 340.
21. Guisan A. et al. 2007b. What matters for predicting the occurrences of trees: techniques, data, or species' characteristics? - Ecol. Monogr. 77 : 615 - 630.
22. Hallikainen V. et al. 2007. Establishment and height development of harvested and naturally regenerated Scots pine near the timberline in northeast Finnish Lapland. - Silva Fenn. 41 : 71 - 88.
23. Harsch M. A. et al. 2009. Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming. - Ecol. Lett. 12 : 1040 - 1049.
24. Helama S. et al. 2004. Dendrochronologically dated changes in the limit of pine in northernmost Finland during the past 7.5 millennia. - Boreas 33 : 250 - 259.
25. Helle T. and Moilanen H. 1993. The effects of reindeer grazing on the natural regeneration of Pinus sylvestris. - Scand. J. For. Res. 8 : 395 - 407.
26. Hijmans R. J. et al. 2012. dismo: species distribution modeling. - R package ver. 0.7-17 http://CRAN.R-project.org/packagedismo
27. Holtmeier F.-K. and Broll G. 2005. Sensitivity and response of northern hemisphere altitudinal and polar treelines to environmental change at landscape and local scales. - Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 14 : 395 - 410.
28. Holtmeier F.-K. and Broll G. 2007. Treeline advance - driving processes and adverse factors. - Landscape Online 1 : 1 - 33.
29. Hothorn T. et al. 2011. Decomposing environmental, spatial, and spatiotemporal components of species distributions. - Ecol. Monogr. 81 : 329 - 347.
30. Hynynen J. et al. 2011. The effects of species mixture on the growth and yield of mid-rotation mixed stands of Scots pine and silver birch. - For. Ecol. Manage. 262 : 1174 - 1183.
31. 2], nitrogen deposition, increased temperature and management on carbon sequestration in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems: a literature review. - New Phytol. 173 : 463 - 480.
32. Jalkanen R. and Konôpka B. 1998. Snow-packing as a potential harmful factor on Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Betula pubescens at high altitude in northern Finland. - Eur. J. For. Pathol. 28 : 373 - 382.
33. Jepsen J. U. et al. 2008. Climate change and outbreaks of the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata in subarctic birch forest: evidence of a recent outbreak range expansion. - J. Anim. Ecol. 77 : 257 - 264.
34. Jönsson A. M. et al. 2004. Climate change and the effect of temperature backlashes causing frost damage in Picea abies. - Global Planetary Change 44 : 195 - 207.
35. Juntunen V. and Neuvonen S. 2006. Natural regeneration of Scots pine and Norway spruce close to the timberline in northern Finland. - Silva Fenn. 40 : 443 - 458.
36. Juntunen V. et al. 2002. Potential for timberline advance in northern Finland, as revealed by monitoring during 1983-99. - Arctic 55 : 348 - 361.
37. Kultti S. et al. 2006. Past changes in the Scots pine forest line and climate in Finnish Lapland: a study based on megafossils, lake sediments, and GIS- based vegetation and climate data. - Holocene 16 : 381 - 391.
38. Kuusela K. and Salminen S. 1991. Suomen metsävarat 1977-1984 ja niiden kehittyminen 1952-1980. - Acta For. Fenn. 220 : 83.
39. Leathwick J. R. et al. 2006. Variation in demersal fish species richness in the oceans surrounding New Zealand: an analysis using boosted regression trees. - Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 321 : 267 - 281.
40. Lehtonen J. and Heikkinen R. K. 1995. On the recovery of mountain birch after Epirrita damage in Finnish Lapland, with a particular emphasis on reindeer grazing. - Ecoscience 2 : 349 - 356.
41. Mård H. 1996. The influence of a birch shelter (Betula spp) on the growth of young stands of Picea abies. - Scand. J. For. Res. 11 : 343 - 350.
42. Martin T. G. et al. 2005. Zero tolerance ecology: improving ecological inference by modelling the source of zero observations. - Ecol. Lett. 8 : 1235 - 1246.
43. Mathisen I. E. and Hofgaard A. 2011. Recent height and diameter growth variation in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) along the Arctic margin: the importance of growing season versus non-growing season climate factors. - Plant Ecol. Divers. 4 : 1 - 11.
44. Mattsson J. 1995. Human impact on the timberline in the far north of Europe. - In: Heikkinen O. et al. (eds), Environmental aspects of the timberline in Finland and in the Polish Carpathians. Uniwersytet Jagiellonski, pp. 41 - 55.
45. Meier E. S. et al. 2010. Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions. - Ecography 33 : 1038 - 1048.
46. METLA 2002. Valtakunnan Metsien 9. Inventointi (VMI9)- Maastotyön Ohjeet 2002, Kuusamo ja Lappi. - Metsäntutkimuslaitos.
47. Moisen G. G. et al. 2006. Predicting tree species presence and basal area in Utah: a comparison of stochastic gradient boosting, generalized additive models, and tree-based methods. - Ecol. Model. 199 : 176 - 187.
48. Oksanen L. 1995. Isolated occurrences of spruce, Picea abies, in northernmost Fennoscandia in relation to the enigma of continental mountain birch forests. - Acta Bot. Fenn. 153 : 81 - 92.
49. Potts J. M. and Elith J. 2006. Comparing species abundance models. - Ecol. Model. 199 : 153 - 163.
50. Quinn P. F. et al. 1995. The ln(a/tan/β) index: how to calculate it and how to use it within the topmodel framework. - Hydrol. Processes 9 : 161 - 182.
51. Randin C. F. et al. 2006. Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space? - J. Biogeogr. 33 : 1689 - 1703.
52. Revermann R. et al. 2012. Habitat at the mountain tops: how long can rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) survive rapid climate changein the Swiss Alps? A multi-scale approach. - J. Ornithol. 153 : 891 - 905.
53. Ridgeway G. 2010. gbm: generalized boosted regression models. - R package ver. 1.6-3.1 http://CRAN.R-project.org/packagegbm
54. Roberts D. W. and Cooper S. V. 1989. Concepts and techniques of vegetation mapping. - USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-257 257 : 90 - 96.
55. Salminen H. and Jalkanen R. 2007. Intra-annual height increment of Pinus sylvestris at high latitudes in Finland. - Tree Physiol. 27 : 1347 - 1353.
56. Schröder B. and Richter O. 1999. Are habitat models transferable in space and time? - Z. Ökol. Naturschutz 8 : 195 - 205.
57. Stöcklin J. K. and Körner C. 1999. Recruitment and mortality of Pinus sylvestris near the nordic treeline: the role of climatic change and herbivory. - Ecol. Bull. 47 : 168 - 177.
58. Susiluoto S. et al. 2010. Testing the growth limitation hypothesis for subarctic Scots pine. - J. Ecol. 98 : 1186 - 1195.
59. Sutinen R. et al. 2002. Distribution and diversity of tree species with respect to soil electrical characteristics in Finnish Lapland. - Can. J. For. Res. 32 : 1158 - 1170.
60. Sutinen R. et al. 2005. Soil-driven timberline of spruce (Picea abies) in Tanaelv Belt-Lapland Granulite Transition, Finland. - Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res. 37 : 611 - 619.
61. Sveinbjörnsson B. 2000. North American and European treelines: external forces and internal processes controlling position. - Ambio 29 : 388 - 395.
62. Swets J. A. 1988. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. - Science 240 : 1285 - 1293.
63. Tasanen T. et al. 1998. Monitoring timberline dynamics in northern Lapland. - In: Tasanen T. (ed.), Research and management of the northern timberline region. Proc. Gustav Sirén Symp. Wilderness Center Inari, September 1997. Finn. For. Res. Inst. Res. Papers 677, pp. 75 - 86.
64. Tomppo E. et al. 2011. Designing and conducting a forest inventory - case: 9th National Forest Inventory of Finland. - Springer.
65. Valle M. et al. 2013. Comparing the performance of species distribution models of Zostera marina: implications for conservation. - J. Sea Res. 83 : 56 - 64.
66. Veijola P. 1998. The northern timberline and timberline forests in Fennoscandia. - Finn. For. Res. Inst. Res. Papers 672 : 1 - 242.
67. Venäläinen A. et al. 2005. A basic Finnish climate data set: 1961-2000 - description and illustrations. - Finn. Meteorol. Inst. Rep. 2005 : 5.
68. Wallenius T. et al. 2002. Spatial tree age structure and fire history in two old-growth forests in eastern Fennoscandia. - Silva Fenn. 36 : 185 - 199.
69. Welsh A. H. et al. 1996. Modelling the abundance of rare species: statistical models for counts with extra zeros. - Ecol. Model. 88 : 297 - 308.
70. Wilmking M. et al. 2006. Effect of tree line advance on carbon storage in NW Alaska. - J. Geophys. Res. 111 : G02023.
71. Yoshino M. M. 1984. Thermal belt and cold air drainage on the mountain slope and cold air lake in the basin at quiet, clear night. - GeoJournal 8 : 235 - 250.
72. Zasada J. et al. 1992. The reproductive process in boreal forest trees. - In: Shugart H. H. et al. (eds), A systems analysis of the global boreal forest. Cambridge Univ. Press, pp. 85 - 123.
73. Zurell D. et al. 2009. Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems: how good can predictions really be? - Ecography 32 : 733 - 744.
74. Zurell D. et al. 2012. Predicting to new environments: tools for visualising model behaviour and impacts on mapped distributions. - Divers. Distrib. 18 : 628 - 634.