메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 27, Issue 7, 2014, Pages 2779-2788

How variable is the uncertainty in ENSO sea surface temperature prediction?

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; FORECASTING; OCEANOGRAPHY; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION;

EID: 84896953494     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00576.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (32)

References (31)
  • 1
    • 0033560510 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The ''normality'' of El Niño
    • doi:10.1029/ 1999GL900161.
    • Burgers, G., and D. B. Stephenson, 1999: The ''normality'' of El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1027-1030, doi:10.1029/ 1999GL900161.
    • (1999) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.26 , pp. 1027-1030
    • Burgers, G.1    Stephenson, D.B.2
  • 2
    • 0003406207 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Currents of Change: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on Climate and Society
    • Cambridge University Press
    • Glantz, M. H., 2000: Currents of Change: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on Climate and Society. Cambridge University Press, 266 pp.
    • (2000) , pp. 266
    • Glantz, M.H.1
  • 3
    • 79957571334 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-range forecasting and the global framework for climate services
    • doi:10.3354/cr00963.
    • Graham, R. J., and Coauthors, 2011: Long-range forecasting and the global framework for climate services. Climate Res., 47, 47-55, doi:10.3354/cr00963.
    • (2011) Climate Res. , vol.47 , pp. 47-55
    • Graham, R.J.1
  • 4
    • 0031207768 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ElNiño,LaNiña, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010,1769:ENOLNA.2.0.CO;2.
    • Hoerling, M., A. Kumar, and M. Zhong, 1997: ElNiño,LaNiña, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J. Climate, 10, 1769-1786, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010,1769:ENOLNA.2.0.CO;2.
    • (1997) J. Climate , vol.10 , pp. 1769-1786
    • Hoerling, M.1    Kumar, A.2    Zhong, M.3
  • 5
    • 64049086290 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparative analysis of change in the first and second moment of the PDF of seasonal means with ENSO SSTs
    • doi:10.1175/ 2008JCLI2495.1.
    • Jha, B., and A. Kumar, 2009: A comparative analysis of change in the first and second moment of the PDF of seasonal means with ENSO SSTs. J. Climate, 22, 1412-1423, doi:10.1175/ 2008JCLI2495.1.
    • (2009) J. Climate , vol.22 , pp. 1412-1423
    • Jha, B.1    Kumar, A.2
  • 6
    • 84869506823 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere winter
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1364-6.
    • Kim, H.-M., P. J.Webster, and J.A.Curry, 2012: Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere winter. ClimateDyn., 39, 2957-2973, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1364-6.
    • (2012) ClimateDyn. , vol.39 , pp. 2957-2973
    • Kim, H.-M.1    Webster, P.J.2    Curry, J.A.3
  • 7
    • 84885653293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 seasonal-to-interannual prediction, phase-2 toward developing intra-seasonal prediction
    • doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1, in press.
    • Kirtman, B. P., and Coauthors, 2014: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 seasonal-to-interannual prediction, phase-2 toward developing intra-seasonal prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1, in press.
    • (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • Kirtman, B.P.1
  • 8
    • 70350337843 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Finite samples and uncertainty estimates for skill measures for seasonal predictions
    • doi:10.1175/2009MWR2814.1.
    • Kumar, A., 2009: Finite samples and uncertainty estimates for skill measures for seasonal predictions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2622-2631, doi:10.1175/2009MWR2814.1.
    • (2009) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 2622-2631
    • Kumar, A.1
  • 9
    • 0001435583 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Analysis of a conceptual model of seasonal climate variability and implications for seasonal prediction
    • doi:10.1175/ 1520-0477(2000)081,0255:AOACMO.2.3.CO;2.
    • Kumar, A., and M. P. Hoerling, 2000: Analysis of a conceptual model of seasonal climate variability and implications for seasonal prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 255-264, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0477(2000)081,0255:AOACMO.2.3.CO;2.
    • (2000) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.81 , pp. 255-264
    • Kumar, A.1    Hoerling, M.P.2
  • 10
    • 84884533219 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability, uncertainty and decision making: A unified perspective to build a bridge from weather to climate
    • doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2013.05.009.
    • Kumar, A., and R. Murtugudde, 2013: Predictability, uncertainty and decision making: A unified perspective to build a bridge from weather to climate. Curr. Opinion Environ. Sustainability, 5, 327-333, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2013.05.009.
    • (2013) Curr. Opinion Environ. Sustainability , vol.5 , pp. 327-333
    • Kumar, A.1    Murtugudde, R.2
  • 11
    • 84894323248 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual and interdecadal variability of ocean temperature along the equatorial Pacific in conjunction withENSO
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1721-0, in press.
    • Kumar, A., and Z.-Z.Hu, 2014: Interannual and interdecadal variability of ocean temperature along the equatorial Pacific in conjunction withENSO. ClimateDyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1721-0, in press.
    • (2014) ClimateDyn.
    • Kumar, A.1    Hu, Z.-Z.2
  • 12
    • 0034277373 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changes in the spread of the variability of the seasonal mean atmospheric states associated with ENSO
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013,3139: CITSOT.2.0.CO;2.
    • Kumar, A., A. G. Barnston, P. Peng, M. P. Hoerling, and L. Goddard, 2000: Changes in the spread of the variability of the seasonal mean atmospheric states associated with ENSO. J. Climate, 13, 3139-3151, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013,3139: CITSOT.2.0.CO;2.
    • (2000) J. Climate , vol.13 , pp. 3139-3151
    • Kumar, A.1    Barnston, A.G.2    Peng, P.3    Hoerling, M.P.4    Goddard, L.5
  • 13
    • 84862080414 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An analysis of the nonstationarity in the bias of sea surface temperature forecasts for the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2
    • doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00335.1.
    • Kumar, A., M. Chen, L. Zhang, W. Wang, Y. Xue, C. Wen, L. Marx, and B. Huang, 2012: An analysis of the nonstationarity in the bias of sea surface temperature forecasts for the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 3003-3016, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00335.1.
    • (2012) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.140 , pp. 3003-3016
    • Kumar, A.1    Chen, M.2    Zhang, L.3    Wang, W.4    Xue, Y.5    Wen, C.6    Marx, L.7    Huang, B.8
  • 14
    • 84870602021 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Origins of tropical-wide SST biases in CMIP multi-model ensembles
    • doi:10.1029/2012GL053777.
    • Li, G., and S.-P. Xie, 2012: Origins of tropical-wide SST biases in CMIP multi-model ensembles. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L22703, doi:10.1029/2012GL053777.
    • (2012) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.39
    • Li, G.1    Xie, S.-P.2
  • 16
    • 80052817700 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A proposed mechanism for the asymmetric duration of El Niño and La Niña
    • doi:10.1175/ 2011JCLI3999.1.
    • Okumura, Y. M., M. Ohba, C. Deser, and H. Ueda, 2011: A proposed mechanism for the asymmetric duration of El Niño and La Niña. J. Climate, 24, 3822-3829, doi:10.1175/ 2011JCLI3999.1.
    • (2011) J. Climate , vol.24 , pp. 3822-3829
    • Okumura, Y.M.1    Ohba, M.2    Deser, C.3    Ueda, H.4
  • 17
    • 17744371637 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A large ensemble analysis of the influence of tropical SSTs on seasonal atmospheric variability
    • doi:10.1175/JCLI-3314.1.
    • Peng, P., and A. Kumar, 2005: A large ensemble analysis of the influence of tropical SSTs on seasonal atmospheric variability. J. Climate, 18, 1068-1085, doi:10.1175/JCLI-3314.1.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 1068-1085
    • Peng, P.1    Kumar, A.2
  • 18
    • 79551590897 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An analysis of seasonal predictability in coupled model forecasts
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0711-8.
    • Peng, P., and A. Kumar, and W. Wang, 2011: An analysis of seasonal predictability in coupled model forecasts. Climate Dyn., 36, 637-638, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0711-8.
    • (2011) Climate Dyn. , vol.36 , pp. 637-638
    • Peng, P.1    Kumar, A.2    Wang, W.3
  • 19
    • 0036648346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate
    • doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(2002)015,1609:AIISAS.2.0.CO;2.
    • Reynolds, R.W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(2002)015,1609:AIISAS.2.0.CO;2.
    • (2002) J. Climate , vol.15 , pp. 1609-1625
    • Reynolds, R.W.1    Rayner, N.A.2    Smith, T.M.3    Stokes, D.C.4    Wang, W.5
  • 20
    • 0022831511 scopus 로고
    • North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114,2352: NAPATP.2.0.CO;2.
    • Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1986: North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 2352-2362, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114,2352: NAPATP.2.0.CO;2.
    • (1986) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.114 , pp. 2352-2362
    • Ropelewski, C.F.1    Halpert, M.S.2
  • 21
    • 77956572998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
    • doi:10.1175/ 2010BAMS3001.1.
    • Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015-1057, doi:10.1175/ 2010BAMS3001.1.
    • (2010) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.91 , pp. 1015-1057
    • Saha, S.1
  • 22
    • 0034670340 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changes of probability associated with El Niño
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013,4268:COPAWE.2.0.CO;2.
    • Sardeshmukh, P. D., G. P. Compo, and C. Penland, 2000: Changes of probability associated with El Niño. J. Climate, 13, 4268-4286, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013,4268:COPAWE.2.0.CO;2.
    • (2000) J. Climate , vol.13 , pp. 4268-4286
    • Sardeshmukh, P.D.1    Compo, G.P.2    Penland, C.3
  • 23
    • 0029768451 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamic ocean-atmosphere coupling: A thermostat for the tropics
    • doi:10.1126/science.272.5265.1148.
    • Sun, D.-Z., and Z. Liu, 1996: Dynamic ocean-atmosphere coupling: A thermostat for the tropics. Science, 272, 1148-1150, doi:10.1126/science.272.5265.1148.
    • (1996) Science , vol.272 , pp. 1148-1150
    • Sun, D.-Z.1    Liu, Z.2
  • 24
    • 23744450253 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reliability of ENSO dynamical predictions
    • doi:10.1175/JAS3445.1.
    • Tang, Y., R. Kleeman, and A. M. Moore, 2005: Reliability of ENSO dynamical predictions. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1770-1791, doi:10.1175/JAS3445.1.
    • (2005) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.62 , pp. 1770-1791
    • Tang, Y.1    Kleeman, R.2    Moore, A.M.3
  • 25
    • 42549169393 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measuring the potential predictability of ensemble climate predictions
    • doi:10.1029/2007JD008804.
    • Tang, Y., H. Lin, and A. M. Moore, 2008: Measuring the potential predictability of ensemble climate predictions. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D04108, doi:10.1029/2007JD008804.
    • (2008) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.113
    • Tang, Y.1    Lin, H.2    Moore, A.M.3
  • 26
    • 14044269320 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measuring the potential utility of seasonal climate predictions
    • doi:10.1029/2004GL021575.
    • Tippett, M. K., R. Kleeman, and Y. Tang, 2004: Measuring the potential utility of seasonal climate predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L22201, doi:10.1029/2004GL021575.
    • (2004) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.31
    • Tippett, M.K.1    Kleeman, R.2    Tang, Y.3
  • 27
    • 0032577959 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures
    • doi:10.1029/97JC01444.
    • Trenberth, K. E., G. W. Branstrator, D. Karoly, A. Kumar, N.-C. Lau, and C. Ropelewski, 1998: Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 291-14 324, doi:10.1029/97JC01444.
    • (1998) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.103
    • Trenberth, K.E.1    Branstrator, G.W.2    Karoly, D.3    Kumar, A.4    Lau, N.-C.5    Ropelewski, C.6
  • 28
    • 80052764278 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0954-4.
    • Xue, Y., B. Huang, Z.-Z. Hu, A. Kumar, C. Wen, D. Behringer, and S. Nadiga, 2011: An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Climate Dyn., 37 (11-12), 2511-2539, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0954-4.
    • (2011) Climate Dyn. , vol.37 , Issue.11-12 , pp. 2511-2539
    • Xue, Y.1    Huang, B.2    Hu, Z.-Z.3    Kumar, A.4    Wen, C.5    Behringer, D.6    Nadiga, S.7
  • 29
    • 84878110062 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction skill and bias of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2
    • doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00600.1.
    • Xue, Y., M. Chen, A. Kumar, Z.-Z. Hu, and W. Wang, 2013: Prediction skill and bias of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. J. Climate, 26, 5358-5378, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00600.1.
    • (2013) J. Climate , vol.26 , pp. 5358-5378
    • Xue, Y.1    Chen, M.2    Kumar, A.3    Hu, Z.-Z.4    Wang, W.5
  • 30
    • 84860312372 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Influence of changes in observations on precipitation: A case study for the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)
    • doi:10.1029/2011JD017347.
    • Zhang, L., A. Kumar, and W. Wang, 2012: Influence of changes in observations on precipitation: A case study for the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). J. Geophys. Res., 117, D08105, doi:10.1029/2011JD017347.
    • (2012) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.117
    • Zhang, L.1    Kumar, A.2    Wang, W.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.