Comparative evaluation of physics-based and statistical forecasts in Northern California

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Volumn 118, Issue 12, 2013, Pages 6219-6240

  Segou, M ^a,b   Parsons, T ^a   Ellsworth, W ^a  

^a U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITÉ CÔTE D'AZUR   (France)

Author keywords

Coulomb stress; ETAS; forecast; Loma Prieta; rate state friction; triggering

Indexed keywords

AFTERSHOCK; COMPARATIVE STUDY; COULOMB CRITERION; EARTHQUAKE MECHANISM; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; FORECASTING METHOD; PARAMETERIZATION; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; SEISMICITY; SHEAR STRESS; STRESS CHANGE; TRIGGER MECHANISM;

CALIFORNIA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84892529549     PISSN: 21699313     EISSN: 21699356     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2013JB010313     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. Andrews, D., D. Oppenheimer, and, J. Lienkaemper, (1993), The Mission link between the Hayward and Calaveras Faults, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 12,083-12,095.
2. Beroza, G. C., (1991), Near-source modeling of the Loma Prieta earthquake: Evidence for heterogeneous slip and implications for earthquake hazard, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 81, 1603-1621.
3. Beroza, G. C., and, P. Spudich, (1988), Linearized inversion for fault rupture behavior: Application to the 1984, Morgan Hill, California, earthquake, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 6275-6296.
4. Beroza, G. C., and, M. D. Zoback, (1993), Mechanism diversity of the Loma Prieta aftershocks and the mechanics of mainshock-aftershock interaction, Science, 259, 210-213. (Pubitemid 23388732)
5. Cocco, M., S. Hainzl, F. Catalli, B. Enescu, A. M. Lombardi, and, J. Woessner, (2010), Sensitivity study of forecasted aftershock seismicity based on Coulomb stress calculation and rate- and state-dependent frictional response, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B05307, doi: 10.1029/2009JB006838.
6. Dieterich, J., (1994), A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 2601-2618. (Pubitemid 24425347)
7. Dietz, L. D., and, W. L. Ellsworth, (1990), The October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, California, earthquake and its aftershocks: Geometry of the sequence from high-resolution locations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 1417-1420.
8. Dietz, L. D., and, W. L. Ellsworth, (1997), Aftershocks of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and their tectonic implications, in The Loma Prieta, California Earthquake of October 17, 1989-Aftershocks and Post-Seismic Effects, Profess. Pap. 1550-D, edited by, P. A. Reasenberg, pp. D5-D47, U.S. Geol. Surv., Menlo Park, Calif. (Pubitemid 29184527)
9. Enescu, B., J. Mori, M. Miyazawa, and, Y. Kano, (2009), Omori-Utsu law c-values associated with recent moderate earthquakes in Japan, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 99, 884-891.
10. Felzer, K., (2008), Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, Appendix I: Calculating California seismicity rates, USGS Open File Report 2007-1437I, 41 pp., Pasadena, Calif.
11. Field, E. H., et al. (2009), Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2), Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 99, 2053-2107, doi: 10.1785/0120080049.
12. Geist, E. L., and, D. J. Andrews, (2000), Slip rates on San Francisco Bay area faults from anelastic deformation of the continental lithosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 25,543-25,552.
13. Hainzl, S., B. Enescu, M. Cocco, J. Woessner, F. Catalli, R. Wang, and, F. Roth, (2009), Aftershock modeling based on uncertain stress calculations, J. Geophys. Res., 114, B05309, doi: 10.1029/2008JB006011.
14. Hanks, T., and, H. Kanamori, (1979), A moment magnitude scale, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 2348-2350, doi: 10.1029/JB084iB05p02348.
15. Hardebeck, J. L., (2013), Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, Appendix S: Constraining ETAS parameters from the UCERF3 catalog and validating the ETAS model for M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes, 24 pp.
16. Hardebeck, J. L., and, A. J. Michael, (2004), Stress orientations at intermediate angles to the San Andreas Fault, California, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B11303, doi: 10.1029/2004JB003239.
17. Harris, R. A., and, R. W. Simpson, (1996), In the Shadow of 1857-The effect of the Great Ft. Tejon earthquake on subsequent earthquakes in Southern California, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 229-232.
18. Harte, D., and, D. Vere-Jones, (2005), The entropy score and its uses in earthquake forecasting, Pure Appl. Geophys., 162 (6-7), 1229-1253. (Pubitemid 40782255)
19. Helmstetter, A., (2003), Is earthquake triggering driven by small earthquakes?, Phys. Rev. Lett., 91 (5), 058,501, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.91. 058501.
20. Helmstetter, A., and, D. Sornette, (2002), Subcritical and supercritical regimes in epidemic models of earthquake aftershocks, J. Geophys. Res., 107 (B10), 2237, doi: 10.1029/2001JB001580.
21. Helmstetter, A., Y. Y. Kagan, and, D. D. Jackson, (2005), Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfer and earthquake triggering, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B05S08, doi: 10.1029/2004JB003286.
22. Herd, D. G., (1979), Neotectonic framework of central coastal California and its implications to microzonation of the San Francisco Bay region, U.S. Geol. Surv. Circ., 807, 3-12.
23. Jordan, T. H., and, L. M. Jones, (2010), Operational earthquake forecasting: Some thoughts on why and how, Seismol. Res. Lett., 81, 571-574, doi: 10.1785/gssrl.81.4.571.
24. Jordan, T. H., Y. T. Chen, P. Gasparini, R. Madariaga, I. Main, W. Marzocchi, G. Papadopoulos, G. Sobolev, K. Yamaoka, and, J. Zschau, (2011), Operational earthquake forecasting. State of knowledge and guidelines for utilization, Ann. Geophys., 54 (4), doi: 10.4401/ag-5350.
25. Kagan, Y. Y., and, L. Knopoff, (1977), Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 14, 97-108.
26. Kilb, D., M. Ellis, J. Gomberg, and, S. Davis, (1997), On the origin of diverse aftershock mechanisms 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, Geophys. J. Int., 128, 557-570.
27. King, G. C. P., R. S. Stein, and, J. Lin, (1994), Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84 (3), 935-953.
28. Lachenbruch, A. H., and, J. H. Sass, (1980), Heat flow and energetics of the San Andreas Fault zone, J. Geophys. Res., 85, 6185-6222.
29. Lombardi, A. M., and, W. Marzocchi, (2010), The assumption of Poisson seismic-rate variability in CSEP/RELM experiments, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 100, 2293-2300, doi: 10.1785/0120100012.
30. Manaker, D., A. Michael, and, R. Bürgmann, (2005), Subsurface structure and kinematics of the Calaveras-Hayward fault stepover from three-dimensional Vp and seismicity, San Francisco Bay region, California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 95, 446-470, doi: 10.1785/0120020202. (Pubitemid 40801261)
31. Marsan, D., (2005), The role of small earthquakes in redistributing crustal elastic stress, Geophys. J. Int., 163, 141-151, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02700.x. (Pubitemid 43922825)
32. Marzocchi, W., and, A. M. Lombardi, (2008), A double branching model for earthquake occurrence, J. Geophys. Res., 113, B08317, doi: 10.1029/2007JB005472.
33. Marzocchi, W., J. D. Zechar, and, T. H. Jordan, (2012), Bayesian forecast evaluation and ensemble earthquake forecasting, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 102 (6), 2574-2584, doi: 10.1785/0120110327.
34. Mount, V. S., and, J. Suppe, (1992), Present-day stress orientations adjacent to active strike-slip faults: California and Sumatra, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 11,995-12,013, doi: 10.1029/92JB00130.
35. Mueller, R. J., and, M. J. S. Johnston, (2000), Co-seismic and post-seismic deformation along the San Andreas Fault south of the October 18, 1989, Loma Prieta M7.1 Earthquake Rupture, US Geological Survey Open File Report, 00-146, 35 pp.
36. Murray-Moraleda, J. R., and, R. W. Simpson, (2009), Geodetically inferred coseismic ad postseismic slip due to the M5.4 31 October 2007 Alum Rock earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 99 (5), 2784-2800.
37. Nanjo, K. Z., et al. (2012), Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: First results, Geophys. J. Int., 191 (2), 653-658.
38. Ogata, Y., (1988), Statistical models for earthquake occurrence and residual analysis for point processes, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 83, 9-27.
39. Ogata, Y., (1998), Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences, Ann. Inst. Stat. Math., 50, 379-402. (Pubitemid 128487986)
40. Ogata, Y., and, J. Zhuang, (2006), Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, 413, 13-23, doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2005.10.016. (Pubitemid 43116242)
41. Oppenheimer, D. H., (1990), Aftershock slip behavior of the 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 898-916.
42. Parsons, T., (2002), Post-1906 stress recovery of the San Andreas Fault system from 3-D finite element analysis, J. Geophys. Res., 107 (B8), 2162, doi: 10.1029/2001JB001051.
43. Parsons, T., R. S. Stein, R. W. Simpson, and, P. A. Reasenberg, (1999), Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity: A comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 20,183-20,202.
44. Parsons, T., Y. Ogata, J. Zhuang, and, E. L. Geist, (2012), Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests, Geophys. J. Int., 188, 1425-1440, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05343.x.
45. Reasenberger, P., (1985), Second-order moment of central California seismicity, 1969-1982, J. Geophys. Res., 90 (B7), 5479-5495, doi: 10.1029/JB090iB07p05479.
46. Reasenberg, P., and, D. Oppenheimer, (1985), FPFIT, FPPLOT, and FPPAGE: Fortran computer programs for calculating and displaying earthquake fault-plane solutions, Technical report 85-739, 109 pp., U.S. Geol. Survey.
47. Reasenberg, P. A., and, R. W. Simpson, (1992), Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake, Science, 255, 1687-1690.
48. Rhoades, D. A., (2007), Application of the EEPAS model to forecasting earthquakes of moderate magnitude in Southern California, Seismol. Res. Lett., 78 (1), 110-115.
49. Rhoades, D. A., (2013), Mixture models for improved earthquake forecasting with short-to-medium time horizons, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 103 (4), 2208-2215.
50. Rhoades, D. A., D. Schorlemmer, M. C. Gerstenberger, A. Christophersen, J. D. Zechar, and, M. Imoto, (2011), Efficient testing of earthquake forecasting models, Acta Geophys., 59, 728-747, doi: 10.2478/s11600-011-0013-5.
51. Rice, J. R., (1992), Fault stress states, pore pressure distributions, and the weakness of the San Andreas Fault, in Fault Mechanics and Transport Properties of Rocks: A Festschrift in Honor of W. F. Brace, edited by, B. Evans, and, T. Wong, pp. 475-503, Academic Press, San Diego, Calif.
52. Saichev, A., and, D. Sornette, (2005), Vere-Jones' self-similar branching model, Phys. Rev. E, 72, 056,122.
53. Saichev, A., and, D. Sornette, (2006), Renormalization of branching models of triggered seismicity from total to observable seismicity, Eur. Phys. J. B, 51, 443-459. (Pubitemid 43952786)
54. Schorlemmer, D., M. C. Gerstenberger, S. Wiemer, D. D. Jackson, and, D. A. Rhoades, (2007), Earthquake likelihood model testing, Seismol. Res. Lett., 78 (1), 17-29, doi: 10.1785/gssrl.78.1.17.
55. Smith, B., and, D. T. Sandwell, (2003), Coulomb stress along the San Andreas Fault system, J. Geophys. Res., 108 (B6), 2296, doi: 10.1029/2002JB002136.
56. Smith-Konter, B., and, D. T. Sandwell, (2009), Stress evolution of the San Andreas Fault System: Recurrence interval versus locking depth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L13304, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037235.
57. Sornette, D., and, M. J. Werner, (2005a), Constraints on the size of the smallest triggering earthquake from the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, Båth's law, and observed aftershock sequences, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B08304, doi: 10.1029/2004JB003535.
58. Sornette, D., and, M. J. Werner, (2005b), Apparent clustering and apparent background earthquakes biased by undetected seismicity, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B09303, doi: 10.1029/2005JB003621.
59. Steacy, S., S. S. Nalbant, J. McCloskey, C. Nostro, O. Scotti, and, D. Baumont, (2005), Onto what planes should Coulomb stress perturbations be resolved?, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B05S15, doi: 10.1029/2004JB003356.
60. Steacy, S., M. Gerstenberger, C. Williams, D. Rhoades, and, A. Christophersen, (2013), A new hybrid Coulomb/statistical model for forecasting earthquake rates, Geophys. J. Int., doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt404.
61. Stein, R. S., (1999), The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence, Nature, 402, 605-609.
62. Stein, R. S., A. A. Barka, and, J. H. Dieterich, (1997), Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering, Geophys. J. Int., 128, 594-604.
63. Toda, S., R. S. Stein, K. Richards-Dinger, and, S. Bozkurt, (2005), Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in Southern California: Animations built on earthquake stress transfer, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B05S16, doi: 10.1029/2004JB003415.
64. Townend, J., (2006), What do faults feel? Observational constraints on the stresses acting on seismogenic faults, in Earthquakes: Radiated Energy and the Physics of Faulting, AGU Monograph Series, vol. 170, edited by, R. Abercrombie, et al., pp. 313-327, AGU, Washington, D. C., USA.
65. Utsu, T., (1961), A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks, Geophys. Mag., 30, 521-605.
66. Waldhauser, F., and, D. P. Schaff, (2008), Large-scale relocation of two decades of Northern California seismicity using cross-correlation and double-difference methods, J. Geophys. Res., 113, B08311, doi: 10.1029/2007JB005479.
67. Wells, D. L., and, K. J. Coppersmith, (1994), New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84, 974-1002.
68. Werner, M. J., (2008), On the fluctuations of seismicity and uncertainties in earthquake catalogs: Implications and methods for hypothesis testing, PhD thesis, 308 pp., University of California Los Angeles.
69. Werner, M. J., and, D. Sornette, (2008), Magnitude uncertainties impact seismic rate estimates, forecasts, and predictability experiments, J. Geophys. Res., 113, B08302, doi: 10.1029/2007JB005427.
70. Werner, M. J., J. D. Zechar, W. Marzocchi, S. Wiemer, and the CSEP-Italy Working Group (2010), Retrospective evaluation of the five-year and ten-year CSEP-Italy earthquake forecasts, Ann. Geophys., 53 (3), 11-30.
71. Werner, M. J., A. Helmstetter, D. D. Jackson, and, Y. Y. Kagan, (2011), High-resolution long-term and short-term earthquake forecasts for California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 101, 1630-1648.
72. Woessner, J., S. Hainzl, W. Marzocchi, M. J. Werner, A. M. Lombardi, F. Catalli, B. Enescu, M. Cocco, M. C. Gerstenberger, and, S. Wiemer, (2011), A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992 Landers sequence, J. Geophys. Res., B05305, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007846.
73. Zechar, J. D., M. C. Gerstenberger, and, D. A. Rhoades, (2010), Likelihood-based tests for evaluating space-rate-magnitude earthquake forecasts, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 100, 1184-1195, doi: 10.1785/0120090192.
74. Zhuang, J., Y. Ogata, and, D. Vere-Jones, (2002), Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 97, 369-380.