Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California: Animations built on earthquake stress transfer

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Volumn 110, Issue 5, 2005, Pages 1-17

  Toda, Shinji ^a   Stein, Ross S ^b   Richards Dinger, Keith ^c   Bozkurt, Serkan B ^b  

^a NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ADVANCED INDUSTRIAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AIST   (Japan)

^b U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^c NAVAL AIR WARFARE CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE; FORECASTING METHOD; SEISMICITY; STRESS ANALYSIS;

CALIFORNIA; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES; WESTERN HEMISPHERE; WORLD;

EID: 22944484727     PISSN: 21699313     EISSN: 21699356     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2004JB003415     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. s= 7.2), California earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 20(2), 97-100.
2. Beeler, N. M., R. W. Simpson, S. H. Hickman, and D. A. Lockner (2000), Pore fluid pressure, apparent friction, and Coulomb failure, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 25,533-25,542.
3. Cocco, M., and J. R. Rice (2002), Pore pressure and poroelasticity effects in Coulomb stress analysis of earthquake interactions, J. Geophys. Res., 107(B2), 2030, doi:10.1029/2000JB000138.
4. Dieterich, J. (1994), A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 2601-2618.
5. Dieterich, J. H., and B. Kilgore (1996), Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 93, 3787-3794.
6. Felzer, K. R., and E. Brodsky (2005), Testing the stress shadow hypothesis, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B05S09, doi:10.1029/ 2004JB003277.
7. w 7.3 Landers earthquake, J. Geophys. Res., 107(B9),2190, doi:10.1029/ 2001JB000911.
8. Freed, A. (2005), Earthquake triggering by static, dynamic, and postseismic stress transfer, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 33, doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.33.092203.122505.
9. Freed, A. M., and J. Lin (2002), Accelerated stress buildup on the southern San Andreas fault and surrounding regions caused by Mojave Desert earthquakes, Geology, 30, 571-574.
10. Gomberg, J., N. M. Beeler, M. L. Blanpied, and P. Bodin (1998), Earthquake triggering by transient and static deformations, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 24,411-24,426.
11. Gomberg, J., P. Bodin, and P. A. Reasenberg (2003), Observing earthquakes triggered in the near field by dynamic deformations, Bull, Seismol. Soc. Am., 93, 118-138.
12. Hardebeck, J. L., and E. Hauksson (2001), Crustal stress field in southern California and its implications for fault mechanics, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 21,859-21,882.
13. Harris, R. A. (1998), Introduction to special section: Stress triggers, stress shadows, and implications for seismic hazard, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 24,347-24,358.
14. w 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake: A test of the stress shadow hypothesis?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 1497-1512.
15. Hauksson, E. (1994), State of stress from focal mechanisms before and after the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84, 917-934.
16. Hill, R. L., and D. J. Beeby (1977), Surface faulting associated with the 5.2 magnitude Galway Lake earthquake of May 31, 1975: Mojave Desert, San Bernadino County, California, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 88, 1378-1384.
17. Hudnut, K. W., and S. C. Larsen (1993), Slip distribution in the 1992 Landers, Calif., earthquake sequence determined from geodetic data, Eos Trans. AGU, 74(43), Fall Meet. Suppl., 183.
18. Hudnut, K. W., et al. (1994), Co-seismic displacements of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84, 625-645.
19. Ji, C., D. J. Wald, and D. V. Helmberger (2002a), Source description of the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake: part I, Wavelet domain inversion theory and resolution analysis, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 1192-1207.
20. Ji, C., D. J. Wald, and D. V. Helmberger (2002b), Source description of the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake: part II, Complexity of slip history, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 1208-1226.
21. Jones, L. E., and S. E. Hough (1995), Analysis of broadband records from the June 28, 1992 Big Bear earthquake: Evidence of a multiple-event source, Bull Seismol. Soc. Am., 85, 688-704.
22. Jonsson, S., P. Segall, R. Pedersen, and G. Bjornsson (2003), Post-earthquake ground movements correlated to pore-pressure transients, Nature, 424, 179-182.
23. Kilb, D. (2003), A strong correlation between induced peak dynamic Coulomb stress change from the 1992 M7.3 Landers, California, earthquake and the hypocenter of the 1999 M7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B1), 2012, doi:10.1029/2001JB000678.
24. Kilb, D., J. Gomberg, and P. Bodin (2000), Earthquake triggering by dynamic stresses, Nature, 408, 570-574.
25. King, G. C. P., and M. Cocco (2000), Fault interaction by elastic stress changes: New clues from earthquake sequences, Adv. Geophys., 44, 1-36.
26. King, G. C. P., R. S. Stein, and J. Lin (1994), Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84, 935-953.
27. King, N. E., D. C. Agnew, and F. Wyatt (1988), Comparing strain events: A case study for the Homestead Valley earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 78(5), 1693-1706.
28. Lindh, A., G. Fuis, and C. Mantis (1978), Seismic amplitude measurements suggest foreshocks have different focal mechanisms than aftershocks, Science, 201, 56-59.
29. Marsan, D. (2003), Triggering of seismicity at short timescales following Californian earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B5), 2266, doi:10.1029/2002JB001946.
30. 2 source at depth, Nature, 427, 724-727.
31. Ogata, Y. (1988), Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 83, 9-27.
32. Pacheco, J., and J. Nábelek (1988), Source mechanisms of three moderate California earthquakes of July 1986, Bull, Seismol. Soc. Am. 78, 1907-1929.
33. Parsons, T. (2002), Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone, J. Geophys. Res., 107(B9), 2199, doi:10.1029/2001JB000646.
34. Parsons, T., and D. S. Dreger (2000), Static-stress impact of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence on nucleation and slip at the site of the 1999 M= 7.1 Hector Mine eathquake, southern California, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1949-1952.
35. Parsons, T., R. S. Stein, R. W. Simpson, and P. A. Reasenberg (1999), Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity: A comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 20,183-20,202
36. Parsons, T., S. Toda, R. S. Stein, A. Barka, and J. H. Dieterich (2000), Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation, Science, 288, 661-665.
37. Peltzer, G., P. Rosen, F. Rogez, and K. Hudnut (1996), Postseismic rebound in fault step-overs caused by pore fluid flow, Science, 273, 1202-1204.
38. Peltzer, G., P. Rosen, and K. Hudnut (1998), Poroelastic rebound along the Landers 1992 earthquake surface rupture, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 30,131-30,145.
39. Peltzer, G., F. Crampe, S. Hensley, and P. Rosen (2001), Transient strain accumulation and fault interaction in the eastern California shear zone, Geology, 29, 975-978.
40. Pollitz, F., C. Wicks, and W. Thatcher (2001), Mantle flow beneath a continental strike-slip fault: Postseismic deformation after the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake, Science, 293, 1814-1818.
41. Pollitz, F., W. H. Bakun, and M. Nyst (2004), A physical model for strain accumulation in the San Francisco Bay region: Stress evolution since 1838, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B11408, doi:10.1029/ 2004JB003003.
42. Richards-Dinger, K. B., and P. M. Shearer (2000), Earthquake locations in southern California obtained using source-specific station terms, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 10,939-10,960.
43. s= 7.5), J. Geophys. Res., 98, 19,951-19,958.
44. Savage, J. C., W. Gan, and J. L. Svarc (2001), Strain accumulation and rotation in the eastern California shear zone, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 21,995-22,007.
45. Steacy, S., D. Marsan, S. S. Nalbant, and J. McCloskey (2004), Sensitivity of static stress calculations to the earthquake slip distribution, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B04303, doi:10.1029/ 2002JB002365.
46. Stein, R. S. (1999), The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence, Nature, 402, 605-609.
47. Stein, R. S., and M. Lisowski (1983), The 1979 Homestead Valley earthquake sequence, California: Control of aftershocks and postseismic deformation, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 6477-6490.
48. Stein, R. S., A. A. Barka, and J. H. Dieterich (1997), Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering, Geophys. J. Int., 128, 594-604.
49. Tanaka, S., M. Ohtake, and H. Sato (2004), Tidal triggering of earthquakes in Japan related to the regional tectonic stress, Earth Planets Space, 56, 511-515.
50. Toda, S., and R. S. Stein (2002), Response of the San Andreas fault to the 1983 Coalinga-Nuñez earthquakes: An application of interaction-based probabilities for Parkfield, J. Geophys. Res., 107 (B6), 2126, doi:10.1029/2001JB000172.
51. Toda, S., and R. Stein (2003), Toggling of seismicity by the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet: A demonstration of time-dependent stress transfer, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B12), 2567, doi:10.1029/ 2003JB002527.
52. w= 6.5 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 24,543-24,565.
53. Townend, J., and M. D. Zoback (2004), Regional tectonic stress near the San Andreas fault in central and southern California, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L15S11, doi:10.1029/2003GL018918.
54. Wald, D. J., and T. H. Heaton (1994), Spatial and temporal distribution of slip for the 1992 Landers, California earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84, 668-691.
55. Wiemer, S. (2001), A software package to analyse seismicity: ZMAP, Seismol. Res. Lett., 72(3), 373-382.
56. w7.1 Hector Mine earthquake: Implications for aftershock hazard, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 1227-1240.
57. Woessner, J., E. Hauksson, S. Wiemer, and S. Neukomm, (2004), The 1997 Kagoshima (Japan) earthquake doublet: A quantitative analysis of aftershock rate changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L03605, doi:10.1029/2003GL018858.