Operational earthquake forecasting: Some thoughts on why and how

Seismological Research Letters

Volumn 81, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 571-574

  Jordan, Thomas H ^a   Jones, Lucile M ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 77955627938     PISSN: 08950695     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1785/gssrl.81.4.571     Document Type: Note

References (8)

1. Agnew, D., and L. M. Jones (1991). Prediction probabilities from foreshocks. Journal of Geophysical Research 96, 11,959-11,971.
2. Bakun, W. H., K. S. Breckenridge, J. Bredehoeft, R. O. Burford, W. L. Ellsworth, M. J. S. Johnston, L. Jones, A. G. Lindh, C. Mortensen, R J. Mueller, C. M. Poley, E. Roeloffs, S. Schulz, P. Segall, and W. Thatcher (1987). Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Scenarios and Response Plans. USGS Open File Report 87-192.
3. Field, E. H., T. E. Dawson, K. R. Felzer, A. D. Frankel, V. Gupta, T. H. Jordan, T. Parsons, M. D. Petersen, R. S. Stein, R. J. Weldon II, and C. J. Wills (2009). Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 99, 2,053-2,107; doi:10.1785/0120080049.
4. Gerstenberger, M. C., L. M. Jones, and S. Wiemer (2007). Short-term aftershock probabilities: Case studies in California. Seismological Research Letters 78, 66-77; doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.4.66.
5. Jordan, T. H., Y.-T. Chen, P. Gasparini, R. Madariaga, I. Main, W. Marzocchi, G. Papadopoulos, G. Sobolev, K. Yamaoka, and J. Zschau (2009). Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Implementation. Findings and Recommendations of the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection, released by the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Rome, Italy, 2 October, 2009.
6. Michael, A. J. (2010). Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, in press.
7. Murphy, A. H. (1993). What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather and Forecasting 8, 281-293.
8. Southern San Andreas Working Group (1991). Short-Term Earthquake Hazard Assessment for the San Andreas Fault in Southern California USGS Open File Report 91-132