El niño physics and el niño predictability

Annual Review of Marine Science

Volumn 6, Issue , 2014, Pages 79-99

  Clarke, Allan J ^a  

^a FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

ENSO engine; ENSO predictions; Southern Oscillation

Indexed keywords

EASTERN EDGE; ENSO EVENTS; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC; OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE; PHASE-LOCKING; SEASONAL CYCLE; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; YEAR-TO-YEAR CLIMATE VARIABILITIES;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE;

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PREDICTION; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (EQUATORIAL);

SEA WATER;

ARTICLE; CHEMISTRY; CLIMATE; EL NINO; FORECASTING; OCEANOGRAPHY; SEA; SEASON;

CLIMATE; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; FORECASTING; OCEANOGRAPHY; OCEANS AND SEAS; SEASONS; SEAWATER;

EID: 84891877605     PISSN: 19411405     EISSN: 19410611     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1146/annurev-marine-010213-135026     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. An S-I, Jin F-F. 2004. Nonlinearity and asymmetry of ENSO. J. Clim. 17:2399-412
2. Barnett TP. 1983. Interaction of the monsoon and Pacific trade wind system at interannual time scales. Part I: The equatorial zone. Mon. Weath. Rev. 111:756-73
3. Barnston AG, Tippett MK, L'Heureux ML, Li S, DeWitt DG. 2012. Skill of real-Time seasonal ENSO model predictions during 2002-11. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93:631-51
4. Battisti DS, Hirst AC. 1989. Interannual variability in a tropical atmosphere-ocean model: Influence of the basic state, ocean geometry and nonlinearity. J. Atmos. Sci. 46:1687-712
5. Bjerknes J. 1969. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Weath. Rev. 97:163-72
6. Bunge L, Clarke AJ. 2009. A verified estimation of the ElNïno indexNINO3.4 since 1877. J. Clim. 22:3979-92
7. Bunge L, Clarke AJ. 2013. On the warm water volume and its changing relationship with ENSO. J. Phys. Oceanogr. In review
8. Cane MA, Zebiak SE. 1985. A theory for El Nïno and Southern Oscillation. Science 228:1084-87
9. Clarke AJ. 1994. Why are surface equatorial winds anomalously westerly under anomalous large-scale convection? J. Clim. 7:1623-27
10. Clarke AJ. 2008. An Introduction to the Dynamics of El Nïno and the Southern Oscillation. London: Academic
11. Clarke AJ. 2010. Analytical theory for the quasi-steady and low-frequency equatorial ocean response to wind forcing: The tilt and warm water volume modes. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 40:121-37
12. Clarke AJ, Lebedev A. 1996. Long-Term changes in the equatorial Pacific trade winds. J. Clim. 9:1020-29
13. Clarke AJ, Van Gorder S. 2001. ENSO prediction using an ENSO trigger and a proxy for western equatorial Pacific warm pool movement. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28:579-82
14. Clarke AJ, Van Gorder S. 2003. Improving El Nïno prediction using a space-Time integration of Indo-Pacific winds and equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30:1399
15. Clarke AJ, Van Gorder S, Colantuono G. 2007. Wind stress curl and ENSO discharge/recharge in the equatorial Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 37:1077-91
16. Clarke AJ, Wang J, Van Gorder S. 2000. A simple warm-pool displacement ENSO model. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 30:1679-91
17. Delcroix T, Dewitte B, duPenhoat Y, Masia F, Picaut J. 2000. Equatorial waves and warm pool displacements during the 1992-1998 El Nïno Southern Oscillation events: Observation and modeling. J. Geophys. Res. 105:26045-62
18. Deser C, Wallace JM. 1990. Large-scale atmospheric circulation features of warm and cold episodes in the tropical Pacific. J. Clim. 3:1254-81
19. Ebisuzaki W. 1997. A method to estimate the statistical significance of a correlation when the data are serially correlated. J. Clim. 10:2147-53
20. Fu C, Diaz HF, Fletcher JO. 1986. Characteristics of the response of sea surface temperature in the central Pacific associated with warm episodes of the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weath. Rev. 114:1716-38
21. Gadgil S, Joseph PV, Joshi NV. 1984. Ocean-Atmosphere coupling over monsoon regions. Nature 312:141-43
22. Gill AE. 1983. An estimation of sea-level and surface-current anomalies during the 1972 El Nïno and consequent thermal effects. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 13:586-606
23. Gill AE, Clarke AJ. 1974. Wind-induced upwelling, coastal currents and sea-level changes. Deep-Sea Res. 21:325-45
24. Gill AE, Rasmusson EM. 1983. The 1982-83 climate anomaly in the equatorial Pacific. Nature 306:229-34
25. Graham NE, Barnett TP. 1987. Sea surface temperature, surface wind divergence and convection over tropical oceans. Science 238:657-59
26. Gutzler DS, Harrison DE. 1987. The structure and evolution of seasonal wind anomalies over the nearequatorial eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans. Mon. Weath. Rev. 115:169-92
27. Harrison DE. 1987. Monthly mean island surface winds in the central tropical Pacific and El Nïno events. Mon. Weath. Rev. 115:3133-45
28. Harrison DE, Vecchi GA. 1999. On the termination of El Nïno. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26:1593-96
29. Horii T, Ueki I, Hanawa K. 2012. Breakdown of ENSO predictors in the 2000s: Decadal changes of recharge/discharge-SST phase relation and atmospheric intraseasonal forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39:L10707
30. Izumo T, Vialard J, Lengaigne M, Montégut CDB, Behera SK, et al. 2010. Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean dipole on the following year's El Nïno. Nat. Geosci. 3:168-72
31. Jin EK, Kinter JL III, Wang B, Park C-K, Kang I-S, et al. 2008. Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-Atmosphere models. Clim. Dyn. 31:647-64
32. Jin F-F. 1997a. An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: Conceptual model. J. Atmos. Sci. 54:811-29
33. Jin F-F. 1997b. An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part II: A stripped-down coupled model. J. Atmos. Sci. 54:830-47
34. Jin F-F, An S-I. 1999. Thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks within the equatorial ocean recharge oscillator model for ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26:2989-92
35. Kessler WS. 1990. Observations of long Rossbywaves in the northern tropical Pacific. J. Geophys. Res. 95:5183-217
36. Kessler WS. 2002. Is ENSO a cycle or a series of events? Geophys. Res. Lett. 29:2125
37. Lagerloef GSE, Lukas R, Bonjean F, Gunn JT, Mitchum GT, et al. 2003. El Nïno Tropical Pacific Ocean surface current and temperature evolution in 2002 and outlook for early 2003. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30:1514
38. Lengaigne M, Boulanger J-P, Menkes C, Spencer H. 2006. Influence of the seasonal cycle on the termination of El Nïno events in a coupled general circulation model. J. Clim. 19:1850-68
39. McPhaden MJ. 2012. A 21st century shift in the relationship between ENSO SST and warm water volume anomalies. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39:L09706
40. McPhaden MJ, Picaut J. 1990. El Nïno-Southern Oscillation displacement of the western equatorial Pacific warm pool. Science 250:1385-88
41. Meehl GA. 1987. The annual cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. Mon. Weath. Rev. 115:27-50
42. Meinen CS, McPhaden MJ. 2000. Observations of warm water volume changes in the equatorial Pacific and their relationship to El Nïno and La Nïna. J. Clim. 13:3551-59
43. Neelin D. 1988. A simple model for surface stress and low level flow in the tropical troposphere driven by prescribed heating. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 114:747-70
44. Picaut J, Delcroix T. 1995. Equatorial wave sequence associated with warm pool displacements during the 1986-1989 El Nïno-La Nïna. J. Geophys. Res. 100:18393-408
45. Picaut J, Ioualalen M, Menkes C, Delcroix T, McPhaden MJ. 1996. Mechanism of the zonal displacements of the Pacific warm pool: Implications for ENSO. Science 274:1486-89
46. Picaut J, Masia F, du Penhoat Y. 1997. An advective-reflective conceptual model for the oscillatory nature of the ENSO. Science 277:663-66
47. Schopf PS. 1987. Coupled dynamics of the tropical ocean-Atmosphere system. In Further Progress in Equatorial Oceanography: U.S. TOGA Workshop on the Dynamics of the Equatorial Oceans, ed. EJ Katz, JM Witte, pp. 279-86. Fort Lauderdale, FL: Nova Univ. Press
48. Schopf PS, Suarez MJ. 1988. Vacillations in a coupled ocean-Atmosphere model. J. Atmos. Sci. 45:549-67
49. Shu L, Clarke AJ. 2002. Using an ocean model to examine ENSO dynamics. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 32:903-23
50. Spencer H. 2004. Role of the atmosphere in seasonal phase locking of El Nïno. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31:L24104
51. Suarez MJ, Schopf PS. 1988. A delayed action oscillator for ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci. 45:3283-87
52. Sud YC, Walker GK, Lau K-M. 1999. Mechanisms regulating sea-surface temperatures and deep convection in the tropics. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26:1019-22
53. Walker GT. 1924. Correlation in seasonal variations in weather, IX: A further study of world weather. Mem. Indian Meteorol. Dep. 24:275-332
54. Walker GT, Bliss EW. 1932. World weather V. Mem. R. Meteorol. Soc. 4:53-84
55. Walker GT, Bliss EW. 1937. World weather VI. Mem. R. Meteorol. Soc. 4:119-39
56. Wang W, McPhaden MJ. 2000. The surface-layer heat balance in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Part II. Interannual variability. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 30:2989-3008
57. Zebiak SE. 1989. Oceanic heat content variability and El Nïno cycles. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 19:475-86
58. Zebiak SE, Cane MA. 1987. A model El Nïno-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weath. Rev. 115:2262-78
59. Zhang C. 1993. Large-scale variability of atmospheric deep convection in relation to sea surface temperature in the tropics. J. Clim. 6:1898-913