Generalizing and transferring spatial models: A case study to predict Eurasian badger abundance in Atlantic Spain

Ecological Modelling

Volumn 275, Issue , 2014, Pages 1-8

  Acevedo, Pelayo ^a   González Quirós, Pablo ^b   Prieto, José M ^c   Etherington, Thomas R ^d   Gortázar, Christian ^e   Balseiro, Ana ^c  

^a CENTRO DE INVESTIGAÇÃO EM BIODIVERSIDADE E RECURSOS GENÉTICOS   (Portugal)

^b Biogestión   (Spain)

^c Servicio Regional de Investigación y Desarrollo Agroalimentario de Asturias   (Spain)

^d UNIVERSITY OF AUCKLAND   (New Zealand)

^e INSTITUTO DE INVESTIGACIÓN EN RECURSOS CINEGÉTICOS IREC CSIC UCLM JCCM   (Spain)

Author keywords

Bovine tuberculosis; Ecological modelling; Landscape ecology; Meles meles; Model generalization; Population abundance

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; ECOLOGY; MAMMALS;

BOVINE TUBERCULOSIS; ECOLOGICAL MODELLING; LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY; MELES MELES; MODEL GENERALIZATION; POPULATION ABUNDANCE;

PUBLISHING;

ABUNDANCE; ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; BACTERIUM; CALIBRATION; CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT; DECISION MAKING; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; EPIDEMIOLOGY; LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY; MUSTELID; PASTORALISM;

ATLANTIC COAST [EUROPE]; ATLANTIC COAST [SPAIN]; ENGLAND; IRELAND; SPAIN; UNITED KINGDOM; WALES;

EID: 84891639733     PISSN: 03043800     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.12.011     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Acevedo P., Farfán M.A., Márquez A.L., Delibes-Mateos M., Real R., Vargas J.M. Past, present and future of wild ungulates in relation to changes in land use. Landscape Ecol. 2011, 26:19-31.
2. Acevedo P., Jiménez-Valverde A., Lobo J.M., Real R. Delimiting the geographical background in species distribution modelling. J. Biogeogr. 2012, 39:1383-1390.
3. Akaike H. A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 1974, 19:716-723.
4. Balestrieri A., Remonti L., Prigioni C. Exploitation of food resources by the Eurasian badger (Meles meles) at the altitudinal limit of its Alpine range (NW Italy). Zool. Sci. 2009, 26:821-827.
5. Balseiro A., González-Quirós P., Rodríguez O., Copano M.F., Merediz I., de Juan L., et al. Spatial relationships between Eurasian badgers (Meles meles) and cattle infected with Mycobacterium bovis in Northern Spain. Vet. J. 2013, 10.1016/j.tvjl.2013.03.017.
6. Balseiro A., Rodríguez O., González-Quirós P., Merediz I., Sevilla I.A., Davé D., et al. Infection of Eurasian badgers (Meles meles) with Mycobacterium bovis and Mycobacterium avium complex in Spain. Vet. J. 2011, 190:e21-e25.
7. Barbosa A.M., Real R., Vargas J.M. Transferability of environmental favourability models in geographic space: the case of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in Portugal and Spain. Ecol. Modell. 2009, 220:747-754.
8. Barbosa A.M., Real R., Vargas J.M. Use of coarse-resolution models of species' distributions to guide local conservation inferences. Conserv. Biol. 2010, 24:1378-1387.
9. Bates D., Maechler M., Bolker B. lme4: Linear mixed-effects models using S4 classes. R package version 0.999999-0 2012, 2. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=lme4.
10. Bessell P.R., Orton R., White P.C.L., Hutchings M.R., Kao R.R. Risk factors for bovine tuberculosis at the national level in Great Britain. BMC Vet. Res. 2012, 8:51.
11. Bourne J., Donelly C.A., Cox D.R., Gettinby G., McInerney J.P., Morrison W.I., et al. Bovine TB: the scientific evidence. The final report of the independent scientific group on cattle TB 2007, Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London.
12. Boyce M.S., Vernier P.R., Nielsen S.E., Schmiegelow F.K.A. Evaluating resource selection functions. Ecol. Modell. 2002, 157:281-300.
13. Byrne A.W., O'Keeffe J., Green S., Sleeman D.P., Corner L.A.L., Gormley E., et al. Population estimation and trappability of the European Badger (Meles meles): implications for tuberculosis management. PLoS ONE 2012, 7:e50807. 10.1371/journalpone0050807.
14. Byrne A.W., Sleeman P., Ókeeffe J., Davenport J. The ecology of the European badger (Meles meles) in Ireland: a review. Biol. Environ. 2012, 1:105-132.
15. Campbell S.K. Flaws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking 2004, Dover Publications, Inc., New York.
16. Cheeseman C.L., Jones G.W., Gallagher J., Mallinson P.J. The population structure, density and prevalence of tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) in badgers (Meles meles) from four areas in south-west, England. J. Appl. Ecol. 1981, 18:795-804.
17. Chessel D., Dufour A.B., Thioulouse J. The ade4 package-I: one-table methods. R News 2004, 4:5-10.
18. Christensen R. Plane Answers to Complex Questions: The Theory of Linear Models 2002, Springer, New York. 3rd ed.
19. Clark J.D., Dunn J.E., Smith K.G. A multivariate model of female black bear habitat use for a geographic information system. J. Wildl. Manage. 1993, 57:519-526.
20. Clements E.D., Neal E.G., Yalden D.W. The national badger sett survey. Mamm. Rev. 1988, 18:1-9.
21. Da Silva J., Woodroffe R., MacDonald D.W. Habitat, food availability and group territoriality in the European badger, Meles meles. Oecologia 1993, 95:558-564.
22. de Leeuw A.N.S., Forrester G.J., Spyvee P.D., Brash M.G.I., Delahay R.J. Experimental comparison of ketamine with a combination of ketamine, butorphanol and medetomidine for general anesthesia of the Eurasian badger (Meles meles L.). Vet. J. 2004, 167:186-193.
23. Delahay R.J., Langton S., Smith G.C., Clifton-Hadley R.S., Cheeseman C.L. The spatio-temporal distribution of Mycobacterium bovis (bovine tuberculosis) infection in a high density badger (Meles meles) population. J. Anim. Ecol. 2000, 69:428-441.
24. Elith J., Kearney M., Phillips S. The art of modelling range-shifting species. Methods Ecol. Evol. 2010, 1:330-342.
25. Etherington T.R., Ward A.I., Smith G.C., Pietravalle S., Wilson G.J. Using the Mahalanobis distance statistic with unplanned presence-only survey data for biogeographical models of species distribution and abundance: a case study of badger setts. J. Biogeogr. 2009, 36:845-853.
26. Gilbert M., Mitchell A., Bourn D., Mawdsley J., Clifton-Hadley R., Wint W. Cattle movements and bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain. Nature 2005, 435(7041):491-496.
27. Gortázar C., Delahay R.J., McDonald R.A., Boadella M., Wilson G.J., Gavier-Widen D., et al. The status of tuberculosis in European wild mammals. Mamm. Rev. 2012, 42:193-206.
28. Griffin J.M., Williams D.H., Kelly G.E., Clegg T.A., O'Boyle I., Collins J.D., et al. The impact of badger removal on the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle herds in Ireland. Prev. Vet. Med. 2005, 67:237-266.
29. Guisan A., Tingley R., Baumgartner J.B., Naujokaitis-Lewis I., Sutcliffe P.S., Tulloch A.I.T., et al. Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions. Ecol. Lett. 2013, 10.1111/ele.12189.
30. Guisan A., Zimmerman N.E. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol. Modell. 2000, 135:147-186.
31. Hardstaff J.L., Bulling M.T., Marion G., Hutchings M.R., White P.C.L. Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations. BMC Vet. Res. 2012, 8:92.
32. Harris S., Cresswell P., Jefferies D. Surveying Badgers: An Occasional Publication of the Mammal Society 1989, vol. 9:29.
33. Heiberger R.M. HH: Statistical Analysis and Data Display: Heiberger and Holland R package version 2.3-27 2012, http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=HH.
34. Jiménez-Valverde A., Lobo J.M., Hortal J. Not as good as they seem: the importance of concepts in species distribution modelling. Divers. Distrib. 2008, 14:885-890.
35. Jiménez-Valverde A., Decae A.E., Arnedo M.A. Environmental suitability of new reported localities of the funnelweb spider Macrothele calpeiana: an assessment using potential distribution modelling with presence-only techniques. J. Biogeogr. 2011, 38:1213-1223.
36. Kruuk H., Parish T. Feeding specialization of the European badger Meles meles in Scotland. J. Anim. Ecol. 1991, 50:773-788.
37. Lara-Romero C., Virgós E., Revilla E. Sett density as an estimator of population density in the European badger Meles meles. Mamm. Rev. 2011, 42:78-84.
38. MacDonald D.W., Mitchelmore F., Bacon P.J. Predicting badger sett numbers: evaluating methods in East Sussex. J. Biogeogr. 1996, 23:649-655.
39. MacDonald D.W., Newman C. Badger population dynamics in Oxfordshire, UK: numbers, density and cohort life histories, and a possible role of climate change in population growth. J. Zool. 2002, 256:121-138.
40. Manly B.F.J. Randomization, Bootstrap, and Monte Carlo Methods in Biology 1997, Chapman and Hall, London. 2nd ed.
41. Molina-Vacas G., Bonet-Arboli V., Rafart-Plaza E., Rodriguez-Teijeiro J.D. Spatial ecology of European badgers (Meles meles) in Mediterranean habitats of the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula: home range size, spatial distribution and social organization. Vie Milieu 2009, 59:223-232.
42. Pain E. Research cuts will cause exodus from Spain. Science 2012, 336:139-140.
43. Peterson A.T., Ortega-Huerta M.A., Bartley J., Sánchez-Cordero V., Soberón J., Buddemeier R.H., et al. Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature 2002, 6881:626-629.
44. R Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing 2012, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. http://www.r-project.org/.
45. Randin C.F., Dirnböck T., Dullinger S., Zimmermann N.E., Zappa M., Guisan A. Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?. J. Biogeogr. 2006, 33:1689-1703.
46. Reid N., Etherington T., Wilson G. Badger survey of Northern Ireland 2007/08. Report prepared by Quercus and Central Science Laboratory for the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (DARD), Northern Ireland, UK 2008.
47. Reid N., Etherington T.R., Wilson G.J., Montgomery W.I., McDonald R.A. Monitoring and population estimation of the European badger Meles meles in Northern Ireland. Wildl. Biol. 2012, 18:46-57.
48. Revilla E., Palomares F. Spatial organization, group living and ecological correlates in low-density populations of Eurasian badgers, Meles meles. J. Anim. Ecol. 2002, 71:497-512.
49. Revilla E., Delibes M., Traviani A., Palomares F. Physical and population parameters of Eurasian badgers (Meles meles L.) from Mediterranean Spain. Z. Säugetierk 1999, 64:269-276.
50. Rogers L.M., Cheeseman C.L., Mallinson P.J., Clifton-Hadley R.S. The demography of a high density badger (Meles meles) population in the west of England. J. Zool. 1997, 242:705-728.
51. Smal C. The Badger and Habitat Survey of Ireland 1995, Government Stationery Office, Dublin.
52. Smith G.C., Richards M.S., Clifton-Hadley R.S., Cheeseman C.L. Modelling bovine tuberculosis in badgers in England: preliminary results. Mammalia 1995, 59:639-650.
53. Sobrino R., Acevedo P., Escudero M.A., Marco J., Gortázar C. Carnivore population trends in Spanish agrosystems after the reduction in food availability due to rabbit decline by rabbit haemorrhagic disease and improved waste management. Eur. J. Wildl. Res. 2009, 55:161-165.
54. Thuiller W., Brotons L., Araujo M.B., Lavorel S. Effects of restricting environmental range of data to project current and future species distributions. Ecography 2004, 27:165-172.
55. Tuyttens F.A.M., Long B., Fawcett T., Skinner A., Brown J.A., Cheeseman C.L., et al. Estimating group size and population density of Eurasian badgers Meles meles by quantifying latrine use. J. Appl. Ecol. 2001, 38:1114-1121.
56. Ward A.I., Smith G.C., Etherington T.R., Delahay R.J. Estimating the risk of cattle exposure to tuberculosis posed by wild deer relative to badgers in England and Wales. J. Wildl. Dis. 2009, 45:1104-1120.
57. Wickham H. ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis 2009, Springer, New York.
58. Woodroffe R., Donelly C.A., Wei G., Cox D.R., Bourne F.J., Burke T., et al. Social group size affects Mycobacterium bovis infection in European badgers (Meles meles). J. Anim. Ecol. 2009, 78:818-827.
59. Zinsstag J., Schelling E., Roth F., Kazwala R. Economics of bovine tuberculosis. Mycobacterium bovis Infection in Animals and Human 2006, 68-83. Wiley-Blackwell, New York. C.O. Thoen, J.H. Steele, M.J. Gilsdorf (Eds.).
60. Zuur A.F., Ieno E.N., Walker N., Saveliev A.A., Smith G.M. Mixed Effects Models and Extensions in Ecology with R 2009, Springer, New York.
61. Zuur A.F., Ieno E.N., Elphick C.S. A protocol for data exploration to avoid common statistical problems. Methods Ecol. Evol. 2010, 1:3-14.